Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[rashad]

I say minimum is $300m


Fast 6 did $66m in China. Fast 7 is sitting at $371m as of 8 days ago there.

Furious 7 is around $390M in China. This is it's last day of release.

 

[JB33]

At the end of the day, the unfortunate reality is that The Avengers casts an enormous shadow over Avengers: Age of Ultron. You'd like to be able to judge AoU on its own, but you also can't blame the disappointed crowd for feeling that way. I mean, it's only natural to compare a sequel to its predecessor.

I doubt you'll find many people stating AoU's box office performance so far is a disappointment, period, just that it's a disappointment compared to The Avengers, which I personally think is a fair statement when we're talking about domestic gross. I had hoped that AoU would be a lock for at least $500M domestically and that's looking like a stretch at this point.

 

[Tony Stark]

Weren't you saying the drop wouldn't be this high, because last weekend was "weird" do to the sporting events?

I predicted 85M, (-55%) I split the difference between A1 and IM3, when the 24-25M figure on Friday came in , it seems like that's what it was lining up for, the numbers came out lower.

The fight numbers were recovered from last Sunday with only -11%.

What does it matter? If I could predict things correctly 100% of the time , I'd pick the winning powerball numbers and take early retirement.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I predicted 85M, (-55%) I split the difference between A1 and IM3, when the 24-25M figure on Friday came in , it seems like that's what it was lining up for, the numbers came out lower.

The fight numbers were recovered from last Sunday with only -11%.

What does it matter? If I could predict things correctly 100% of the time , I'd pick the winning powerball numbers and take early retirement.

Because you back pedal and these things. The numbers are fine, but you were so adamant last weekend was some sort of an anomaly. You weren't reading the numbers, you were hoping for the best. SPIDEY has been killing it in this thread, bringing the truth. Probably because she isn't a self-confessed MCU fangirl.

 

[TheVileOne]

No one can really deny that Avengers Age of Ultron suffers from a mild case of sequelitis.

The Avengers was so beloved, it was bound to happen. Expectations IMHO were set way too high.

Not saying Avengers was a bad movie, but it's clear it will not really surpass the first film.

The good news is, hopefully that will temper expectations for the next film.

 

[Tymminator]

Compared to he first Avengers, it's a bigger drop.

Compared to other CBM/blockbusters... I honk it's about average, right? 59-60%? Or am I mathing wrong?

That's correct from what I understand, usually for films that open close to that big, a large drop is always expected as usually blockbusters are just naturally front loaded. I remember when people discused the first Avengers they were freaking shocked at how well it held that second weekend.

Avengers was an amazing hold from such a big opening weekend. This one is just a standard fall.

Exactly.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Because you back pedal and these things. The numbers are fine, but you were so adamant last weekend was some sort of an anomaly. You weren't reading the numbers, you were hoping for the best. SPIDEY has been killing it in this thread, bringing the truth. Probably because she isn't a self-confessed MCU fangirl.

Yep, the numbers weren't an anomaly, the average weekdays showed as much.

And I get rooting on a film, I do it all the time but the numbers are the numbers. The film is a huge hit with, in my opinion, decent word of mouth as opposed to the first film's great word of mouth. The drop is average, not damning but the competition is heavier next weekend so good luck on it not dropping another 50+%. Iron Man 3 dropped 50.6% going up against Star Trek and Pitch Perfect combined with Mad Max will probably be doing 75 to 90 million. Personally I'm going high on both films, some might say too high but I've got a feeling.

 

[Sharkboy]

Yeah the lower critical reception and the lack of rewatch value (relatively) probably explains why this one is unlikely to top Furious 7.

 

[Tony Stark]

Because you back pedal and these things. The numbers are fine, but you were so adamant last weekend was some sort of an anomaly. You weren't reading the numbers, you were hoping for the best. SPIDEY has been killing it in this thread, bringing the truth. Probably because she isn't a self-confessed MCU fangirl.

Are you just looking to troll? I wasn't the one predicting 100M or some crazy stuff like that. ISS was right in saying that wasn't going to happen.

I looked at A1 and IM3 and said well it's not going to have the hold A1 had, and it was performing better than IM3, so I split the difference at -55%, when the early Friday numbers came in and everyone had it at 23-25M on Friday which would have put my number right in play. That wasn't corrected until early on Saturday.

