The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Steelsheen]

'Don't be afraid to dream a little bigger darling'. t: 700m global is certain (barring world catastrophe (& maybe even then!)) given the pace it's going at. 300m domestic & 400m overseas would be 700m! Peanuts my friend lol. I think it's going to be well clear of $500m by this weekend with months left to 'double up'.

Oh yes, this thing's gonna hit a billion.

well given that i want to quote myself again sometime in the near future i went with the conservative estimate

i have to see how other big movies like ASM, TDKR and Prometheus would do to dent the market and pull away $$$ from Avengers before i can hedge my bets on the $1B mark. also once those big named movies come out some cineplexes in the international market actually stop screening one movie so they can flood the market with the next big title (stupid i know ). then of course theres that big drop from opening weekend that have yet to be calculated. so i'm considering as many factors both international and domestic on how realistic that $1B goal really is.

 

[Gamma Burst]

The floor right now is 900M world wide, and that's if the thing falls apart in the following weeks. The celing depends on how well it does internationally 2nd week and how well it holds up against Battleship and other competition.

Agreed.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The floor is a billion.

No way it doesn't make it past 350 domestic and 650 overseas.

 

[Xeno]

If the Avengers open with 200mil then The Dark Knight Rises will have a 250mil opening weekend.

Why did you even need to go there? We've been warned multiple times not to start up a Marvel/DC - Avenger/TDKR war in these threads. Bringing up one movie on the other's forum is completely unnecessary.

 

[Iceman]

well given that i want to quote myself again sometime in the near future i went with the conservative estimate

i have to see how other big movies like ASM, TDKR and Prometheus would do to dent the market and pull away $$$ from Avengers before i can hedge my bets on the $1B mark. also once those big named movies come out some cineplexes in the international market actually stop screening one movie so they can flood the market with the next big title (stupid i know ). then of course theres that big drop from opening weekend that have yet to be calculated. so i'm considering as many factors both international and domestic on how realistic that $1B goal really is.

700 ain't conservative mate, it's yesterday! t: I can see why people might back off from $1BN though (not me). Those movies you mention are way too far down the line to have an impact (June & July). Dark Shadows, Battleship & MiB3 are the ones that are close enough.

 

[Chewy]

Remember when this thread was in its infancy and people kept saying this would do only $100M or so more than Iron Man 2 overseas?

 

[Shadowlord X]

The floor is a billion.

No way it doesn't make it past 350 domestic and 650 overseas.

Exactly!!!!!!!

 

[TheGambler]

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=174907

What does mtc stand for?

 

[Shadowlord X]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-shocker-avengers-pacing-500-million-globally-318568

May I at least have some mayonnaise with my crow?

We have ketchup, mayonnaise, mustard, garlic sauce, oyster sauce, and from the exotic Caribbean, tamarind sauce (delicious!).

Respect to you for that.

 

[Chewy]

What does mtc stand for?

Movie Theater Chain

 

[Tony Stark]

What does mtc stand for?

box office tracking. I'm not sure I'm buying those numbers. They've been wrong before.

 

[marcvader]

Hollywood Reporter states its tracking $150+. I don't know how acurate that is but that seems more reasonable to me.

 

[Steelsheen]

700 ain't conservative mate, it's yesterday! t: I can see why people might back off from $1BN though (not me). Those movies you mention are way too far down the line to have an impact (June & July). Dark Shadows, Battleship & MiB3 are the ones that are close enough.

well you are the optimist i'll give you that t:

i want to see the dreaded percentage drop first, because everything is front loaded right now. i know how good this movie is so i know it will do repeat business, but just by how much is hard to tell at this point it time. i know projections right now is that its $500M globally by Sunday. if this baby clocks anywhere in the neighborhood of $700M by the time Mothers Day weekend rolls around... then i'll reassess my estimates, by then i would be able to see the trending for the rest of the summer including the effects of other highly anticipated movies.

 

[Marvin]

I happen to think TA faces some pretty petty competition this month. It should fare well. If TA was opening say May 2007 it would be a different story.

