The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

[Willie Lumpkin]

I mean this a serious and non-snarky way, but who is left of that built in audience? I used to be one of them. I was a pretty ardent Fox-Men defender and I've watched every Fox X-Men related movie in theaters, but I personally have little to no real interest in this movie for a myriad of reasons. I think 400 million WW might be the ceiling for Dark Phoenix.

My wife.

I'm sure she will want to see it, but she doesn't pay much attention, so if I don't say: "Dark Phoenix is opening this weekend", she won't notice.

 

[Endeavor]

It's crazy to even see Mystique having on a X-men costume. Was she ever an X-men in the comics? I don't think she was. This is that Jennifer Lawrence fatigue that people was talking about.

Sort of.
She was in X-Factor for a run. But it was forced upon her (and Sabretooth) to make them pay for their crimes with civic service. And even then she was always scheming and doing things for her own benefit. She never stopped being good old Mystique.

 

[Smurphftw]

My wife.

I'm sure she will want to see it, but she doesn't pay much attention, so if I don't say: "Dark Phoenix is opening this weekend", she won't notice.

That's an excellent example of how enthuiasts drive sales. If I was really excited to see Dark Phoenix I know I could convince my wife and my buddy to check it out with me, but since I'm not interested none of us will be going.

 

[Smurphftw]

Nothing wrong with 400 million. I think that's about where it'll end up. The audience is still there, Apocalypse still made close to 550 million. Sure, a lot of people have lost interest, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens

That's fair. I also think the meme around how it will "damage the brand" is largely overblown.

 

[ADollarADay]

I mean this a serious and non-snarky way, but who is left of that built in audience? I used to be one of them. I was a pretty ardent Fox-Men defender and I've watched every Fox X-Men related movie in theaters, but I personally have little to no real interest in this movie for a myriad of reasons. I think 400 million WW might be the ceiling for Dark Phoenix.

Undoubtedly true, but a sad fact. In this day and age, X-Men assemble movies should have a floor of 1B IMO. FF movies should flirt with 1B and hit GoTG numbers at the very least.

That's why I think Feige and co will start teasing XM and FF through cameos and Disney+ first to build up hype and then finally release a movie in 2023 or so. They already got the slate pretty much set until 2022 and they don't have to rush it like they did Spiderman.

 

[Rorschach2012]

that trailer was boring AF... Doesn't hold up with what the other studios are pushing out.

 

[Web-Head]

That's fair. I also think the meme around how it will "damage the brand" is largely overblown.

That's my biggest thing. If nobody is going to see it then how can it "damage the brand"? The whole "Just release it to Hulu" thing is a bit ridiculous

 

[Dark Raven]

My wife.

I'm sure she will want to see it, but she doesn't pay much attention, so if I don't say: "Dark Phoenix is opening this weekend", she won't notice.

Are you planning to go if your wife asks you to go and see it with her? Will a lot of the audience be like that, with people going along just because someone else asked them to, even if they're not fans?

What if, by some miracle, this film became as successful as Venom? Would the general audience wonder why such a successful film doesn't have a follow up and the film series is cancelled? What will everyone not following the takeover think?

 

[Endeavor]

That's my biggest thing. If nobody is going to see it then how can it "damage the brand"? The whole "Just release it to Hulu" thing is a bit ridiculous

Fan4stic

Dismal BOX office.

Don't you think it's poisoned the Fantastic 4 name?

 

[Web-Head]

Fan4stic

Dismal BOX office.

Don't you think it's poisoned the Fantastic 4 name?

Nope. The minute we see the Fantastic 4 interact with other characters in the MCU, all will be forgotten. The minute the trailer drops for a Fantastic 4 MCU movie, all will be forgotten. "Oh, look the Fantastic 4 are apart of the Avengers now. I'll have to see that."

Silver Surfer didn't even make 300million, so it's not like Fan4stic was all of a sudden going to go gangbusters and make 700 million at the BO

 

[Endeavor]

Nope. The minute we see the Fantastic 4 interact with other characters in the MCU, all will be forgotten. The minute the trailer drops for a Fantastic 4 MCU movie, all will be forgotten. "Oh, look the Fantastic 4 are apart of the Avengers now. I'll have to see that."

