Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JKKS085]

If any other, cheaper, better actor was as much of a draw as RDJ you can bet that's the guy Marvel would hire to play Tony Stark. They are not giving away huge (but in the norm of the industry) paychecks to RDJ out of goodwill.
The Judge did what it did because it's an indie drama with a limited international release and not exactly a broad appeal. The fact that it got lukewarm reviews probably didn't help either.
And both of RDJ's Holmes films grossed 500M+ worldwide (and the first went against Avatar, a small indie movie that didn't make a fuss).

Now I know I'm sorry to bring up once again facts and a bit of logic amongst someone's personal vendetta against the public face of the MCU. Still wondering what the guy did to your puppies 8ulk ?

 

[Iceman]

I think some people might already be forgetting what these Marvel movies are, what the purpose of the cinematic universe was meant to be. These are comic books on screen, meant to be watched exactly how you read comics. That is to say with the knowledge that the heroes likely aren't going to die and they'll be back for another adventure.

The Marvel brass is well aware of the nature of these movies (talking specifically about there being a feeling of constant continuation and no fear of characters dying etc.) because these movies - and this universe as a whole - were never designed to follow the normal format of movies. Again, they're comic books on screen, practically a completely different medium if you will.

Yes they are different when taken as a whole. They will have some unique appeal as a long term ongoing shared universe but won't be able to do some things that other films can as a result. All swings and roundabouts and been very successful so far anyway.

 

[Spitfire]

I agree here. While they always knew AoU would be filler, they also knew it'd be okay and wouldn't harm what they've done so far or how they''ll move forward. From this point on I honestly expect the stories to differentiate greatly & surpass the first two phases in many ways.
.

I don't think Marvel intended for AoU to be 'filler' although they did want the movie to provide some links to phase 3.

They should be concerned about the quality of every movie though. AoU has had an overall 'average' critical response, and we don't know how Ant Man will be received yet. A lot of Marvel fans just appreciate good movies and this support will start to disappear (and box office will decline) if the quality of phase 2 movies like TWS and GOTG isn't upheld in phase 3.

I am optimistic that phase 3 will be amazing as long as any mistakes of phase 2 are noted and avoided in the future.

 

[InCali]

If any other, cheaper, better actor was as much of a draw as RDJ you can bet that's the guy Marvel would hire to play Tony Stark. They are not giving away huge (but in the norm of the industry) paychecks to RDJ out of goodwill.
The Judge did what it did because it's an indie drama with a limited international release and not exactly a broad appeal. The fact that it got lukewarm reviews probably didn't help either.
And both of RDJ's Holmes films grossed 500M+ worldwide (and the first went against Avatar, a small indie movie that didn't make a fuss).

Now I know I'm sorry to bring up once again facts and a bit of logic amongst someone's personal vendetta against the public face of the MCU. Still wondering what the guy did to your puppies 8ulk ?

Glad to hear a voice of reason. There are a LOT of factors that go into a movie's critical AND box office success and I think those can be differentiated. If you've got a good script, good director, and good actors, most likely a movie will be a critical success. Box office appeal goes beyond that and it needs to "hit" with the general public. Movies like The Judge don't normally go gangbusters at the box office. Sophie's Choice was way down on the box office list during the year it was released. Was it a "successful" movie? Actors do make a box office difference (IMO), but can't make a movie a box office smash without a lot of other factors coming together.

Also, there's no way to prove anything one way or the other because you can't compare the same movie to itself with a different director, actor, etc. at the same point in time. We have what are called "opinions" and it's something we would all do well to remember.

I have high hopes for phase 3 and will love to see a new Avengers team being built over the next few years.....that's my hope anyway.

 

[Wildcard]

I don't think Marvel intended for AoU to be 'filler' although they did want the movie to provide some links to phase 3.

They should be concerned about the quality of every movie though. AoU has had an overall 'average' critical response, and we don't know how Ant Man will be received yet. A lot of Marvel fans just appreciate good movies and this support will start to disappear (and box office will decline) if the quality of phase 2 movies like TWS and GOTG isn't upheld in phase 3.

I am optimistic that phase 3 will be amazing as long as any mistakes of phase 2 are noted and avoided in the future.

I think Marvel was really hoping to use Thanos for part two but when that wasn't the case, like you said, they still wanted a good film that could also connect to phase 3 but also realized it was a bit filler.

Still, the quality of any movie is the most important no matter if it's the MCCU or any other film/franchise. However, I have faith they'll continue to step it up.

