Okay, let's put some real numbers on it. Imagine you're an investor who bought 10,000 shares of Fox 10 years ago at $10 a share.
Initial investment $100,000.
Now you can get $380,000 in Disney stock as a sure thing. In your pocket before the end of the year.
If Comcast bids $42.5 per share, you could theoretically, pocket $425,000 in cash.
But wait a minute. $325,000 of that is capital gains. If you have an income and live in a location that results in a 30% capital gains tax, that's $97,500 in capital gains taxes, so you're really only pocketing $327,500 in cash vs $380,000 in stock in a company that is moving into 2019 with a lot of content for their new streaming service and other assets they can leverage.
So take $380,000 in Disney stock guaranteed now, or $327,500 in cash... maybe in late 2019.
Oh, and by the way, the DOJ could have a problem or Comcast shareholders might reject it.
And by that time Disney likely would have moved on. They would have bought content elsewhere and they would no longer have any interest in Fox.
And since the value of Fox stock has risen to about twice its original value purely because of Disney and Comcast, that stock could fall back dramatically. Resulting in a huge loss.
Like I said, foolish.
Comcast would have to go a lot higher than that in a pure cash offer to get the attention of most investors.