Silver Surfer didn't even make 300million, so it's not like Fan4stic was all of a sudden going to go gangbusters and make 700 million at the BO

That's an assumption. And I dare say it only applies to audience like us, who was going to be relived to just have them back home. But, as much as we like to think otherwise, we are not the bulk of the business they make... We don't know how the F4 will fare in the Box Office once Marvel gets around to them, Even despite of the best marketing available, they might still under perform. At the very least I can guarantee the movie will make less than it otherwise would have, had the Trank Travesty been vaulted.
We've already seen it happen with Spidey.
Homecoming performed very well, but it would've done even better had Amazing 2 never happened.
Feige and company have an uphill battle to make the 4 a success, and it's going to be harder because of the mess that came before.

 

[Web-Head]

That's an assumption. And I dare say it only applies to audience like us, who was going to be relived to just have them back home. But, as much as we like to think otherwise, we are not the bulk of the business they make... We don't know how the F4 will fare in the Box Office once Marvel gets around to them, Even despite of the best marketing available, they might still under perform. At the very least I can guarantee the movie will make less than it otherwise would have, had the Trank Travesty been vaulted.
We've already seen it happen with Spidey.
Homecoming performed very well, but it would've done even better had Amazing 2 never happened.
Feige and company have an uphill battle to make the 4 a success, and it's going to be harder because of the mess that came before.

Not really. Sure, they might have to introduce a couple of the characters prior to them getting a solo film. I can't see how you can say Homecoming underperformed when it still made close to 900 million. I doubt the general audience even really remembers Fan4stic anyway.

 

[ADollarADay]

That's an assumption. And I dare say it only applies to audience like us, who was going to be relived to just have them back home. But, as much as we like to think otherwise, we are not the bulk of the business they make... We don't know how the F4 will fare in the Box Office once Marvel gets around to them, Even despite of the best marketing available, they might still under perform. At the very least I can guarantee the movie will make less than it otherwise would have, had the Trank Travesty been vaulted.
We've already seen it happen with Spidey.
Homecoming performed very well, but it would've done even better had Amazing 2 never happened.
Feige and company have an uphill battle to make the 4 a success, and it's going to be harder because of the mess that came before.

Anecdotal, but some of my friends and family members were like "SM? Another one? The last one with Jamie Foxx sucked!" the week or or a big after Homecoming was out. Feige knows and understands this. I remember an interview of his where he mentioned the GA not knowing what's Marvel and what's DC. And it's 100% true.

Make no mistake about it, brands can and are damaged all the time. I would rather have no DP or NW releasing at all, but if you're gonna release it then dumping it on Hulu is the best option. It takes a lot more effort to restore goodwill among consumers after some garbage products are released. Ask anyone in Products and Market and they will confirm.

That's why I think they will go the long route with FF and XM, slowly introducing them in other films and with D+ series before finally dropping a movie in 4-5+ years when people are thirsty.

 

[Marvel united]

Anecdotal, but some of my friends and family members were like "SM? Another one? The last one with Jamie Foxx sucked!" the week or or a big after Homecoming was out. Feige knows and understands this. I remember an interview of his where he mentioned the GA not knowing what's Marvel and what's DC. And it's 100% true.

Make no mistake about it, brands can and are damaged all the time. I would rather have no DP or NW releasing at all, but if you're gonna release it then dumping it on Hulu is the best option. It takes a lot more effort to restore goodwill among consumers after some garbage products are released. Ask anyone in Products and Market and they will confirm.

That's why I think they will go the long route with FF and XM, slowly introducing them in other films and with D+ series before finally dropping a movie in 4-5+ years when people are thirsty.

This is why Dark Phoenix must not come out in theaters. There is too much at stake and I hope the deal closes soon enough for Disney to legally be able to take action. I do feel kinda bad for Kinberg because I feel like he was genuinely trying to make a good movie but he's failed otherwise we wouldn't have heard all of the BTS structural problems going on with the movie.

Also, I disagree about them waiting 5 years. I think if they can introduce Spider-Man only 2 years after TASM2 underperformed and critically bombed, it shouldn't need to take half a decade to bring the X-Men back to the big screen.

