The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - Part 15

[Endeavor]

Both Comcast and AT&T would benefit from some throttling. Maybe then they'd be forced to fix their horrendous customer service in order to survive.

 

[Big Bang]

I get it, but Disney could threaten that without owning Sky and Sky ownership wouldn't change that stance too much. But yeah, it is true what you guys are saying and something worth considering.

At the end of the day, that is all Disney needs. Coupled with the treasure trove of the combined film catalog and franchises, they are going to be formidable when negotiating with the carriers.

Comcast and Verizon know this, and this was why AT&T went after Time Warner. The AT&T trial in March is going to be very interesting in this respect. If the court sides with the DOJ, and AT&T ends up abandoning the deal, Comcast will immediately jump on Time Warner. At first I thought Comcast wouldn't have it any easier than AT&T, but some article that I read (can't remember where) pointed out that Comcast lacks a second cable service (ala DirectTV) and their mobile phone service is a pittance compared to AT&T. They also went further into detail how Comcast may be more willing to spin off more core assets from its distribution services to appease regulators, such as cable TV in certain markets, etc., and focus more on ISP combined with entertainment. They could also abandon their mobile network as well since they aren't that far along.

If (a very big if at the moment), the AT&T abandonment situation were to develop, the rights situation would get much more interesting.

 

[Detective Conan]

At the end of the day, that is all Disney needs. Coupled with the treasure trove of the combined film catalog and franchises, they are going to be formidable when negotiating with the carriers.

Comcast and Verizon know this, and this was why AT&T went after Time Warner. The AT&T trial in March is going to be very interesting in this respect. If the court sides with the DOJ, and AT&T ends up abandoning the deal, Comcast will immediately jump on Time Warner. At first I thought Comcast wouldn't have it any easier than AT&T, but some article that I read (can't remember where) pointed out that Comcast lacks a second cable service (ala DirectTV) and their mobile phone service is a pittance compared to AT&T. They also went further into detail how Comcast may be more willing to spin off more core assets from its distribution services to appease regulators, such as cable TV in certain markets, etc., and focus more on ISP combined with entertainment. They could also abandon their mobile network as well since they aren't that far along.

If (a very big if at the moment), the AT&T abandonment situation were to develop, the rights situation would get much more interesting.

How likely is it for the AT&T-Time Warner to be abandoned? Can they win the case? Then if not then what are the odds of the Fox-Disney facing similar pushback which eventually leads to Disney abandoning the deal?

 

[Big Bang]

How likely is it for the AT&T-Time Warner to be abandoned? Can they win the case? Then if not then what are the odds of the Fox-Disney facing similar pushback which eventually leads to Disney abandoning the deal?

Best odds I would give it going either way right now is 50-50. Though on a personal level I'm leaning more towards 60-40 that they are blocked.

AT&T overall is a bigger company than Comcast. Not only do they have multiple TV distribution businesses, they also are huge in the mobile market. Comcast has a subscription TV service, but are tiny in the mobile market and both companies are sizeable ISP's. Analyzing what some others are saying and a few articles I've read, if given the opportunity Comcast may have a surprise or two in store. Such as spinning off their Cable TV subscription services (but retain their ISP business) as a precursor to attempting to acquire Time Warner (if AT&T walks away).

The Fox-Disney situation is a different animal given it is more of a horizontal merger. There is plenty of room for concessions should any be required. In some respects the combined company creates more competition in areas such as TV, ISP, and OTT services. I think whatever concerns the DOJ may raise will be more addressable.

In the AT&T situation, they were offered concessions before being blocked. AT&T refused concessions that included spinning off DirectTV or Turner Broadcasting. Looking at the various markets AT&T is in (Cable & Satellite TV distribution, ISP, mobile services) I'm starting to get a better feel for why the DOJ is putting up the roadblocks that it is. Their argument is starting to make more sense to me. I also am finding it more troubling that they are not receptive to concessions.

 

[ADollarADay]

At the end of the day, that is all Disney needs. Coupled with the treasure trove of the combined film catalog and franchises, they are going to be formidable when negotiating with the carriers.

Comcast and Verizon know this, and this was why AT&T went after Time Warner. The AT&T trial in March is going to be very interesting in this respect. If the court sides with the DOJ, and AT&T ends up abandoning the deal, Comcast will immediately jump on Time Warner. At first I thought Comcast wouldn't have it any easier than AT&T, but some article that I read (can't remember where) pointed out that Comcast lacks a second cable service (ala DirectTV) and their mobile phone service is a pittance compared to AT&T. They also went further into detail how Comcast may be more willing to spin off more core assets from its distribution services to appease regulators, such as cable TV in certain markets, etc., and focus more on ISP combined with entertainment. They could also abandon their mobile network as well since they aren't that far along.

