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I expect Roberts to go off the rails trying to get Fox
This is true, he has a repuatation for being aggressive with what he wants, and he might even risk putting his company in huge debt for a while in order to get those assets.I expect Roberts to go off the rails trying to get Fox
Either way, this could get ugly come June.
Pretty much confirms that CMCSA will have to put up a bid no later than the end of the week of June 12th (i.e. June 15th). More likely though they would have the bid official the day after Judge Leon's ruling, if it goes the way they want it to. They want to give shareholders plenty of time to look at their offer.
EDIT:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-fox-set-july-10-shareholder-votes-524b-deal-1115667
Fox may postpone or adjourn the meeting, depending on what happens (i.e. if Comcast does make an offer and what the offer actually would be).
Disney also set July 10th as its shareholder voting date on the deal.
You have to think also how long does Fox want this to drag on? If one wants the best deal done so you can unload the assets you want to sell in the relatively shortest amount of time, that seems like that would be a factor.
This is true, he has a repuatation for being aggressive with what he wants, and he might even risk putting his company in huge debt for a while in order to get those assets.
Something tells me Roberts might have something up his sleeve that were not anticipating that he could use to nab Fox from the Mouse. Either way, this could get ugly come June.
Depends how far he wants to push. He doesn't have carte blanche either. The board may push back. Or shareholders. Huge institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock are not going to vote for it if they are gonna lose money. Funnily enough Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street are 3 of the Top 5 institutional shareholders for both CMCSA and DIS.
A key point in the HR article, which I believe hadn't been previously disclosed, was the Mouse's right to match a competing offer. Roberts is going to have to go a lot higher than the reported $60B - maybe $70B? - in order to prevent a counter offer from Iger.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Comcast stock the day the At&T decision is announced.
My prediction is that if the deal is approved, Comcast stock will drop and vice versa.
And that should be telling Roberts something that he may be too foolish to hear.
Someone on another board was thinking 80 or 90B which would be ridonculous. I would dump my CMCSA shares so quick if they offered that.
A regulatory filing in April showed Comcast offered to buy most of Fox's assets in an all-stock deal valued at $34.41 per share, or $64 billion last November, just before Disney's offer was agreed upon.
Yeah, just looking at the stock price since April 24 indicates to me that most investors aren't thrilled with Roberts' Ahab impersonation.
He might be able to get his $60 billion offer together (though even that isn't certain), but beyond that, I don't think lenders or other board members or shareholders are anxious to spend as much money as it will take to yank this away from Disney.
Roberts' only chance is for Fox to jump at the $60 billion offer and Disney to walk away... but that's simply not going to happen.
While I'm sure Disney doesn't want to have to pay more than they already have, they're going to go as high as they need to to get this done.
Huh? They offered 64B in November and yet Fox went with Disney.
What changes now?
Huh? They offered 64B in November and yet Fox went with Disney.
What changes now?
All cash vs all stock. Protection against regulatory block of the merger.
I think that's the logic, but it also shows that a $60 billion offer is far from a sure thing.
At first glance, the Comcast offer appears to be $7.5 billion higher than Disney.
But when you take the breakup fee out of that, that makes it just $6 billion higher than Disney, and I think that's, at best, borderline enough to get people at Fox interested enough to consider scrapping a Disney deal that's already well on it's way. The Disney deal should be closing by early next year. The Comcast deal likely wouldn't close until 2020, and that's a big problem. I can't really imagine, as a Fox shareholder, voting to scrap the Disney deal for a just a few bucks more while going back to square one.
The size of the offer makes me wonder if it really is a serious offer or simply put up for show by Comcast to make it look like they're doing something (and an attempt to force Disney to pay a little more).
If you have concerns over the timeline for regulatory review, dont. Regulators looking at a Comcast-Fox deal wouldnt be starting from scratch. Disney may appear to have a jump since its already started the process with U.S. agencies, but theyve also asked Comcast for material as part of that review, insiders say. If Fox shareholders go for Comcasts offer, the regulatory bodies already have a lot of the material in that scenario too.
I think that's the logic, but it also shows that a $60 billion offer is far from a sure thing.
At first glance, the Comcast offer appears to be $7.5 billion higher than Disney.
But when you take the breakup fee out of that, that makes it just $6 billion higher than Disney, and I think that's, at best, borderline enough to get people at Fox interested enough to consider scrapping a Disney deal that's already well on it's way. The Disney deal should be closing by early next year. The Comcast deal likely wouldn't close until 2020, and that's a big problem. I can't really imagine, as a Fox shareholder, voting to scrap the Disney deal for a just a few bucks more while going back to square one.
The size of the offer makes me wonder if it really is a serious offer or simply put up for show by Comcast to make it look like they're doing something (and an attempt to force Disney to pay a little more).
Another key issue is that the Murdochs are already moving on with "New Fox" in a big way. They've signed billion dollar deals with both the NFL and WWE in order to be less dependent on scripted entertainment and (according to one report) are managing the X-Men franchise in order to best fit in with their future Mouse overlords. Any benefits gained from the Kabletown overpay could be lost in pushing the transition already fully in motion back 6-9 months or more.
What report about the X-Men?