And come early 2020s, Trank's F4 movie will be 5-7 years in the past. That's long enough to greenlit a new movie

 

[Darkprime]

If the deal closes next week can Disney dump it on Hulu or Netflix? Or are they obligated to release it?

 

[Web-Head]

If the deal closes next week can Disney dump it on Hulu or Netflix? Or are they obligated to release it?

Release it on Hulu and take the hit, or actually put it in theaters and at least make a little bit of money. Yeah...great idea

 

[ADollarADay]

This is why Dark Phoenix must not come out in theaters. There is too much at stake and I hope the deal closes soon enough for Disney to legally be able to take action. I do feel kinda bad for Kinberg because I feel like he was genuinely trying to make a good movie but he's failed otherwise we wouldn't have heard all of the BTS structural problems going on with the movie.

Also, I disagree about them waiting 5 years. I think if they can introduce Spider-Man only 2 years after TASM2 underperformed and critically bombed, it shouldn't need to take half a decade to bring the X-Men back to the big screen.

And come early 2020s, Trank's F4 movie will be 5-7 years in the past. That's long enough to greenlit a new movie

2020 is 100% not happening, the slate is set there and even if they were to use some scripts already in development (i.e. Dr. Doom) it would have to go through iterations before it can be in a good state. Same goes for 2021 to a lesser extent (i.e. 2021 is likely Black Panther 2, Dr. Strange 2, and Guardians 3/Shang Chi). 2022 is not as set, but you have Captain Marvel 2, Shang Chi/Captain Marvel 3, and probably something else they already planned for, maybe Ant Man 3).

They can take their time with this and I hope they don't rush it. You can start seeing the characters before hand, but I think 2023 is the earliest you can see them, but Feige is a smarter man than me so we'll see.

If the deal closes next week can Disney dump it on Hulu or Netflix? Or are they obligated to release it?

No one knows unless they see contracts, but I don't think they are. Mowgli and Cloverfield did very well by releasing on Netflix. Those were sure bombas and not good products. And I love Andy Serkis.

Release it on Hulu and take the hit, or actually put it in theaters and at least make a little bit of money. Yeah...great idea

Sunk costs. Read up on it.

 

[Marvel united]

Release it on Hulu and take the hit, or actually put it in theaters and at least make a little bit of money. Yeah...great idea

And destroy the longterm viability of the brand? Yes, it absolutely does make sense to save the property for Feige and co. Otherwise the X-Men will become as damaged as the F4 and unlike F4, their rot will be fresh in people's mind. Trank's movie was almost 5 years ago and hardly anybody besides CBM community remembers it

 

[Zarex]

I disagree that a Dark Phoenix theatrical release will do anything to damage the X-Men franchise as it transitions to the MCU. Outside of Slipknot, Selene and Simon Kinberg Original Character played by Jessica Chastain, Fox has been giving us basically the same crew since 2011. There's no new ground being tread that will hinder Feige's plans going forward.

We're going to get lots of Mags and Chuck (I can't imagine an X-Men story not starring those two!) and a female superhero who gains amazing powers and - unlike the fellas - simply can't deal! The film will be forgotten quickly after its release, and hopefully will mark the retirement of the wildly dated Dark Phoenix storyline.

 

[Marvel united]

2020 is 100% not happening, the slate is set there and even if they were to use some scripts already in development (i.e. Dr. Doom) it would have to go through iterations before it can be in a good state. Same goes for 2021 to a lesser extent (i.e. 2021 is likely Black Panther 2, Dr. Strange 2, and Guardians 3/Shang Chi). 2022 is not as set, but you have Captain Marvel 2, Shang Chi/Captain Marvel 3, and probably something else they already planned for, maybe Ant Man 3).

They can take their time with this and I hope they don't rush it. You can start seeing the characters before hand, but I think 2023 is the earliest you can see them, but Feige is a smarter man than me so we'll see.



No one knows unless they see contracts, but I don't think they are. Mowgli and Cloverfield did very well by releasing on Netflix. Those were sure bombas and not good products. And I love Andy Serkis.



Sunk costs. Read up on it.

