The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[bonzob2000]

140-150 would still be pretty great, especially with the international take and what are sure to be solid legs. There is no way this movie loses money.

 

[Suzanne78]

It sounds like it'll make it's budget back by tomorrow. I forgot how much a movie needs to get back in the black for a studio.

Yeah, normally I would think $140-$150 would be fantastic, but since we've all been talking up anywhere from $160-200 and projections are going north of $150, would anything less be seen as a failure? I wouldn't think so, but in other circles it might.

I absolutely cannot wait for my Friday night showing. I'm contributing around $15 to the Avengers cause.

 

[Xeno]

Ach! Silly BoxOffice.com forums are getting me worried, with the recent 140 MTC (major theater chain) tracking that TA may open lower, like between $140-150.

Maybe I'm reading way too many of the (few) negative reviews and whatnot. I'm just imagining this board self immolating if it doesn't meet our expectations.

We'll know by the end of the weekend so why fret about it? All that matters now are the real numbers, not the predictions. At this point all people are doing is talking for the hell of it.


The Avengers has gotten 103 reviews on RT, with 97 of those being positive. The positives are what I like to pay attention to, particularly when they outnumber the negatives so overwhelmingly.

 

[Suzanne78]

We'll know by the end of the weekend so why fret about it? All that matters now are the real numbers, not the predictions. At this point all people are doing is talking for the hell of it.


The Avengers has gotten 103 reviews on RT, with 97 of those being positive. The positives are what I like to pay attention to, particularly when they outnumber the negatives so overwhelmingly.

Fretting is what we do best around here, don'tcha know t: And the stats are even better with the Top Critics, even if there are one or two negative reviews in that pile.

 

[Guerrilla]

Were there a lot of people at your screening?

There might have been 5 empty seats.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Ach! Silly BoxOffice.com forums are getting me worried, with the recent 140 MTC (major theater chain) tracking that TA may open lower, like between $140-150.

Maybe I'm reading way too many of the (few) negative reviews and whatnot. I'm just imagining this board self immolating if it doesn't meet our expectations.

Eh, they're just worried because they don't have the safety net to hedge their bets. The midnight openings aren't selling out as big as they wished, which means that the movie has to rely more on walk-ins to do big business.

 

[Tony Stark]

Even if it only pulled in 140-150, that's in the top 5 opening weekends. MTC has been off many times. Infact earlier this year they predicted for The Devil Inside (a film almost no one went to see) a 17.1M open and the film pulled in over 33M.

 

[bonzob2000]

I also think that even if the midnights are weak, the word of mouth with be strong enough for a far better than average Sunday as people start to hear how good it is.

 

[Marvin]

I guessed 153mill
If I'm wrong, I'm hoping it does more.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The real money for this movie will have to come in subsequent weekends no matter how big the opening.

I think one of the twillight films opened with 120 million and still didn't gross 300. Not going to happen to avengers of course but if it comes to approaching 400 million it needs good legs even with a 150 million debut.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

There might have been 5 empty seats.

Great to hear. t:

 

[04nbod]

when is the top 10 UK box office going to be up?

its 3 days after week ending 29 april

put it up already mojo!

£15,778,074 / $25,518,667

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/movies/...rs-torpedoes-battleship-at-uk-box-office.html

Don't know if that includes Thursday.

 

[BigThor]

Just got back from an advanced screening, incredible!!

It will do a billion, IMO.

That's an awesome gif, I wish Loki was able to create force fields in the actual movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's really fun watching people's inner nolanite come out as they feel threatened by THE AVENGERS potential success.

lol Nolanite's constantly defend his films when people lay down any criticism of them and love Batman Begins. I don't qualify but it's cute that someone thinks that I do just because I made a prediction based on facts and not fanboyism.

Marvel v. DC is something that losers engage in, I'm talking about Box office numbers. Avengers will do fine and so will Batman, I just happen to think that Batman will do better domestically because of well... history. If I'm wrong (I won't be), no skin off my back.

Anyway I think I predicted 148mil but I'll bump that up to 155mil and call it an afternoon.

 

[Scarlettess]

Sorry if this is old news but business week has put an article up today with updates on the Avengers Box Office.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-02/avengers-chases-hunger-games-as-forecasts-hit-record

Industry tracking puts the opening at $150 million-plus, the Hollywood Reporter said on May 1. Analysts are more bullish, with two including Contrino suggesting the movie may exceed the all-time weekend mark of $169.2 million set last year by the final “Harry Potter” film.

Enthusiasm for the film’s prospects is based in part on Facebook and Twitter activity. As of yesterday, “The Avengers” had 1.33 million “likes” on its official Facebook page and had generated 45,936 Twitter tweets. On the Monday before it hit theaters, “The Hunger Games’ had 2.99 million likes and had generated 34,476 tweets.

At Fandango.com, the ticket-sales website owned by Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) (CMCSA), ‘‘The Avengers’’ accounted for about 91 percent of total purchases yesterday. At the same time in March, ‘‘The Hunger Games’’ generated 92 percent of sales, according to releases from the company.

 

[TheGambler]

Ach! Silly BoxOffice.com forums are getting me worried, with the recent 140 MTC (major theater chain) tracking that TA may open lower, like between $140-150.

Maybe I'm reading way too many of the (few) negative reviews and whatnot. I'm just imagining this board self immolating if it doesn't meet our expectations.

We shouldn't put $140m OW as a "not good enough" debut. That is a big number. It's good to have expectations, but let's not get carried away. If $150m+ happens, awesome. By now, everyone knows $150m OW is hard to reach, not to mention anything over $160m. Saying that, good buzz and huge hype for Avengers guarantee a big opening weekend.

 

[redfirebird2008]

IM2 ticket sales plus 3D boost would be around $150m opening. Would be very surprising if it doesn't at least sell as many tickets as IM2.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think the midnight showings will underperform though, but the entire weekend should be good. May is notoriously bad for midnight showings especially in the first 2-3 weeks. Mainly because this is getting to be finals time for the 18-25 crowd, the ones that mostly populate the midnight showings.

IM2 did 7.5M in midnight showings, I think with 3D boost Avengers may be in the 10-15M range, but I don't think this will be with the Potter/Twilight/TDK/Hunger Games totals of around 18-20M

I also don't think Avengers is a particular midnight attraction as alot of the core audience is under 18 and over 25, and more of a family demographic. That combined with bad May showings for midnight premiers, don't freak out if the midnight take is not as high.

Also this is the first May opening since the first Iron Man that won't suffer from the Mothers Day drop.

 

[kurac]

i really cant believe that some of you are discussing and wishing RDJ to be replaced because of his age.guy looks amazing,and he will look like this for next 10 years easily.and you do know that samuel l jackson is 64 right??
not to mention that RDJ said that things are going well and that he will be doing this for long time

 

[Suzanne78]

I think the midnight showings will underperform though, but the entire weekend should be good. May is notoriously bad for midnight showings especially in the first 2-3 weeks. Mainly because this is getting to be finals time for the 18-25 crowd, the ones that mostly populate the midnight showings.

IM2 did 7.5M in midnight showings, I think with 3D boost Avengers may be in the 10-15M range, but I don't think this will be with the Potter/Twilight/TDK/Hunger Games totals of around 18-20M

I also don't think Avengers is a particular midnight attraction as alot of the core audience is under 18 and over 25, and more of a family demographic. That combined with bad May showings for midnight premiers, don't freak out if the midnight take is not as high.

Also this is the first May opening since the first Iron Man that won't suffer from the Mothers Day drop.

That's the sense I'm starting to get. The AMC marathons that are already sold out notwithstanding, there won't be a tremendous rush to see this movie at midnight like there was with Harry Potter and Twilight and THG. What I'm then hoping for is a bigger Saturday and Sunday to make up the deficit.

$10-$15 MID sounds well within expectations for this movie.

 

[kurac]

also avengers are opening 160+ easily this weekend and 1.1 bil is a sure thing.thats 100%

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

IM2 ticket sales plus 3D boost would be around $150m opening. Would be very surprising if it doesn't at least sell as many tickets as IM2.

Yeah the hype is way bigger for Avengers than IM2.

Avengers should sell far more tickets OW and beyond.

 

[redfirebird2008]

That's the sense I'm starting to get. The AMC marathons that are already sold out notwithstanding, there won't be a tremendous rush to see this movie at midnight like there was with Harry Potter and Twilight and THG. What I'm then hoping for is a bigger Saturday and Sunday to make up the deficit.

$10-$15 MID sounds well within expectations for this movie.

It'll make up a lot of ground on regular Friday shows and obviously Saturday shows. Sunday is tough at this time of year since kids are still in school. SM3 dropped 22% and IM1 dropped 30% on their first Sundays. I would expect something in the same neighborhood for Avengers.

 

[spider-neil]

is there a reason there are over 2,000 people viewing this forum.
in the week the batman forum had 800 people viewing the forum but that was the release of the new trailer. so what gives?

 

[Donut]

is there a reason there are over 2,000 people viewing this forum.
in the week the batman forum had 800 people viewing the forum but that was the release of the new trailer. so what gives?

Maybe people are excited about seeing the movie this weekend ?