Do you think RTH is a fanboy? No his numbers were wrong, and so were mine. I don't remember you putting up any predictions, so it's pathetic of you to throw out a number that was 4% off the actuals, when you didn't predict anything.


http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=31296819&postcount=27

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=31301919&postcount=155

For people actually interested in what I said. I NEVER said that the previous weekend was an anomaly, and I did read the numbers, in fact I correctly predicted a weak Saturday with a Stronger than expected Sunday, and I correctly predicted the actuals would be above 190M. Now go back to your troll cave.

 

[warriorking]

Yeah the lower critical reception and the lack of rewatch value (relatively) probably explains why this one is unlikely to top Furious 7.

I think it will top Furious 7s numbers, it will surpass it domestically by next weekend and it will do more in
China as well...
No way Furious 7 exceeds AOU in WW numbers...

 

[Iceman]

Furious 7 is around $390M in China. This is it's last day of release.

So it might not make it to $400m? Pathetic!!!

 

[Lord]

Furious 7 still did impressive business, i think there's a fair chance for Avengers 2 to beat it, but i'm not sure about that yet.

 

[Docker2.0]

Because you back pedal and these things. The numbers are fine, but you were so adamant last weekend was some sort of an anomaly. You weren't reading the numbers, you were hoping for the best. SPIDEY has been killing it in this thread, bringing the truth. Probably because she isn't a self-confessed MCU fangirl.

Over/under this weekend: $50M DOM.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Jonathan Papish – ‏@ChinaBoxOffice
#ChinaBoxOffice Early estimate for Tues. midnight shows of #Avengers2 is $4.83M, ahead of #Transformers4 ($3.38M), behind #Furious7 ($8.42M)

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Over/under this weekend: $50M DOM.

Try over or under 40 million, 50 million isn't happening dear sir. I'm going for 37million myself. Here are my predictions.

1. Pitch Perfect 63 million.
2. Mad Max 50mil
3. AOU 37mil

I wouldn't be surprised if I'm too high on both openers but those are my feelings right now.

Didn't Furious 7 come out on a Sunday in China? I'm not an expert at the Chinese box office so I only know that the number is great, beyond that I don't know much.

 

[Docker2.0]

Try over or under 40 million, 50 million isn't happening dear sir. I'm going for 37million myself. Here are my predictions.

1. Pitch Perfect 63 million.
2. Mad Max 50mil
3. AOU 37mil

I wouldn't be surprised if I'm too high on both openers but those are my feelings right now.

Going under $50M but around $43M. I feel really good about it this time.

 

[rashad]

I think it will top Furious 7s numbers, it will surpass it domestically by next weekend and it will do more in
China as well...

China remains to be seen.

 

[Iceman]

I think $38m next weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

Sounds about right, It may end up in 3rd place, sounds like PP2 and MM are both projected above 40M. I think that PP2 will actually have the best shot at no. 1, big female audience and fandom from the first one, where MM is rated R, and will likely have a heavy male demographic, although MM seems to be getting great reviews so far.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My Pitch Perfect prediction is because North American box office seems to mirror the Aussie box office and Pitch Perfect 2 had a huge opening in Australia this past weekend, the first film also did fantastically on home video and Hot Pursuit just flopped so it won't be stealing any of that female audience away.

My Mad Max prediction is based on the amazing trailers and good reviews.

And I already explained why I thought AOU was dropping over 50% so no need to go over that again. I will bow down to Docker if the film hits 43 million.

 

[Docker2.0]

My Pitch Perfect prediction is because North American box office seems to mirror the Aussie box office and Pitch Perfect 2 had a huge opening in Australia this past weekend, the first film also did fantastically on home video and Hot Pursuit just flopped so it won't be stealing any of that female audience away.

My Mad Max prediction is based on the amazing trailers and good reviews.

And I already explained why I thought AOU was dropping over 50% so no need to go over that again. I will bow down to Docker if the film hits 43 million.

I will bring red carpet for your knees.

 

[JB33]

Chinese theatre owners seem pretty guarded about the total haul for Avengers: Age of Ultron...

Jonathan Papish @ChinaBoxOffice · 1h 1 hour ago
China theater owners pessimistic about final BO for #Avengers2 after weaker midnight showings, estimate btw 150M-200M http://bit.ly/1EuTanN

 

[Tony Stark]

PP1 was a huge cult hit with teenagers and such and really put Anna Kendrick on the board as the most legitimate star from the twilight series. It's funny how her career has taken off, but Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson's careers crash landed. And Kendrick had a bit part in those films.

 

[Iceman]

If AoU disappoints in China all future MCU films better feature the heroes speeding around in sports cars or riding mechs.

 

[Tony Stark]

Is it really surprising that it's running behind in China? Avengers made 86M in China, Transformers Age of Extinction made 320M, and FF7 beat that record.