Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[metaphysician]

Well, it does annoy me, mostly in that this will be used to rationalize all kinds of insane expectations about Batman vs Superman.

 

[JKKS085]

Because AOU fits perfectly the definition of a disappointing success.

It made an insane amount of money, there's no discussion wether or not it will turn in a massive profit even if you don't account for side revenues, tax breaks and stuff people usually use to spin things around when a crazy expensive film fails to break even during its theater run. Yes it will be one of the most successful and widely viewed movie ever and the fact that Marvel Studios, which doesn't even have 10 years of existence in the business, managed to release two films that will end up in the top 5 of all time is an impressive achievement any way you look at it.

That being said, AOU could/should have done better. There were several factors working against it, such as the exchange rate issue, but there really is no excuse for the diminishing returns on the domestic front. A slight decrease was expected (especially due to a lowering 3D share), and is not unheard of in history, but a 160M+ drop ? That was a bad surprise.
The severe drops it suffered after its release in China was another as well and in other international markets, even if it mostly sold more tickets than the first film, it was still very frontloaded.

So yeah, the raw numbers are excellent, but if you put them in perspective they are nothing to gloat about. And if they are some sort of forecast for their upcoming slate of films then it is not exactly great news either. The dynamic seems much more different than it was after 2012 when the sky was the limit and with the competition getting stiffer, I don't think Marvel can rest on their laurels anymore.

 

[Iceman]

Agreed JKK.

 

[JB33]

Who knew being in the top 5 of all time was disappointing?!

*Sigh* Some of you aren't even trying to understand what we're saying.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think I was pretty much saying what JKK is saying and somebody got on my ass about it. Not that I give a **** of course.

 

[Leenie]

Because AOU fits perfectly the definition of a disappointing success.

It made an insane amount of money, there's no discussion wether or not it will turn in a massive profit even if you don't account for side revenues, tax breaks and stuff people usually use to spin things around when a crazy expensive film fails to break even during its theater run. Yes it will be one of the most successful and widely viewed movie ever and the fact that Marvel Studios, which doesn't even have 10 years of existence in the business, managed to release two films that will end up in the top 5 of all time is an impressive achievement any way you look at it.

That being said, AOU could/should have done better. There were several factors working against it, such as the exchange rate issue, but there really is no excuse for the diminishing returns on the domestic front. A slight decrease was expected (especially due to a lowering 3D share), and is not unheard of in history, but a 160M+ drop ? That was a bad surprise.
The severe drops it suffered after its release in China was another as well and in other international markets, even if it mostly sold more tickets than the first film, it was still very frontloaded.

So yeah, the raw numbers are excellent, but if you put them in perspective they are nothing to gloat about. And if they are some sort of forecast for their upcoming slate of films then it is not exactly great news either. The dynamic seems much more different than it was after 2012 when the sky was the limit and with the competition getting stiffer, I don't think Marvel can rest on their laurels anymore.

You make a lot of good points here. I can see why people would view AoU's box office as disappointing. It's definitely not a failure or anything, though.

Personally, while I liked AoU, do I think it deserves the amount of money that the first Avengers movie made? Nope. I don't think the movie is as good, to put it simply ... And a lot of people feel the same way. I'm not really shocked by its box office numbers.

Also, keep in mind that AoU has had more competition than the first Avengers movie. The first movie was up against nothing (if memory serves me right). AoU has had to compete with FF7, which has turned out to be a box office behemoth.

 

[Spiderine]

JKK is absolutely right. It doesn't mean anyone is putting down the film's success. He brought up some very good points.

 

[8ulk]

^ To be fair the profit from the film total gross itself isnt that big yet . Disney will gain more with Dvd/BluRay & especially merchandise.

1,32 bil = 625 mil for Disney (estimated figure with 50-60% take from US and rest of OS markets and only 30% from China. Theaters take the rest.)

Production cost for AoU with marketing included was a stunning 425-450 mil (courtesy of Robert Diva Jr)

625 minus 425-450 mil = 175-200 mil profit.

But just like i mentioned merchandise & home video will offer a lot of profits.

 

[See Cap Run]

Let's just figure out the profits using the standard method to keep things simple: $250 million production budget per Box Office Mojo. Will make at least 1.4 billion worldwide. 1.4 billion ÷ 2 is $700 million- $250 million production budget and the film will make $450 million+ in profits from box office revenue alone.

 

[JKKS085]

Not quite.

You have to factor in P&A costs as well both domestic and overseas. Studios get back around 55% of the domestic gross, around 35% overseas after expenses and 25% in China (where P&A costs are supported by the local distributor).

BO.com reports an overall budget of 340M including domestic P&A costs. That is a bit optimistic I think even if Marvel is known for being cheap. There has been a few partnerships with various brands as well which would bring the advertising bill down but I think we're looking more at and extra 125M for P&A. 375M overall seems more realistic.

