The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - Part 20

[Zarex]

https://amp.businessinsider.com/dis...ssets-to-heat-up-2018-7?utm_source=reddit.com

I doubt very much a $80B bid stops the merger vote on the 27th. And if the vote takes place I have confidence that Rupert will push it through.

 

[Iceman]

I think at this stage Comcast will have tested the patience of some voters too far who would have otherwise voted for them. They have really played their hand badly and will have to beat Disney's (final) bid by a much larger amount than they previously would have.

 

[Nardz937]

I understand concerns about it feeling too similar to Cap and Incredibles (apparently from reading this thread they're from the 60s too? I haven't seen those movies).

My main problem is if you do it in current day then they're not "The First Family". If they come after The Avengers and The Guardians, what's so special about that? They're just some other team of superheros.

When Stan Lee made the F4 with Jack Kirby in 1961, they were the first characters he made that exploded, they literally saved his career in comics, without them The Avengers ,Spider-Man, etc wouldn't exist. When they bring 4 into the MCU I'd like to see them establish the importance of that.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I understand concerns about it feeling too similar to Cap and Incredibles (apparently from reading this thread they're from the 60s too? I haven't seen those movies).

My main problem is if you do it in current day then they're not "The First Family". If they come after The Avengers and The Guardians, what's so special about that? They're just some other team of superheros.

When Stan Lee made the F4 with Jack Kirby in 1961, they were the first characters he made that exploded, they literally saved his career in comics, without them The Avengers ,Spider-Man, etc wouldn't exist. When they bring 4 into the MCU I'd like to see them establish the importance of that.

The wife of the President is not the 1st women ever, yet they call her the First Lady, correct? They can have that title by being media darlings, regardless when they arrive.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

https://amp.businessinsider.com/dis...ssets-to-heat-up-2018-7?utm_source=reddit.com

"Comcast has roughly $6 billion in cash, compared to Disney's $4 billion. "If it has to be an all cash bid, it would suggest that Comcast is in a stronger position," he added."

Ummm, are you factoring that Comcast has to pay a $1.5 billion break-up fee (and Disney doesn't) into your numbers, Steve?

And why would Disney go to all cash? They've got a stronger offer with their cash/stock option because the allows shareholders who are in for a big capital gains hit to take the stock and people who prefer cash to take the cash.

Why would anybody even speculate "If it has to be an all cash bid" when there's no reason or logic to it being and all cash bid?

 

[Scarecrow_King]

Plus, I wouldn't call the Avengers a family. Guardians is more of a family, but nobody on Earth even knows they exist.

First Family can have an emotional pull to it because unlike the Avengers, they're more than just a team. They are that family.

 

[Crimz]

I understand concerns about it feeling too similar to Cap and Incredibles (apparently from reading this thread they're from the 60s too? I haven't seen those movies).

My main problem is if you do it in current day then they're not "The First Family". If they come after The Avengers and The Guardians, what's so special about that? They're just some other team of superheros.

When Stan Lee made the F4 with Jack Kirby in 1961, they were the first characters he made that exploded, they literally saved his career in comics, without them The Avengers ,Spider-Man, etc wouldn't exist. When they bring 4 into the MCU I'd like to see them establish the importance of that.

The first family title is not that important that it is a necessity. It's important in the comics, but not so important that it's a must have. What's really important is that the FF expand the Marvel universe, they explore, they are an actual family with super-heroics as the cherry on top. Those are what matters most for a FF film and what separates them from other teams, not being the "first".

Even retroactively making them be from the 60s wouldn't make them the first in the eyes of the average movie goer. That will always be Iron Man, he was the guy that set the MCU heroic phase in action. They will never truly be the first in the MCU and that's OK as they don't need to be.

 

[Drexelhand]

I understand concerns about it feeling too similar to Cap and Incredibles (apparently from reading this thread they're from the 60s too? I haven't seen those movies).

My main problem is if you do it in current day then they're not "The First Family". If they come after The Avengers and The Guardians, what's so special about that? They're just some other team of superheros.

