The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Zarex]

damn it! It didn't work. Help please. Can someone please tell me how to hide posts by a particular user?

said user is awfully mature and quite insightful and i wish to subscribe to his newsletter

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Unfortunately, our agents disabled that function. A bad move in retrospect, but...
Hail Hydra!

At least we are finally getting our Serpent Society content via Cage...

Now, We need our ally Doom back.

I figured it out. There's a confirmation step I missed.

For everyone else, if you click on the name and then "View Public Profile", that takes you to their page. Then under the name, there's a "User Lists" option and then "Add to Ignore List". But then you have to confirm. I must have clicked out too quick without confirming the first time.

 

[Spider-Fan]

No need. I banned him. Obvious troll is obvious.

 

[Orba]

Damn it! It didn't work. Help please. Can someone please tell me how to hide posts by a particular user?

Best seems to be Ignore, it shows that they posted but you can't see what it was (unless someone else quotes it I believe).

 

[Dark Raven]

I figured it out. There's a confirmation step I missed.

For everyone else, if you click on the name and then "View Public Profile", that takes you to their page. Then under the name, there's a "User Lists" option and then "Add to Ignore List". But then you have to confirm. I must have clicked out too quick without confirming the first time.

I have a fairly lengthy list, even if I haven't personally interacted with some people. Some are even banned now so I don't know why they're still on it.

But if you ignored all the FFINO defenders from before it wouldn't be any fun. Of course, I'm still waiting for BMX to defend FFINO but he keeps recycling the same stunts.

 

[Iceman]

It's a good offer from Comcast. Will be interesting to see how Disney respond.

 

[Raiden]

I've been here since 2002 but that troll is one that really made me rolled my eyes, like the old Spider Freddie or whatever his name was.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

No need. I banned him. Obvious troll is obvious.

When things are slow it's sometimes fun to have a troll to keep things going, but right now, this is a critical time with serious stuff going on.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

It's a good offer from Comcast. Will be interesting to see how Disney respond.

A guy on Squawkbox this morning who seemed fairly knowledgeable predicted Disney would add enough cash to their offer to match values.

I suspect that's what we'll see. Disney will match, Comcast will respond, Disney will match again until one or the other starts to decide it's getting too high. And then at that point, I suspect they'll start talking about splitting assets.

I suspect part of the reason Comcast is being so cavalier at the moment is they know they're not going to end up owning the whole thing. At most they'll have parts. If the bidding keeps going up, Comcast could find themselves in the position of getting Fox but not having anything left to bid on Sky.

But I think even if that happened, they'd sell some things off to Disney to get some cash back for a Sky bid.

 

[Zarex]

A guy on Squawkbox this morning who seemed fairly knowledgeable predicted Disney would add enough cash to their offer to match values.

I suspect that's what we'll see. Disney will match, Comcast will respond, Disney will match again until one or the other starts to decide it's getting too high. And then at that point, I suspect they'll start talking about splitting assets.

I suspect part of the reason Comcast is being so cavalier at the moment is they know they're not going to end up owning the whole thing. At most they'll have parts. If the bidding keeps going up, Comcast could find themselves in the position of getting Fox but not having anything left to bid on Sky.

But I think even if that happened, they'd sell some things off to Disney to get some cash back for a Sky bid.

Hopefully both sides will discuss splitting the assets NOW instead of bidding up the price and burdening both companies with debt for the benefit of the Murdochs and New Fox. .

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Hopefully both sides will discuss splitting the assets NOW instead of bidding up the price and burdening both companies with debt for the benefit of the Murdochs and New Fox. .

I think part of the problem is both sides really do want some of the same things, so they'll both be willing to go a little higher to try to get everything.

But once it does get too high, even the likely "winner" will be wondering if they want to spend that much and that's when the opportunity is there. The higher bidder doesn't want all that debt and the lower bidder doesn't want to get nothing.

And fortunately for us, the rights should be one of the easier items. Disney obviously wants them more than Comcast. Things like Sky will be a lot tougher.

