The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - Part 19

[Detective Conan]

It sounds almost like it's a bargaining ploy now saying that he would've let them have those rights if they let him have the rest of Fox. But is Iger content with just the Marvel rights?

Nope. Star India and other assets are far more profitable than the Marvel rights. Roberts knows this and that’s why he was willing to give those rights up to Iger.

 

[ironwez20]

Yea I kinda figured Comcast would of let marvel get those things back. I honestly think Disney already has the rights but are in the waiting

 

[Detective Conan]

Yea I kinda figured Comcast would of let marvel get those things back. I honestly think Disney already has the rights but are in the waiting

In a way, the speculation that the rights would return even if Comcast had bought Fox actually turned out to be true.(sort of).

lol.

 

[Dark Raven]

What does the article say? Can someone post it please? All I know is the title and that's all.

 

[ADollarADay]

I'm not a subscriber either, but this is the interesting tidbit:

Comcast’s 50-person deal team began working full-throttle on a possible larger move for the Fox assets Disney was buying. At one point, Comcast signaled to Disney it would be willing to split the spoils, where Comcast would take international assets including Star India and Sky, and Disney would take domestic assets, people familiar with the matter said. Disney didn’t engage and has since ruled out that possibility.
Comcast also entertained discussions with Amazon.com Inc. to see whether carving up the Fox assets could offer a smoother regulatory path, these people said.

 

[Big Bang]

I'm not a subscriber either, but this is the interesting tidbit:

Interesting indeed. If Comcast succeeds in getting the 61% of Sky, then it sounds like the door may be open to getting ALL of the Marvel rights back from Universal. Granted, it is going to take a lot more than those rights to get Disney to give up the 39% it will likely be getting. Perhaps Comcast's share of Hulu as well as $$$.

 

[Detective Conan]

Makes sense, even though we fans care most about the Marvel rights at the end of the day those are not anywhere near as valuable as Sky, Star India. etc.

 

[Detective Conan]

Interesting indeed. If Comcast succeeds in getting the 61% of Sky, then it sounds like the door may be open to getting ALL of the Marvel rights back from Universal. Granted, it is going to take a lot more than those rights to get Disney to give up the 39% it will likely be getting. Perhaps Comcast's share of Hulu as well as $$$.

In your opinion how likely is it that Disney will win Sky? Because at this point, I feel the Mouse might be overpaying for the Fox assets and that’s inevitably is going to take a huge toll on their ability to get Sky. The fact they’re in a bidding war with Comcast over the Fox assets means they’re going to pull in a lot of financing. In the end: Comcast is going to win and get something out of this whether it’s Fox, or Sky. Comcast is walking away with something in the end imo.

 

[Dark Raven]

Maybe Disney will give Comcast all the Marvel rights in exchange for Sky and Star India.

 

[Zarex]

Makes sense, even though we fans care most about the Marvel rights at the end of the day those are not anywhere near as valuable as Sky, Star India. etc.

That's true, but the foreign assets are pricey and have risks that don't exist with rights reversion. Sky will require billions in future technological investments and is a completely new business for the Mouse. And Disney's prior expansion efforts on the Indian subcontinent have largely been failures. Marvel rights reversion is a 100% sure thing.

Iger addressed the "split the baby" option in his conference call by stating that his agreement with Fox "precludes that from occurring".

 

[Big Bang]

In your opinion how likely is it that Disney will win Sky? Because at this point, I feel the Mouse might be overpaying for the Fox assets and that’s inevitably is going to take a huge toll on their ability to get Sky. The fact they’re in a bidding war with Comcast over the Fox assets means they’re going to pull in a lot of financing. In the end: Comcast is going to win and get something out of this whether it’s Fox, or Sky. Comcast is walking away with something in the end imo.

Disney is going to over pay for Fox. That is a foregone conclusion. They don't need Sky, and they were probably banking on nobody else trying to nab them too. They are a crown jewel, but the bits Disney is after are the crown itself.

