Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Iceman]

I would like people to stop using the work 'lock' in their box office predictions. If the history of film has taught us anything is that no film, or film series for that matter, is guaranteed to make x-amount of dollars. Markets change, audiences tastes evolve, and film quality varies, all factors in contributing to final box office tally.

Infinity War 1 is a lock to make a million (one) dollars worldwide. t:

But yeah I agree.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think the only way Disney or Marvel could be disappointed/concerned is if IW part 1 makes less than A2, which is what would be the start of a trend.

Which is exactly what brought down the Sony Spider-Man franchise, where each film still made a lot of money but the returns kept diminishing with each installment.

 

[Iceman]

It will be a disappointment again if IW1 makes less than AoU I think yeah. Even with all the new stuff it doesn't need to target the $623m of the first film but $450m and $500m are reasonable targets along with $1.5B worldwide. Exchange rates might be better and who knows what top films will be grossing in China by then.

 

[8ulk]

624mil in profits isn't bad at all
So how are we suppose to understand the marketing??
And how much do you really think the studio spent on it
Because if it's 100mil then that's 524 in profits right?

Im glad someone else agrees with my post. I was the first to estimate a 625 mil theatrical net.

just keep in mind 625 mil is not profit cause you have to account the production & marketing cost of the film.

the production budget was 279 mil per wikipedia which is likely pretty close to the real number. But lets not forget one thing/ The Bob Diva jr parameter.
His total paycheck is not counted towards the final production cost.

so its 279 mil plus bob diva jr bonuses which are enormus.

He made an estimated 75 mil from the 1st avengers.

so the total and real production number is certainly north of 300 mil. We will never get official figures by disney though.

Now add another 100 mil or more for marketing we have a 400 mil cost which is likely a lowball.

Although exact marketing firuges are never officially made available to the public its a pretty known fact that HUGE BLOCKBUSTER movies get a 100 mil marketing budget.

so yeah. 625 theatrical profit (so far , its likely to increase up to 675-700 mil) minus the 400-450 mil total production budget with marketing included leaves us with 175-200 mil profit.

basically im repeating myself but noone seem to pay attention to my post and people kept asking about how much money it actually made.

 

[8ulk]

I would like people to stop using the work 'lock' in their box office predictions. If the history of film has taught us anything is that no film, or film series for that matter, is guaranteed to make x-amount of dollars. Markets change, audiences tastes evolve, and film quality varies, all factors in contributing to final box office tally.

I dont agree here. You can make some pretty accurate predictions with educated guesses

Plus once a film opens and we have the numbers you can "do the math" and say something is a lock or not.

for example when AoU opened to 191,3 mil US it was a foregone conclusion it would end up with at least 400 mil even with the worst legs ever recorded for a similar movie. So you could have said 400 mil is a LOCK only after 3 days of release.

So it all depends how you say it and when you say it.

Another example was China.

When FF7 opened with 182,4 mil and was at 300+ before AoU opened boxofficemojo guess that it would pretty hard to imagine AoU finishing with 200 mil there.

And it just happened to be true. AoU is about to finish with 230-250 mil in China.

So you had to be pretty stupid or unfamiliar with boxoffice "mechanics" and trends to not agree that 200 was a lock.
Anything below 150-175 mil was a NEAR IMPOSSIBILITY so the 200 mil was a reasonable number and sligthly lowballed imho and this proved SPOT ON. (although i thought it would make 300 mil)

Now 1 bil ww for IW is pretty much a lock irrelevant of the films quality or reception. Thats a lock and something "experts" agree. Its simple match actually. And the film doesnt open until 2018 but we know that now in 2015.
Saying 2 bil is a lock though would not be fair. only hope.

 

[Darkraid]

The way I see it, there is no logical reason anyone should consider a $1.4 billion gross a disappointment on any level whatsoever. There's just no good sense behind that.

Well, to put it simply, its like when you score 96 on the first test and 95 for the second test.

 

[dalonewolf]

Im glad someone else agrees with my post. I was the first to estimate a 625 mil theatrical net.

just keep in mind 625 mil is not profit cause you have to account the production & marketing cost of the film.

the production budget was 279 mil per wikipedia which is likely pretty close to the real number. But lets not forget one thing/ The Bob Diva jr parameter.
His total paycheck is not counted towards the final production cost.

so its 279 mil plus bob diva jr bonuses which are enormus.

