The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

[ADollarADay]

Reminder that the Sky bid continues today at 12PM EST. Fox/Disney will have their bid up at that time. It'll end tomorrow evening. The winning bid will be made public by 09/27.

Comcast is the most likely winner in an auction scenario, according to a Bloomberg survey of 17 M&A and event-driven trading desks. On average, the traders bet a winning bid will come in at about 16.53 pounds per share.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-for-sky-could-be-resolved-in-one-day-auction

Disney would ideally like to win this as otherwise they would have to try to break into that market with Hulu, DisneyPlay, and ESPN. All of which are non existent there. It'll be an uphill climb. Regardless though, they'll make out well as I think they'll bid 15 pounds/share, Comcast comes back with 16 pounds per share, final bid Disney goes up or matches and Comcast goes up to 17 pounds/share or so.

That drives up that 39% of Sky quite nicely and it does indeed set up the scenario for an asset swap of 30% of Hulu + the marvel rights. That said I wouldn't expect Marvel theme park rights in Orlando to swap overnight. Most likely scenario in this situation would be the contract gets amended with an end date (say 10 years from now), removal of exclusivity in Orlando (so both parks can use it during that period, and removal of exclusivity of the word Marvel.

Either way it's a win win for Disney.

For fans:

If you are a Disney investor and want to make money, you want Disney to win this (at a reasonable price).
If you are a Marvel fan and want everything under one roof, you want Comcast to win this and an asset swap to take place (i.e. 39% of Sky for 30% of Hulu + marvel rights (theme park and movie) + cash).

Then they can make DD a Hulk-esque character. Showing up in other people's movies

You don't need to worry. There's no evidence suggesting they can't use the characters in their own MCU show or movie. Disney could not have signed away Kingpin in 2013 even if they wanted to.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If you are a Marvel fan and want everything under one roof, you want Comcast to win this and an asset swap to take place (i.e. 39% of Sky for 30% of Hulu + marvel rights (theme park and movie) + cash).

Also, as a fan, I think the EU approval is easier if Comcast gets Sky and more likely to be a "Yes" in mid-October as opposed to a "Maybe" or "Under these conditions".

 

[ADollarADay]

Regarding Venom, that weekend also has the most hyped up fight happening in the past few years. McGregor - Khabib is already sold out. More people watched this press conference than any of the press conferences for Mayweather - McGregor.



Youtube alone had over 500K people watching the press conference and it's all everyone is talking about right now. This fight is gonna be big. I'm hyped for it. It may not have that big of an impact, but it might impact other entertainment options that weekend.

Also, as a fan, I think the EU approval is easier if Comcast gets Sky and more likely to be a "Yes" in mid-October as opposed to a "Maybe" or "Under these conditions".

Good point, yes. This too.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Also, as a fan, I think the EU approval is easier if Comcast gets Sky and more likely to be a "Yes" in mid-October as opposed to a "Maybe" or "Under these conditions".

Very salient point, Willie. I was losing what very little interest I had in the whole Sky thing, but this and the aspect that you quoted definitely heighten my investment.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Y'all may be being generous with Venom's RT score. If SS and BVS got 27/28, I have a hard time seeing this do much better than that. At the same time, critics don't seem to dislike the Sony Spidey-esque films as much as the fans do. Spidey 3 did mixed with critics and is fresh on RT, TASM is certified fresh and even though TASM 2 is rotten with 52% it is still much higher than it should be.

Eh, I think those are about right. TASM2 and SM3 both have moments where things are decent. I would watch specific scenes from them. And compared to the pantheon of truly horrible superhero films, I would put them in the upper tier of those. They’re still not good, but they’re not Batman and Robin, or any of the Ghostriders, or the 90’s Cap film where he has rubber ears etc

 

[HunBoy]

Marvel’s ‘The Eternals’ Taps ‘The Rider’ Director Chloe Zhao

 

[Darkprime]

I hope Disney let Comcast get Sky. Dont get over confident. As much as Disney getting Sky would be awesome being able to get agents of shield and other disney releases on day and date release in my region. its not worth risking EU approval.