If (a very big if at the moment), the AT&T abandonment situation were to develop, the rights situation would get much more interesting.

That could be a verizon/comcast fight.

I think ATT will sell CNN though. I can see New Fox buying it. I don't think they will sell direct tv.

 

[Big Bang]

That could be a verizon/comcast fight.

I think ATT will sell CNN though. I can see New Fox buying it. I don't think they will sell direct tv.

Verizon supposedly is more interested in merging with more content delivery. They've been playing the smaller game going after easier targets (AOL, Yahoo). I expect them to play along with that kind of strategy should they jump into the ring for content creation (Sony, Viacom).

AT&T is being required to sell much more than CNN. Turner Broadcasting as a whole. That includes pieces like TBS, TNT, Cartoon Network, etc. What really makes that interesting is that includes pieces like Hanna-Barbera which is deeply intertwined with all of Warner Bros. cartoon TV properties. Plus that sports pieces of Turner which is huge. Really sticky situation. When you get down to the real meat of it, it would be far easier for AT&T to just walk away if things don't really go their way, which would open the door for Comcast...

Another part of the whole discussion is that AT&T still hasn't really integrated DirectTV into the company proper. Which raises a valid question of just how successful they would be with integrating Time Warner (should that ever get the go ahead). If DirectTV is any indication, they won't really be very successful at all.

 

[ADollarADay]

Verizon supposedly is more interested in merging with more content delivery. They've been playing the smaller game going after easier targets (AOL, Yahoo). I expect them to play along with that kind of strategy should they jump into the ring for content creation (Sony, Viacom).

AT&T is being required to sell much more than CNN. Turner Broadcasting as a whole. That includes pieces like TBS, TNT, Cartoon Network, etc. What really makes that interesting is that includes pieces like Hanna-Barbera which is deeply intertwined with all of Warner Bros. cartoon TV properties. Plus that sports pieces of Turner which is huge. Really sticky situation. When you get down to the real meat of it, it would be far easier for AT&T to just walk away if things don't really go their way, which would open the door for Comcast...

Another part of the whole discussion is that AT&T still hasn't really integrated DirectTV into the company proper. Which raises a valid question of just how successful they would be with integrating Time Warner (should that ever get the go ahead). If DirectTV is any indication, they won't really be very successful at all.

ATT has 500 million reasons why they don't want to walk away. CMCSA buying TWX is no walk in the park either, especially with Trump already balking at the CMCSA acquisition of Universal. And that's assuming CMCSA didn't already approach TWX previously as Bewkes was telling everyone who would listen that he was selling, but just not in parts. I think even DIS approached them, but obviously weren't interested in getting the whole thing.

I think ATT will end up bending the knee and divesting some assets. If it turns out to include some HB stuff, I wouldn't be surprised if Disney made a play for those.

 

[Xeno]

Admittedly I am no expert, but it seems to me that AT&T has a pretty good argument against the DOJ's objections to the deal. It has proposed a seven-year agreement to submit to arbitration before ending carriage deals with other cable providers for TimeWarner channels/content, which weakens if not destroys the main DOJ argument. These are similar terms to those the same presiding judge accepted when approving the Comcast deal. AT&T has also pointed out that since the two companies have very little overlap in their businesses the deal doesn't reduce competition. All of this should be enough to convince the judge to allow the merger, in light of his approval of the Comcast/Universal deal.

Having said all of that, I do wish that the Comcast deal hadn't gone through. Comcast has always been a bad actor. It was already powerful enough, but now that it has merged with Universal and gotten net neutrality neutered its behavior will likely become absolutely oppressive. There is no chance that it will not use its newly-ratified power to throttle certain streaming services in order to extort money from providers, which will lead to increased consumer costs. Everyone who has been whining about the supposed monopolistic implications of the Disney/Fox acquisition should be howling to the heavens about the end of net neutrality, which is the biggest threat to consumer freedom and the free flow of information on the Internet that we've ever seen.

 

[honestbharani]

Admittedly I am no expert, but it seems to me that AT&T has a pretty good argument against the DOJ's objections to the deal. It has proposed a seven-year agreement to submit to arbitration before ending carriage deals with other cable providers for TimeWarner channels/content, which weakens if not destroys the main DOJ argument. These are similar terms to those the same presiding judge accepted when approving the Comcast deal. AT&T has also pointed out that since the two companies have very little overlap in their businesses the deal doesn't reduce competition. All of this should be enough to convince the judge to allow the merger, in light of his approval of the Comcast/Universal deal.

