The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Dark Raven]

I don't think any fans will be satisfied with any of these alternatives. Everyone's expecting Disney to get X-Men and Fantastic Four back, and instead they get Activision, Twitter or Spotify.

 

[Zarex]

I don't think any fans will be satisfied with any of these alternatives. Everyone's expecting Disney to get X-Men and Fantastic Four back, and instead they get Activision, Twitter or Spotify.

For us Marvel fans they all suck eggs, no doubt. A Sony Pictures deal seems like a decent scenario if the FOX deal goes belly up, but he's already in the MCU and I doubt there will be much enthusiasm for adding Silver Sable, Black Cat and Venom to the mix.

Here's hoping (assuming a worst case scenario) the FF rights come back when a Kabletown exec forgets to update his calendar with the reversion date.

 

[Big Bang]

The BO is negligible but the talent is big. Blue Sky could easily make smaller budget Marvel, SW, Avatar, original animation films that would go direct to streaming or limited theatrical runs. It's a nice get that people often sleep on. Both Disney and Comcast would want them, but just like Marvel and SW rights, it's not a high priority.

Yeah, but talent can be poached for far less than an acquisition cost. I'm reminded of when Microsoft bought Rare. A storied studio that was already an empty husk of what it had once been when they acquired it. Massively overpaid for that one. No wonder Nintendo declined to buy it.

On one hand, Universal doesn't have a history of screwing up like Fox, so I'm thinking there's at least some possibility they could do better.

But then I look at The Mummy and most of their other films and think: "No! No! No!"

Yep. Universal has already proven they don't know how to handle a connected franchise. Sure Comcast could have Fox to do it, but they've already proven themselves just as incapable. The potential returns are already far less than what Comcast is ready to pay today. There are assets in the Fox portfolio that would probably do fine under Comcast. Simpsons, Family Guy, Alien, Predator, and so on, but it is very evident that others would not.

 

[Kuwolski]

I'd be shocked if Disney wanted any part of Twitter. It's just bad for business and PR on so many levels.

 

[ADollarADay]

- Believes that Comcast doesn't have anywhere else to go if they lose the bidding, but Disney may look to a video game company like EA or Activision (I don't see it given Disney's awful history in that market), Twitter, or a subscription service like Spotify (I don't see either of those happening either).

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/tim...-win-against-disney-for-fox-analyst-says.html

Based on what? Why can't Comcast acquire a big VG company or twitter or spotify if they lose this bid? That argument doesn't hold much water IMO.

 

[Detective Conan]

Some interesting stuff in the CNBC roundtable with Rich Greenfied:

- He believes a "split the baby" type of sharing arrangement between the Mouse and Kabletown wouldn't pass regulatory muster. But he also believe that, with this administration, Rupert gets what Rupert wants.

- He thinks the deal is more important to Comcast due to that company's need to expand globally. And Roberts will be extremely aggressive to make it happen.

- Believes that Comcast doesn't have anywhere else to go if they lose the bidding, but Disney may look to a video game company like EA or Activision (I don't see it given Disney's awful history in that market), Twitter, or a subscription service like Spotify (I don't see either of those happening either).

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/tim...-win-against-disney-for-fox-analyst-says.html

I’m familiar with Greenfield and I’m sure he’s 10x smarter than me in this area but man he does seem more biased in favor Comcast just judging by his work on this subject alone.

Of course I’m sure he’s right about a lot of things and wrong on some other things on this very subject but it wasn’t too objective IMO. You could tell he’s rooting for Comcast to win.

 

[Zarex]

Based on what? Why can't Comcast acquire a big VG company or twitter or spotify if they lose this bid? That argument doesn't hold much water IMO.

The argument was that Comcast's primary goal is extending their existing businesses lines outside of the US rather than expanding into new areas. I don't know why Greenfield thinks its a good idea for Disney to move into those markets, but he has been pushing the Mouse to buy a major video company for years despite the company's spotty (at best) track record.

 

[Big Bang]

Based on what? Why can't Comcast acquire a big VG company or twitter or spotify if they lose this bid? That argument doesn't hold much water IMO.

I don't see anyone jumping in the VG market from old media. It just has never translated well between the two segments. Disney is as unlikely to ever get back into gaming as IBM is to ever enter the entertainment market. Warner has had some success by keeping their focus on small or moderate sized developers. The only gaming company I could see Disney obtaining (that makes sense) is Square-Enix.

I think the basis for international expansion stems from Comcast being locked in as a regional ISP and TV provider. The TWC debacle showed that there just isn't room or tolerance for them to expand further.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

- He believes a "split the baby" type of sharing arrangement between the Mouse and Kabletown wouldn't pass regulatory muster. But he also believe that, with this administration, Rupert gets what Rupert wants.

I can't see why the government would say: "It's okay if one of you wants to buy everything, but it's not okay if two of you want to split things up."

From the point of view of 'competitiveness' (which is the general concern) a split would be better.

I guess there could be some anti-trust concerns, but there are a lot of smart lawyers involved and I believe they could structure it in a way that wouldn't raise anti-trust concerns.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

They’re gonna get those Marvel IPs one way or another

Best believe it, friends

 

[Iceman]

I can't see why the government would say: "It's okay if one of you wants to buy everything, but it's not okay if two of you want to split things up."

From the point of view of 'competitiveness' (which is the general concern) a split would be better.

I guess there could be some anti-trust concerns, but there are a lot of smart lawyers involved and I believe they could structure it in a way that wouldn't raise anti-trust concerns.

Yeah I thought that would be preferable in terms of competition within the concerned industries/sectors.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yeah I thought that would be preferable in terms of competition within the concerned industries/sectors.

