Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JB33]

With a $451,436 gross on Monday, Age of Ultron has edged past the $445 million mark domestically.

Updated totals:

Domestic: $445,228,711
Overseas: $917,200,000
Total: $1,362,428,711

 

[JKKS085]

The problem isn't over with AoU, if we learned one thing from the 5 Spider-man movies, its that it takes great effort to keep the domestic box-office on the rise once you have achieved a bench mark, AoU already did 33% less than its predecessor, and the budget was 280M compared to TA's 220M

So the budget isn't going to fall with CW and IW 1 and 2, with actors salary rises, the quest for bigger CGI set pieces, more cast etc, that coupled with falling box-office returns can be toxic (even though IWs shooting back to back would save some money)

I think 'Civil War' would be the acid test for the franchise, if it does 1.3B plus, then Marvel can sit back with IWs, if lesser...Marvel would then need to focus on smaller properties

The BIG difference with the Spider-Man franchise is that Sony had to rely two times in a row on the Home Video market to turn a profit. This is not what we are talking about with the Avengers franchise so the diminishing returns on the domestic are not as crucial as they were for the "Amazing" franchise. Which ended up scrapped despite fans denial that the franchise was in bad shape (which is what I've been saying ever since TASM came out). No one needs to spin AOU numbers to show that the movie is going to be extremely profitable for Marvel Studios. And the sequels would need to decrease a lot more for the movies to reach a point where their profitability would be in question. The safety margin is still huge here.

As for the budget we're not going to argue over a few millions but if you go with Avengers at 220M, then the officially reported number for AOU is 250M. So more money but nor an outrageous number either for a film that is going to end up north of 1,4B WW and north of 450M dom.

Now I don't think Civil War needs to make 1.3B+ to be deemed successful. Despite the cast it is first and foremost a Captain America sequel and not an Avengers film so its only goal so far is to surpass The Winter Soldier's numbers. If it can reach IM3's number (1,2B+) it would be great but it being the first film in the Captain America franchise to gross over 1B is I think the target here.

 

[InCali]

You also have to remember that AoU was in May when kids were still in school versus now when everyone is out and on summer break. Plus, I'm sure a lot of it is due to people not getting into showings over the weekend and having to go on Monday instead.

Yeah. I pointed that out, but I was talking about the 1st Avenger movie. It grossed over $400M in the first 4 weekends alone (not counting weekdays). I think really good holds for JW in the next 2 weekends can happen. The pickings look pretty thin to me. Also, having kids out of school for a Dinosaur movie can be huge during the week. If Terminator isn't well received, there's nothing else for a couple of weeks after that (Ant-Man).

 

[InCali]

I've never been able to place an actor for Indy. Pratt (before JW) was the first guy who I've thought, yeah he could do it. Everyone involved deserves a tonne of credit for GotG, I'd say Pratt was the single most important contributor being the lead and human.

Agreed. He was the lead and did a terrific job. I'll bet he's not going to have any problems landing some action roles if he wants them. Indy would fit like an old shoe.

He's quite charming and is a very good actor to boot. Loved him in Moneyball and he's filming "The Magnificent Seven" right now I hear. Think anyone has him on speed dial? I'll bet his agent is grinning like the Cheshire Cat.

 

[Iceman]

Yep haha. I've hardly seen any of his films. Would like to see him in one of these roles that call for higher acting skills.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Kevin Feige has tweeted this amazing picture, congratulating the cast and crew of Jurassic World on their record breaking opening weekend.

https://www.facebook.com/MarvelCine....1434477548./1146658608684043/?type=3&theater

I wonder if he would've tweeted this had it been BvS that broke the record. t:

 

[dalonewolf]

I wonder if he would've tweeted this had it been BvS that broke the record. t:

I dont think so he'll probably want to prevent a fan war

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wonder if he would've tweeted this had it been BvS that broke the record. t:

He tweeted a congratulations because Jurassic World's success raises Chris Pratt's profile and in turn helps out Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Marvel is great at PR and making money.

 

[Tony Stark]

Also Marvel probably needs to stay on good terms with Universal, because the way the contracts run, if they ever plan another Hulk solo movie, they have to do it with Universal as distributor. Only when Hulk appears in other MCU films do they not need Universal's involvement.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Excellent point about Universal Tony Stark.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It's s tradition for the recent OW record holders to congratulate new OW record breakers.

There are similar cartoons where Lucas congratulated Spielberg when Spielberg got the record from Lucas.

I'm sure they can be found on google images.

 

[Bruce Malone]

They can be found on the SHH home page in the article.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

With a $451,436 gross on Monday, Age of Ultron has edged past the $445 million mark domestically.

Updated totals:

Domestic: $445,228,711
Overseas: $917,200,000
Total: $1,362,428,711

So if AOU makes another 10 million it will need around 35 million from Japan to hit 1.4 billion?

 

[marcvader]

It's 37 mil from 1.4.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It will hit 1.4bil but it has no chance at 1.5bil unless it somehow becomes a phenomenon in Japan.

 

[hafizbat]

He tweeted a congratulations because Jurassic World's success raises Chris Pratt's profile and in turn helps out Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Marvel is great at PR and making money.

So cynical, lol.

 

[dalonewolf]

Kevin Feige has tweeted this amazing picture, congratulating the cast and crew of Jurassic World on their record breaking opening weekend.

https://www.facebook.com/MarvelCine....1434477548./1146658608684043/?type=3&theater

I dont think that a lot of people didn't catch the t-rex is worthy lol

 

[Iceman]

Also Marvel probably needs to stay on good terms with Universal, because the way the contracts run, if they ever plan another Hulk solo movie, they have to do it with Universal as distributor. Only when Hulk appears in other MCU films do they not need Universal's involvement.

How about Hulk in the next Jurassic Park? t:

 

[universeman]

Is Feige telling us that Pratt will be taking over as the face of Marvel? when RDJ steps down? I see Pratt and the words next to him is king like King Pratt. t:

 

[Wildcard]

Yes, I think that will definitely be the plan now. Pratt has all of the components needed t do so, coupled with a high popularity that can't be ignored. Not to mention Star-Lord is immediately likable in much the same way Iron Man was so he's the reasonable choice for being the new face of MCCU.

There have been a lot of great performances in the MCCU & there are tons of great heroes but Pratt is the only actor to attain the popularity boost he has outside of a Marvel film.

He's already the new face of Marvel, even if they haven't directly said it yet.

 

[JOE]

At least 1.4B is a lock with Japan's upcoming release. It'll probably land just under 100M less WW than the first one. A lot better than I thought it'd do after viewing the movie.

 

[Vartha]

It will hit 1.4bil but it has no chance at 1.5bil unless it somehow becomes a phenomenon in Japan.

STILL for a 2nd Film that's not at ALL bad lol

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

STILL for a 2nd Film that's not at ALL bad lol

It's incredible for any franchise without Avatar in the title.

The fact that 3 movies could beat AOU's global take just means this year has had an abnormal amount of run away blockbusters.

Very few years have even one movie that crosses 1.4 billion. This year could have four.

 

[marcvader]

It's incredible for any franchise without Avatar in the title.

The fact that 3 movies could beat AOU's global take just means this year has had an abnormal amount of run away blockbusters.

Very few years have even one movie that crosses 1.4 billion. This year could have four.

This year will have four.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

STILL for a 2nd Film that's not at ALL bad lol

It's not bad at all.