Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Iceman]

So it's really the US where the first film had a big one off blowout. I think future MCU event films can sustain AoU numbers long term.

 

[PunyGod]

...

 

[dalonewolf]

When you have a huge expectation you are only setting yourself up for disappointment.

That's why its probably not a good idea to make all these predictions about CW beating AoU. Because if it doesn't I guarantee you everyone will jump on it as a failure.

I think CW will preform more like gotg then aou but make about 50-60 mil more overall

 

[Leenie]

When you have a huge expectation you are only setting yourself up for disappointment.

That's why its probably not a good idea to make all these predictions about CW beating AoU. Because if it doesn't I guarantee you everyone will jump on it as a failure.

If CW is a better movie than AoU, then I can see it making more money (especially considering the vast amount of characters, including Spider-Man).

If CW doesn't make more money though, I'm not going to label the film as a failure. I don't take my predictions so seriously. I predict things just for the sake of it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree, I really do wish some would stop saying that Civil War is a lock to beat AOU, it is obnoxious to me. It is not a lock, at all, it's not even likely. A lot of people were saying that Age of Ultron was a lock to make 500+ million and it's not going to do that. You never know what's going to happen.

I mean if one wants to predict 500+mil for Civil War fine but know that 500mil is not easy to make, if it were Age of Ultron would be heading for that number.

 

[Arachnid]

I think Civil War has a good chance at cracking $1 billion. I won't try to put huge expectations on it, but $1 billion is pretty reasonable considering who is in the film (Iron Man, Bucky, Black Widow, Hawkeye, Scarlet Witch, Vision, Crossbones, Black Panther, Spidey)

Iron Man 3 was coming off a monster film in The Avengers but also a disappointing 2nd film in it's own franchise, Iron Man 2. It still made $1 billion quite easily.

Civil War is following another blockbuster in Age of Ultron and an absolutely fantastic film and solid box office hit in The Winter Soldier.

So Civil War could push close to $400 million domestically and $600 million overseas. But who knows. The overseas numbers could always be much higher than that. Iron Man 2 made only $311 million overseas and Iron Man 3 jumped up to $806 million after The Avengers!! The Winter Soldier made $455 million overseas and after that film being so good and after Age of Ultron, that $455 number could jump drastically (maybe up to $600 or $700 million)

 

[Pond]

If CW is a better movie than AoU,

That really is irrelevant. Even if its a terrible movie, it could reach AOU. Quality and box office... no relation at all.

 

[Best]

Haven't kept up at all. No lock on 1.4?

 

[Wildcard]

Last I checked AoU was at $1.321 so I'm certain it'll go beyond $1.4.

 

[Best]

No more, sorry.

 

[Spiderine]

Its funny how we are moving away from just reaching the billion dollar mark as being no longer a huge accomplishment. If this film was viewed as just being a Cap sequel then a billion would be phenomenal. But its looks like an Avengers film. Which means if it doesn't make similar numbers in the neighborhood of what AOU is doing a little more or less its going to get blasted.

Honestly, if I were making an early prediction right now, I would probably say around 1.2 billion on the low end. One thing for for sure is it should beat out IM3. I maybe just a bit skeptical because BatvsSupes will already have the superheroes at each other throats covered.

 

[JB33]

A couple updates from Monday:

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 2h2 hours ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON took in $1.08M on Monday. Domestic total stands at $428.63M. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 51m51 minutes ago
'Avengers: Age Of Ultron' to Cross $900 Million Overseas, Up to $1.3279 Billion Worldwide #Avengers #AgeOfUltron http://fb.me/56Xb0ycBE

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 45m45 minutes ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON $899.3M Overseas Total / $1.3279B Global Total #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

I thought it was random that Box Office was throwing in an overseas update on a Monday but it's because Disney themselves made a point of reporting that Avengers: Age of Ultron has passed the overseas gross of The Avengers.

 

[ctsketch]

No more, sorry.

What about Japan?

 

[warriorking]

Japan opens in July so look for 50 to 80 Million more ...
It will probably peak at around 450 Million if not a bit higher here in the States...
It will definitely cross the 1.4 Billion mark WW when all is said and done...

 

[JB33]

Japan opens in July so look for 50 to 80 Million more ...
It will probably peak at around 450 Million if not a bit higher here in the States...
It will definitely cross the 1.4 Billion mark WW when all is said and done...

These numbers are right in line with what I'm thinking. I think AoU will crawl to $450 here in North America and I had Japan pegged for about $50M as a safe estimate.

 

[Dark Raven]

How long will it take until AOU surpasses Harry Potter? Do people think it will?

 

[Docker2.0]

When it's released in Japan it will.



All I know is CA: CW will outgross A:AoU and F7.

 

[JB33]

How long will it take until AOU surpasses Harry Potter? Do people think it will?

After next weekend it will. It's only less than $20M behind now. After that, we pretty much watch the movie crawl until the Japanese release on July 4. Then we see how far Japan's box office can take it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think it's headed for around 455-460mil in the states.

 

[Docker2.0]

Congrads Marvel! They will have 2 movies in the top 5 of all time and 3 in the top 10. I would call that a success.

 

[JKKS085]

I think it's headed for around 455-460mil in the states.

Yes, 460M seems likely. At the same point of its run IM3 had another 23 millions in the tank. AOU dailies are now noticeably higher (0,750M for IM3 on its 32nd day of release, 1,082M for AOU) if it stays ahead in the coming weeks it should make it to 460M without too much problem. Anyways for those sweating over those numbers, pending the coming of the Apocalypse, 450M dom is a done deal.

And that is a disappointing number any way you look at it. I really can't believe that the movie will come up 100M short of the very low end of my predictions.

I can say that I didn't see that coming.
Biggest BO upset on my end since TDKR.

 

[dalonewolf]

Yes, 460M seems likely. At the same point of its run IM3 had another 23 millions in the tank. AOU dailies are now noticeably higher (0,750M for IM3 on its 32nd day of release, 1,082M for AOU) if it stays ahead in the coming weeks it should make it to 460M without too much problem. Anyways for those sweating over those numbers, pending the coming of the Apocalypse, 450M dom is a done deal.

And that is a disappointing number either way you look at it. I really can't believe that the movie will come up 100M short of the very low end of my predictions.

I can say that I didn't see that coming.
Biggest BO upset on my end since TDKR.

Yea but the sky isn't falling still a hell of a lot of money and enough to cover the budget back of the movie but still a 900 mil profit at this point
Is very good

 

[marcvader]

Any way I look at it it'll be abot 100 mil under what I was thinking this was going to end up with. No biggie. I figured it was going to do less domestic yet more abroad and it did do these things.

 

[Lorenzaccio]

In fact, with all the money gathered by this movie, and already accounting for expenses, marketing etc, they could very well finance another Avengers movie or 10 Netflix series, without having to spend new money from the Marvel/Disney bank-account. Or they could cover 5 Tomorrowland-like-semi-bomb losses.
I don't know what else qualifies as "success" in this waky world of movie predictions...

 

[ctsketch]

Who knew being in the top 5 of all time was disappointing?!