He made an estimated 75 mil from the 1st avengers.

so the total and real production number is certainly north of 300 mil. We will never get official figures by disney though.

Now add another 100 mil or more for marketing we have a 400 mil cost which is likely a lowball.

Although exact marketing firuges are never officially made available to the public its a pretty known fact that HUGE BLOCKBUSTER movies get a 100 mil marketing budget.

so yeah. 625 theatrical profit (so far , its likely to increase up to 675-700 mil) minus the 400-450 mil total production budget with marketing included leaves us with 175-200 mil profit.

basically im repeating myself but noone seem to pay attention to my post and people kept asking about how much money it actually made.

I remember marvel saying the first avengers needed to make a billion for them to break even
So the 1.2bil mark was age of ultron break even point if only 200 mil in profits are true
But there's still another 200-250 to make between Japan and dvd sales
So in all the studio will be looking at about 400-450 in profits
Still isn't bad
But I was expecting more
I understand making 1.4bil is huge but that's just another number to look at when your not making that much money out of it.
As a fan ima see that number and say wow that's a lot
But as a studio CEO I'm going to see that number and say we needed to make more
Because above everything else marvel has to split it's profits with disney who owns them
Marvel is looking at 200mil
And Disney is looking at 200 mil
2bil was their goal I can feel it

 

[dalonewolf]

I dont agree here. You can make some pretty accurate predictions with educated guesses

Plus once a film opens and we have the numbers you can "do the math" and say something is a lock or not.

for example when AoU opened to 191,3 mil US it was a foregone conclusion it would end up with at least 400 mil even with the worst legs ever recorded for a similar movie. So you could have said 400 mil is a LOCK only after 3 days of release.

So it all depends how you say it and when you say it.

Another example was China.

When FF7 opened with 182,4 mil and was at 300+ before AoU opened boxofficemojo guess that it would pretty hard to imagine AoU finishing with 200 mil there.

And it just happened to be true. AoU is about to finish with 230-250 mil in China.

So you had to be pretty stupid or unfamiliar with boxoffice "mechanics" and trends to not agree that 200 was a lock.
Anything below 150-175 mil was a NEAR IMPOSSIBILITY so the 200 mil was a reasonable number and sligthly lowballed imho and this proved SPOT ON. (although i thought it would make 300 mil)

Now 1 bil ww for IW is pretty much a lock irrelevant of the films quality or reception. Thats a lock and something "experts" agree. Its simple match actually. And the film doesnt open until 2018 but we know that now in 2015.
Saying 2 bil is a lock though would not be fair. only hope.

Agreed,
All of avengers movies will be locks for a billion
It's just the rest of the the movies I will never be sure about until they are actually released or close to it

 

[Spiderine]

It will be a disappointment again if IW1 makes less than AoU I think yeah. Even with all the new stuff it doesn't need to target the $623m of the first film but $450m and $500m are reasonable targets along with $1.5B worldwide. Exchange rates might be better and who knows what top films will be grossing in China by then.

Do you think it could make less based on the fact that IW is split into two parts? Particularly the first film? They will be viewed as independent films. If that first one doesn't make an enormous impact in how things are set up what could it mean for the second?

 

[Lord]

Part 2 will most likely make much more money, that's what spliting a finale into parts does.

 

[Iceman]

Do you think it could make less based on the fact that IW is split into two parts? Particularly the first film? They will be viewed as independent films. If that first one doesn't make an enormous impact in how things are set up what could it mean for the second?

I think the first IW will make less than an all out Avengers 3 would have, and that there is more potential for it to miss with this format but I still think it will do at least AoU numbers with IW2 cleaning up. But also yes if the first film is really bad it will negatively affect numbers on the final film. I'd expect the 2 to be profitable between them even then with all the shared costs.

 

[TalismanRing]

I really wish they'd skip the Part I and Part II thing, it'll just confuse a lot of people into thinking there's a cliffhanger after the first one when Feige has said though they're connected they're are not one movie split in two and there's no cliffhanger. Naming them that because they've yet have a Part I & Part II seems a bit foolish.