All of the post-2020 films can be shuffled around to make room. Yes, the deal will close before any of the 2021 films are set in stone. Marvel added Homecoming to their slate and later on added Ant-Man and the Wasp. They've shown that they can be flexible and adjust accordingly. There's also an argument to be made that these newer properties are being made out of necessity, it's not hard to imagine something like a possible Black Knight movie being pushed back to make room for F4 or X-Men

 

[Web-Head]

2020 is 100% not happening, the slate is set there and even if they were to use some scripts already in development (i.e. Dr. Doom) it would have to go through iterations before it can be in a good state. Same goes for 2021 to a lesser extent (i.e. 2021 is likely Black Panther 2, Dr. Strange 2, and Guardians 3/Shang Chi). 2022 is not as set, but you have Captain Marvel 2, Shang Chi/Captain Marvel 3, and probably something else they already planned for, maybe Ant Man 3).

They can take their time with this and I hope they don't rush it. You can start seeing the characters before hand, but I think 2023 is the earliest you can see them, but Feige is a smarter man than me so we'll see.

Exactly. You could easily introduce Reed or Sue in Ant-Man 3 or find a reason for them to be in the Captain Marvel sequel. Set them up and don't rush it.

And destroy the longterm viability of the brand? Yes, it absolutely does make sense to save the property for Feige and co. Otherwise the X-Men will become as damaged as the F4 and unlike F4, their rot will be fresh in people's mind. Trank's movie was almost 5 years ago and hardly anybody besides CBM community remembers it

Well, I guarantee it's not getting released to Netflix or Hulu. The constant notion that it HAS to be is ludicrous.

 

[ADollarADay]

All of the post-2020 films can be shuffled around to make room. Yes, the deal will close before any of the 2021 films are set in stone. Marvel added Homecoming to their slate and later on added Ant-Man and the Wasp. They've shown that they can be flexible and adjust accordingly. There's also an argument to be made that these newer properties are being made out of necessity, it's not hard to imagine something like a possible Black Knight movie being pushed back to make room for F4 or X-Men

I fell they had to rush SM because they were dependent on the licensee. I was rewatching CW the other day and it shows how shoehorned in Spidey was. That was actually a criticism at the time IIRC.

I would rather they took their time with FF and XM.

Exactly. You could easily introduce Reed or Sue in Ant-Man 3 or find a reason for them to be in the Captain Marvel sequel. Set them up and don't rush it.

Yep.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Are you planning to go if your wife asks you to go and see it with her? Will a lot of the audience be like that, with people going along just because someone else asked them to, even if they're not fans?

In my specific case, if she is all ready to go, I'll just suggest we go to her favorite wine store and see what vineyards are visiting that day. When given the choice of wine, she'll forget all about it.

... but in the case of someone who's not as uninterested and not as big a jerk as me, I could imagine them going along.

 

[Marvel united]

I fell they had to rush SM because they were dependent on the licensee. I was rewatching CW the other day and it shows how shoehorned in Spidey was. That was actually a criticism at the time IIRC.

I would rather they took their time with FF and XM.



Yep.

Well, it turned out pretty well. I just have a hard time seeing Feige wanting to wait that long before he starts introducing these characters. Reed and Sue can easily be introduced in 2020. Wolverine will probably be introduced first but I'd at least want the X-Men to be introduced as a team in someone else's movie, even if they don't get their own movie.

Exactly. You could easily introduce Reed or Sue in Ant-Man 3 or find a reason for them to be in the Captain Marvel sequel. Set them up and don't rush it.



Well, I guarantee it's not getting released to Netflix or Hulu. The constant notion that it HAS to be is ludicrous.

Less that it HAS to be and more that it SHOULD. That's the best case scenario for everybody involved. Fox fans get to see the conclusion to their franchise, Disney saves the brand's image and gets an exclusive for Hulu/their streaming service and Feige's plans for the property aren't potentially impeded by this movie's failure. Win-win for everybody.

 

[Smurphftw]

In my specific case, if she is all ready to go, I'll just suggest we go to her favorite wine store and see what vineyards are visiting that day. When given the choice of wine, she'll forget all about it.

... but in the case of someone who's not as uninterested and not as big a jerk as me, I could imagine them going along.

A reverse example of that for me would be "Glass". My wife was keen to see it so I went along with her.

However when she asked if I wanted to see Venom my response was "hard pass".

I guess the moral of the story is an enthusiast can convince who is on the fence but not someone who is dead set against something.