Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Vincanws]

Avengers could be watched as a totally stand alone and be understood, which definitely helped contribute to its BO. AOU and CW are both too deep into the MCU plotlines to have that privilege; whoever said these movies are going to play more like the Harry Potter films from here on out was on the money.

I kind of disagree that they're too deep into plot lines with CW, I don't believe that's what the filmmakers were going for according to interviews, and it's not what I felt about the movie watching it. I could see CW as a stand alone and not care about the other MCU movies, but that's me.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Deadline is now predicting an $18M 4-day weekend for Civil War: http://deadline.com/2016/05/x-men-a...s-memorial-day-weekend-box-office-1201763668/

 

[JB33]

Deadline is now predicting an $18M 4-day weekend for Civil War: http://deadline.com/2016/05/x-men-a...s-memorial-day-weekend-box-office-1201763668/

Oh man....

 

[Kanon]

Deadline is now predicting an $18M 4-day weekend for Civil War: http://deadline.com/2016/05/x-men-a...s-memorial-day-weekend-box-office-1201763668/

It says $21.4M 4-day. Looks like Apocalypse is coming shorter than proyected, as Alice bombs a little harder as well, so maybe Angry Birds and CW will have a little more than expected

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

It says $21.4M 4-day. Looks like Apocalypse is coming shorter than proyected, as Alice bombs a little harder as well, so maybe Angry Birds and CW will have a little more than expected

No, 21,4M was in the previous Deadline update (8:30 AM Saturday). The latest update (Saturday 11:40 PM) says:

"Fourth place belongs to Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War which made $5.4M on Saturday, +32% over Friday for a fourth frame of $14.1M, -57%, 4-day of $18M and a running cume by the end of Monday of $375.5M."

 

[JKKS085]

Deadline is now predicting an $18M 4-day weekend for Civil War: http://deadline.com/2016/05/x-men-a...s-memorial-day-weekend-box-office-1201763668/

How is that even ... ??? Come on !!!
We went from 22 to 18 ? I know it has been an awful week end all around but this is another crazy drop. Now, if it gets there, it's gonna struggle to make it to 400M. Crazy ! It's dropping harder on Memorial Day week end than ASM2 (although with direct competition).

 

[Tymminator]

Sounds like the BO across the board was seriously hit. The holdovers fell short of predictions and the new stuff didn't really take at all.

 

[StormC]

I kind of disagree that they're too deep into plot lines with CW, I don't believe that's what the filmmakers were going for according to interviews, and it's not what I felt about the movie watching it. I could see CW as a stand alone and not care about the other MCU movies, but that's me.

The history with Bucky alone makes it near impossible without watching the previous Cap movies. That's not getting into stuff like Iron Man, who people know because of pop culture, but has no actual set up in the movie proper.

 

[gerrym51]

I suggest waiting for final numbers. these are estimates-not written n stone.

Different sites estimate differently

 

[JB33]

Sounds like the BO across the board was seriously hit. The holdovers fell short of predictions and the new stuff didn't really take at all.

Yeah, this is looking like an astoundingly weak Memorial Day weekend, but that doesn't really excuse Civil War in my opinion. I was looking for its first sub-50% drop but instead we got yet another over 50% drop (for its 3-day weekend, mind you).

Still have to wait for the final numbers though. An exact 50% drop for the 3-day weekend would be about $16,469,870. Let's see...

 

[Tymminator]

After the Warriors? I know plenty of dudes who will not be at the movies tomorrow.

 

[JB33]

After the Warriors? I know plenty of dudes who will not be at the movies tomorrow.

True. What a game, and I'm not even a basketball fan. The Raptors might have changed that for me as a Canadian, though.

 

[Iceman]

This is a terrible Memorial Day weekend for box office across the board.

 

[gerrym51]

overseas weekend-12.5 million of which China was 4 million.

next saturday is CW last day in China.

 

[JB33]

overseas weekend-12.5 million of which China was 4 million.

next saturday is CW last day in China.

Dropping like a rock. Last weekend was about $30M overseas.

 

[Vincanws]

The history with Bucky alone makes it near impossible without watching the previous Cap movies. That's not getting into stuff like Iron Man, who people know because of pop culture, but has no actual set up in the movie proper.

Near impossible? Okay.

Dropping like a rock. Last weekend was about $30M overseas.

I'll be happy for CW to reach somewhere between $1.1 and 1.2 billion WW. Seeing as that's what I put in the poll. It can drop like a rock all it wants.

 

[King Maxx]

Will this even reach 400M? I'm sure Marvel/Disney are disappointed with the final gross since they gave this an avengers-sized budget/marketing. They really need to rethink this whole cinematic universe thing as movies like CW have a hard time bringing in new audiences. I'm scared from IW: Part 1 & 2 .

 

[Raiden]

Civil War is the 4th MCU movie that grossed over a billion and only the second one that also has 90% RT score to show for. It has achieved what it set out to do. Stop sounding like it's all gloom and doom just because it can't do AOU numbers.

 

[StormC]

They really need to rethink this whole cinematic universe thing as movies like CW have a hard time bringing in new audiences. I'm scared from IW: Part 1 & 2 .

Typical for a box office thread.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I still think it gets to 400 dom. Now how much 400 is still the question. Most likely low 400s.

 

[Iceman]

Will this even reach 400M? I'm sure Marvel/Disney are disappointed with the final gross since they gave this an avengers-sized budget/marketing. They really need to rethink this whole cinematic universe thing as movies like CW have a hard time bringing in new audiences. I'm scared from IW: Part 1 & 2 .

This 'cinematic universe thing' is one of the main reasons a Cap movie is making $400m dom and $1.1B.

 

[Vincanws]

Will this even reach 400M? I'm sure Marvel/Disney are disappointed with the final gross since they gave this an avengers-sized budget/marketing. They really need to rethink this whole cinematic universe thing as movies like CW have a hard time bringing in new audiences. I'm scared from IW: Part 1 & 2 .

The movie's on its way to making over $1.1 billion WW, it's #1 WW and DOM for the year by a wide margin and the 4th highest grossing CBM of all time just below Iron Man 3, Avengers and Avengers 2, but Disney/Marvel are somehow disappointed?

 

[daddydivine]

Will this even reach 400M? I'm sure Marvel/Disney are disappointed with the final gross since they gave this an avengers-sized budget/marketing. They really need to rethink this whole cinematic universe thing as movies like CW have a hard time bringing in new audiences. I'm scared from IW: Part 1 & 2 .

Always that one guy...

 

[bubbadoom]

Will this even reach 400M? I'm sure Marvel/Disney are disappointed with the final gross since they gave this an avengers-sized budget/marketing. They really need to rethink this whole cinematic universe thing as movies like CW have a hard time bringing in new audiences. I'm scared from IW: Part 1 & 2 .

Being less than $30 million away how can it not...?

Don't be scared for IW - its going to do just fine...

 

[gerrym51]

Being less than $30 million away how can it not...?

Don't be scared for IW - its going to do just fine...

bubbadoom-go to box office mojo and look at IM 3 dailies. its 50/50 it won't reach 400 million.

after tomorrow it will take a long time to get that last 25 million

it's been tracking slightly less then IM3. if it continues to track less it could miss it.