They're really just Avengers 3 & 4 filmed back to back to save money and released within a year of one another. They aren't even concluding anything except a phase.

 

[dalonewolf]

Part 2 will most likely make much more money, that's what spliting a finale into parts does.

I think the last movie iw2 wil make the less put of the avengers movies and 1w1 will probably make the most

 

[Lord]

I think the last movie iw2 wil make the less put of the avengers movies and 1w1 will probably make the most

Why? Part 2 is a finale, does usualy make the most profit. Part 1s usualy seem to do slightly less than the expected.

 

[8ulk]

Yeah i really just cant understand why cant they make an 3 hour 30 min Avengers 3 movie instead of 2 parts 2 hours each.

Nolans Batman films were almost 3 hours.
Transformers films were almost 3 hours.

Assuming that the GA wont watch a 3+ hour film is a disgrace to human intelligence and i dont get the studio execs.

A movie doesnt have to be less than 2 hours. there is no law for movie runtime.

Just make 3 hour CB films already.

 

[dalonewolf]

Why? Part 2 is a finale, does usualy make the most profit. Part 1s usualy seem to do slightly less than the expected.

Nothing for sure just have that feeling that's all not saying it's not gonna make a lot of money doe.it will still be a billion dollar hit.
I just think Iw1 will be the highest grossing avengers movie l.
I believe it a will get that last installment treatment

 

[hafizbat]

I really wish they'd skip the Part I and Part II thing, it'll just confuse a lot of people into thinking there's a cliffhanger after the first one when Feige has said though they're connected they're are not one movie split in two and there's no cliffhanger. Naming them that because they've yet have a Part I & Part II seems a bit foolish.

They're really just Avengers 3 & 4 filmed back to back to save money and released within a year of one another. They aren't even concluding anything except a phase.

edit

 

[PunyGod]

...

 

[Wildcard]

That's such a far off comparison/analogy it's not even funny.

If anyone really thinks the team at Marvel is disappointed or sitting there thinking "where did we go wrong," you're completely off the mark.

 

[PunyGod]

...

 

[JB33]

Seems like a pretty accurate analogy to me. If you made a 95 on a test would you sit around with your head in your hands thinking "where did I go wrong?" Of course not and no one is saying Marvel is either.

But you can't help but wonder about the one little mistake you made that kept you from the perfect score. This movie is going to end up more than $100 million short of the first in domestic box office. That's pretty significant.

There could be any number of reasons behind that. Including the first film being a phenomenon that couldn't be reproduced or the general decline in box office since then. But you can bet the money crunchers at Disney were wondering what kept them from squeezing every last dollar out of the movie.

This movie had a higher budget than the first and it has 3 years of inflation on its side. Simple economics would tell you that you need to make more than the first. Of course nothing is that simple when it comes to movies but that is still the standard expectation.

I wouldn't bother. Like I said earlier, some people don't even want to try to understand what others are trying to say.

 

[PunyGod]

...

 

[marvellover]

Seems like a pretty accurate analogy to me. If you made a 95 on a test would you sit around with your head in your hands thinking "where did I go wrong?" Of course not and no one is saying Marvel is either.

But you can't help but wonder about the one little mistake you made that kept you from the perfect score. This movie is going to end up more than $100 million short of the first in domestic box office. That's pretty significant.

There could be any number of reasons behind that. Including the first film being a phenomenon that couldn't be reproduced or the general decline in box office since then. But you can bet the money crunchers at Disney were wondering what kept them from squeezing every last dollar out of the movie.

This movie had a higher budget than the first and it has 3 years of inflation on its side. Simple economics would tell you that you need to make more than the first. Of course nothing is that simple when it comes to movies but that is still the standard expectation.

Not to mention Marvel goes all out on the marketing and promotion

It's delusional to think that they are not concerned at all on the decline of BO compared to the first film

 

[rashad]

AVENGERS 2 update: w/ $1.348B worldwide Marvel's sequel passed HARRY POTTER 7p2 to become the 5th highest grossing film ever.

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/607567716405362688

 

[rashad]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON: $910.2M Overseas Total / $1.3482B Global Total #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON took in an estimated $6.20M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $438.02M. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron