The "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) thread - Part 8

[Willie Lumpkin]

Obviously, these days anything less than £100mil for a supposedly 'big' CBM doesn't look good

This is exactly my concern. At the time of the contracts, a $30 million budget minimum, for example may have seemed reasonable to ensure they're not just making a throw-away film. But in today's world, a $30 million superhero film would be crap compared to the competition.

I'm curious if the Trank rumors could have any impact on any invocation of a quality clause. If there is any general language that would allow them to make a claim if things go off the rails, a grossly incompetent and/or disinterested director would seem to be grounds.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think Fox is willingly to give back the F4 rights, no fuss........ but in exchange for merchandising for the X-Men films, and live action TV rights.

Whether Marvel will agree to it or not is another story. But with it unlikely that they'll get the X-Men rights any time soon....... they just might, if they haven't already.

I've always seen this as the obvious bargaining chip, but I'm sure that would have been discussed at some point and Marvel must not have been willing to give whatever Fox was asking.

I think the problem is Marvel doesn't want to give anything up and they realize if they can just wait Fox out, eventually they'll get the FF rights back without giving anything up.

And once Marvel gets FF back, X-Men will be next. It may be a long while, and it's a little hard to imagine X-Men ever reverting, but the lack of merchandising will always be a disincentive for Fox to put as much into X-Men as they would if they had total control.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Here's something that's completely ridiculous but would make an interesting story:

Disney: Hey Josh, how would you like to direct one of the stand-alone Star Wars films?

JT: That would be awesome!

Disney: Okay, it's yours, but here's the catch . . . *whisper, whisper, whisper*

Cut to interior FF Soundstage.

Assistant Director: Hey, has anyone seen Josh?

Cameraman1: Last I saw he was doing lines of coke off a stripper's boobs and saying anyone who didn't like it could suck his . . .

 

[Zarex]

I've maintained for months that Fox wants nothing to do with FF and is only releasing this film to hold on to the rights, and have the leverage they didn't have for negotiations prior to production.

That said, I'm gonna throw out this theory:

I think Fox is willingly to give back the F4 rights, no fuss........ but in exchange for merchandising for the X-Men films, and live action TV rights. Whether Marvel will agree to it or not is another story. But with it unlikely that they'll get the X-Men film rights any time soon....... they just might, if they haven't already.

But at the moment, Marvel is in position to reacquire Spider-Man AND F4 (near simultaneously), and would be foolish to turn down such an offer.

Sony is in disarray and will either cut a deal with Marvel to share/co-produce Spidey films, or flat out relinquish the rights if they can't get their house in order, which is looking more and more unlikely in the aftermath of ASM2, and with their plans for S6 and spinoffs looking less likely with each day. And the recent hack that crippled their entire company (film division included) doesn't help.

And in the case of F4, we already know how unlikely this franchise is to have a future under Fox, and how much Marvel would love to have it back. And if getting the latter back meant sacrificing even more control over the X-franchise (which as mentioned before, is unlikely to ever come back to Marvel), then I think they would.

Plus...... of those Big 3 franchises that are still licensed by other studios, X-Men is the franchise they need the LEAST in regards to the MCU, whereas Fantastic Four is what they need the MOST moving forward.

The problem is that by relinquising the merchandising and TV rights, you are strengthening a competitor in FOX's X-Franchise. Marvel and Disney already have to be wary of DC's huge slate of TV and film releases, along with the big merchandise push as we come closer to the Justice League release. Do they want to risk FOX reinvigorating the X-Franchise with TV shows, tie in merchandise, etc and potentially cutting into the Mouse's profits?

Is the price for getting back the FF family of characters worth potentially adding an additional competitor in the very crowded market for superhero related product? My guess is no. Apocalypse may struggle to retain the audience gains from having the OT cast in DOFP, and both Deadpool and a Gambit solo are far from sure things. Disney and Marvel would likely prefer to wait until FOX is desperate before making a deal.

 

[Orba]

Even if this film flops, and Fox retains the rights for another 7 years, I still see them trying to pull this trick again when the time comes to revert. This has been the history of the Fantastic Four movies on film. Always underlying it is the primary driving force of preventing the rights from reverting instead of actually making a good FF movie. Since that is the priority, no wonder it always turns out this way. And why would we expect Fox to do any differently in 7 years time or to even hand over the rights to Marvel after FFINO flops?

I think it all depends on just how badly this production does. As it stands we are expecting a $30-50 million budget plus a few more million on basic advertising. So as it stands the film still needs to make that money basic from their cut of the box office, but that is not guaranteed, Jonah Hex only made about $10 million on a budget of about $50 million.

Fox keeping the rights alive with low budget productions is built around them being able to make back that budget, if they can't then that tactic is lost. As it stands a small profit is better than loosing the rights as far as Fox are concerned. But if it becomes a case of loosing the rights or loosing money on the productions then Fox will have to change their strategy.

So in 7 years time (if a deal hasn't been done by then) then Fox will only do another reboot if this production is a (small) success.

 

[starscream22]

I've maintained for months that Fox wants nothing to do with FF and is only releasing this film to hold on to the rights, and have the leverage they didn't have for negotiations prior to production.

That said, I'm gonna throw out this theory:

I think Fox is willing to give back the F4 rights, no fuss........ but in exchange for merchandising for the X-Men films, and live action TV rights. Whether Marvel will agree to it or not is another story. But with it unlikely that they'll get the X-Men film rights any time soon....... they just might, if they haven't already.

But at the moment, Marvel is in position to reacquire Spider-Man AND F4 (near simultaneously), and would be foolish to turn down such an offer.

Sony is in disarray and will either cut a deal with Marvel to share/co-produce Spidey films, or flat out relinquish the rights if they can't get their house in order, which is looking more and more unlikely in the aftermath of ASM2, and with their plans for S6 and spinoffs looking less likely with each day. And the recent hack that crippled their entire company (film division included) doesn't help.

And in the case of F4, we already know how unlikely this franchise is to have a future under Fox, and how much Marvel would love to have it back. And if getting the latter back meant sacrificing even more control over the X-franchise (which as mentioned before, is unlikely to ever come back to Marvel), then I think they would.

Plus...... of those Big 3 franchises that are still licensed by other studios, X-Men is the franchise they need the LEAST in regards to the MCU, whereas Fantastic Four is what they need the MOST moving forward.

This is really thought provoking...

On one hand Sony just might be forced to cave in light of that hack. But Fox on the other hand is Disney's biggest problem. And since I doubt Marvel wants to sacrifice one franchise in exchange for the other I can understand their reluctance. They want it ALL back and have nothing else to do with Fox. So giving Fox X-men merchandising and T.V. rights could seal the franchise's fate forever. Sure you could assume that being the case now but Marvel could at least sleep a little better knowing that Fox can't pilfer as much from the franchises they own as they could if Disney gives them more to play with.

So I don't think they should play ball either if that's FOX's goal. X-men as a whole has the potential to make as much as Avengers does on film and sell as much merchandise as Spider-man does. So why give that to FOX for F4 if you're not really starving w/o it? I'd continue to work around it while gambling on Fox screwing up more than they succeed.

They'll have the rights but they won't be making much from it and crap like this reboot will continue to tarnish their name. Meanwhile Marvel will be making a killing and the people still wary of Fox's Marvel films will have other films to look forward to.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

I think they can play the waiting game with X-Men anyway. I have seen it suggested (nothing official) that this stuff was licensed out in perpetuity but I don't believe even Arad would have been that shortsighted. Anybody with half a brain should realize after 30 years you might want to get your crap back if only to renegotiate the terms. I would not be surprised if it all reverted back sometime around the middle of the next decade (2025-ish)

 

[Zarex]

I think they can play the waiting game with X-Men anyway. I have seen it suggested (nothing official) that this stuff was licensed out in perpetuity but I don't believe even Arad would have been that shortsighted. Anybody with half a brain should realize after 30 years you might want to get your crap back if only to renegotiate the terms. I would not be surprised if it all reverted back sometime around the middle of the next decade (2025-ish)

I disagree. In Avi's defense, he was in a very weak negotiating position in trying to launch a franchise that had just been introduced to the general public through the animated series and the arcade game.

Though he made better deals after the 1993 agreement, Arad - who as a former toymaker was more interested in merchandising revenue than box office points - got completely taken to school by the FOX negotiators.

 

[Orba]

I disagree. In Avi's defense, he was in a very weak negotiating position in trying to launch a franchise that had just been introduced to the general public through the animated series and the arcade game.

Though he made better deals after the 1993 agreement, Arad - who as a former toymaker was more interested in merchandising revenue than box office points - got completely taken to school by the FOX negotiators.

Yeah, in interviews he has admitted that he had no idea what all the different figures meant when he was agreeing Marvel's cut in that deal.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think they can play the waiting game with X-Men anyway. I have seen it suggested (nothing official) that this stuff was licensed out in perpetuity but I don't believe even Arad would have been that shortsighted. Anybody with half a brain should realize after 30 years you might want to get your crap back if only to renegotiate the terms. I would not be surprised if it all reverted back sometime around the middle of the next decade (2025-ish)

Unfortunately I have seen claims by Fox that they can keep the characters forever if they continue making films.

I don't know how true it is, but it has been claimed.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

That may be the case then. But Christ I hope not.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

http://thenoobnews.com/news/disney-want-marvel-movie-character-rights-back-from-sony-and-fox/

There are four Marvel franchises that Disney does not control and word is they want them back. Three are controlled by 20th Century Fox and one by Sony.

Insiders are telling IESB Disney would love to get Fantastic Four back under their control and that this series, above all, fits the Disney mold the best being the first superhero family.

While Daredevil isn’t considered a first tier character, the Mouse House wants Matt Murdock and his alter ego Daredevil back under the control of Marvel Entertainment.

Disney will never and I mean never, ever, not in a 100 years, get this property back under the control of Marvel Entertainment, just not going to happen. Fox owns all of these properties for perpetuity, in other words, for-ev-ver….for-ev-ver…

Word on the street is Fox has made it very clear that they will not let go of any of the properties under their control for any live action medium.

We’ve also been told that if it ever came to the point where they were going to lose any property they own because of failing to have a movie in production, they would simply produce a low budget, straight-to-DVD feature and stick it in any theater to fulfill their theatrical release clause.

So what about Sony’s Spider-Man franchise? Same thing as the Fox deal, the contracts protect the studio 100% but they do have to continue to make movies with the Marvel characters on a regular basis. Spider-Man is not going anywhere, that also includes Venom.

Bottom line, the Sony and Fox contracts are rock solid. They will both keep their respective properties under their control. But you can be sure because they have plenty of money to spend, Disney will still have those Mickey Mouse lawyers looking for a loop hole….and to that I say, good luck!

 

[Whiskey Tango]

That's the article I read but filed under internet writer with vaguely defined "sources"

 

[BatsDC]

2021 seems to ring a bell for some reason. Didn't some people reckon that was when X-Men would revert?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That's the article I read but filed under internet writer with vaguely defined "sources"

Yeah, and even if it was a named source, it might just be their interpretation.

But I think there is reason for concern. I've never seen even a suggestion that the rights for any properties would revert just after a certain period of time (as long as films were still being made) and Fox and Sony are certainly treating X-Men and Spider-Man like they have them for as long as they want them.

There may be some long-term date on the contracts, but if so, it might be so far off as to not really matter.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

2021 seems to ring a bell for some reason. Didn't some people reckon that was when X-Men would revert?

If anyone can find any confirmation that there is an hard-year built in, that would make my year.

I can wait until 2021, but I fear that Fox will continue making bad FF films until after I'm dead.

 

[BatsDC]

If Fox really screw up FF as badly as we think they will, I'm expecting Disney will buy them back at this point. And Fox would be insane to ask for big bucks for it.

 

[starscream22]

If Fox really screw up FF as badly as we think they will, I'm expecting Disney will buy them back at this point. And Fox would be insane to ask for big bucks for it.

I don't think Disney has a problem with spending money for these franchises. They've work things out with Universal as well as with Sony previously. It's more likely the X-men merchandise and T.V. rights that had Marvel telling Fox to go jump in a lake. Overall Stance being sure you can keep the rights but don't expect the support from Disney that you had with Marvel before the acquisition. See when their crappy films under performed back then, they could rely on merchandising whether the drought.

