Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JB33]

bubbadoom-go to box office mojo and look at IM 3 dailies. its 50/50 it won't reach 400 million.

after tomorrow it will take a long time to get that last 25 million

it's been tracking slightly less then IM3. if it continues to track less it could miss it.

I think a lot of people here are missing the point of the drops here, or don't realize how drops work, and just focusing on the sheer amount of money. I happen to think that it WILL reach $400M, but it's going to be a bit of a slog, especially if it doesn't start holding better and settling in to a rhythm. We've seen 4 consecutive 50%+ weekend drops. That doesn't bode well.

I really hope people don't think I'm bashing this movie or the box office performance. I'm critical of it, but I'm certainly happy overall. As for the movie itself, I loved it. I've seen it 4 times in theatres. I'm just very analytical when it comes to these things, whether it comes across as negative or positive. It's been a healthy box office run for this movie overall, especially given the meager May box office we've seen in general, but it just goes against the norm for these big Marvel movies.

 

[spiderman2]

I just have to say that I am surprised the movie is not doing better. I really don't get it. I thought this movie with great reviews would be like a 600 USA and 1 billion OS for 1.6 billion WW before it came out. I thought with bad reviews it would be like 1.2 billion WW. The movie looks like with great reviews it is going to be more like that 1.2 rang. I fell like this movie is under achiving and I don't get it at all.

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

I just have to say that I am surprised the movie is not doing better. I really don't get it. I thought this movie with great reviews would be like a 600 USA and 1 billion OS for 1.6 billion WW before it came out. I thought with bad reviews it would be like 1.2 billion WW. The movie looks like with great reviews it is going to be more like that 1.2 rang. I fell like this movie is under achiving and I don't get it at all.

My personal take on it is that with more and more of the traditional summer blockbusters release in the winter/spring, the audience may already reach summer movie fatigue, or it may be that they have already spent a large amount of money at the cinemas. Both Deadpool and Batman v Superman grabbed a lot of money at the theaters, so it's safe to assume that there'll be less money to go around at this point of the year compare to years past. Thoughts?

 

[Mysteryman]

Sounds like the BO across the board was seriously hit. The holdovers fell short of predictions and the new stuff didn't really take at all.

I will take CW's box office over the disappointing numbers for Through The Looking Glass any day.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

My personal take on it is that with more and more of the traditional summer blockbusters release in the winter/spring, the audience may already reach summer movie fatigue, or it may be that they have already spent a large amount of money at the cinemas. Both Deadpool and Batman v Superman grabbed a lot of money at the theaters, so it's safe to assume that there'll be less money to go around at this point of the year compare to years past. Thoughts?

That's pretty much my working theory. It's actually been a great year for movies so far and the total box office gross, at least domestically, is running at record levels. People are just spreading the wealth as opposed to seeing a few big blockbusters and really punching their numbers up.

 

[Docker2.0]

My personal take on it is that with more and more of the traditional summer blockbusters release in the winter/spring, the audience may already reach summer movie fatigue, or it may be that they have already spent a large amount of money at the cinemas. Both Deadpool and Batman v Superman grabbed a lot of money at the theaters, so it's safe to assume that there'll be less money to go around at this point of the year compare to years past. Thoughts?

Not just that but it's a crowded summer. Don't be surprised if we get more "flops" because of it.

 

[ironman_rick]

I think the only way to really analyze the box-office performance of this movie is to wait until the summer is over.

Its been a long year for superhero movies. Maybe releasing 4 superhero movies in a span of 3 months is taking its toll.

 

[spiderman2]

My personal take on it is that with more and more of the traditional summer blockbusters release in the winter/spring, the audience may already reach summer movie fatigue, or it may be that they have already spent a large amount of money at the cinemas. Both Deadpool and Batman v Superman grabbed a lot of money at the theaters, so it's safe to assume that there'll be less money to go around at this point of the year compare to years past. Thoughts?

I don't belive in CBM fatigue at all its a myth. If it really was a issue then iron man 3 shouldn't have done so well considering if was the 4th movie with iron man in it in just 5 years. If it was really such a issue then a franchise like bond that has done like 25 bond movies shouldn't still be around and should have died all ready from fatigue.

 

[SamWinchester]

There is more saturation in the market with blockbuster movies year around now. Look at X-Men it only made $65 million over a 3 day weekend if you add today as a 4 day total it will probably make around 80 million or so. I think people are watching their money more tightly and you had a movie 5 weeks earlier that had the same premise and was super hyped but left the majority of the audience disappointed. That was bound to hurt Civil War Box Office numbers. Only other film this year I see going over a billion is Rogue One.

 

[Tilapia]

Look at next year... Wolverine 3, GotG, Spidey, Thor:Ragnarok, Justice League. Then Black Panther early 2018.

Albeit different movies. But Spidey is going to struggle with franchise fatigue I feel. I think they've taken some good precautions mixing up the cast however. I can't see a Thor/Hulk movie doing a billion though. It has the elements there, but it's not going to get there by a long shot I feel. I won't comment on Justice League at this juncture.

And the reason we are seeing blockbuster saturation is because of consolidation and M&A. There are no smaller studios now that aren't part of larger conglomerates. Any that exist are basically independent artsy studio productions for Sundance Festivals. You got four or five heavy hitters than need a flagship every quarter to sustain expenses. The only dead month is January/1st week of Feb when you have NFL playoffs. September/October tend to be Oscar bait season, but I think tentpoles will start moving into those months as well.

 

[AvengerPA]

Scarlett Johannsen failed to do any promotions for this movie. Should we blame her for the movie's underperformance?