 

[Dark Raven]

I think Comcast should have Sky too. Then hopefully they'll be able to trade for other stuff including all the Universal rights and theme park rights. Plus if it means EU approval quicker if Disney forgo Sky, that's even better. We don't want delays.

Has Brazil definitely approved? Is that official? After the EU, who is left? China?

 

[WeaponXCII]

Marvel’s ‘The Eternals’ Taps ‘The Rider’ Director Chloe Zhao

We just got a lot closer to the Children of the Atom, folks!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think Comcast should have Sky too. Then hopefully they'll be able to trade for other stuff including all the Universal rights and theme park rights. Plus if it means EU approval quicker if Disney forgo Sky, that's even better. We don't want delays.

Has Brazil definitely approved? Is that official? After the EU, who is left? China?

I think China is the big, and potentially complicated one. Hopefully we'll get good news on Europe in October, and then we should be getting a conference call in November. By that point hopefully things will be pretty clear,

 

[SyntaxError]

Nah, I hope Disney gets Sky. Very important for regional presence.

 

[Cobalt Panther]

Comcast Triumphs Over Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox In $39B Sky Deal

The Hollywood studio has paid $39B for Sky, a move that saw Comcast CEO Brian Roberts finally outmanoeuvre Disney boss Bob Iger, who was backing the Fox bid.

The move came after a rather unusual blind auction, lead by Britain’s Takeover Panel, after neither Fox or Comcast made a “best and final” offer for the Patrick Melrose co-producer. Deadline understands that the bidding for Sky officially kicked around midday in the UK and the winning bid came after the auction entered its third and final bidding round.

Comcast has paid £17.28 per share, compared to Fox’s blind bid of £15.67.

Source: Comcast Triumphs Over Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox In $39B Sky Deal

It will be interesting to see just what happens next. With the share of Sky Fox/Disney own already, they still have a lot of leverage to make some favourable deals.

 

[Detective Conan]

As expected.

Disney doesn’t need Sky, imo. They have enough going for it already with Fox alone. Sure, Sky gives Disney a stronger international presence but nothing better that could be achieved with what they will be getting with Star India which gives them a strong foothold in one of the biggest international markets in the world.

Disney gets Fox, and Comcast gets Sky. As a certain purple alien would say, “Perfectly balanced like everything should be.” It’s better this way.

 

[Marvel united]

As expected.

Disney doesn’t need Sky, imo. They have enough going for it already with Fox alone. Sure, Sky gives Disney a stronger international presence but nothing better that could be achieved with What they will be getting with Star India which gives them a foothold on one of the biggest international markets in the world.

Disney gets Fox, and Comcast gets Sky. As a certain purple alien would “Perfectly balanced like everything should be.” It’s fine this way.

Agreed. Now bring Hulk and Namor home, Bob. Bring 'em home.

 

[Darkprime]

Fox was only bidding on Disneys behalf anyway. Hopefully comcast winning speeds up EU approval.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Comcast Triumphs Over Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox In $39B Sky Deal



Source: Comcast Triumphs Over Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox In $39B Sky Deal

It will be interesting to see just what happens next. With the share of Sky Fox/Disney own already, they still have a lot of leverage to make some favourable deals.

Time to make Comcast an offer they can't refuse, Mr. Iger!

 

[JeetKuneDo]

The thought that Kevin Feige who has put characters above everything else since the beginning of he MCU would somehow inherit and incorporate a franchise whose major flaw is the misuse of the majority of its characters was always very entertaining...

I'm pretty shocked it was even a dispute. Why in the world would Marvel keep the X-men and FF separate?

-------------------

As for DD, Marvel should just be bold like they've been for 10 years. The same attitude that made Rocket, Groot, and Ant-Man famous should also say: "Yeah....we'll have DD on Netflix to remain awesome there and STILL use him in movies as we see fit. Come at me, bro!"