Having said all of that, I do wish that the Comcast deal hadn't gone through. Comcast has always been a bad actor. It was already powerful enough, but now that it has merged with Universal and gotten net neutrality neutered its behavior will likely become absolutely oppressive. There is no chance that it will not use its newly-ratified power to throttle certain streaming services in order to extort money from providers, which will lead to increased consumer costs. Everyone who has been whining about the supposed monopolistic implications of the Disney/Fox acquisition should be howling to the heavens about the end of net neutrality, which is the biggest threat to consumer freedom and the free flow of information on the Internet that we've ever seen.

Not true at all given that it is a merger of content creation + distribution channel. That will not hold up in ANY court, esp. after recent ruling on net neutrality.

 

[Big Bang]

ATT has 500 million reasons why they don't want to walk away. CMCSA buying TWX is no walk in the park either, especially with Trump already balking at the CMCSA acquisition of Universal. And that's assuming CMCSA didn't already approach TWX previously as Bewkes was telling everyone who would listen that he was selling, but just not in parts. I think even DIS approached them, but obviously weren't interested in getting the whole thing.

AT&T does have precedence with walking away from deals. When they walked away from T-Mobile, they ended paying $3 Billion for the cancellation. The cancellation fee this time is $500 Million. The problem with Comcast/NBCUniversal was the way the DOJ approved the deal. The Obama Administration accepted post-merger behavioral oversight, which was a major break from how past administrations typically managed these mergers. Even now there is valid criticism of that deal. I think Bewkes underestimated the roadblocks for approval in this case, though that does fall on the previous administration.

I think ATT will end up bending the knee and divesting some assets. If it turns out to include some HB stuff, I wouldn't be surprised if Disney made a play for those.

I'm not so sure anymore. The assets they are being challenged to spin-off are among their core, so I think there is a fair level of probability that they walk.

I don't see Disney making a play if they do. They already have their hands full with Fox for the time being.

Admittedly I am no expert, but it seems to me that AT&T has a pretty good argument against the DOJ's objections to the deal. It has proposed a seven-year agreement to submit to arbitration before ending carriage deals with other cable providers for TimeWarner channels/content, which weakens if not destroys the main DOJ argument. These are similar terms to those the same presiding judge accepted when approving the Comcast deal. AT&T has also pointed out that since the two companies have very little overlap in their businesses the deal doesn't reduce competition. All of this should be enough to convince the judge to allow the merger, in light of his approval of the Comcast/Universal deal.

The approval of the Comcast/Universal deal is really going to haunt the Govt. The manner that deal was handled differed greatly from previous deals. AT&T simply assumed that the precedence of that deal would allow them to pursue this action unabated. Even the judge who ultimately approved the Comcast deal had great reservations about it. This same judge now is the one who will oversee the AT&T trial.

Having said all of that, I do wish that the Comcast deal hadn't gone through. Comcast has always been a bad actor. It was already powerful enough, but now that it has merged with Universal and gotten net neutrality neutered its behavior will likely become absolutely oppressive. There is no chance that it will not use its newly-ratified power to throttle certain streaming services in order to extort money from providers, which will lead to increased consumer costs. Everyone who has been whining about the supposed monopolistic implications of the Disney/Fox acquisition should be howling to the heavens about the end of net neutrality, which is the biggest threat to consumer freedom and the free flow of information on the Internet that we've ever seen.

Which ultimately is why how the DOJ handled that deal is so baffling. There was high probability they would not abide by behavioral change, yet they approved it anyway.

I get what Comcast is trying to do with regards to changing their company's core businesses (they are looking to break away from traditional cable, etc.), but I think they should have been forced more quickly in that direction rather than be allowed to leverage some of those assets.

 

[ADollarADay]

AT&T does have precedence with walking away from deals. When they walked away from T-Mobile, they ended paying $3 Billion for the cancellation. The cancellation fee this time is $500 Million. The problem with Comcast/NBCUniversal was the way the DOJ approved the deal. The Obama Administration accepted post-merger behavioral oversight, which was a major break from how past administrations typically managed these mergers. Even now there is valid criticism of that deal. I think Bewkes underestimated the roadblocks for approval in this case, though that does fall on the previous administration.

I'm not so sure anymore. The assets they are being challenged to spin-off are among their core, so I think there is a fair level of probability that they walk.

They also tried their hardest to get that through, including divesting of assets. That was much more complicated transaction as well because of the nature of the acquisition. And they still tried their hardest to not walk away from it. Stephenson also lost 2 million by walking away from that. He's not walking away from this merger. Divesting of Turner or DirectTV will be worth it in the end.