Now with today's numbers, that mean Marvel gets around 236.5M dom, 236M os and 55M from China. That's 527,5M in revenue and a 152,5M profit.

Which is absolutely great considering that the movie will make in theaters less than 25% of the entire profit it is going to generate for the studio through home video sales, merchandising, vod and tv rights. Over the course of their theater runs most of the big tentpole movies with inflated production budgets and huge P&A costs don't break even. This one did and is even turing a sizable profit a month after its release.

 

[PunyGod]

...

 

[jmc]

I would like people to stop using the work 'lock' in their box office predictions. If the history of film has taught us anything is that no film, or film series for that matter, is guaranteed to make x-amount of dollars. Markets change, audiences tastes evolve, and film quality varies, all factors in contributing to final box office tally.

 

[8ulk]

Let's just figure out the profits using the standard method to keep things simple: $250 million production budget per Box Office Mojo. Will make at least 1.4 billion worldwide. 1.4 billion ÷ 2 is $700 million- $250 million production budget and the film will make $450 million+ in profits from box office revenue alone.

I guess you missed my post just before yours. Look up. ^^

(the 250 mil production budget is incorrect. its 279 mil without Bob Diva Jr bonuses..... and you ignore the Marketing costs)

 

[dalonewolf]

I guess you missed my post just before yours. Look up. ^^

(the 250 mil production budget is incorrect. its 279 mil without Bob Diva Jr bonuses..... and you ignore the Marketing costs)

Wikipedia had the production budget at 279 as well for some reason it's hard to find how much marvel spends on marketing because they never display it anywhere I don't know how your suppose to figure it out it almost as if they don't want anybody to know how much was actually spent on marketing

 

[KBX]

AoU will make around 1.4 Billion in the end of its run. Some will view that as a disappointment because of the ridiculous standards the MCU has put on its self.

You need to manage your expectations. There is nothing wrong with the MCU going forward when its going to get more diverse, more interesting and more massive.

When fast furious 8 and Avatar 2 comes out I guarantee those movies will not make as much as the previous one. It should not be viewed as any sort of disappointment because of the epic scenarios each movie has put in front of itself.

 

[TalismanRing]

No studio reveals what they spend on marketing and even released budget numbers are suspect. Disney though is a media conglomerate, like other studios, and owns ABC, ESPN, Theme parks etc so there's a lot of cross promotion and spending back into their own pockets when it comes to marketing as well as deals with companies like Samsung, Acura, Gilette etc.

Then there's all that merchandise that advertises from the toy store to the food store. In addition to the box office the success of these movies has increased merchandise sales exponentially. After the first movie in 2013 Avengers merchandise retail sales was about $300m in (already a huge increase from previous levels), last year it was over $1b and making as much or more than the golden goose Spider-man. This year it will be even higher.

Sequels to box office phenomenon movies go down - it's just a matter of how much. In the end in ticket sales it will decrease domestically about as much as TDKR did from TDK - about 25%. Meanwhile admissions increased O/S though exchange rates hurt the $ returns.

Complaining about or taking shots at a movie making $1.4 billion, one of the top all 5 time grossers worldwide and the biggest movie domestically since the first Avengers is screwy.

Disney is crying all the way to the bank.

 

[metaphysician]

You really shouldn't factor in marketing, anyway. Unlike the production budget, the marketing budget is filled with Hollywood funny money and promotional barter. When a company "pays" another company to do tie-ins with "license to use our visual IP", that has a dollar value and counts towards your expenditures, but its not money out of a bank account.

As for the percent cut, those percentages are largely out of date. Modern international releases have more than a 35% take, at least for companies like Disney with actual international operations. In addition, some of the gross that goes to the foreign partners is used to pay for stuff that, in the US, would fall under the marketing budget.

 

[dalonewolf]

You really shouldn't factor in marketing, anyway. Unlike the production budget, the marketing budget is filled with Hollywood funny money and promotional barter. When a company "pays" another company to do tie-ins with "license to use our visual IP", that has a dollar value and counts towards your expenditures, but its not money out of a bank account.

As for the percent cut, those percentages are largely out of date. Modern international releases have more than a 35% take, at least for companies like Disney with actual international operations. In addition, some of the gross that goes to the foreign partners is used to pay for stuff that, in the US, would fall under the marketing budget.

So overall what's the average of the splits
Between the domestic and foreign numbers for the companies
How much does a company take out of the overall boxoffice ???

 

[PunyGod]

...

 

[TalismanRing]

Avg? About 40% non China territories. Though it varies - some markets it's around 50% and some around 30%. Bigger studios with wanted tent poles can negotiate for higher percentages . We saw this happen in Germany with AOU and they lost the smaller theaters over it but got their 50%+ from the larger ones. China is 25% but they handle most of the local marketing. Domestic, as of the new deal Disney cut before AOU opened 60%.

