The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[writer0327]

The world may have been excited for TFA, but when we're talking about worldwide interest, including Asia, The MCU is a bit more popular from what I gather.

I think that has less to do with the quality of the last few SW films and more to do with The MCU having the advantage of being a younger, malleable , with more of a global appeal franchise than SW is. SW is also something that's sort have been passed down to generation after generation,while the MCU is something in which a whole new generation literally grew up in realtime with the films.

That's not to say SW isn't popular worldwide,because it is. I just don't think you're going to have the same overwhelming "This is a historic, cultural, milestone that you must see" type of event film Avengers Endgame has become, with The Rise of Skywalker as far as the global audience is concerned.

I think come December there will totally be alot of interest. Its early still,and right now people are focused on Marvel's achievement , and rightfully so imo.

SW fans will still be at each others throats as usual,but I think the GA is really gonna be hyped once December rolls around.

Nailed it. This generation's SW is beholden to its legacy, which ultimately hampers it. The MCU has been able to create its legacy as it's gone along. I'd say a fair comparison to the MCU popularity is the popularity of SW during its OT era run.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I'm guessing small success at best, full flop at worst. General audiences just don't give a you-know-what about this franchise anymore. There was a surge of hype surrounding the teaser, but it blew over and disappeared very quickly. People are reporting dead silence during the trailer when it played in front of Endgame. We're living in a day and age where a Star Wars movie is on the list of the biggest flops ever. Even Lucasfilm realizes the dire state of the franchise, because they cancelled all future movies and put the series on hiatus. This whole brand is hanging on by a thread, and a JJ Abrams movie isn't going to be the one to save it.

This entire post makes me very sad (not in the opinion expressed) but just the words and possible meaning or future of it. Especially the bolded bit.

 

[Kuwolski]

The key for SW in the future is Asia. The global box office is quickly becoming North America, China, and then everyone else. In ten years or so we can add India to that list. The MCU is fortunate to have gained a big footprint in the two countries with a billion + people. Lucasfilm needs to find a way to breakthrough in those countries. I think moving on past the Skywalker saga will be a big first step.

 

[writer0327]

This entire post makes me very sad (not in the opinion expressed) but just the words and possible meaning or future of it. Especially the bolded bit.

That's not really true though. SW is wildly popular in the states and mildly popular everywhere. The MCU is hugely popular in the US and worldwide and overseas. That's the biggest difference.

 

[Iceman]

The key for SW in the future is Asia. The global box office is quickly becoming North America, China, and then everyone else. In ten years or so we can add India to that list. The MCU is fortunate to have gained a big footprint in the two countries with a billion + people. Lucasfilm needs to find a way to breakthrough in those countries. I think moving on past the Skywalker saga will be a big first step.

It's hard to make that breakthrough now as 4 new films have already come and gone with the Star Wars name so in their eyes they will have tried the franchise and decided it's not for them (with the numbers there absolutely collapsing since TFA where there was some genuine excitement). A new start might be another opportunity but it's a high stakes game right now and they need to get it right next time. The more time passes without convincing Asia that SW is for them, the harder it is to ever convince them.

 

[writer0327]

The key for SW in the future is Asia. The global box office is quickly becoming North America, China, and then everyone else. In ten years or so we can add India to that list. The MCU is fortunate to have gained a big footprint in the two countries with a billion + people. Lucasfilm needs to find a way to breakthrough in those countries. I think moving on past the Skywalker saga will be a big first step.

Lucasfilm needs to move on from the Skywalkers in order to grow the franchise. But I don't know if or how they will ever appeal to the Chinese market. I think it has something to do with the Jedi and Sith mimicking knights and Samurai that turns them off, although I don't understand why. Big blockbuster films that do well in China seem to be about spectacle over substance.

 

[Kuwolski]

It's hard to make that breakthrough now as 4 new films have already come and gone with the Star Wars name so in their eyes they will have tried the franchise and decided it's not for them (with the numbers there absolutely collapsing since TFA where there was some genuine excitement). A new start might be another opportunity but it's a high stakes game right now and they need to get it right next time. The more time passes without convincing Asia that SW is for them, the harder it is to ever convince them.

Agreed, it won't be easy. I do think leaving the nostalgia behind and delivering something new (which even audiences in the West are increasingly asking for) will entice Asia to give the franchise a second look.

 

[Iceman]

Agreed, it won't be easy. I do think leaving the nostalgia behind and delivering something new (which even audiences in the West are increasingly asking for) will entice Asia to give the franchise a second look.

The next new start will be a big opportunity. They need to take it or people there will not give the next new start after that a fair chance.

 

[Iceman]

Lucasfilm needs to move on from the Skywalkers in order to grow the franchise. But I don't know if or how they will ever appeal to the Chinese market. I think it has something to do with the Jedi and Sith mimicking knights and Samurai that turns them off, although I don't understand why. Big blockbuster films that do well in China seem to be about spectacle over substance.

Spectacle is crucial, sure. Substance isn't as compulsory but something with substance isn't necessarily going to lose out as a result. So better to go with substance so that it appeals everywhere.