 

[Big Bang]

A guy on Squawkbox this morning who seemed fairly knowledgeable predicted Disney would add enough cash to their offer to match values.

I suspect that's what we'll see. Disney will match, Comcast will respond, Disney will match again until one or the other starts to decide it's getting too high. And then at that point, I suspect they'll start talking about splitting assets.

I suspect part of the reason Comcast is being so cavalier at the moment is they know they're not going to end up owning the whole thing. At most they'll have parts. If the bidding keeps going up, Comcast could find themselves in the position of getting Fox but not having anything left to bid on Sky.

But I think even if that happened, they'd sell some things off to Disney to get some cash back for a Sky bid.

Disney hasn't been standing still either in the days leading up to where we are. They sold ABC News's HQ a few days ago in NYC for $1B. Just for the building. From the sound of some analysts, they are starting trim down in certain areas.

I can honestly see Disney wanting Blue Sky as well. Comcast now has Dreamworks and Illumination. Both produce 500MM+ movies at the BO with some movies doing over 1B. They don't want to give another very capable animation studio to Comcast. I can see that being a point of contention.

Honestly, they don't really need them. They have enough animation production that both far exceed what BlueSky brings in. Best to take the savings from trying to bid on that asset and apply it to other assets that can produce better ROI. BlueSky's BO is negligible compared to either Disney or Universal.

 

[Big Bang]

I think part of the problem is both sides really do want some of the same things, so they'll both be willing to go a little higher to try to get everything.

But once it does get too high, even the likely "winner" will be wondering if they want to spend that much and that's when the opportunity is there. The higher bidder doesn't want all that debt and the lower bidder doesn't want to get nothing.

And fortunately for us, the rights should be one of the easier items. Disney obviously wants them more than Comcast. Things like Sky will be a lot tougher.

I think Iger is disciplined enough that he will evaluate the bids and cut out things like Sky. It may be a "crown jewel" in some respects, but it isn't enough alone to warrant an all out war with Comcast that would disrupt other potentials for Disney. 20th Century Fox, along with the Marvel rights, Avatar, and so on, bring in a ton of IP power that Disney can easily leverage, and that ultimately plays to their strengths.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think Iger is disciplined enough that he will evaluate the bids and cut out things like Sky. It may be a "crown jewel" in some respects, but it isn't enough alone to warrant an all out war with Comcast that would disrupt other potentials for Disney. 20th Century Fox, along with the Marvel rights, Avatar, and so on, bring in a ton of IP power that Disney can easily leverage, and that ultimately plays to their strengths.

If Disney is willing to give up Sky, I think that could be the key because I think that's what Comcast REALLY wants. I think if Disney let Comcast have Sky, Comcast would let Disney have most of the rest.

But again, neither side is that desperate yet. They'll both try to get everything and see if they can make the other side blink.

Once the price starts climbing, that's when something like this becomes more likely.

 

[Abudefduf]

Why Comcast Would Be Even Worse For Fox Than Walt Disney

Simply put, there is a lot less of a use for Fox movies in Comcast. Universal already makes big movies, like Jurassic World and Fate of the Furious, and they make small ones like Blockers and Get Out with regularity. While Fox’s X-Men properties would give Universal a superhero franchise if they so desire one, the upscale flicks (The Revenant comes to mind) might be in peril. Universal doesn’t distribute super-duper expensive flicks outside of the FF and JW franchises. More importantly, I’m not sure a single studio would need both Girl on the Train and Gone Girl.

Blue Sky would be less valuable to a studio that already has Illumination and DreamWorks Animation under its umbrella. Blue Sky may get sold no matter who buys Fox (Lionsgate might want to take a gander), but Fox Searchlight would be a hell of a lot safer at a studio that didn’t already have Focus Features pumping out the likes of The Darkest Hour, Tully and Victoria and Abdul. Having Focus Features and Fox Searchlight doesn’t buy Comcast anything it doesn’t already have. Hence the types of movies that Fox and Fox Searchlight produce might become an endangered species.

