The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Kuwolski]

For some reason, strangely enough, I just had to watch FFRoSS again today (insomniac day, for some reason, either stress at work, or the light-headedness of getting my spring shearing of the hippie mane), and I noted something.

They called Galactus the "Destroyer".

AoS, this year with that "Destroyer of Worlds" thing.

A4 title of Avengers: Forever being the closest.


I think there is a side deal, gang. Our First Family is home, and A4 we get them.

Four, not For..... Avengers:FourEver.


I'm probably wrong, but... Hope...

When I saw the A4 production jacket, that's what I thought.

 

[Big Bang]

I think Roberts will up his bid on a Disney counteroffer though. It remains to be seen. Also, the losing side on Judge Leon's verdict can appeal. It'll be an interesting next couple of weeks nevertheless.

Even if AT&T were to appeal, TWX has major incentive to just collect the $500M breakup fee from AT&T failuring to secure DOJ approval and proceed to auction off its pieces. If no further extension past 6/21 is agreed to, then all bets are off.

It could theoretically make more than what AT&T was offering and possibly have an easier time getting regulatory approval. I think it is literally make or break for AT&T here.

If the At&T/TW merger was blocked then even if Comcast tried to force up the price the Fox shareholders are unlikely to care, they will take Disney's offer and everyone here will celebrate.

If AT&T loses, then it Comcast could very well be the next target of the DOJ, so they have bigger issues to worry about.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think Roberts will up his bid on a Disney counteroffer though. It remains to be seen. Also, the losing side on Judge Leon's verdict can appeal. It'll be an interesting next couple of weeks nevertheless.

They can appeal, but that appeal will take time. And Comcast has indicated their offer would be contingent on approval.

Presumably, if the AT&T deal isn't approved, there won't be a Comcast bid in the near future. And the longer the Disney/Fox deal goes without challenge, the less likely a competitive bid will be seriously considered.

 

[Detective Conan]

Just read the confirmed plot leak of Dark Phoenix....

Oh god. Well I can see why they're doing the reshoots. The X-Men needs to be hard rebooted ASAP.

 

[ADollarADay]

Analyst sees Comcast having an easier time than Disney making it through regulatory approval.

http://deadline.com/2018/05/comcast...one-old-media-company-in-10-years-1202398963/

Even if AT&T were to appeal, TWX has major incentive to just collect the $500M breakup fee from AT&T failuring to secure DOJ approval and proceed to auction off its pieces. If no further extension past 6/21 is agreed to, then all bets are off.

It could theoretically make more than what AT&T was offering and possibly have an easier time getting regulatory approval. I think it is literally make or break for AT&T here.

That's true. Good point. Interesting month ahead.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Stand down, Comcast

This isn’t your fight

 

[Marvel united]

13 days until the fight begins.. Or Comcast is buried

 

[Detective Conan]

.....Or wins.

 

[Kuwolski]

If they win at least the bad X-Men casting posts will end....

 

[Chance Jackson]

For some reason, strangely enough, I just had to watch FFRoSS again today (insomniac day, for some reason, either stress at work, or the light-headedness of getting my spring shearing of the hippie mane), and I noted something.

They called Galactus the "Destroyer".

AoS, this year with that "Destroyer of Worlds" thing.

A4 title of Avengers: Forever being the closest.


I think there is a side deal, gang. Our First Family is home, and A4 we get them.

Four, not For..... Avengers:FourEver.


I'm probably wrong, but... Hope...

When I saw the A4 production jacket, that's what I thought.

Only Black Panther should have a "Forever" subtitle

 

[Kuwolski]

Only Black Panther should have a "Forever" subtitle

#WakandaForever

 

[Big Bang]

Analyst sees Comcast having an easier time than Disney making it through regulatory approval.

http://deadline.com/2018/05/comcast...one-old-media-company-in-10-years-1202398963/

I don't follow his logic on how Comcast would have an easier time than Disney. I see he questions the overarching impact of the AT&T/TWX trial, but he really doesn't equate how Disney's path has more roadblocks.

His major point of argument seems to stem from Comcast being an ISP. I think is placing too much value there, especially since Comcast is locked out of certain markets and doesn't have coverage coast to coast. On that front it seems the best option is via mobile, which is a market Comcast has little to no presence. Even if we take his standpoint on face value, it would be AT&T that would better fit the role he has described, not Comcast. Further still, having an ISP in the SVOD top 3 makes no literal sense unless they do the one thing both companies have a very poor track record in, and that is investing in their existing infrastructure. Heck, AT&T just recently introduced Fiber Optic services into my town. Meanwhile, Comcast is still chugging on traditional Coax/Copper and has no plans to do any upgrades anytime soon.

Honestly, I think he is reaching with his entire argument.

 

[GoblinScrier]

Well July 10 is the day we will know one way or another if we will have a united MCU with F4 and X-Men or not:

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-fox-sets-disney-deal-vote-for-july-10-2018-5

 

[Marvel united]

Not gonna lie, a grown man will cry if X-Men don't come home

 

[Dark Raven]

So the Time Warner deal has to fall through in order for Comcast not to proceed.

What if the shareholders vote for Comcast but then Disney ups their bid? Do they have to vote again or going with the prevailing vote, regardless of what the offer is?

 

[Orba]

Well July 10 is the day we will know one way or another if we will have a united MCU with F4 and X-Men or not:

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-fox-sets-disney-deal-vote-for-july-10-2018-5

At least its not too long a wait, it will be nice to know once and for all rather than having the spectre of Comcast hanging around for months on end.

 

[Orba]

So the Time Warner deal has to fall through in order for Comcast not to proceed.