This is one of the main reasons I think that Fox is so reluctant in making as many Marvel movies as they brag about. Sure they'll dangle a carrot to keep their blind supporters invested and they'll make crappy reboots when they have to reset the time clock.

Gambit still doesn't have a release date and once again they only broke the news about releasing a Deadpool film 5 years later because it's cheap to make and it swayed attention from them changing the release date of this reboot.

 

[0siris]

The problem is that by relinquising the merchandising and TV rights, you are strengthening a competitor in FOX's X-Franchise. Marvel and Disney already have to be wary of DC's huge slate of TV and film releases, along with the big merchandise push as we come closer to the Justice League release. Do they want to risk FOX reinvigorating the X-Franchise with TV shows, tie in merchandise, etc and potentially cutting into the Mouse's profits?

Is the price for getting back the FF family of characters worth potentially adding an additional competitor in the very crowded market for superhero related product? My guess is no. Apocalypse may struggle to retain the audience gains from having the OT cast in DOFP, and both Deadpool and a Gambit solo are far from sure things. Disney and Marvel would likely prefer to wait until FOX is desperate before making a deal.

I respect this thought, but I disagree with the potential strength of DC Cinematic Universe and expanded X-verse on the cognitive market space and merchandising.

Marvel Studios has won any potential glut war. They have first mover's advantage. Their core family of Avengers characters have been ingratiated and loved by audiences in a shared universe for years now, doing something no one else has done. They aren't having to introduce this "shared universe" concept like Warner Bros has yet to do. As Marvel Studios continues to expand its shared universe into new areas--horror with Dr. Strange, for example--it will continue to look novel and original compared to DC slowwwwwwwwly following Marvel Studios footsteps, years behind where it should be if it just connected Nolan Bats to Snyder Supes (even with an actor change). The X-franchise is finally refreshed after about 8 years of bleh between X2 and First Class, but hardly superceding the MCU. It has its own limitations, because thematically it can't step beyond heavy handed man vs. mutants narratives. No matter how good the DC or Fox films may be, they will always be behind the MCU, and not have those benefits if cannibalization occurs and people get "bored" with comic book movies. It's DC and Fox that will suffer, not the MCU.

The only things that can harm the MCU are 1) dip in quality, which may happen but is in the MCU's control and 2) limitations on expansion. This is where trading everything mutant for the Fantastic Four makes sense, because the Fantastic Four help continue with that universe expansion. The FF provide a unique "family" concept among super-humans, human-based cosmic explorers that can organically introduce any idea MCU wants to adapt to screen, and brings Galactus and Silver Surfer with them, as Galactus can be the next "big bad" in Phase 4 or Phase 5 after Thanos is disposed of.

Not only that, but the mutant concept is basically going to be reinvented by the MCU with the Inhumans. Dumping the X-Men into the MCU post 2020 will almost be redundant, and not have the thematic impact after this big Inhumans push. It might benefit the MCU to keep the X-verse separate, as introducing the X-men after the Inhumans may be cannibalizing their own shared universe after these strategic choices.

 

[Zarex]

I respect this thought, but I disagree with the potential strength of DC Cinematic Universe and expanded X-verse on the cognitive market space and merchandising.

Marvel Studios has won any potential glut war. They have first mover's advantage. Their core family of Avengers characters have been ingratiated and loved by audiences in a shared universe for years now, doing something no one else has done. They aren't having to introduce this "shared universe" concept like Warner Bros has yet to do. As Marvel Studios continues to expand its shared universe into new areas--horror with Dr. Strange, for example--it will continue to look novel and original compared to DC slowwwwwwwwly following Marvel Studios footsteps, years behind where it should be if it just connected Nolan Bats to Snyder Supes (even with an actor change). The X-franchise is finally refreshed after about 8 years of bleh between X2 and First Class, but hardly superceding the MCU. It has its own limitations, because thematically it can't step beyond heavy handed man vs. mutants narratives. No matter how good the DC or Fox films may be, they will always be behind the MCU, and not have those benefits if cannibalization occurs and people get "bored" with comic book movies. It's DC and Fox that will suffer, not the MCU.