SO for the estimated finish for AOU box office and % going back to the studio:

Domestic: $460m x 60% = $276m
China: $240m x 25% = $60m
O/S - China: $720m x 40% = $288

= $624m theatrical net

The bigger difference in domestic vs O/S and especially China is ancillary income. $1 earned in the U.S. B.O. is worth about $7 earned in China not just because of 25% vs 60% split but because China has an almost on existent market for video, streaming, TV etc.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-hollywood-not-all-box-office-dollars-are-equal-1409241925

WSJ chart from 2013/14

 

[hafizbat]

Because AOU fits perfectly the definition of a disappointing success.

It made an insane amount of money, there's no discussion wether or not it will turn in a massive profit even if you don't account for side revenues, tax breaks and stuff people usually use to spin things around when a crazy expensive film fails to break even during its theater run. Yes it will be one of the most successful and widely viewed movie ever and the fact that Marvel Studios, which doesn't even have 10 years of existence in the business, managed to release two films that will end up in the top 5 of all time is an impressive achievement any way you look at it.

That being said, AOU could/should have done better. There were several factors working against it, such as the exchange rate issue, but there really is no excuse for the diminishing returns on the domestic front. A slight decrease was expected (especially due to a lowering 3D share), and is not unheard of in history, but a 160M+ drop ? That was a bad surprise.
The severe drops it suffered after its release in China was another as well and in other international markets, even if it mostly sold more tickets than the first film, it was still very frontloaded.

So yeah, the raw numbers are excellent, but if you put them in perspective they are nothing to gloat about. And if they are some sort of forecast for their upcoming slate of films then it is not exactly great news either. The dynamic seems much more different than it was after 2012 when the sky was the limit and with the competition getting stiffer, I don't think Marvel can rest on their laurels anymore.

And they most certainly know it, which is the silver lining in AoU's disappointing BO. The movie is obviously still a colossal success, but there's enough cause for concern to keep Marvel on their toes. They should know that if they want to ever reach or surpass their success with TA, they'll have to step up their game. If this BO return ultimately leads to a higher quality MCU, it's well-worth it.

 

[jmc]

Thing to consider is trying to surpass the success of The Avengers might not be achievable in the end. No one in their right mind would have predicted $1.5B 3 years ago, and even $1B wasn't guaranteed given the returns of the solo films, but because it did hit that mark anything below that now is going to be deemed not good enough, the problem is it's a very unrealistic goal. The argument can be made that Avengers may have actually overachieved and has now set an unrealistic standard for both studios and fans in terms of box office. This is probably a good wake up call for everyone. AoU biggest problem is that it lacked repeatable viewing, I knew as soon as I walked out I wasn't going to watch in again in the theatre because there wasn't much in the film that I hadn't already seen before, and I suspected many people would feel the same. Ultimately this is a strange film, it's made over $1.3B and yet it feels like everyone has just forgotten about it already.

 

[dalonewolf]

Avg? About 40% non China territories. Though it varies - some markets it's around 50% and some around 30%. Bigger studios with wanted tent poles can negotiate for higher percentages . We saw this happen in Germany with AOU and they lost the smaller theaters over it but got their 50%+ from the larger ones. China is 25% but they handle most of the local marketing. Domestic, as of the new deal Disney cut before AOU opened 60%.

SO for the estimated finish for AOU box office and % going back to the studio:

Domestic: $460m x 60% = $276m
China: $240m x 25% = $60m
O/S - China: $720m x 40% = $288

= $624m theatrical net

The bigger difference in domestic vs O/S and especially China is ancillary income. $1 earned in the U.S. B.O. is worth about $7 earned in China not just because of 25% vs 60% split but because China has an almost on existent market for video, streaming, TV etc.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-hollywood-not-all-box-office-dollars-are-equal-1409241925

WSJ chart from 2013/14

624mil in profits isn't bad at all
So how are we suppose to understand the marketing??
And how much do you really think the studio spent on it
Because if it's 100mil then that's 524 in profits right?

 

[NJCaliboi]

AoU will make around 1.4 Billion in the end of its run. Some will view that as a disappointment because of the ridiculous standards the MCU has put on its self.

You need to manage your expectations. There is nothing wrong with the MCU going forward when its going to get more diverse, more interesting and more massive.

When fast furious 8 and Avatar 2 comes out I guarantee those movies will not make as much as the previous one. It should not be viewed as any sort of disappointment because of the epic scenarios each movie has put in front of itself.

Shhhh.... You're making way too much sense, besides I love hearing new justifications detailing why making 1.4B isnt something to marvel at and celebrate. Fascinating stuff....lmao!

 

[Wildcard]

The way I see it, there is no logical reason anyone should consider a $1.4 billion gross a disappointment on any level whatsoever. There's just no good sense behind that.