When Stan Lee made the F4 with Jack Kirby in 1961, they were the first characters he made that exploded, they literally saved his career in comics, without them The Avengers ,Spider-Man, etc wouldn't exist. When they bring 4 into the MCU I'd like to see them establish the importance of that.

Apocalypse is the first mutant, but Namor is still called Marvel's first mutant.

 

[HBarnill]

If they somehow do get the rights to X-Men back, please wait a bit longer for Logan to come back. At least 8 years after his last film. It’s just too soon to bring him back after the emotional wreck that last film made us.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Whether or not they do the FF as retro, I do hope they stretch things back through time with characters like Apocalypse, Namor, the original Human Torch, Wolverine etc.

The Marvel Comics Universe is a rich world filled with characters that spread out over space and time. The idea that everybody popped up out of nowhere starting in the late 2000's doesn't really feel right.

 

[Endeavor]

Apocalypse is the first mutant

Only if you're an editor and/or writer who doeesn't do his homework... Selene predates him by millenia.

 

[Big Bang]

https://amp.businessinsider.com/dis...ssets-to-heat-up-2018-7?utm_source=reddit.com

 

[The Guard]

I think at this stage Comcast will have tested the patience of some voters too far who would have otherwise voted for them. They have really played their hand badly and will have to beat Disney's (final) bid by a much larger amount than they previously would have.

I can't see why patience would be an issue here when we're talking these kinds of numbers. Another ten billion potentially buys some more patience, I would think.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I can't see why patience would be an issue here when we're talking these kinds of numbers. Another ten billion potentially buys some more patience, I would think.

$10 Bilion more is just a little over 10%. And if it’s all cash and an investor has a lot of shares (and a lot of votes) that will be a big hit on capital gains taxes ( that will make the higher bid net many investors less than Disney’s stock offer ). It’s also less certain. Disney has passed DOJ approval, Comcast hasn’t. Comcast shareholders might also reject such an offer since the offer plus break-up fee plus Fox debt will take them to about $100 billion debt.

Fox shareholders would be trading a sure thing and in many ways more attractive offer for a deal that could fall through and leave their investment worth less than half of what it would have been with the Disney deal.

It would be a foolish move unless Comcast goes a lot higher than that, and even a much higher bid would be questionable because it would be more likely to be rejected by Comcast shareholders.

 

[Dark Raven]

Whether or not they do the FF as retro, I do hope they stretch things back through time with characters like Apocalypse, Namor, the original Human Torch, Wolverine etc.

The Marvel Comics Universe is a rich world filled with characters that spread out over space and time. The idea that everybody popped up out of nowhere starting in the late 2000's doesn't really feel right.

I see what you did there again.

 

[Iceman]

I can't see why patience would be an issue here. Another ten billion potentially buys some more patience, I would think.

You’ve just explained it in your 2nd sentence. $10B or some huge figure like that is the cost they will have to pay for testing the patience of Fox shareholders. Have you bought/sold property often before? If you accept and progress significantly with a bid from one party, the longer it takes the other rival party to respond and counterbid, the more they will have to come up with. If they counterbid on exchange of contract day they will be seriously testing your patience unless the premium is absolutely huge.

On top of this, with complex company merger transactions, there is a large opportunity cost in the time taken to progress with a bid that doesn’t eventually proceed due to antitrust action. So a progressed bid that already has some levels of approval is only going to be put to the side in favour of a new bid which is on more shaky regulatory ground for a very large amount. Also why late bids on property are usually only entertained from cash buyers if they aren’t a lot higher. If you come in soon after the original bidder then the seller is much more open to just letting the highest bidder win. And if you are having to arrange finance or delay for some other reason unknown to the seller, it’s worth at least making a statement that you are intending to rebid as soon as those issues are resolved.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Just saw Ant Man & The Wasp, which was way more enjoyable than it should've been, and without using spoilers I don't see how the F4 being in the Quantum Realm is gonna work.

But at the helm, Reed could tell a satisfying story.

Disney-Fox, just hurry this up!!!