What if the shareholders vote for Comcast but then Disney ups their bid? Do they have to vote again or going with the prevailing vote, regardless of what the offer is?

Nah, the AT&T/TW verdict is expected on the 12th, depending on it we will see something from Comcast soon after followed by a reaction from Disney. The bidding war will be pretty much over by the time the shareholders vote.

 

[Dark Raven]

Nah, the AT&T/TW verdict is expected on the 12th, depending on it we will see something from Comcast soon after followed by a reaction from Disney. The bidding war will be pretty much over by the time the shareholders vote.

But that article said:

Comcast said last week it was preparing a higher, all-cash offer for most of the media assets of Fox, but sources say it will only proceed if a federal judge next month allows AT&T Inc's planned $85-billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc .

That suggests that they'll only proceed if the AT&T/ TW deal goes through. If not, then they won't proceed with Fox.

 

[Detective Conan]

Comcast's Weakness in Its Hunt for Fox Assets: Big Debt

Analysts say they're concerned that Comcast chairman and CEO Brian Roberts might be too willing to take on a pile of debt to beat his rival Disney as the companies gear up for what's likely to be a ferocious battle to gain ownership of large parts of 21st Century Fox.

Debate about the potential debt was re-ignited May 23 when the cable giant — after being rejected in its attempt to buy the Murdoch family-led company in late 2017 — said it was preparing an all-cash bid for the parts of Fox that Disney had agreed to buy in December in a $52.4 billion all-stock deal. Those assets include the 20th Century Fox studio, Fox's entertainment cable networks and its international assets, including its stake in Sky.

Since April, when news of Comcast's interest surfaced, its stock has plunged 8 percent. The drop is more than 20 percent this year, to $31.63 on May 24, near its 52-week low. Comcast's debt could rise "from just under $65 billion to a staggering $164 billion," says Moody's analyst Neil Begley, who is considering a debt-ratings downgrade since the deal would be a "departure from conservative financial policy." Excluding financial and government-related companies, that debt would be second only to the combined AT&T-Time Warner, he says Increased leverage would be a change in the investment thesis for many [investors]," adds Macquarie Capital analyst Amy Yong, who says a Fox deal could end up "tarnishing Comcast's pristine balance sheet."

Comcast is expected to make a final call after a judge rules in the antitrust lawsuit the Justice Department has filed to block AT&T's Time Warner acquisition. That ruling is due before June 12. If AT&T wins, Comcast will likely feel emboldened in its Fox hunt; if it loses, some of the sizzle might go out of the race.

Philadelphia-based Comcast would first have to convince Fox's board — which includes Rupert, Lachlan and James Murdoch — to drop its support for Disney. The Murdochs control Fox via their voting shares (even though they can only vote the 17 percent economic stake they hold in a shareholder vote on a sale), and their goal, at least in part, has been to join Disney's largest shareholders. To sweeten its deal, Comcast's offer probably will be high enough to cover a $1.525 billion termination fee that Fox would have to pay Disney — though that's a lot less than the $2.5 billion Disney would have to fork over to Fox should regulators block the deal.

Per its deal with Disney, Fox has to disclose any superior bid and give Disney at least five business days to increase its offer. But few expect chairman and CEO Bob Iger to be thrown off the scent easily. With deep pockets, "Disney is in a strong position to compete with a higher bid from Comcast," says MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson.

What's been bad news for Comcast has been good news for Fox; its stock has soared, trading near its 52-week high, close to $40.

"On its own, we would value Fox in the low-$30 [billion]s," says Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger. "Clearly the market [sees] a high probability of a bidding war."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/comcasts-weakness-hunt-fox-assets-big-debt-1115528

 

[Orba]

But that article said:



That suggests that they'll only proceed if the AT&T/ TW deal goes through. If not, then they won't proceed with Fox.

Its hard to say what Comcast will do if the AT&T/TW merger is blocked, they may still try to make an offer but Fox could be less interested in accepting. Comcast might also try to make an offer simply to try to get Disney to spend more money than they want to. If the AT&T/TW deal goes through then we will see the big reaction.

 

[ADollarADay]

Well July 10 is the day we will know one way or another if we will have a united MCU with F4 and X-Men or not:

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-fox-sets-disney-deal-vote-for-july-10-2018-5

Pretty much confirms that CMCSA will have to put up a bid no later than the end of the week of June 12th (i.e. June 15th). More likely though they would have the bid official the day after Judge Leon's ruling, if it goes the way they want it to. They want to give shareholders plenty of time to look at their offer.

EDIT:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-fox-set-july-10-shareholder-votes-524b-deal-1115667

Fox may postpone or adjourn the meeting, depending on what happens (i.e. if Comcast does make an offer and what the offer actually would be).

Disney also set July 10th as its shareholder voting date on the deal.

 

[Orba]

Well the initial Disney/Fox deal requires Fox to tell Disney of any superior bids then gives them 5 days to counter, so things should kick off pretty quickly once there is movement from Comcast.

 

[Tymminator]

It’s all just around the corner.

 

[Detective Conan]

June/July couldn’t come soon enough.

 

[Big Bang]

Comcast's Weakness in Its Hunt for Fox Assets: Big Debt

Just think, they are already going to be down $30B if they prevail with Sky.

Well the initial Disney/Fox deal requires Fox to tell Disney of any superior bids then gives them 5 days to counter, so things should kick off pretty quickly once there is movement from Comcast.

I strongly suspect that Disney is not having much of a problem lining up financing for any counter bids either, so Disney is all but certain to indicate they will match/exceed any competing bids.

June/July couldn’t come soon enough.

It's going to be a wild couple of weeks.