 

[Kuwolski]

Lucasfilm needs to move on from the Skywalkers in order to grow the franchise. But I don't know if or how they will ever appeal to the Chinese market. I think it has something to do with the Jedi and Sith mimicking knights and Samurai that turns them off, although I don't understand why. Big blockbuster films that do well in China seem to be about spectacle over substance.

I think all studios strategy in the future will be major investment in the three big markets first (NA, China and India around the corner) and how to gain long sustaining traction in those markets. It's increasingly becoming a three horse race. The goal will be to conquer all three, but even if you get two out of the three (which may not even include the US) then you can be a massive global franchise.

So even if China rejects Star Wars, capturing India's interest going forward can still make SW one of the biggest franchises in the world.

.

 

[Iceman]

I think all studios strategy in the future will be major investment in the three big markets first (NA, China and India around the corner) and how to gain long sustaining traction in those markets. It's increasingly becoming a three horse race. The goal will be to conquer all three, but even if you get two out of the three (which may not even include the US) then you can be a massive global franchise.

So even if China rejects Star Wars, capturing India's interest going forward can still make SW one of the biggest franchises in the world.

.

Best to plant the seeds now and the long term franchise will see huge rewards down the line. Look how fast China exploded onto the scene when it really got going. That kind of craziness is only possible in developing countries with a huge population that have the potential of moving into the middle classes and becoming cinema goers. Plus ticket price inflation can be much higher as a percentage in those countries too.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

'Galactic' movies

China
MCU Avengers: Endgame - $511,600,000 (results not final)
MCU Avengers: Infinity War - $359,543,153
Avatar - $204,129,854
MCU Captain Marvel - $154,070,663
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $124,159,138
MCU Thor: Ragnarok - $112,226,154
MCU Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $100,663,260
MCU Guardians of the Galaxy - $86,346,366
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $69,484,899
Star Trek Beyond - $65,170,090
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - $62,073,823
Star Trek Into Darkness - $57,045,659
MCU Thor: The Dark World - $55,340,000
Jupiter Ascending - $44,620,000
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $42,577,974
Solo: A Star Wars Story - $16,473,217

Solo made about 3.2% of the current Endgame totals in China. SW:TLJ is 8.3% of those current numbers.

 

[Gothamsknight]

I'm guessing small success at best, full flop at worst. General audiences just don't give a you-know-what about this franchise anymore. There was a surge of hype surrounding the teaser, but it blew over and disappeared very quickly. People are reporting dead silence during the trailer when it played in front of Endgame. We're living in a day and age where a Star Wars movie is on the list of the biggest flops ever. Even Lucasfilm realizes the dire state of the franchise, because they cancelled all future movies and put the series on hiatus. This whole brand is hanging on by a thread, and a JJ Abrams movie isn't going to be the one to save it.

You've hated both force awakens and last Jedi, yet you hang around here hating on a film that isn't out yet. No offense, but why should anybody think what you are saying is true when I and others have seen the opposite?

 

[Grootster]

You've hated both force awakens and last Jedi, yet you hang around here hating on a film that isn't out yet. No offense, but why should anybody think what you are saying is true when I and others have seen the opposite?

Actually, I don't hate either. I think TLJ is terrible, but I don't hate it. I find TFA to be mostly mediocre, with some good aspects. I would say I "strongly dislike" TLJ, and am somewhere between "enjoy" and "meh" about TFA.

I never said my guess was the "truth", I made it clear that it was just a guess. Not really even an educated one. If I could go back in time and tell you all Solo would be on the list of worst flops ever, I would probably get laughed at. But that's the world we live in now. I do think TROS will be bigger than Solo, but flopping/underpreforming is more than a possibility.

 

[Blade Hoarder]

In any other context Star Wars would lose the year. But with JJ ABRAMS at the helm, 3 billion is the floor baby. Don't be surprised if it makes 4 billion. Irrational? JJ is magic. JJ defies logic.

 

[writer0327]

The idea that the Star Wars brand is somehow "hanging on by a thread" is almost laughable. It may not be the biggest brand or franchise in the world at the moment, but let's not pretend that SW is not as a whole a humongous success.

Disney bought Lucasfilm for $4B. Even if they never made another Star Wars movie after TROS, from the TV series, cartoons, sales on merchandise, video games, etc., they've gotten an amazing return on their investment in 7 short years.

 

[Iceman]

In any other context Star Wars would lose the year. But with JJ ABRAMS at the helm, 3 billion is the floor baby. Don't be surprised if it makes 4 billion. Irrational? JJ is magic. JJ defies logic.

Yes, but not in Asia. To make those kinds of numbers without EG Asia numbers, it’s going to have to make 1.5-2b dom. And if JJ had made all 3 Episode films there would likely be all hype and no baggage going into RoS and things would be totally different. But JJ is making a sequel to a non-JJ film that wasn’t received as well as his original film, and there is always a knock on effect from the prior film for a sequel.

 

[Grootster]

In any other context Star Wars would lose the year. But with JJ ABRAMS at the helm, 3 billion is the floor baby. Don't be surprised if it makes 4 billion. Irrational? JJ is magic. JJ defies logic.

