The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - Part 19

[Big Bang]

100B (~$54/share) + Fox debt + Disney break up fee + Sky 31B (which would HAVE to be higher due to aforementioned Fox bid) = ~150B in additional debt on top of the current 66B debt.

Not only Disney immediately walk away as they have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders, but also Comcast shareholders would have to consider some type of legal action against the board being extremely careless. Especially since shareholders would not vote on this.

and that assumes Sky (61%) bidding by itself doesn't go higher. If it ever does, then oh boy....

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Have we heard anything today?

 

[Detective Conan]

Have we heard anything today?

Nope. And that’s eerily unusual since the last few weeks had been a constant influx of news. Now after Disney’s bid, the news cycle about the bidding war has been quiet but unlike many here, I don’t take any solace in that since I feel Comcast is likely preparing for an “All or nothing” aggressive bid of 95+ billion dollars(along with stock thrown in for good measure) and they’re likely biding their time until they launch their suprise final counter-bid.

 

[Dark Raven]

Have we heard anything today?

I heard some music today and people speaking. Lots of sounds on the road too. A train pulling into a station. Birds in the trees. Too many things to list.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

No no no you have misunderstood, my friend. I was asking if anyone has heard something regarding the rumored Disney-Fox merger, which would bring characters like the X-Men, Deadpool and The Fantastic Four to the extraordinarily successful marvel cinematic universe, something that fans all over the world have been clamoring for.

Hopefully that clears up any confusion.

 

[Detective Conan]

No no no you have misunderstood, my friend. I was asking if anyone has heard something regarding the rumored Disney-Fox merger, which would bring characters like the X-Men, Deadpool and The Fantastic Four to the extraordinarily successful marvel cinematic universe, something that fans all over the world have been clamoring for.

Hopefully that clears up any confusion.

Dark Raven is just joking with you, man.

 

[Crimz]

Nope. And that’s eerily unusual since the last few weeks had been a constant influx of news. Now after Disney’s bid, the news cycle about the bidding war has been quiet but unlike many here, I don’t take any solace in that since I feel Comcast is likely preparing for an “All or nothing” aggressive bid of 95+ billion dollars(along with stock thrown in for good measure) and they’re likely biding their time until they launch their suprise final counter-bid.

If Comcast ever bids that much then all I have to say is

Disney would let the fools have Fox at that stupid price. That would be crippling their company for what? A p*ssing contest?
I'd be upset that the FF wouldn't be with Disney, but Comcast grossly overpaying and jeopardizing themselves would be a great consolation prize.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

Dark Raven is just joking with you, man.

Lol i'm pretty sure Chip was joking too. He was laying it on pretty thick.

(if you were already aware of this and making a third-level joke, then i suppose the jokes on me.)

 

[Drexelhand]

If Comcast ever bids that much then all I have to say is

Disney would let the fools have Fox at that stupid price. That would be crippling their company for what? A p*ssing contest?
I'd be upset that the FF wouldn't be with Disney, but Comcast grossly overpaying and jeopardizing themselves would be a great consolation prize.

You underestimate Brian Roberts' pettiness. Get ready for that ***** to put your guys' internet prices up if he does something like that.

 

[Orba]

You underestimate Brian Roberts' pettiness. Get ready for that ***** to put your guys' internet prices up if he does something like that.

At that price Comcast would be the most indebted company around, passing AT&T's current level. Comcast's debt rating is already under review by Moody's and by S&P Global Rating, and thats for the debt levels they would have if they had won at $65 billion. Comcast can't go that high without fallout no matter what Robert's might want to do.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Friday is a big day to me. If Comcast goes through this whole week without a new bid or at least something indicating they intend to submit a new bid, I think it becomes increasingly possible they won't bid again.

Last week we saw the report that the DOJ may be a couple weeks from finishing, so next week will be a couple weeks from that report.

 

[GoblinScrier]

Friday is a big day to me. If Comcast goes through this whole week without a new bid or at least something indicating they intend to submit a new bid, I think it becomes increasingly possible they won't bid again.

Last week we saw the report that the DOJ may be a couple weeks from finishing, so next week will be a couple weeks from that report.

That seems to be a logical conclusion but with this being an epic battle for supremacy, Comcast might be just crazy enough to go for broke to beat Disney at all cost...but I wouldn't understand the logic of Murdoch going with Comcast with a bigger bid if the DOJ report is almost finished...the deal with Disney would be done and then move on versus having to do this all over again with Comcast, if I am understanding that right?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Murdoch is not the only voice, though. The shareholders will ultimately decide this thing if Comcast ups their bid.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That seems to be a logical conclusion but with this being an epic battle for supremacy, Comcast might be just crazy enough to go for broke to beat Disney at all cost...but I wouldn't understand the logic of Murdoch going with Comcast with a bigger bid if the DOJ report is almost finished...the deal with Disney would be done and then move on versus having to do this all over again with Comcast, if I am understanding that right?

It's not out of the question that Fox could still go with a higher bid from Comcast after the DOJ finishes (since nothing has been finalized), but it does become a big hurdle.

If the board and shareholders can see the light at the end of the tunnel, it will become a case of "a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush", so Comcast will have to offer a very high bid at that point to convince shareholders to scrap a nearly complete deal.

 

[Big Bang]

That seems to be a logical conclusion but with this being an epic battle for supremacy, Comcast might be just crazy enough to go for broke to beat Disney at all cost...but I wouldn't understand the logic of Murdoch going with Comcast with a bigger bid if the DOJ report is almost finished...the deal with Disney would be done and then move on versus having to do this all over again with Comcast, if I am understanding that right?

It's also possible that Comcast could pass on Fox at this point, and double down on their bid for Sky. Winning the majority share would likely bring the two sides to the table since each side would have something the other wants.