 

[SamWinchester]

Look at next year... Wolverine 3, GotG, Spidey, Thor:Ragnarok, Justice League. Then Black Panther early 2018.

Albeit different movies. But Spidey is going to struggle with franchise fatigue I feel. I think they've taken some good precautions mixing up the cast however. I can't see a Thor/Hulk movie doing a billion though. It has the elements there, but it's not going to get there by a long shot I feel. I won't comment on Justice League at this juncture.

I think if Spidey is good it could do around $850 to $900 million. Thor Ragnarok if its the Winter Soldier of Thor films $700 to $825 million. Wolverine since its rated R around $500 million. GOTG if its better than the first I could see maybe a billion but most likely around $900 million. Justice League is a wild card with the bad taste BVS left in peoples mouth it's going to be tough for a Billion but if Snyder redeems himself and seeing Batman, Flash, Wonder Woman, Superman, Aquaman, Green Lantern on screen together could be huge.

 

[Raiden]

There is more saturation in the market with blockbuster movies year around now. Look at X-Men it only made $65 million over a 3 day weekend if you add today as a 4 day total it will probably make around 80 million or so. I think people are watching their money more tightly and you had a movie 5 weeks earlier that had the same premise and was super hyped but left the majority of the audience disappointed. That was bound to hurt Civil War Box Office numbers. Only other film this year I see going over a billion is Rogue One.

Zootopia will probably make a billion as well.

 

[SamWinchester]

Zootopia will probably make a billion as well.

Yeah I forgot about Zootopia Disney is having a year like Universal had in 2015. They will probably be the only studio with billion dollar films in 2016.

 

[Chesterfield]

That xmen weekend take is shocking.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

4-day weekend estimations on Box Office Mojo. 80M for XMA, 19,7 for CA:CW.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2016&wknd=22a&p=

 

[The Caped Knight]

Civil War is doing just fine, it made back it money, achieved record breaking achievements and critical acclaimed recondition.

 

[RoryTate]

Look at next year... Wolverine 3, GotG, Spidey, Thor:Ragnarok, Justice League. Then Black Panther early 2018.

Albeit different movies. But Spidey is going to struggle with franchise fatigue I feel. I think they've taken some good precautions mixing up the cast however. I can't see a Thor/Hulk movie doing a billion though. It has the elements there, but it's not going to get there by a long shot I feel. I won't comment on Justice League at this juncture.

There are a lot of factors coming into play right now, including limited disposable income (not everyone can afford to see every movie in a year, and now we have multiple CBM's in a single month), and previous CBM experience/WOM affecting later releases. What I found very interesting when reading/watching recent reviews were how many people said that the frustration of watching BvS made it more difficult for them to fully enjoy CW and even X:A.

Taking all that into account for 2017, the slate isn't so packed at any time as it is right now:

March 3: Untitled Wolverine sequel (Fox)
March 31: Ghost In The Shell (Paramount)
May 5: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
June 2: Wonder Woman
July 7: Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony release, Marvel Studios-produced)
October 6: Untitled Fox Marvel film (Fox)
November 3: Thor: Ragnarok
November 17: Justice League, Part 1
Unscheduled 2017: Bloodshot (Valiant/Sony)

This seems a bit more spaced out, with the biggest clash being Thor and JL. However, there is a large gap before those two movies, so their BO's shouldn't be as affected as CW and X:A seem to be right now. It's difficult to estimate, but I'm sure having BvS and Deadpool only a few months previous did affect both of those movies in an ultimately negative manner.

 

[JKKS085]

I am pretty sure JL is gonna move.
After BvS' negative reception WB is going to want to minimize the risk. Being the 5th major cbm film that year, stuck between a Thor/Hulk team up movie and Star Wars Episode VIII is the guarantee for a bloodbath of epic proportions if the film ends up as poorly received as BvS.

 

[JKKS085]

I'll say $12M +/- this weekend. $15 if you count Monday.

Like I said. 0 chance

 

[Vincanws]

Civil War is doing just fine, it made back it money, achieved record breaking achievements and critical acclaimed recondition.

Not only this, but people are throwing around the word "disappointed" or "disappointing" a lot, without any real knowledge of what the studios own actual estimates or predictions were. If I were a studio exec I'd be happy with top 3rd or 4th CBM WW gross of all time, and top WW and DOM box office for 2016 (as of now). And $400+ million ahead of Cap 2 and counting. People, for whatever reason love to spin a negative out of a positive. If the movie makes $1.2 billion, then why not $1.3? If it makes $1.3, it could have got to Avengers 2 like numbers. I mean, jeez people.

 

[warcam]

Like I said. 0 chance

Ooohhh...you got me t:

I pulled those #'s completely out of my arse, but I guess I was expecting CW to lose more screens than it did while waaayyy overestimating X:A and Alice's performance.

 

[warcam]

I still contend that people need to keep their expectations in check and stop with the:

"It's guaranteed to do at least $$$"...."$$$$ is the absolute floor" and "No way this does less than $$$$".

There may not be CBM fatigue in general, but I think certain characters/franchises have certainly reached their peak.

 

[Tilapia]

Justice League can probably go March 2018. You definitely want to get ahead of Infinitu War. I do t know what's scheduled for March yet. Sandwiching yourself between Thor and Star Wars is madness.

 

[Iceman]

I still contend that people need to keep their expectations in check and stop with the:

"It's guaranteed to do at least $$$"...."$$$$ is the absolute floor" and "No way this does less than $$$$".

There may not be CBM fatigue in general, but I think certain characters/franchises have certainly reached their peak.

I can't see a future Cap film doing a lot more than this plus inflation for a long time.