I guarantee right now that's the basis of their meetings; how to make phase 3 stronger than the first two phases and how to strengthen their weak areas & improve on what they're already doing right.

 

[JKKS085]

Glad to hear a voice of reason. There are a LOT of factors that go into a movie's critical AND box office success and I think those can be differentiated. If you've got a good script, good director, and good actors, most likely a movie will be a critical success. Box office appeal goes beyond that and it needs to "hit" with the general public. Movies like The Judge don't normally go gangbusters at the box office. Sophie's Choice was way down on the box office list during the year it was released. Was it a "successful" movie? Actors do make a box office difference (IMO), but can't make a movie a box office smash without a lot of other factors coming together.

Also, there's no way to prove anything one way or the other because you can't compare the same movie to itself with a different director, actor, etc. at the same point in time. We have what are called "opinions" and it's something we would all do well to remember.

I have high hopes for phase 3 and will love to see a new Avengers team being built over the next few years.....that's my hope anyway.

One of my favorite movie of 2014 was Whiplash, the film was critically acclaimed worldwide, won three academy awards, more than 20 other international awards, and grossed ... 13M at the box office. Would anyone seriously say that Miles Teller or J.K Simmons should not get sizable paychecks from now on because they are generally not a "draw". No, of course not. The film did what it did because it was an intense indie drama about a young battery player and it wasn't made, or promoted for that matter, to be a 4 quadrant juggernaut with a broad appeal across all demos. On the matter, raw BO numbers say nothing about the films quality or the actors potential to draw audiences as part of a franchise with a strong brand recognition.

I do have high hopes for Phase 3 as well. The variety of characters and universes they intend to bring to the silver screen in the next 4 years is in and of itself a step up from Phase 2. I think AOU suffered to an extent from Phase 2 being mostly made of sequel, aside from GoTG, with no new character being built up in a solo film before his/her inclusion in the new roster. I hope that the perspective of seing the New Avengers + the Original Avengers + the Guardians of the Galaxy + all the new characters introduced in solo movies in Phase 3 (Doctor Strange, Black Panther, Spider-Man, Captain Marvel) will help make the Infinity War films, a once (or twice) in a lifetime event.

 

[Pond]

I think the problem is that many of you guys dont get that the threat to the world´s safety is not really the point of those big threats to the worlds safety. Whedon did exactly what he told you he would do. While the movie might be more spectacular in some action scenes and locations than the first movie, its essentially a smaller, more intimate, more personal and more painful story. Its the opposite of the fun air punching sense of wondder of the first.

And it still made this ammount of money? Thats great news. It took balls, and it took artistic risk (within certain raesonable context, they didnt went all Last Year in Marienbad on us), for a blockbuster to go exactly the opposite route of safe like this. Thats what makes Marvel special. I dont want them to change, polish theyre rough corner, yes, but i dont want them to try to be each years box office king nor to be the critics darling.

Both critics and viewers have failed great movies in the past. Spending a lot of money on a movie forces you to consider this things, but i rather feel they should focus on doing what they are doing: first and foremost, as many great movies as they can.

 

[Mad Ones]

Everything about this movie was safe.

 

[First Avenger]

I think the problem is that many of you guys dont get that the threat to the world´s safety is not really the point of those big threats to the worlds safety. Whedon did exactly what he told you he would do. While the movie might be more spectacular in some action scenes and locations than the first movie, its essentially a smaller, more intimate, more personal and more painful story. Its the opposite of the fun air punching sense of wondder of the first.

And it still made this ammount of money? Thats great news. It took balls, and it took artistic risk (within certain raesonable context, they didnt went all Last Year in Marienbad on us), for a blockbuster to go exactly the opposite route of safe like this. Thats what makes Marvel special. I dont want them to change, polish theyre rough corner, yes, but i dont want them to try to be each years box office king nor to be the critics darling.

Both critics and viewers have failed great movies in the past. Spending a lot of money on a movie forces you to consider this things, but i rather feel they should focus on doing what they are doing: first and foremost, as many great movies as they can.

Great post.100% agree.

 

[Green Goblin]

I don't think Infinity Wars or any other Marvel film will repeat Avenger's box office. You'll just never beat the excitement of characters together for the first time because, well, it's not the first time.

 

[flickchick85]

I think IW:Part 2 has a CHANCE of doing it, if they build it up properly with the preceding installments. But there's also a good chance it won't.