IMO, Comcast getting Sky is a definite outcome.

 

[Detective Conan]

Disney is going to over pay for Fox. That is a foregone conclusion. They don't need Sky, and they were probably banking on nobody else trying to nab them too. They are a crown jewel, but the bits Disney is after are the crown itself.

IMO, Comcast getting Sky is a definite outcome.

What do you think of both of Greenfield's analysis here and here Does he make some good points? What's your take?

 

[Zarex]

I know this question wasn't directed toward me, but I agree with a lot of what Greefield is saying. Now his idea that Disney should buy Spotify, Twitter or a major video game concern doesnt make sense to me. But investing well over $70B in assets that (for the most part) don't help with the launch of Disneyflix or ESPN Plus expansion (the RSNs are likely being spun off) doesn't either. The foreign assets are valuable, but the are (mostly) distribution oriented which is a business in which the Mouse hasn't focused, and require billions in future investment.

I'd love for the Marvel rights to revert, but there's a reason Rupert's looking to sell Old Fox at this time. It may be in Iger's best interests to lose the bidding war and see what he can pick up from the highly leveraged New Kabletown.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

A week ago, I thought Comcast wanted it more, but Disney had more resources and the ability to go highest if they chose to.

But the more I see and hear, the more convinced I become that Disney has the greater desire and resources AND most advantageous position.

Comcast may bid again, but if they do, I think Disney will quickly beat it.

And I suspect Comcast is realizing this too and may not bid again. They might like the idea of making Disney pay more, but there's also a cost to them in terms of jerking their stock-price around plus the harder they go after it, the more it looks like they need it and the bigger the disappointment when they don't get it.

So I suspect Comcast is seriously considering stopping here, and/or doing what they can to try to get something from Disney.

And if they are trying to get something from Disney, and Disney knows the DOJ decision is imminent, Disney might jerk them around for a while.

 

[Dark Raven]

A week ago, I thought Comcast wanted it more, but Disney had more resources and the ability to go highest if they chose to.

But the more I see and hear, the more convinced I become that Disney has the greater desire and resources AND most advantageous position.

Comcast may bid again, but if they do, I think Disney will quickly beat it.

And I suspect Comcast is realizing this too and may not bid again. They might like the idea of making Disney pay more, but there's also a cost to them in terms of jerking their stock-price around plus the harder they go after it, the more it looks like they need it and the bigger the disappointment when they don't get it.

So I suspect Comcast is seriously considering stopping here, and/or doing what they can to try to get something from Disney.

And if they are trying to get something from Disney, and Disney knows the DOJ decision is imminent, Disney might jerk them around for a while.

Why do you think Comcast won't bid again? There is Brian Roberts's pride at stake here as well, which won't necessarily make him think rationally. Yes, any other rational person might do what you suggest, but there is also years of bitter rivalry between him and Iger. When he's gone this far, can Brian back down from this fight now?

Of course, if he did lose, I bet he will go after Sony to try to get Spider-Man away from Marvel.

I don't know about this suggestion in the WSJ that Comcast were willing to give Disney the Marvel rights. I still haven't read that article yet because no-one has posted the full thing. But would he have been so willing to do that, knowing that keeping them out of Disney's reach would piss off Marvel and fans of the MCU?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Why do you think Comcast won't bid again? There is Brian Roberts's pride at stake here as well, which won't necessarily make him think rationally. Yes, any other rational person might do what you suggest, but there is also years of bitter rivalry between him and Iger. When he's gone this far, can Brian back down from this fight now?

Of course, if he did lose, I bet he will go after Sony to try to get Spider-Man away from Marvel.

I don't know about this suggestion in the WSJ that Comcast were willing to give Disney the Marvel rights. I still haven't read that article yet because no-one has posted the full thing. But would he have been so willing to do that, knowing that keeping them out of Disney's reach would piss off Marvel and fans of the MCU?