The only things that can harm the MCU are 1) dip in quality, which may happen but is in the MCU's control and 2) limitations on expansion. This is where trading everything mutant for the Fantastic Four makes sense, because the Fantastic Four help continue with that universe expansion. The FF provide a unique "family" concept among super-humans, human-based cosmic explorers that can organically introduce any idea MCU wants to adapt to screen, and brings Galactus and Silver Surfer with them, as Galactus can be the next "big bad" in Phase 4 or Phase 5 after Thanos is disposed of.

Not only that, but the mutant concept is basically going to be reinvented by the MCU with the Inhumans. Dumping the X-Men into the MCU post 2020 will almost be redundant, and not have the thematic impact after this big Inhumans push. It might benefit the MCU to keep the X-verse separate, as introducing the X-men after the Inhumans may be cannibalizing their own shared universe after these strategic choices.

I love the FF, and I would be thrilled to see Marvel's First Family in their proper place in the MCU. But given Marvel's track record, I can't see how they justify giving up anything of value for the character rights, especially since they have quality replacements for the Surfer (Warlock), Galactus (Celestials) and Doom (Kang) already on the roster.

The studio has an enormous lead on both FOX and WB, and I don't see that situation changing anytime soon. But given that Marvel's best hope of getting their mutants back in the fold is for FOX to be bargaining from a position of weakness, I can't see them making any deals that could strengthen FOX's hand.

 

[Dasher10]

Um, the X-Men aren't heading back to Marvel if Fox keeps producing hits like the past three X films.

I can see Spider-Man reverting since Amy Pascal and Avi Arad keep running the franchise into the ground. If FF sucks, it'll probably revert.

 

[Mr.M]

Sony will be going under in terms of their film branch. X-Men on the other hand also has a limited shelf life in terms of the primary narrative, but they can always take a break before coming back to that. The key will be expanding the universe with spinoffs and producing modest to respectable hits. This will sustain the franchise, but their "event" and main narrative films have to hit the mark.

I thought 2016 Apocalypse is a mistake given how it is shaping up, in terms of a long term business plan. If it was an OT cast film, I understand, but these event films need time to breathe. They should have done some spinoffs instead of trying to cash in so quickly.

I am also well aware of the quandaries of cashing in on the young FC cast NOW as opposed to saving them for rainier days. Who knows if the contracts expire after a certain time, forcing them to fast track this? Also with Hugh Jackman's age. All are big issues. But 2016 is too soon and the franchise should have been able to breathe some more. 2017 made more sense.

 

[Jordacar]

I just hope that Marvel doesn't run out of stuff to throw at the FF by the time they get the chance to bring them into the fold. We know the Kree, the Inhumans, and Black Panther will all be covered. Aren't Doom, Galactus and the Skrulls part of the FF package?

 

[Owl]

I just hope that Marvel doesn't run out of stuff to throw at the FF by the time they get the chance to bring them into the fold. We know the Kree, the Inhumans, and Black Panther will all be covered. Aren't Doom, Galactus and the Skrulls part of the FF package?

Doom and Galactus are, but Skrulls are open to each company (with the exception of Super Skull, which was also included in Fox's FF deal.)

 

[Dasher10]

I just hope that Marvel doesn't run out of stuff to throw at the FF by the time they get the chance to bring them into the fold. We know the Kree, the Inhumans, and Black Panther will all be covered. Aren't Doom, Galactus and the Skrulls part of the FF package?

The Kree were optioned as part of the Ms Marvel and Inhumans rights. Black Panther is his own hero since he's part of the Avengers. Skrulls are shared with the Hulk.

Doom and Galactus are part of the FF rights. The same applies to Silver Surfer, Annihilus, Alicia Masters, Mad Thinker, Puppet Master, Blastaar, Terrax, Wizard, Franklin Richards, Valeria Richards, Terminus, Psycho Man and Willie Lumpkin.

As far as grey areas go, what I'm not certain of are Uatu who's either shared or at Fox since he's an integral part of the FF but he's also tied to the Marvel Universe as a whole. Thundra is a Fantastic Four villain but she's also one of She-Hulk's greatest enemies and Agatha Harkness is either with the FF or the Avengers.