The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

[Zarex]

Such a deal would go against what we heard. Apple wants no sex, alcohol, smoke, violence on their service. They want a family oriented streaming solution like DisneyPlay. There's no benefit from either Disney or Apple on this deal.

Apple doesn't want any of that on an Apple branded service. But Mr. Cook may be more flexible if they were partnering with a long time ally on an established service. And what are the changes of "Expensive NBC", as it is called in the article, actually taking off? Disney has the advantage of having a treasure trove of family entertainment, established all-ages franchises and an enormous following. Folks love Apple products, but are they are going to subscribe to apple programming on name alone? Doubtful. Unless this is a freebie like Amazon Prime Video, the outlook is grim.

The benefits for Disney is that a deal allows the Mouse to focus its efforts on Disney Play, which unlike Hulu has the Glengarry Leads. They get cash to pay down debt service, reduce their exposure to continuing Hulu losses, and add a deep pocketed partner in Apple that will have an easier time cutting deals with other studios. Apple removes the risk of adding another streaming option in a sea of streaming options while adding a content rich partner in the Mouse.

I wouldn't be surprised is Disney does SOMETHING with Hulu. Buying out the Comcast and AT&T ownership stakes and trying to make a go of it alone without their product seems like a bad choice, especially since almost all the "must watch" stuff is going on the Disney branded service. I wouldn't be surprised if Iger does something unexpected with the service after the deal closes.

 

[ADollarADay]

Apple doesn't want any of that on an Apple branded service. But Mr. Cook may be more flexible if they were partnering with a long time ally on an established service. And what are the changes of "Expensive NBC", as it is called in the article, actually taking off? Disney has the advantage of having a treasure trove of family entertainment, established all-ages franchises and an enormous following. Folks love Apple products, but are they are going to subscribe to apple programming on name alone? Doubtful. Unless this is a freebie like Amazon Prime Video, the outlook is grim.

The benefits for Disney is that a deal allows the Mouse to focus its efforts on Disney Play, which unlike Hulu has the Glengarry Leads. They get cash to pay down debt service, reduce their exposure to continuing Hulu losses, and add a deep pocketed partner in Apple that will have an easier time cutting deals with other studios. Apple removes the risk of adding another streaming option in a sea of streaming options while adding a content rich partner in the Mouse.

I wouldn't be surprised is Disney does SOMETHING with Hulu. Buying out the Comcast and AT&T ownership stakes and trying to make a go of it alone without their product seems like a bad choice, especially since almost all the "must watch" stuff is going on the Disney branded service. I wouldn't be surprised if Iger does something unexpected with the service after the deal closes.

We have seen nothing to indicate that's even close to being on the table, but weirder things have happened. Also there's a lot of assumptions on your part regarding what Apple's board and CEO wants to do, when they have been clear on it.

I disagree with your assessment and I think Hulu has tremendous upside. They'll need a place to put hard PG-13 and R rated Fox and Marvel content. And they can always license more mature content. Iger has already said he's open to licensing for DisneyPlay and ESPN+, so the same would ring true for Hulu. It can be an all in one package that includes DisneyPlay and ESPN+, but you can get just a part if that's all you want. Iger has been clear about this as well.

I heard the opposite of the argument you're making (i.e. keep Hulu and put it all there since it's already an established and proven framework with 20MM subscribers). There are opinions and fair points being brought up from all sides of the aisle.

I'm just going by what the CEO of DIS and AAPL are saying though.

 

[Zarex]

You are correct, but plans change. A few months back Sky was a crown jewel of the Fox buyout and its now it's on Brian Robert's head. Unlike you, I am not optimistic about Hulu's future as it's competition increases and it transitions from four content rich owners to (maybe) one. Getting Apple involved as an ally while reducing that competition seems like a solid option, but we shall see.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That said there's at least a 50/50 chance the deal will include outstanding rights such as the Marvel ones.