Well first off, as I said, I think Disney is determined to get this, and they have the resources to keep going. Even from Robert's prideful point of view, if he realizes this is ultimately a losing proposition, it will cost less pride to quit now than it would to continue and still lose.

But more importantly, Roberts is just the CEO. He's not omnipotent and the board is the one making the real decision. They're only going to stand with him to a point. If it's obvious he has an Ahab-like obsession, the board's responsibility is to the company and the shareholders - not Robert's irrational obsession.

But even with that, I think there's still a good possibility Comcast will bid again, but there's increasing reason for them to not keep pushing in what is likely to be a losing battle.

 

[Zarex]

I don't know about this suggestion in the WSJ that Comcast were willing to give Disney the Marvel rights. I still haven't read that article yet because no-one has posted the full thing. But would he have been so willing to do that, knowing that keeping them out of Disney's reach would piss off Marvel and fans of the MCU?

The WSJ article said that Roberts was willing to concede all of Old Fox's domestic assets to either Disney or Verizon so long as Kabletown got Sky and Star. In his conference call after the improved bid, Iger said that an asset split wasn't allowed per the terms of his deal with Rupert. Which makes sense, as "all of nothing" bidding raises the price higher than a coordinated deal.

 

[Dark Raven]

The WSJ article said that Roberts was willing to concede all of Old Fox's domestic assets to either Disney or Verizon so long as Kabletown got Sky and Star. In his conference call after the improved bid, Iger said that an asset split wasn't allowed per the terms of his deal with Rupert. Which makes sense, as "all of nothing" bidding raises the price higher than a coordinated deal.

Well wouldn't Roberts have known there would be something like that which would prevent Iger from giving up assets? If Iger can't do that anyway, then it's pointless for Roberts to say that this is what he would've been willing to do, because it's all moot.

 

[Detective Conan]

The WSJ article said that Roberts was willing to concede all of Old Fox's domestic assets to either Disney or Verizon so long as Kabletown got Sky and Star. In his conference call after the improved bid, Iger said that an asset split wasn't allowed per the terms of his deal with Rupert. Which makes sense, as "all of nothing" bidding raises the price higher than a coordinated deal.

Do you agree with Greenfield’s conclusion that Comcast will likely end up the victor in this bidding war? Or do you think Disney will likely end up overspending on assets just to win?

 

[Dark Raven]

[YT]NOgDETolXlU[/YT]

Is this guy English or American? Most of the time he sounds English, but he has a slight American twang occasionally. It's almost a mid-atlantic accent with more emphasis on the British accent. Most of his pronunciations are British - eg Comcarst rather than Comcaahst.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

The WSJ article said that Roberts was willing to concede all of Old Fox's domestic assets to either Disney or Verizon so long as Kabletown got Sky and Star. In his conference call after the improved bid, Iger said that an asset split wasn't allowed per the terms of his deal with Rupert. Which makes sense, as "all of nothing" bidding raises the price higher than a coordinated deal.

Interesting that he said that rather than saying they really needed/wanted Sky and Star. That would increase the possibility that Disney could sell Sky and Star to Comcast after they get those assets from Fox. That could be being discussed behind closed doors right now.

And as we've discussed before, such a deal couldn't be conditional or that would violate anti-trust laws:

"If you stop bidding, we'll sell you Star and Sky for $X.XX" illegal.

"If we acquire the assets for less than $Y.YY, we'll sell you Star and Sky for $X.XX" legal.

 

[Big Bang]

What do you think of both of Greenfield's analysis here and here Does he make some good points? What's your take?

He does have several good points in the first video. Comcast wanting Sky is obvious, but he didn't address the point of Comcast likely winning the 61% of Sky in the UK. If things keep going to sky high levels (no pun intended) for Fox in the US, then that means the likely anybody getting both Fox and Sky are slim should Sky break out into another bidding war, which is almost an absolute right now. Overall, yes Comcast wants to replicate its business on a global scale, but right now it is in a good position to at least win a majority stake in Sky, and I personally believe that will open the door to some kind of détente with Disney for some deal making. Each side will end up with something the other wants, and that is what can bring each to the table for some kind of resolution. Still would be very tense and hostile, but something can hashed out.

