Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm not afraid to admit that my prediction (lower end of $1.8 billion) was off but I think I made it shortly after GotG came out so figured the movie would build its BO total off that movie's momentum and TA1's performance. I'm just a bit disappointed that AoU was unable to grow past TA1's total. Still think it ends up at least coming close to TA1's total so I don't think it'll be a complete failure like some want to make it out to be.

It should get very close to TA total worldwide but domestically it's going to make nowhere near the first film. I predicted 1.6-1.8 billion so obviously neither of those numbers are going to happen but that's fine. You are going to often be wrong when predicting box office.

 

[marvellover]

After watching the movie,I cant say I am surprised in the box office as well as not happy with it

I still look forward to future MCU films but AOU let me down so much that I want it fail to meet the expectation

If Marvel only cares about money,they can keep going with Joss Whedon but they will lose a fan here

 

[Iceman]

Joss has already stopped making Avengers films (not sure if you know). The next 2 are being directed by the Russos.

 

[KangConquers]

So what are we looking at?

North America: $450 M
China: $250 M
Rest of the World: $800 M

 

[marvellover]

Joss has already stopped making Avengers films (not sure if you know). The next 2 are being directed by the Russos.

I know that,that's why I said I still look forward to future MCU films
GOTG and TWS are both very good movies and I enjoy them a lot more than AOU

And I am hyped as much as every MCU fan for the first MCU Spider man film

I hope Russo Bros will do their villains and hopefully Ultron justice if they bring him back in both IW films

 

[Vincanws]

After seeing the movie, I am really happy it's doing the business. It's already approaching $1.3 billion. If it makes $1.4-1.5 billion by the end this will be amazing. Marvel did an amazing job with this movie, they'll be really happy. Per the poll I always thought the 1.7 billion through 2 billion was unrealistic to be honest. I think 'some' people have stupid high expectations which are unwarranted and should be happy with the business it is doing.

 

[JOE]

So what are we looking at?

North America: $450 M
China: $250 M
Rest of the World: $800 M

So you think it's going to hit 1.5B?

 

[superion]

^^ In reality overtaking Frozen 1,27 bil WW is a 100% LOCK. A huge one actually.

In order to fail it will need MONSTEROUS drops which would make a world record.

AoU is only in its 4th weekend of release. It will definately make more than 1,27 bil.

Not only that im pretty sure it will overtake HP7 pt2 1,34 bil and reach 1,4 bil.

It has 50 mil left in US
25-50 left in China
Japan doesnt open until June
plus the rest of OS will add at least 50 mil.

In other words it has another 150-250 mil WW by the time it ends its run.

1,3 bil is the bare minium right now based on educated projections and 1,45 bil is the best it could make.

I just want it beat F7 worldwide. Can't stand those movies. As for the quality of the movie itself I didn't see that much difference in quality between the first one and the second. I think it was just people had extremely high expectations and all they got was more of the same. That's just the risk you take with sequels when the novelty factor wears off.

 

[rashad]

So what are we looking at?

North America: $450 M
China: $250 M
Rest of the World: $800 M

AOU's overseas gross is at $859m including the $210m from China (which is looking to finish around $230m). Excluding China it's only $649m from the rest of the world. Japan is the last market. And it's not making another $100m there. It will fall short of 1 billion overseas.

 

[rashad]

I just want it beat F7 worldwide. Can't stand those movies.

Sorry you're not a fan of the series but that's not happening.

 

[Iceman]

I'm disappointed with the overseas number minus China. Thought we would see growth there.

 

[KangConquers]

AOU's overseas gross is at $859m including the $210m from China (which is looking to finish around $230m). Excluding China it's only $649m from the rest of the world. Japan is the last market. And it's not making another $100m there. It will fall short of 1 billion overseas.

Your Chinese number is soft. $250 M seems to be where it's going.
Japan is tough, but it's worth noting that Age of Ultron has seen growth in all Asian markets. I wouldn't put $70 M out of the ball park for Japan, but I will go with a safer $60 M.
The rest of the world has about $40 M left. I calculate $35 M between the UK, Russia, Germany, France, Mexico, Brazil, and Australia.

I think it can get to $1 B foreign by the skin of it's teeth, but maybe not the $1.05 B I recently stated.

 

[KangConquers]

Double post.

 

[Raiden]

I'm disappointed with the overseas number minus China. Thought we would see growth there.

I read that some towns in Germany didn't show AOU due to the new charge implemented by Disney to movie theatres. I wonder if it had any impact at all to the foreign gross.

 

[JB33]

Updated 4-day Memorial Day weekend estimate:

BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 3h 3 hours ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON took in an estimated $27.81M over the 4-day weekend. Domestic total stands at $410.98M. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

 

[TalismanRing]

I'm disappointed with the overseas number minus China. Thought we would see growth there.