Any type of deal could shake the rights loose. Once they sit down at the table and start thinking about who wants what, the rights will naturally come up, because Disney wants them and Comcast has very little use for them (other than as a bargaining chip).

Neither side may care enough to go through the trouble of meeting just to discuss the rights, but once they're at the table, I can't imagine Disney walking away without at least getting the full rights to Hulk and Namor.

 

[ADollarADay]

You are correct, but plans change. A few months back Sky was a crown jewel of the Fox buyout and its now it's on Brian Robert's head. Unlike you, I am not optimistic about Hulu's future as it's competition increases and it transitions from four content rich owners to (maybe) one. Getting Apple involved as an ally while reducing that competition seems like a solid option, but we shall see.

Sky was the crow jewel at ~10 pounds per share. At ~17 pounds be share it is not anymore. Nothing changed in that aspect and Disney won by losing as they'd be way overleveraged. They could actually get Fox, 90% of Hulu, and all the Marvel rights and deleverage even before the end of FY 21 which would be amazing.

Iger has said multiple times the company is very bullish on Hulu. You wishing for Apple to be involved - at this point - is just that, a wish. Nothing has indicated that.

Any type of deal could shake the rights loose. Once they sit down at the table and start thinking about who wants what, the rights will naturally come up, because Disney wants them and Comcast has very little use for them (other than as a bargaining chip).

Neither side may care enough to go through the trouble of meeting just to discuss the rights, but once they're at the table, I can't imagine Disney walking away without at least getting the full rights to Hulk and Namor.

I don't disagree. Some people will say it's fanboyish to say anything about the Marvel rights, but if they are sitting down to talk this then Disney will want those - including theme park rights - and the Sky distribution of their and Fox movies. Comcast will play hardball but they want that 39% plus outstanding Dreamworks rights. If a deal happens, then I think all those webs are going to get untangled. It's also possible that no deal happens though.

Say for example Fox by way of Disney goes to the table and says allright, we'll sell the 39.14% at fair market value of 17.28 pounds per share, or ~15.2B. We'll also throw in the VOD distribution rights that we own for Dreamworks that we value at 20MM. In exchange we want to buy the 30% of Hulu at fair market value of 2.8B, let's call it 3B. We also want the Marvel theme park rights to Orlando that we value at 100MM, the namor and hulk movie rights that we value at 20MM, and the Sky distribution rights to Fox and Disney movies that we value at 50M. Therefore we'll give you a total of 3.5B for all of that. Comcast then comes back and says, naw, 30% of Hulu is worth 7.5B because Hulu has 20MM subscribers. Netflix has 120MM subscribers and is worth 160B therefore Hulu is worth 1/6 of Netflix and 30% of that is 7.5B. The theme park rights are worth 2B. All those movie rights + Sky rights is another 1B, so we pay you 15B, you pay us 10.5B and we're good.

Then both parties walk away and no deal was reached.

EDIT: And Disney may not want to own 90% of Hulu, who is still a money loser.

 

[Zarex]

Iger has said multiple times the company is very bullish on Hulu. You wishing for Apple to be involved - at this point - is just that, a wish. Nothing has indicated that.

I'm not wishing for anything. Just speculating. AT&T has both HBO Go & DC Universe and CBS has both Showtime & All Access. But while it is entirely possible Disney will be able to properly fund two streaming services, I have my doubts given the expense of running both Hulu and Disney Play. We shall see.

 

[Dark Raven]

Sky was the crow jewel at ~10 pounds per share.

 

[Smurphftw]

That is some top tier dank memeage there, and just the type of high caliber response that I would expect from you. Well played indeed.

 

[Fallen]

Dark Phoenix trailer in 3 days...?

 

[Fallen]

Imagine the mess if the movie is delayed again.

 

[Darkprime]

Imagine the mess if the movie is delayed again.

At that point I feel like Disney would be better of just cutting its losses and cancelling it.