 

[The Guard]

$10 Bilion more is just a little over 10%. And if it’s all cash and an investor has a lot of shares (and a lot of votes) that will be a big hit on capital gains taxes ( that will make the higher bid net many investors less than Disney’s stock offer ). It’s also less certain. Disney has passed DOJ approval, Comcast hasn’t. Comcast shareholders might also reject such an offer since the offer plus break-up fee plus Fox debt will take them to about $100 billion debt.

10% of a massive number is generally still a massive number. I can't imagine a reasonable businessperson or shareholder who would say "No, I don't want 10% more if it's only 10% of 70 billion.", provided the terms of a proposed deal are safe enough.

They might reject such an offer. But they might also have the patience to entertain the proposal in the first place. There's this idea here that the shareholders want to rush to get this deal done. But why would they, when they know the bidding is high, and there's a lot of money on the table?

Fox shareholders would be trading a sure thing and in many ways more attractive offer for a deal that could fall through and leave their investment worth less than half of what it would have been with the Disney deal.

Why would they be trading a sure thing, and why would it be worth less than half? Is Disney going to walk away if this drags out a bit longer? Is Comcast? I doubt it. These are prized assets.

It would be a foolish move unless Comcast goes a lot higher than that, and even a much higher bid would be questionable because it would be more likely to be rejected by Comcast shareholders.

What would be a foolish move?

I'm talking about being patient enough to entertain another offer, not saying what they should do from a business standpoint.

 

[MasterCat]

The wife of the President is not the 1st women ever, yet they call her the First Lady, correct? They can have that title by being media darlings, regardless when they arrive.

See, now, the conventional wisdom on this board is that the term "Mary Sue" is meaningless, but a character who barges into an established universe and becomes everyone's darling is the original definition. Them being treated better than everyone else for no reason like that would just make me want to see a Doctor Doom/Doctor Pym team-up where they take turns smashing Reed's face into a desk.

 

[MasterCat]

First Family can have an emotional pull to it because unlike the Avengers, they're more than just a team. They are that family.

The First Family is Henry, Janet and Hope (and Scott might marry Hope, bringing him and Cassie into the First Family). Second family is going to be formed by Tony and Pepper.
Let it go.

 

[The Guard]

You’ve just explained it in your 2nd sentence. $10B or some huge figure like that is the cost they will have to pay for testing the patience of Fox shareholders.

Because...

Have you bought/sold property often before? If you accept and progress significantly with a bid from one party, the longer it takes the other rival party to respond and counterbid, the more they will have to come up with. If they counterbid on exchange of contract day they will be seriously testing your patience unless the premium is absolutely huge.

Ok, so if Comcast comes up with "the more"...why wouldn't shareholders consider the offer?

This isn't a typical property deal. It's not a single family selling their home with a target date on when they have to move into a new home. This is a company unloading a legacy. These are very highly valued and highly sought after media assets. The level of care that will go into maximizing the potential of this deal will be commensurate with the value of the deal itself. This deal is likely not going to be scuttled on either end because it took a little longer than a seller would have liked. Not within reason. Fans want this done sooner so that we can see other heroes in the MCU sooner, but Fox owes it to its shareholders to get the best deal they can out of this.

On top of this, with complex company merger transactions, there is a large opportunity cost in the time taken to progress with a bid that doesn’t eventually proceed due to antitrust action. So a progressed bid that already has some levels of approval is only going to be put to the side in favour of a new bid which is on more shaky regulatory ground for a very large amount. Also why late bids on property are usually only entertained from cash buyers if they aren’t a lot higher. If you come in soon after the original bidder then the seller is much more open to just letting the highest bidder win. And if you are having to arrange finance or delay for some other reason unknown to the seller, it’s worth at least making a statement that you are intending to rebid as soon as those issues are resolved.

I get lost at the idea that a bid that is only $10 billion more will "only be put to the side".

If regulatory issues are perceived as that large an issue, do you really think Comcast would still be involved at this level?

Just because we are not privy to every detail of this bidding process does not mean there are not things going on behind the scenes, at least we certainly cannot assume this is the case. Comcast has good reason not to very publicly play its hand at this point in the process if they are still involved.