I agree with Decoy, there is no way it doesn't hit 350 domestic and 650 overseas. This is Marvel's perfect storm moment. I fear it may be their last too.

 

[flickchick85]

box office tracking. I'm not sure I'm buying those numbers. They've been wrong before.

Must be a different tracking company or something because THR and Deadline both said it was tracking at 150m+.

 

[Tony Stark]

I happen to think TA faces some pretty petty competition this month. It should fare well. If TA was opening say May 2007 it would be a different story.

I agree with Decoy, there is no way it doesn't hit 350 domestic and 650 overseas. This is Marvel's perfect storm moment. I fear it may be their last too.

May 2007 would have been way tougher competition. Spidey 3, Shrek 3, POTC3.

 

[Chewy]

I happen to think TA faces some pretty petty competition this month. It should fare well. If TA was opening say May 2007 it would be a different story.

I agree with Decoy, there is no way it doesn't hit 350 domestic and 650 overseas. This is Marvel's perfect storm moment. I fear it may be their last too.

Womp womp

 

[TheGambler]

Movie Theater Chain

box office tracking. I'm not sure I'm buying those numbers. They've been wrong before.

Thanks. Yeah, I mean, I said this before, but The Hunger Games was tracking for $70m OW 3 weeks before the release, and then $90m a week before the release. The first tracking for Avengers suggested $125m+, the second tracking said north of $150m. I think it will be somewhere in between, though I would love to see it overperform. $155m would be great.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Must be a different tracking company or something because THR and Deadline both said it was tracking at 150m+.

Hunger Games was tracking around 125 m.

It made 152 m OW.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I happen to think TA faces some pretty petty competition this month. It should fare well. If TA was opening say May 2007 it would be a different story.

I agree with Decoy, there is no way it doesn't hit 350 domestic and 650 overseas. This is Marvel's perfect storm moment. I fear it may be their last too.

I'm not worried about Avengers 2 and 3.

Barring some disaster they will do just fine.

 

[Gamma Burst]

I happen to think TA faces some pretty petty competition this month. It should fare well. If TA was opening say May 2007 it would be a different story.

I agree with Decoy, there is no way it doesn't hit 350 domestic and 650 overseas. This is Marvel's perfect storm moment. I fear it may be their last too.

It won't be.

 

[Marvin]

[/b]

It won't be.

The chances of both Joss and RDJ still being down and the great date and the film being the first of it's kind among other things are about 50/50 going forward.

Lest of course there is another Heath type situation(which would suck actually).

This is Marvel's moment and I'm happy for them. I just hope they don't look back(cause I honestly can't watch any of the previous films anymore).

 

[Xeno]

The chances of both Joss and RDJ still being down and the great date and the film being the first of it's kind among other things are about 50/50 going forward.

Lest of course there is another Heath type situation(which would suck actually).

This is Marvel's moment and I'm happy for them. I just hope they don't look back(cause I honestly can't watch any of the previous films anymore).

First off, it's extremely crass to bring Ledger's death up in this context. Second, I was given to understand that it had nothing to do with TDK's box office numbers. Are you saying that isn't true?

 

[Marvin]

huh? Crass?

I simply said that would be a factor if it were happen. I also made the comment that it wouldn't be a good thing in the grand scheme of things. I can show you crass.

Secondly, I'm not about to contribute to that TDK box office conversation. You can believe what you want, as I'm sure you already do. I will say this though, If The Avengers was RDJ's last performance due to some sort of substance overdose, the buzz for this film would be off the charts, period. I doubt we'd even be discussing 1billion in the way we are now.

 

[Xeno]

huh? Crass?

I simply said that would be a factor if it were happen. I also made the comment that it wouldn't be a good thing in the grand scheme of things. I can show you crass.

Secondly, I'm not about to contribute to that TDK box office conversation. You can believe what you want, as I'm sure you already do. I will say this though, If The Avengers was RDJ's last performance due to some sort of substance overdose, the buzz for this film would be off the charts, period.

You did show me crass.