Yep. At this point, there is far, far too much uncertainty to accept any offers from Comcast now.
The shareholders are going to take the sure bet.
This is the truth 100%.
I was talking to a couple of friends who have way more shares than me and still haven't cast their vote. We all concur that it will be hard for CMCSA to come up with anything worthy for smart investors.
With AT&T acting like idiots and doing a 180 on what they said during trial (within 60 days of closing lol) and the DOJ appealing the T/TWX decision then it'll give us a lot of uncertainties for CMCSA bid.
Roberts is in a top spot, he can come in at 90B and still be balked at simply because Disney already got approved and it'll close by the end of the year. There's no guarantee CMCSA will close the deal. I feel empathy for Roberts right now. There's literally nothing he can do. In those situations I go to the gym and hit the weights hard. Or go hit the bags or spar with people. High level execs like him probably do coke and have prostitutes out. That's probably what he's doing now.
Iger and Disney are now 100% guaranteed to not raise their bid. They have DOJ approval, a 6 month+ headstart, backing from the Fox sport and biggest shareholders, and appeal from DOJ on T/TWX. If Fox tries to back out of the Disney deal and try to ask for more money, DIS will take the 1.5B. I know it, you know it, everyone knows it. Smart money is taking the 71B. Good for DIS investors as it doesn't dilute as much as the previous offer and long term debt and balance sheet can be fixed in a few years with higher cash flow and good management. Good for FOX investors as they get more money/stock. Bad for Comcast. Bad for Disney fans who want immediate results (i.e. new theme park lands everywhere today).
If the deal closes by Christmas, they could attach any after credits scenes they want to any of the 2019 films.
If the July 27th vote goes as expected, Feige and friends can plan and shoot an alternate post credit scene or two. In the unlikely scenario the deal takes longer than expected (i.e. still not approved by the time A4 comes out), then they can just release another post credit scene. Low risk, high reward.
Like I said, unless some unforeseen thing happens this deal will close by Xmas and people here will get a nice Xmas present. First round is on you Willie.
So when this deal finally happens, I take it this thread will close and new Fantastic Four and X-Men threads will be opened up?
No. Disney and Marvel will still need the outstanding rights that Comcast owns and Spider-Man. The former can possibly be coming soon after Disney closes the deal with Fox, so Hulk/Namor movie rights + theme park rights in Orlando and Spiderman in Japan may soon be all Disney (or on the way, the theme park rights would be phased out, I'm certain).
Disney would then focus on getting Spidey 100% back in house. That's the outstanding item this thread would focus on IMO.