Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's early so I don't know maybe things could look better but is it really a failure if Age of Ultron "only" makes 150-200mil and doesn't make a record 390+million like F7? I think bad would be less than the first Avengers. Anyway maybe the theater owners are being too pessimistic, I'm going to take a wait and see attitude.

 

[Val_Zod]

Is it really surprising that it's running behind in China? Avengers made 86M in China, Transformers Age of Extinction made 320M, and FF7 beat that record.

I personally think it is, as the China market has grown so much in the past 3 years, and the film features a ton of robots, and intense action, which the asian market gravitates towards.

Guess they didn't have enough explosions for their taste.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Watch Marvel create a character named "Chairman China" to team-up with Cap in the comics, in time for inclusion in the Infinity Wars

 

[Mysteryman]

Try over or under 40 million, 50 million isn't happening dear sir. I'm going for 37million myself. Here are my predictions.

1. Pitch Perfect 63 million.
2. Mad Max 50mil
3. AOU 37mil

I wouldn't be surprised if I'm too high on both openers but those are my feelings right now.

Didn't Furious 7 come out on a Sunday in China? I'm not an expert at the Chinese box office so I only know that the number is great, beyond that I don't know much.

63 million for Pitch Perfect 2 ?
I am curious how you came up with that number .

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So since it did better than Transformers during it's midnight showing in China does that mean 250-300 million total is guaranteed or is it going to face tougher competition? I know this question can't and won't really be answered until it's run is over but I'm just thinking out loud.

63 million for Pitch Perfect 2 ?
I am curious how you came up with that number .

I gave an explanation on page 28. Also I didn't "come up" with anything, it's called a prediction. Either it will be correct or incorrect.

 

[Mysteryman]

I didnt mean to imply anything negative,
I was merely curious.
Thank you for answering my question.

 

[BlackDoomShadow]

Here's my take on all this, as someone with no formal experience.

The rise of the international blockbuster over the last five years has meant that studios are making huge amounts of money on foreign territories. But this has also led to a misconception that a movie's domestic gross is irrelevant, which is not the case.

In the last couple years we've seen several "quasi-flops," a phrase I just made up that refers to a movie that underperformed (or flopped) domestically but featured enough CGI explosions to turn a small profit internationally. Some examples are The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Star Trek Into Darkness, and Man of Steel.

Now, is Age of Ultron underperforming or a flop? Absolutely not. But it's not reaching the heights it was originally predicted to, and that is certainly some cause for concern as we watch the future. In the above three examples, the movies may not have been huge financial catastrophes, but the studios realized that they needed to do something fast or the next film would be.

As a few others have said, Age of Ultron isn't the one we should be watching. Ant-Man is. If Ant-Man underperforms (or worse, flops), Marvel will be certainly be rethinking some of their Phase Three plans. If Ant-Man can't hold his own movie, how can Black Panther or Captain Marvel? And please, don't cite Guardians of the Galaxy. Just don't. It's not remotely the same type of film and there are about 27 different variables that helped make it a success that the other standalones don't have.

So tl;dr: don't worry too much about Age of Ultron's gross. Worry about Ant-Man's.

 

[sueb1863]

PP1 was a huge cult hit with teenagers and such and really put Anna Kendrick on the board as the most legitimate star from the twilight series. It's funny how her career has taken off, but Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson's careers crash landed. And Kendrick had a bit part in those films.

That's because Stewart and Pattinson were miscast and pretty bad, and didn't have good follow ups to their Twilight roles. Kendrick seems to have a better manager and a better ability to move on to other, better roles.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I didnt mean to imply anything negative,
I was merely curious.
Thank you for answering my question.

I'd also like to point out that other female skewing hits like Twilight and Sex and the City opened with 55 to 70 million dollars 5 or so years ago , 63 million does not even get me to Sex and the City adjusted for inflation I'm sure. Last year nobody paying attention to it before hand did not stop The Fault in Our Stars from opening with 48 million.

Pitch Perfect is not a depressing cancer drama but a Summer comedy, which Summer comedy blew away expectations just last year after a wanna be blockbuster opened with 90 million? It was called Neighbors with 49 million and unlike PP 2 it was R rated. I admit that I could be going high but right now I do expect around 53-55 million opening weekend. 63 is because I think it's going to overperform those numbers.

Predicting isn't an exact science and I'm often dead wrong but I try to predict based on something. If I were just tossing the number out there without any thought, I would definitely say so.

 

[8ulk]

Here's my take on all this, as someone with no formal experience.

The rise of the international blockbuster over the last five years has meant that studios are making huge amounts of money on foreign territories. But this has also led to a misconception that a movie's domestic gross is irrelevant, which is not the case.

In the last couple years we've seen several "quasi-flops," a phrase I just made up that refers to a movie that underperformed (or flopped) domestically but featured enough CGI explosions to turn a small profit internationally. Some examples are The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Star Trek Into Darkness, and Man of Steel.

Now, is Age of Ultron underperforming or a flop? Absolutely not. But it's not reaching the heights it was originally predicted to, and that is certainly some cause for concern as we watch the future. In the above three examples, the movies may not have been huge financial catastrophes, but the studios realized that they needed to do something fast or the next film would be.