 

[KangConquers]

We're pretty much at a crawl at this point so I don't know why I'm doing this, but for anyone still interested:

Tuesday gross: $502,192

Domestic: $445,730,903
Foreign: $917,200,000
Global: $1,362,930,903

Japan should add another $40-60 M.

Final should be something like $455 DOM/ $975 Foreign/ $1.43 B worldwide.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think the Avengers franchise has reached the Harry Potter stage of BO fandom.

Where there are a lot of fans but they are the only fans who go out to see the films anymore. The amount of casual movie-goers going out to see it are lessened. I'd say the vast majority of JW's box-office came from the general audience non-specific fans.

The first Avengers film was more similar in that regards to JW.

 

[Spiderine]

I don't think Infinity Wars or any other Marvel film will repeat Avenger's box office. You'll just never beat the excitement of characters together for the first time because, well, it's not the first time.

I agree.

Being split into two parts won't help it either.

 

[Vincanws]

I agree.

Being split into two parts won't help it either.

If you mean it's one movie being split into two parts, you could argue it would help aka Infinity War. As one movie it will get 1.4bn x2 = 2.8bn for the whole movie. Genius that! A bit like when the made The Hobbit into x3 movies aka nearly x3 times the box office. t:

 

[Iceman]

It's risky though. If the first one flops you're in trouble. If The Hobbit didn't have so much goodwill leftover from LotR it would have been even riskier. And if it was straightforward every film would be split into 3.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Harry Potter Deathly Hollow's did pretty good despite being split into two and I think MCU has similar brand loyalty.

 

[Iceman]

I think IW1 can do AoU numbers at least and IW2 will do at least Avengers numbers (worldwide). China growth will make up the gap.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

There's a chance TA might keep it's second weekend record.

A small recent victory for MCU fans.

 

[JKKS085]

There's a chance TA might keep it's second weekend record.

A small recent victory for MCU fans.

I'd be surprised. With the week day numbers, a 29M Friday, Father's day ahead I don't think it will, unless maybe Inside Out takes a sizable chunk off its Saturday gross. But it'll likely outgross TA's second week end as well (even if it's just by a few hundred thousand dollars, Universal will fudge it if they have too).

No one should see this as a defeat though. The Avengers held both records for three straight years which is an impressive achievement with the evergrowing ticket price inflation. And records are meant to be broken. Although AOU should probably have been the one to do it.

AOU grossed an estimated $689,000 on Friday and is expected to make around 2.7M over the week end, easing 27%, possibly catching on Mad Max (after it leapfrogged Tomorrowland last week). The film is showing pretty good later legs in a very competitive environment.

 

[Spitfire]

Still, the quality of any movie is the most important no matter if it's the MCCU or any other film/franchise. However, I have faith they'll continue to step it up.

I guarantee right now that's the basis of their meetings; how to make phase 3 stronger than the first two phases and how to strengthen their weak areas & improve on what they're already doing right.

I was very disappointed with AoU but I share your positivity about the future. I think that Ant Man will be the key indicator of Marvels capacity to maintain the quality of its movies and build on previous success. Not so much box office, but more in terms of quality and the reception from fans and critics.

I hope that Marvel are meeting to address the weaknesses identified and build on what has gone well. I think the problem with AoU is that it ignored a lot of the excellent developments from phases 1 and 2 and introduced a few stories that no one really wanted to see (and didn't execute them well either).

I think IW:Part 2 has a CHANCE of doing it, if they build it up properly with the preceding installments. But there's also a good chance it won't.

There are a number of movies before IW and these all need to be good to maintain interest. If we get more IM2 and Thor 2 than GOTG or TWS then box office success isn't guaranteed.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Harry Potter Deathly Hollow's did pretty good despite being split into two and I think MCU has similar brand loyalty.

We also have to remember what Feige sayed that even though they are called IW 1&2 they are both self contained movies. There is also at least one MCU film in between it as well if I recall correctly.

On a weird side note one of the Marvel movies official Bookface page released a timeline of phase 3 and for some weird reason they didn't include Spider-Man but they still had the new correct date for the BP movie. I made a comment about it but they didn't respond. I found that to be very odd

 

[Lilbaz]

Think they would have been better off calling them Infinity Gauntlet and Infinity War. Parts 1 and 2 just screams rip off.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think people are getting sick of the Part 1 and 2 stuff.

 

[hafizbat]

Think they would have been better off calling them Infinity Gauntlet and Infinity War. Parts 1 and 2 just screams rip off.

That's not a bad idea.