His point of Disney doubling down on their existing content creation through internal investment is his best point. Should Disney be looking to do that? Absolutely, but there in lies part of the problem, especially for Marvel. Everybody here knows the score with the Marvel properties, and I think he is vastly underestimating the steps needed to fix that situation. Everyone here knows to get those rights back is going to be expensive, and with Disney having to whip its funds it might as well go big and get more for its money. With Disney's ability to turn investments around for good ROI, it makes fiscal sense to acquire additional properties. Avatar for example, is another one they can easily leverage, and with them being at WDW already it makes since to make that a vertical asset.

Overall his argument is centered on Sky, and the battle for the 61% is one I see Comcast winning. That is the pivot point that will force Disney at some point to have to deal with Comcast directly, but there could be quite a few positives opportunities there as well.

 

[Big Bang]

I also don't buy into the argument any of the major media companies will buy into the gaming market. Look no further than what Disney has done with the gaming assets it either tried to grow organically or acquired. It is not going to spend billions of $$ just to jump into a market it just retreated from. Comcast is in the same boat. Their focus is replicating or expanding its existing business model. It's isn't' gong to jump into a new market from which it has no experience at this point.

The only media corp that has had any kind of success is Warner, and there they have only had at best a moderate footprint, with Warner Interactive and Midway.

Sony is a different beast, being more of a tech company that owns both gaming and studio assets, and even there is a very good possibility that the studio assets will be sold.

If anybody were to try to acquire either an EA or Activision right now, it would very likely be someone like Microsoft or Amazon.

 

[Detective Conan]

Overall his argument is centered on Sky, and the battle for the 61% is one I see Comcast winning. That is the pivot point that will force Disney at some point to have to deal with Comcast directly, but there could be quite a few positives opportunities there as well.

Yeah, I just don’t see Comcast getting both Fox and Sky. That’d be too much of a win and Iger will have to live that failure down for the rest of life. The potential failure to acquire the Fox assets will be the one blemish in Iger’s relatively spotless acquisition history. But imo I really do find that there are some of Fox’s assets that would fit better at Comcast than Disney(mostly the international ones like Star India) and I feel the Mouse would be better off just ‘splitting the baby’(don’t like that term) but it’s to my understanding that the deal made precludes that option but boy I wish that was on the table because now Disney is now going to have to go through an extremely costly bidding war for the Fox assets — so costly that even if they win the company will likely be faced with crippling debt and plummeted shares(same goes for Comcast).

No matter who ‘wins’ this bidding war the victor still is the loser.

The only real winners in all of this is Rupert Murdoch and the Fox shareholders. They love the fact it’s come to a bidding war as they’ll ultimately end up laughing all the way to the bank with more money than if there wasn’t a bidding war. While I do think Disney will ultimately ‘win’ the bidding the war for Fox they still would lose in other ways, and Comcast will win in other ways. Same with Comcast if they god forbid win Fox.

 

[Zarex]

Do you agree with Greenfield’s conclusion that Comcast will likely end up the victor in this bidding war? Or do you think Disney will likely end up overspending on assets just to win?

I'm completely clueless on how it will turn out, but I am leaning in the direction that it may be in Iger's long term best interests to lose the bidding war. That's assuming he can pry away Marvel (including EOM theme park), Star Wars and (perhaps) Avatar rights away from Kabletown either as part of the breakup fee or after the deal closes and Roberts is looking to shed assets to pay down his ginormous debt burden.

Greenfield's main point, that Disney should pour these billions into content for Disneyflix (as Netflix is doing) instead of paying for infrastructure (TV and movie studios, cable networks, satellite TV service) makes an awful lot of sense.