 

[DyfeddRex]

How do you guys feel about my idea of the Fantastic Four getting their powers from leftover radiation from the Infinity Stones instead of the Cosmic rays like it’s always been in the comics? Is that too much of a change?

A line from the Avengers comes back to me, on that... given we all want them squaring off against the next ultimate big bad...

"You can't protect yourself from yourself"... about the staff and the tesseract device...

Take that one step further for our first family, somehow, I think, they will intersect in their origin space travel with, instead of cosmic rays, a pocket or item containing the Power Cosmic... which would let them stand against Galactus, as their powers and his have the same source.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

10% of a massive number is generally still a massive number. I can't imagine a reasonable businessperson or shareholder who would say "No, I don't want 10% more if it's only 10% of 70 billion.", provided the terms of a proposed deal are safe enough.

They might reject such an offer. But they might also have the patience to entertain the proposal in the first place. There's this idea here that the shareholders want to rush to get this deal done. But why would they, when they know the bidding is high, and there's a lot of money on the table?



Why would they be trading a sure thing, and why would it be worth less than half? Is Disney going to walk away if this drags out a bit longer? Is Comcast? I doubt it. These are prized assets.



What would be a foolish move?

I'm talking about being patient enough to entertain another offer, not saying what they should do from a business standpoint.

Okay, let's put some real numbers on it. Imagine you're an investor who bought 10,000 shares of Fox 10 years ago at $10 a share.

Initial investment $100,000.

Now you can get $380,000 in Disney stock as a sure thing. In your pocket before the end of the year.

If Comcast bids $42.5 per share, you could theoretically, pocket $425,000 in cash.

But wait a minute. $325,000 of that is capital gains. If you have an income and live in a location that results in a 30% capital gains tax, that's $97,500 in capital gains taxes, so you're really only pocketing $327,500 in cash vs $380,000 in stock in a company that is moving into 2019 with a lot of content for their new streaming service and other assets they can leverage.

So take $380,000 in Disney stock guaranteed now, or $327,500 in cash... maybe in late 2019.

Oh, and by the way, the DOJ could have a problem or Comcast shareholders might reject it.

And by that time Disney likely would have moved on. They would have bought content elsewhere and they would no longer have any interest in Fox.

And since the value of Fox stock has risen to about twice its original value purely because of Disney and Comcast, that stock could fall back dramatically. Resulting in a huge loss.

Like I said, foolish.

Comcast would have to go a lot higher than that in a pure cash offer to get the attention of most investors.

 

[Detective Conan]

Here’s what we know.

- Disney bankers now suspect Comcast could bid for only part of Fox’s assets.

- Disney already beat Time Warner to the punch with their much shorter time it took for approval without needing a costy trial that would take months.

- Comcast shareholders are wary of Roberts bidding further for the Fox assets because of the gargantuan debt it could arise.

- Fox shareholders are still skeptical of Comcast’s chances of regulatory approval.

- Roberts, Murdoch, and Iger will all be there at a media conference(wishful thinking makes me say they might be there to discuss a compromise that will make everyone happy).

- Brian Roberts is open to splitting the assets and only really wants Fox’s international assets like Star India. But they would likely be content with just getting Sky.

And at the end of the day Disney is going to have to come up with a more less costly solution to the Comcast problem than simply trying to out-bid Comcast who might want to stymie the deal by forcing Disney to pay higher which is going to severely damage their balance sheets. Iger and Roberts are smart men who know how to play this game. They may hate each other’s guts but at the end of the day they’re grown men who only have their company’s best interest at heart. So I do expect some kind of back & forth next week.

 

[Big Bang]

Comcast signaling that they only intend to bid on the international assets is rather telling in itself. That would indicate that their quest to find any partners for a deal was probably unsuccessful.

This is bringing up intriguing possibilities. While Disney and Comcast cannot have direct communication with one another, if Comcast can convince Fox to work out a deal, then perhaps Fox can approach Disney. Otherwise, Comcast is left with trying to approach Disney after they close the Fox deal.

Whatever which way this rolls, Disney will come out on top and then some. If there is a deal to be had somewhere, you can bet it will involve Comcast giving up all the Marvel rights in their possession in some kind of transaction.