Marvel hasn't played by these fake "rules" before. They wrote new ones. That's why the MCU exists. There is no rule that requires DD to be "either TV or movies". That's a fake rule. DD can show up anywhere he's needed.

 

[Detective Conan]

It’s weird that I’ve gone from rooting for Disney to win against Comcast in a bidding war to rooting for Comcast to win against Disney in a bidding war, lol.

 

[Art Freak]

Agreed! And I’ve said it before, it’s NOT all connected. Feige doesn’t give an Iron Fist about Jeph Loeb’s world. He’ll use the characters when he wants and with different actors. A precedent will be set eventually. But you won’t see any of the TV actors in the movies. It’s been a one-way street. A Star Wars Legacy situation. Concurrent Daredevils would be a win-win.

 

[Marvel united]

Daredevil and the Netflix shows are probably going to be completely cut off from the MCU in the coming years. And when Feige wants, he'll reboot Daredevil and those characters as supporting characters in the MCU

Fox was only bidding on Disneys behalf anyway. Hopefully comcast winning speeds up EU approval.

This another positive side to Comcast winning

 

[Art Freak]

Again, I’d argue they were never really in the MCU.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Agreed! And I’ve said it before, it’s NOT all connected. Feige doesn’t give an Iron Fist about Jeph Loeb’s world. He’ll use the characters when he wants and with different actors. A precedent will be set eventually. But you won’t see any of the TV actors in the movies. It’s been a one-way street. A Star Wars Legacy situation. Concurrent Daredevils would be a win-win.

I don't see why they should recast. That's a weakness with the Flash imo. Use the same guy everywhere.

 

[Marvel united]

Again, I’d argue they were never really in the MCU.

That's what Loeb and Marvel TV were saying at the beginning. But after IW and the Netflix shows ignoring the snap, its become more and more apparent that this isn't exactly true. And Disney Play making in-house Marvel shows is the final nail in the coffin for the Netflix connectivity.

Netflix could become the next Fox since they can keep using Marvel's characters as long as they want.

 

[ADollarADay]

Disney's bid of 15.67 suggests they were baiting Comcast to overbid. I think both companies are probably happy with the outcome today.

On paper, this sets up a possible asset swap.

Comcast gets:
- 39% of Sky (valued at 15.1B given 17.28 bid)
- A couple of RSNs that Comcast has shown interest in (each RSN is close to at least 1B in value, some significantly higher like YES)

Disney gets:
- 30% of Hulu (valued at 2.4B as per the latest Disney SEC filings regarding the Fox acquisition)
- Outstanding Marvel rights (Namor, Hulk, Theme park rights in Orlando, usage of Marvel name in theme parks)
- Distribution to Disney movies in EU that Sky currently has the rights to
- Cash

The main problem here is what is the cash amount that both parties would agree to.

I honestly don't think Disney values theme park rights in Orlando, Marvel name for theme parks, and Namor + Hulk movie rights all that much. It's a nice cherry on top and that's it. Not sure how much they value the distribution rights that Sky has for Disney movies and when those expire, but I'm guessing it's not that valuable either. The one thing that they'd value here is Hulu 30%.

This also means Disney will have an uphill battle in Europe as they'll have to enter their DTC market there with Hulu, DisneyPlay, and ESPN+. None of those exist or a known there. It'll take a lot of capital and work to gain a foothold there.

One final note on theme park in Orlando. If both sides do agree to a deal the most likely scenario will be an amendment to the contract with an expiration date and removal of exclusivity. Marvel land at IoA won't close overnight. They'll probably have the contract expire in 10-15 years and during that time both parties can use the Marvel characters (Disney would use the MCU ones whereas Universal would keep with what they have). Universal would probably want to get out sooner though.

 

[Darkprime]

The only mcu netflix actors id want to see crossover is charlie cox and vincent d'onofrio. Charlie is the only one I could see stand next to Chris Evans and Downey Jr and not look out of place and Vincent needs to appear as kingpin in a spidey film down the line.