 

[GoblinScrier]

Murdoch is not the only voice, though. The shareholders will ultimately decide this thing if Comcast ups their bid.

You are right...I realized that once I submitted it lol...true not just Murdoch...he may be the face of the company but like all big corporations, a board is there....just hope it doesn't turn into Oscorp in Spiderman 1..."You're out Murdoch!" LOL

 

[Dark Raven]

You are right...I realized that once I submitted it lol...true not just Murdoch...he may be the face of the company but like all big corporations, a board is there....just hope it doesn't turn into Oscorp in Spiderman 1..."You're out Murdoch!" LOL

But it needs to turn into that for Brian Roberts with Comcast. He can say "Do you know how much I sacrificed?"

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

You are right...I realized that once I submitted it lol...true not just Murdoch...he may be the face of the company but like all big corporations, a board is there....just hope it doesn't turn into Oscorp in Spiderman 1..."You're out Murdoch!" LOL

But Murdoch can steer the board and the board can steer shareholders up to a point. If Murdoch and the board say, "We are recommending this offer because of X, Y and Z." most shareholders will go with their recommendation. And again, it's a matter of Comcast can do it, but it requires more.

If the sale is approved by the DOJ and the board has recommended the Disney bid, Comcast will have to offer a substantially higher bid to make shareholders go against the board.

Under normal circumstances, a 10% higher bid should be enough to shake things up. If the deal has been approved and the board says it's the best course, Comcast would probably have to go 15-20% higher than Disney to stay in it.

 

[Big Bang]

You are right...I realized that once I submitted it lol...true not just Murdoch...he may be the face of the company but like all big corporations, a board is there....just hope it doesn't turn into Oscorp in Spiderman 1..."You're out Murdoch!" LOL

Technically, it can't. Lots of boardroom drama is steeped in legalese. Many of the other board members are in the same boat as Murdoch in regards to capital gains tax. Other large shareholders as well. Which emphasize why Disney's offer is structured so well.

 

[Big Bang]

But Murdoch can steer the board and the board can steer shareholders up to a point. If Murdoch and the board say, "We are recommending this offer because of X, Y and Z." many shareholders will go with their recommendation. And again, it's a matter of Comcast can do it, but it requires more.

If the sale is approved by the DOJ and the board has recommended the Disney bid, Comcast will have to offer a substantially higher bid to make shareholders go against the board.

Under normal circumstances, a 10% higher bid should be enough to shake things up. If the deal has been approved and the board says it's the best course, Comcast would probably have to go 15-20% higher than Disney to stay in it.

and even then, that is no guarantee Comcast will even get approval from the DOJ for a deal. Disney can argue that even if their offer is lower, it can closed quickly due to already having regulatory approval while Comcast's is still subject to review that could be several months away or longer from any possible closure. A lot can happen in that time as well.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

and even then, that is no guarantee Comcast will even get approval from the DOJ for a deal. Disney can argue that even if their offer is lower, it can closed quickly due to already having regulatory approval while Comcast's is still subject to review that could be several months away or longer from any possible closure. A lot can happen in that time as well.

Yeah, Disney has some inherent advantages by being the original bidder and being this far along in the process.

Plus, I'm becoming more and more convinced that Disney not only has more resources, but also wants it more. That's a losing proposition for Comcast and they may realize that and be considering stopping at this point.

In any case, I think we're clearly in a "go big or go home" situation for Comcast and I suspect they're currently debating which of those is best.

We're not going to get a $41 per share offer at this point. It's either going to be $45+ or nothing.

 

[Big Bang]

Yeah, Disney has some inherent advantages by being the original bidder and being this far along in the process.

Plus, I'm becoming more and more convinced that Disney not only has more resources, but also wants it more. That's a losing proposition for Comcast and they may realize that and be considering stopping at this point.

In any case, I think we're clearly in a "go big or go home" situation for Comcast and I suspect they're currently debating which of those is best.

We're not going to get a $41 per share offer at this point. It's either going to be $45+ or nothing.

I'm wondering now if Comcast underestimated the speed in which Disney could get through regulatory approval. The months of waiting for an end to the AT&T trial certainly did them no favors. Got to hand it to Iger for taking the chance on even making the deal with so much uncertainty hanging over the market.

Now, we're almost a full week since the revised deal and Comcast still hasn't responded. Whatever they are doing, it doesn't help their cause if the DOJ approval is coming as quickly as what was leaked. It just seems like there are so many factors working against Comcast. Perhaps the universe is trying to tell them something.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I'm wondering now if Comcast underestimated the speed in which Disney could get through regulatory approval. The months of waiting for an end to the AT&T trial certainly did them no favors. Got to hand it to Iger for taking the chance on even making the deal with so much uncertainty hanging over the market.

Now, we're almost a full week since the revised deal and Comcast still hasn't responded. Whatever they are doing, it doesn't help their cause if the DOJ approval is coming as quickly as what was leaked. It just seems like there are so many factors working against Comcast. Perhaps the universe is trying to tell them something.

I think the AT&T decision was a double-edged sword for Comcast. Yeah, it made it more likely that a Comcast deal would go through, but it also greased the Disney deal.

Even if the DOJ has some concerns, the judge's statement after the AT&T decision should have them erring on the side of approval. And with Disney and Fox (by all reports) preparing so well and making extra sure potential conflicts were eliminated before the investigation began, it's likely going much smoother for Disney than anybody would have anticipated 6 months ago.

 

[Iceman]

Bloomberg: Fox Says Regulatory Concerns Could Delay, Derail Any Comcast Bid

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Bloomberg: Fox Says Regulatory Concerns Could Delay, Derail Any Comcast Bid