There's been growth in local currencies and admissions in many markets but a strong dollar and huge drops in local currencies has largely offset it. Still it will make about $50-100m more O/S than the first Avengers.

Example. In Mexico: AOU just passed IM3 in $s after selling about 35% more tickets. It will wind up selling about as many tickets or maybe more than Avengers but wind up at least 15% below.

In Columbia AOU has already passed Avengers in admissions but is about 32% behind in $s. ($11m vs $8.4m)

In Brazil, AOU has or will soon pass Avengers in local currency but is about $19m behind ($64m vs $45m)

In Russia AOU's sold I think 50% more tickets as Avengers and will finish about $9m and 20% behind.

More tickets sold in France, German, Italy etc but lower $ totals (Euro is down 20%+ against $ since 2012 and lowed 3D attendance didn't help)

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I read that some towns in Germany didn't show AOU due to the new charge implemented by Disney to movie theatres. I wonder if it had any impact at all to the foreign gross.

Or they were offended at the depiction of Strucker.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Calm down. Eat a snickers.

I was talking domestic, unless of course I wasn't, but I was. And yeah, $400million world wide, if that.

Thank you, I'm hilarious. Listen to my podcast.

Change your attitude, or don't post here. Disagreeing with people is fine. This condescending attitude is not. Clean it up.

 

[8ulk]

So what are we looking at?

North America: $450 M
China: $250 M
Rest of the World: $800 M

Sounds about right. The rest of the world might me sligthly lower. 775 mil or something. And China may be 240 or so.

We looking at 1,45-1,47 bil WW i think. Maybe 1,5.

At the end we may have a 3way battle for the noumber 3 spot of all time between Avengers , FF7 & Avengers AoU. Looks like a strong fight.

Place your bets.


P.S.

Avengers = 1518,6 bil
Furious 7 = 1499,7 bil and finishing the run
Avengers AoU = 1181,5 bil and counting

 

[Iceman]

There's been growth in local currencies and admissions in many markets but a strong dollar and huge drops in local currencies has largely offset it. Still it will make about $50-100m more O/S than the first Avengers.

Example. In Mexico: AOU just passed IM3 in $s after selling about 35% more tickets. It will wind up selling about as many tickets or maybe more than Avengers but wind up at least 15% below.

In Columbia AOU has already passed Avengers in admissions but is about 32% behind in $s. ($11m vs $8.4m)

In Brazil, AOU has or will soon pass Avengers in local currency but is about $19m behind ($64m vs $45m)

In Russia AOU's sold I think 50% more tickets as Avengers and will finish about $9m and 20% behind.

More tickets sold in France, German, Italy etc but lower $ totals (Euro is down 20%+ against $ since 2012 and lowed 3D attendance didn't help)

Oh yes I forgot all about the currency effects. Thanks for the specifics above

 

[Iceman]

I read that some towns in Germany didn't show AOU due to the new charge implemented by Disney to movie theatres. I wonder if it had any impact at all to the foreign gross.

Might have but it's only one territory. It was the smaller cinemas banding together I believe. Of course every little helps.

 

[KangConquers]

Sounds about right. The rest of the world might me sligthly lower. 775 mil or something. And China may be 240 or so.

We looking at 1,45-1,47 bil WW i think. Maybe 1,5.

At the end we may have a 3way battle for the noumber 3 spot of all time between Avengers , FF7 & Avengers AoU. Looks like a strong fight.

Place your bets.


P.S.

Avengers = 1518,6 bil
Furious 7 = 1499,7 bil and finishing the run
Avengers AoU = 1181,5 bil and counting

Furious 7 has slowed to a crawl. It's going to be a photo finish with Avengers.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, I'm not exactly sure why Whedon was obsessed about bringing Ultron to the big screen in the first place. Spader was brilliant as the person behind Ultron, but Ultron was sadly not as threatening as a villain as I had hoped it would.

I'd asssumed it was because it was his favourite villain and that he was going to do something amazing with him. Ultron in the end was not really much more memorable than the rest of Marvel's **** villains.

 

[Raiden]

I'd asssumed it was because it was his favourite villain and that he was going to do something amazing with him. Ultron in the end was not really much more memorable than the rest of Marvel's **** villains.

I always wonder why Marvel's villains aren't as compelling as we wish. Personally, I do think the villains in the comic books are about as equal as DC's, even though they don't have a Joker who is the most iconic villain in the entire DC rogue gallery. However, I think the lack of Dr. Doom and Magneto, as well as other villains from F4 and X-Men, definitely hurt the MCU rogue gallery. I doubt Feige ever mandated the writers to make sure the villains are as strong or as interesting as the heroes themselves, so it really come down to the writers' treatment of the villains in the Marvel movies. If they would just stop killing the villains in every movie, though, it would definitely help resolving this issue.

 

[marvellover]

True,Ultron deserves to survive for more than 1 movie

Loki is by far the most interesting and memorable villain MCU has ever put out