Absolutely not going to happen. I honestly doubt it will even make two billion. The last three Star Wars movies haven't even come close. Audiences are just too alienated at this point. Even The Force Awakens couldn't come close to three billion after a decade of anticipation, and that was before the controversy that TLJ caused. And that's not even accounting for the fact that these movies don't do well in China.

JJ does defy logic...in terms of storytelling. His storytelling ability isn't even that good, and now it's being paired with the talent that brought us the script for Batman v Superman.

 

[Iceman]

I’m expecting a number between TLJ and TFA worldwide.

 

[BatLobster]

I’m expecting a number between TLJ and TFA worldwide.

Which would put it right in line with the box office trajectory of both previous SW trilogies.

The SW franchise is going to have its ebbs and flows, but it's still an enormous piece of pop culture and will continue to be for a very long time. Galaxy's Edge alone would've made Disney's investment profitable even if there was nothing else.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

There was 6 years in between films during past trilogies of 3 movies and larger amounts of ticket price inflation. Now there's 5 movies in 4 years and comparatively very little price hikes.

Annual Average U.S. Ticket Price
1977 -> 1980 = +20.63%
1980 -> 1983 = +17.10%
1983 -> 1999 = +60.63%
1999 -> 2002 = +14.62%
2002 -> 2005 = +10.52%
2005 -> 2015 = +31.51%
2015 -> 2017 = +6.41%
2017 -> 2018 = +1.56%

http://natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/

 

[Frodo]

Nailed it. This generation's SW is beholden to its legacy, which ultimately hampers it. The MCU has been able to create its legacy as it's gone along. I'd say a fair comparison to the MCU popularity is the popularity of SW during its OT era run.

Yeah definitely. As much as alot of SW fans may not like to admit it, SW is old . Alot of the polarized debate over SW is among sw fans is 30 something to middle aged adults.

Not saying those are the only ones arguing about it , but it'd be hard to deny that they don't make up a portion of the two sides of the fandom battling it out who've either loved or hated the new films.

While they are younger fans, i.e. children who like SW, it really isn't a property for their generation. Its something they've inherited as opposed to the MCU which is theirs and not their parents or their grandparents's property.

As critical as I am of Lucasfilm's handling of the recent films, I do respect the position that they're in of having to serve two masters at once.

When you're not dealing with a property like Batman, Superman, etc , which can be rebooted time and time again , you have to do a balancing act of keeping the older fans engaged while at the same time attracting younger fans with new material.

With a 40 year old ongoing continuity, its alot tougher than if the SW saga had been rebooted a couple times since 1977.

 

[Iceman]

Which would put it right in line with the box office trajectory of both previous SW trilogies.

The SW franchise is going to have its ebbs and flows, but it's still an enormous piece of pop culture and will continue to be for a very long time. Galaxy's Edge alone would've made Disney's investment profitable even if there was nothing else.

SW is going to be the biggest thing of all to a huge chunk of fans for life regardless of what else comes out. It is the franchise that marked the launch of the original franchise mega-blockbuster.

I think there have been many missed opportunities for the franchise to kick on even further with both sequel trilogies and the spinoff plans, but there is still enough goodwill for more chances to explode in future. I think only Asia is a little different where they need to get it right with the next set of films or risk struggling to ever breakout there.

 

[Lilbaz]

Yeah definitely. As much as alot of SW fans may not like to admit it, SW is old . Alot of the polarized debate over SW is among sw fans is 30 something to middle aged adults.

Not saying those are the only ones arguing about it , but it'd be hard to deny that they don't make up a portion of the two sides of the fandom battling it out who've either loved or hated the new films.

While they are younger fans, i.e. children who like SW, it really isn't a property for their generation. Its something they've inherited as opposed to the MCU which is theirs and not their parents or their grandparents's property.

As critical as I am of Lucasfilm's handling of the recent films, I do respect the position that they're in of having to serve two masters at once.

When you're not dealing with a property like Batman, Superman, etc , which can be rebooted time and time again , you have to do a balancing act of keeping the older fans engaged while at the same time attracting younger fans with new material.

With a 40 year old ongoing continuity, its alot tougher than if the SW saga had been rebooted a couple times since 1977.

Tfa made $2bn at the box office. If it and tlj were better received then we wouldn't be having this conversation. The truth is that most star wars films aren't that good. So it loses popularity.

 

[Frodo]

Tfa made $2bn at the box office. If it and tlj were better received then we wouldn't be having this conversation. The truth is that most star wars films aren't that good. So it loses popularity.

I'm personally not prepared to go there in terms of the quality of the film in relation to popularity in terms of worldwide audiences. I really do think that the MCU being fresher and made for a new generation has more to do with the MCU potentially being more popular than SW at the moment.

SW is still a popular property to be sure, but it is old, much like Bond is old , Superman is Old and Batman is old. That doesn't mean that they're aren't devoted fans and people world wide who enjoy it and considered it iconic . It was groundbreaking in its time and lay the ground work for big blockbuster film-making , in the past.

Today Feige and Marvel Studios have achieved a new paradigm and created a new standard which will influences young filmmakers and producers in the years to come; much in the way Lucas and Lucasfilm did before them.