 

[WeaponXCII]

I wouldn't doubt that the announcement is that the movie is going straight to Netflix.

 

[Darkprime]

Saw this on the front page. Set Photo from X-Men: Dark Phoenix Reveals a Familiar Game

 

[ADollarADay]

Comcast has bought 30% of Sky's outstanding shares.

Comcast Buys Up 30% Of Sky Shares & Hopes To Close Takeover By End Of October

I do have to wonder if Fox tenders their share or if Disney (or Fox) acquires 30% of Hulu from Comcast how that would work and affect the acquisition process. The DOJ approved under those specific conditions.

 

[ImSGirl95]

So, how does this all affect the Fox-Disney deal?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

So, how does this all affect the Fox-Disney deal?

The only impact I can imagine is it makes European approval a little cleaner. If Fox had won the Sky bid, that would have given them a larger European footprint and complicated things.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Has anyone seen the leaked Dark Phoenix trailer? Check it out now, before it gets taken down. I don't want to post a link, but you should be able to find it.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If the trailer disappears, it's pretty much exactly what anyone should expect. Looks like an X-Men movie. Nothing particularly cool, unique or exciting. Anybody who wants to like it can find something to like. Anybody who wants to hate it can find something to hate.

No Skrulls, cool uniforms, cool uses of powers or any other visuals that would excite anybody who doesn't already want to be excited.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Yeah, I saw it, Willie. Looks pretty standard for a Fox-Men flick. Not expecting great things from it. I saw a version with audio that had The end by The Doors- that song never sounded better!

 

[Iceman]

Comcast has bought 30% of Sky's outstanding shares.

Comcast Buys Up 30% Of Sky Shares & Hopes To Close Takeover By End Of October

I do have to wonder if Fox tenders their share or if Disney (or Fox) acquires 30% of Hulu from Comcast how that would work and affect the acquisition process. The DOJ approved under those specific conditions.

The whole things is working out like I wanted with Disney getting Fox and Comcast getting Sky (better hands than the new division of Fox).

 

[Spider-Fan]

I will wait for an official one. Hypothetically if I were looking for this, I would have been having issues with audio

 

[ADollarADay]

The only impact I can imagine is it makes European approval a little cleaner. If Fox had won the Sky bid, that would have given them a larger European footprint and complicated things.

It may have some issues with the Hulu, since now they'd own 90% and have full control as opposed to before. Plus if the terms change, they can always make an excuse to go back and review it. Probably not, but something to keep in mind.

If the trailer disappears, it's pretty much exactly what anyone should expect. Looks like an X-Men movie. Nothing particularly cool, unique or exciting. Anybody who wants to like it can find something to like. Anybody who wants to hate it can find something to hate.

No Skrulls, cool uniforms, cool uses of powers or any other visuals that would excite anybody who doesn't already want to be excited.

Darkest Minds 2.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yeah, I saw it, Willie. Looks pretty standard for a Fox-Men flick. Not expecting great things from it. I saw a version with audio that had The end by The Doors- that song never sounded better!

I will wait for an official one. Hypothetically if I were looking for this, I would have been having issues with audio

I'm thinking this might push them to release the official version sooner than they otherwise would. They would want people's first impression to be of the clean, professional version, not a very poorly filmed bootleg.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

It may have some issues with the Hulu, since now they'd own 90% and have full control as opposed to before. Plus if the terms change, they can always make an excuse to go back and review it. Probably not, but something to keep in mind.

I would assume any Comcast/Disney deal wouldn't happen until after Disney closes on Fox, and then that deal can be evaluated by authorities on its own merits.

 

[WeaponXCII]

I'm thinking this might push them to release the official version sooner than they otherwise would. They would want people's first impression to be of the clean, professional version, not a very poorly filmed bootleg.

Oh, we're definitely getting the official version soon. Any studio with an ounce of intellig- oh....