I think the issue may be the mechanism. If Comcast and Disney get together and say "You take this, we'll take that". That would be a form of collusion that could orevent Fox from getting the fair market value.

I think they'd have to either bid on chunks of assets (Sky, TV content, film catalog etc. and that would require Fox being willing to sell them that way), or one company would buy everything with the other company buying what they want from that first company.

It could get tricky, but I'm sure smart people could work something out.

 

[The Ironstar]

From an poster:

Comcast only has $6 billion in current cash holdings, though...




https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/cmcsa/stock-report




...so where’s that $59 billion gap coming from?

 

[ImSGirl95]

What if, a big WHAT IF, this is all some kind of a trolling attempt by Comcast?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

What if, a big WHAT IF, this is all some kind of a trolling attempt by Comcast?

I don't think I'd calling 'trolling' but I still think one of the biggest driving motivations for Comcast is to get Sky. And since Fox owns a big chunk of Sky, Comcast's best chance of getting all of Sky is to first buy Fox.

I think that if Disney and Fox can find a way for Comcast to get Sky without buying all of Fox (at a very high price), Comcast would be very interested.

 

[ImSGirl95]

I see.
Because all this talk about Comcast doesn't having the money and so on, I just can't take them seriouslly. Will wait for next month to see.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I see.
Because all this talk about Comcast doesn't having the money and so on, I just can't take them seriouslly. Will wait for next month to see.

I'm sure they have credit approval for at least the amount they've bid so far. The question is how much higher they can go.

At this point, Disney will offer a counter that will be more attractive to Fox (which doesn't necessarily mean it has to be a higher value), and then that's when things get interesting. We all knew both companies would be willing to go this far, but how far either will go from here is a big question.

 

[Detective Conan]

Greenfield posted this on his twitter feed as a sort of a mini-promo of his CNBC interview that just aired. Not trying to discredit him, of course, but its telling where he falls.

 

[MasterCat]

At this point, Disney will offer a counter that will be more attractive to Fox (which doesn't necessarily mean it has to be a higher value), and then that's when things get interesting. We all knew both companies would be willing to go this far, but how far either will go from here is a big question.

It depends on how much the assets are worth to them.
Sky, 60% of Hulu, and the Fox film & TV library are worth a LOT to either corporation. Either corporation will probably divest Blue Sky. The scary part is what will happen to consumers if their cable internet monopoly owns one of the competing streaming services.
Disney is probably the only one that would keep Fox Searchlight in operation. It fulfills a niche that Universal is already in and Disney is not.
I bet Iger has big plans for using Marvel and other Disney cartoons on Star to create a demand for Disney blockbusters in India, a market where traditionally Hollywood blockbusters earn ~0.7% of their gross because Indians only want local films. Comcast would no doubt like Star for what it already is but can't synergize.
I don't know what dollar value either corporation would put on the RSNs.
Obviously the Fantastic 4 film rights and Star Wars: ANH distribution rights inside 20th Century Fox have a real value to Disney, but it's very low in dollar terms.

EDIT: Also inside 20th Century Fox is their contract with James Cameron. Avatar is a potential $11 billion gross if box office response to #3 is similar to #1. So equal value to either corp.

 

[Detective Conan]

DOJ won't appeal AT&T ruling, company to close Time Warner deal as soon as Friday

The Justice Department has agreed not to appeal the AT&T and Time Warner merger decision, according to joint government filings, clearing the way for a quick conclusion to a deal.
A federal judge ruled on Tuesday that AT&T's $85.4 billion bid for Time Warner was legal, imposing no conditions on the merger. The government had the option to appeal the decision and request a stay, though U.S. District Court Judge Richard Leon strongly urged against it in his decision.
A deal could be completed as soon as Friday, according to the filings.

Man, this has got to get Comcast even more eager to go after Fox now.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Some news headlines when I did a search for Comcast:

"Why Comcast Would Be Even Worse For Fox Than Walt Disney"
- Forbes

"Comcast makes $65 billion offer to steal 21st Century Fox away from Disney"

- The Verge

"A Comcast-Fox marriage would be built on a ton of debt"

It seems the public has spoken on Comcast.

So... I have to ask: is there anyone besides Roberts (remember, Murdoch is focused on the money, not necessarily Comcast itself) who favors a merger with Comcast?

 

[2kt09]

Some news headlines when I did a search for Comcast:

"Why Comcast Would Be Even Worse For Fox Than Walt Disney"
- Forbes

"Comcast makes $65 billion offer to steal 21st Century Fox away from Disney"

- The Verge

"A Comcast-Fox marriage would be built on a ton of debt"

It seems the public has spoken on Comcast.

So... I have to ask: is there anyone besides Roberts (remember, Murdoch is focused on the money, not necessarily Comcast itself) who favors a merger with Comcast?

lol Make Comcast Great Again

 

[MasterCat]

Tangential: email leak suggests Sony tried to sell back the Spider-Man film rights for $5 billion dollars, going down to $2 billion with a silly number of strings attached. That gives you a ballpark of how much Roberts would try to charge Disney for the X-Men if Comcast wins.

 

[Detective Conan]

Tangential: email leak suggests Sony tried to sell back the Spider-Man film rights for $5 billion dollars, going down to $2 billion with a silly number of strings attached. That gives you a ballpark of how much Roberts would try to charge Disney for the X-Men if Comcast wins.

The link doesn't work

 

[Art Freak]

Slightly off-topic but I haven’t seen it fully addressed. Why was Trump seemingly so quick to turn on Iger after the Roseanne debacle when he had just congratulated him on the merger a few months prior? Seems like I missed a step. Or is the answer simply: Trump being Trump?

Please, I’m really not inviting any political derailments just curious.