So yeah, tell me again how Comcast winning would be "the lesser of two evils".

 

[ADollarADay]

This thread took quite a turn lol

Honestly, they don't really need them. They have enough animation production that both far exceed what BlueSky brings in. Best to take the savings from trying to bid on that asset and apply it to other assets that can produce better ROI. BlueSky's BO is negligible compared to either Disney or Universal.

The BO is negligible but the talent is big. Blue Sky could easily make smaller budget Marvel, SW, Avatar, original animation films that would go direct to streaming or limited theatrical runs. It's a nice get that people often sleep on. Both Disney and Comcast would want them, but just like Marvel and SW rights, it's not a high priority.

 

[Orba]

I've often wondered if Iger's interest in Sky is more about keeping Murdoch happy than anything else. Murdoch has dreamed about full ownership of Sky for years so Iger showing support for such a purchase could have been about Murdoch support for the Fox purchase rather than a real desire to buy Sky.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Why Comcast Would Be Even Worse For Fox Than Walt Disney
So yeah, tell me again how Comcast winning would be "the lesser of two evils".

On one hand, Universal doesn't have a history of screwing up like Fox, so I'm thinking there's at least some possibility they could do better.

But then I look at The Mummy and most of their other films and think: "No! No! No!"

Marvel gets it. They've shown they get it. They continue to amaze me with their ability to make film after film that have the key characteristics of the comic books while also working in 2018.

In my opinion, nobody else has come close. Maybe Sony with the original Spider-Man films and Chris Nolan with the Batman films, but those are exceptions and those same studios have failed spectacularly on other films.

The shared Universe would be nice, but it's not a deal breaker for me (the FF have enough characters packaged with them that I think they could exist in their own world) but my real concern is no studio other than Marvel can really understand the characters well enough and invest enough to really do it right. I have faith Marvel can and will.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I've often wondered if Iger's interest in Sky is more about keeping Murdoch happy than anything else. Murdoch has dreamed about full ownership of Sky for years so Iger showing support for such a purchase could have been about Murdoch support for the Fox purchase rather than a real desire to buy Sky.

Interesting point. Plus I have to think Murdoch's right-wing affiliation and NBC's left-wing affiliation has to bother Murdoch. Those things probably contribute to Murdoch being so strongly in Disney's corner.

But he only has a limited number of shares, so Disney will have to win others over with real value.

 

[Bach]

Hasn't Iger said multiple times that they want Sky?

 

[Orba]

Hasn't Iger said multiple times that they want Sky?

Yeah but is he saying it because he really wants it or is he saying it because he wants the support of the Murdochs in Disney's bid for Fox?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Hasn't Iger said multiple times that they want Sky?

Yes. Does he want it badly enough to pay $80 billion for Fox? Does he want it badly enough to let Comcast have other key assets such as content for their new streaming service? We'll see.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Disney stock is continuing to climb.

 

[Raiden]

Disney stock is continuing to climb.

That can definitely play a part in the bidding since the most valuable the stock values, the better Disney will be bidding against Comcast's all-cash offer. If only Disney didn't have a couple of duds this year in AWIT and Solo, then maybe their stock will climb even higher.

 

[Zarex]

Some interesting stuff in the CNBC roundtable with Rich Greenfied:

- He believes a "split the baby" type of sharing arrangement between the Mouse and Kabletown wouldn't pass regulatory muster. But he also believe that, with this administration, Rupert gets what Rupert wants.

- He thinks the deal is more important to Comcast due to that company's need to expand globally. And Roberts will be extremely aggressive to make it happen.

- Believes that Comcast doesn't have anywhere else to go if they lose the bidding, but Disney may look to a video game company like EA or Activision (I don't see it given Disney's awful history in that market), Twitter, or a subscription service like Spotify (I don't see either of those happening either).

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/tim...-win-against-disney-for-fox-analyst-says.html