I don't see Disney making a play if they do. They already have their hands full with Fox for the time being.

Yeah I meant making a play after the transaction clears, they will sit tight until then. The timing wouldn't work out and I didn't think about that, though they would still be interested in the 10% Hulu ownership from Turner, so that could get quite interesting.

 

[UltimatePyro9]

I never thought a discussion forum about the possible rights reversion of Marvel characters would talk about the Comcast/AT&T business.

In any case, I wanna see an Exiles movie. They can travel to the world of Fant4stic, how boring and artificial it is, and leave.

 

[The Ironstar]

My minor nicpic: I wished they haven't started w/the IG story,but w/this 1st.

 

[Zarex]

My minor nicpic: I wished they haven't started w/the IG story,but w/this 1st.

The Mad Titan didnt have his glove in that 70s two parter, but the story involved his using the Infinity (fornerly know as Soul) Gems to wipe out lots of people. From what we've see and heard I think the Russos will borrow a bit from that Jim Starlin story along with Thanos Quest, Infinity Gauntlet and Hickman's Infinity.

 

[Xeno]

This thread stands as the ultimate testament to the power of positive thinking. For several long years, the stalwart posters here maintained hope in the face of seemingly impossible odds, despite countless setbacks and occasional negativity from others. The rights situation was completely beyond our control but we kept pulling for something, anything, that might possibly signal a shift.

It took years of false hopes and bitter insults (Fant4stic) before we reached our promised land, but we're there at last! Or, nearly there. Our hoped-for reversion will happen sooner than anyone -- but us -- ever dreamed. Sure, the months between now and the finalization of Disney's acquisition of Fox seems like a long time but it's nothing compared to the decades that the Fantastic Four (and X-Men) have been held separate from the rest of Marvel's heroes.

Everyone who has been here through the dark times should take a bow. And this thread should never close or be renamed because it's all about the power of Keeping Hope Alive.

 

[DyfeddRex]

True...
Besides, we still have two more sets of rights, or three if Namor is in limbo-land with Universal, to get back.

Okay, time to get Spidey home full time gang, cause the 4 without Spidey running into them is not going to be as fun?

And we need our Gamma Ray Crew home as well.

 

[Spiderine]

I hate the fact that Sony is making these BS garbage Spidey spinoffs like Venom. Characters that should be saved for actual Spidey films. Thats the next big domino that needs to fall. At least Universal CAN NOT make any Marvel films. Universal is a different equation altogether. I honestly believe Namor has other issues with other entities.

 

[Dark Raven]

I never thought a discussion forum about the possible rights reversion of Marvel characters would talk about the Comcast/AT&T business.

In any case, I wanna see an Exiles movie. They can travel to the world of Fant4stic, how boring and artificial it is, and leave.

That's typical talk for this thread though. Over the years this thread has had discussions on intellectual property rights, mergers and acquisitions and other legal and corporate matters.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I hate the fact that Sony is making these BS garbage Spidey spinoffs like Venom. Characters that should be saved for actual Spidey films. Thats the next big domino that needs to fall. At least Universal CAN NOT make any Marvel films. Universal is a different equation altogether. I honestly believe Namor has other issues with other entities.

Yeah, now that Marvel is close to getting everything back, this bothers me more than it did a few months ago.

I didn't have much interest in a non-MCU Venom film before, but now I may avoid going on principle as well as disinterest.

 

[UltimatePyro9]

But dude. Venom IS part of the MCU. That's what Amy Pascal said. Feige's face proves it!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

But dude. Venom IS part of the MCU. That's what Amy Pascal said. Feige's face proves it!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Here's the animated version:

 

[ADollarADay]

True...
Besides, we still have two more sets of rights, or three if Namor is in limbo-land with Universal, to get back.

Okay, time to get Spidey home full time gang, cause the 4 without Spidey running into them is not going to be as fun?

And we need our Gamma Ray Crew home as well.

I believe within 5-7 years of this acquisition closing that all Marvel rights will be 100% back. The only one I'm not 100% confident on is theme park rights.

Here's the animated version:

You can clearly see how uncomfortable Feige is. Sad Feige is clearly bothered by what's being said whereas Sad Affleck is clearly defeated lol

 

[Marvel united]

Sony is so desperate. I would have LOVED to see Venom as the villain for the third MCU Spider-Man movie and I would have loved to see the Symbiote in Infinity War

 

[Kuwolski]

Without merch revenue it's only a matter of time. That's really the golden goose.