As a few others have said, Age of Ultron isn't the one we should be watching. Ant-Man is. If Ant-Man underperforms (or worse, flops), Marvel will be certainly be rethinking some of their Phase Three plans. If Ant-Man can't hold his own movie, how can Black Panther or Captain Marvel? And please, don't cite Guardians of the Galaxy. Just don't. It's not remotely the same type of film and there are about 27 different variables that helped make it a success that the other standalones don't have.

So tl;dr: don't worry too much about Age of Ultron's gross. Worry about Ant-Man's.

I think you re being way to pessimistic.

I have ZERO worries for Ant-Man. It is based on Edgar Wright script which Joss Whedon called the best Marvel had so far.

So yeah definately nothing to worry about here.

Plus its pretty safe to say Ant-Man will 100% gross its production money back so there is no danger for future MCU plans.
Ant-Man doesnt need to make Cap 2 - GoTG numbers.

600 mil WW would be enough and considered a big success for Ant-Man.

I think Ant-Man will make Thor 2 TDW numbers. 600-650 mil WW.

175-225 mil US & 350-475 mil OS.

500 mil WW will cover production and marketing costs and i think its more than guaranteed to make that amount. So whats the point for concern ?

 

[lukebrodyg]

It's not that shocking that Ultron is lagging. It's a much more dividing film with regard to reception. That's bound to spill over into other markets.

My guess is AOU will fall behind The Avengers domestically easily and most likely OS (and WW obviously).

 

[8ulk]

It's not that shocking that Ultron is lagging. It's a much more dividing film with regard to reception. That's bound to spill over into other markets.

My guess is AOU will fall behind The Avengers domestically easily and most likely OS (and WW obviously).

Well its quite obvious by now domestic numbers will be lower.

Overseas its another story. Its a TOTAL given OS will improve from Avengers. 100% sure. Even if China does 150-200 mil.

The question is if it beats the 1,52 bil total which clearly depends on China.
If it gets 300+ its definately happening . If it gets 250 or lower it will fall short.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

OD estimate for China is $36 million. Pretty epic for a Tuesday opening.

 

[Tony Stark]

Iron Man 3 was the top grossing MCU film in China at 121M so I'd expect AoU to finish above that. CA:TWS wasn't that far off the mark at 115M which is really odd with a movie about an American icon.

I personally don't think Avengers will pass Transformers 4 or FF7 in China, but I know there's alot of people that do think that. But I'm no expert on China box office, but their tastes don't really mirror our own.

 

[Wildcard]

It's early so I don't know maybe things could look better but is it really a failure if Age of Ultron "only" makes 150-200mil and doesn't make a record 390+million like F7? I think bad would be less than the first Avengers. Anyway maybe the theater owners are being too pessimistic, I'm going to take a wait and see attitude.

Same here, it's still pretty soon to be calling anything. And no, I wouldn't say it'd be a failure if it didn't outdo F7 but it should fall within the same ballpark...maybe more.

Just gotta wait and see.

 

[Tony Stark]

Same here, it's still pretty soon to be calling anything. And no, I wouldn't say it'd be a failure if it didn't outdo F7 but it should fall within the same ballpark...maybe more.

Just gotta wait and see.

I just don't see any evidence where it will come anywhere near TF4 or FF7. Now FF7 was a huge jump in China over FF6. I don't know why there would be that big of a jump.

However with the MCU films there's a track record for the last three years 86M for A1, 121M for IM3, and 115M for CA:TWS.

 

[JB33]

Some Chinese box office updates:

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 25m25 minutes ago
China Box Office Opening Day Estimates: 'Avengers: Age Of Ultron' Scores 2nd Highest Debut Of All-Time With... http://fb.me/386RoVHYf

Jonathan Papish ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 21m21 minutes ago
Early estimate for #Avengers2 opening day at #ChinaBoxOffice is $32.48M, 2nd highest opening day, behind #Furious7 http://bit.ly/1KFHeU9

 

[warriorking]

Keep in mind FF7 opened on a Sunday while AOU opened on Tuesday..
Wait for the weekend count to come in..AOU will explode....

 

[Iceman]

Sounds like a good start. Yeah look forward to that weekend figure. How long is this going to get in Chinese cinemas before getting booted, anyone know?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A month.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well if it's running ahead of TF4 that's good. So foreign box office alone should be 1.1-1.2B so with the domestic loss it should finish about where the first one did WW or maybe a chance at 1.6

 

[Iceman]

A month.

Thanks. Is that the same as Furious?

 

[Tony Stark]

Thanks. Is that the same as Furious?

Yes it was released April 12 and was just pulled from theaters.

 

[JB33]

Taking into account yesterday's domestic total, which was $5.399M, according to boxoffice.com, and the reported $32.48M from opening day in China, AoU is now at $913.7M worldwide. It's obviously higher if you take into account yesterday's totals from every other territory but we don't have that information yet. It'll hit $1B by tomorrow, likely.

 

[Iceman]

Yes it was released April 12 and was just pulled from theaters.

Thanks.

Taking into account yesterday's domestic total, which was $5.399M, according to boxoffice.com, and the reported $32.48M from opening day in China, AoU is now at $913.7M worldwide. It's obviously higher if you take into account yesterday's totals from every other territory but we don't have that information yet. It'll hit $1B by tomorrow, likely.

Yeah hopefully a good way clear by the end of the weekend after a big Chinese weekend. After this weekend it should start winding down a bit.