The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

[Willie Lumpkin]

Oh, we're definitely getting the official version soon. Any studio with an ounce of intellig- oh....

 

[Tymminator]

I didn't see it, but from what I heard it was a typical FoX-men type trailer, more or less.

 

[ADollarADay]

Spider-man may take a tad longer

Kenichiro Yoshida To SPE Leaders: Studio Will Remain Big Part Of Sony Portfolio

Sony may play hardball, but then again that doesn't necessarily contradict them wanting Endemol for more IPs they could fully control. It'll be interesting to watch.

OTOH you gotta think that this opportunity to get Hulk, Namor, and theme park rights from Universal is a one off opportunity. If Disney and Comcast sit down to talk shop regarding Hulu and Sky shares as most analysts are predicting, then Disney must walk away with all Marvel rights. They will not be able to sniff that for awhile after the deal is signed and the assets are traded IMO.

It seems like Comcast has to get 50% + 1 by Oct 11th and they want to close everything out by the end of October. Disney/Fox will have to decide, but I think they should tender and get a fair amount of rights to their assets and a whole lot of money to deleverage.

The deleverage is important as that will allow for stock buyback and future expansion sooner. Let's say 15B (Sky shares) + 20B (RSNs) - 3.5B (Hulu + Marvel) = 31.5B cash. Disney was going to get ~50B in debt from Fox (36B cash + 14B in debt). It would take them until end of FY 2021 without Sky to go back to the level they are at now. With this divestment they would get an extra 18-19B in debt as opposed to 50B.

 

[Zarex]

One aspect of the deal mentioned on CNBC is that UK laws prevent the Sky and Hulu transactions from being comingled. So if the Mouse accepts Kabletown's offer for Fox's 39% of Sky, both parties wouldn't be able to finalize a deal for Hulu (or Marvel rights) until a later time. The deal that potentially brings home Marvel characters may not take place until the RSNs are spun off, assuming Comcast wants to pick up a sports network or two.


On the back of Comcast's Sky win, top technician says this is the best area in media

 

[ADollarADay]

One aspect of the deal mentioned on CNBC is that UK laws regarding such transactions prevent the Sky and Hulu transactions from being comingled. So if the Mouse accepts Kabletown's offer for Fox's 39% of Hulu, both parties would be able to finalize a deal for Hulu (or Marvel rights) until a later time. The deal that potentially brings home Marvel characters may not take place until the RSNs are spun off, assuming Comcast wants to pick up a sports network or two.


On the back of Comcast's Sky win, top technician says this is the best area in media

I think it just can't be a trade. There are always loopholes. It has to be two different transactions that happen simultaneously. That is, Comcast pays Disney/FOX XYZ for 39.14% of Sky and the distribution rights for the Dreamwork movies they control. Simultaneously Disney pays ABC to Comcast for 30% of Hulu, all the Hulk, Namor, and any other Marvel movie rights Comcast, all the Marvel theme park rights Comcast owns, and the Sky distribution rights to Disney and Fox movies and shows.

Technically not a trade of assets and just buying out a minority partner. I think that's how these deals are done anyways. In 2011 that's how Disney/Sony dealt with the merch/movie rights to Spider-man.

 

[Dark Raven]

I think it just can't be a trade. There are always loopholes. It has to be two different transactions that happen simultaneously. That is, Comcast pays Disney/FOX XYZ for 39.14% of Sky and the distribution rights for the Dreamwork movies they control. Simultaneously Disney pays ABC to Comcast for 30% of Hulu, all the Hulk, Namor, and any other Marvel movie rights Comcast, all the Marvel theme park rights Comcast owns, and the Sky distribution rights to Disney and Fox movies and shows.

Technically not a trade of assets and just buying out a minority partner. I think that's how these deals are done anyways. In 2011 that's how Disney/Sony dealt with the merch/movie rights to Spider-man.

It better happen simultaneously. It can't be like "on the count of 3, everyone lay down their weapons" and then on the count of 3 only one side does.

We don't want Disney selling their share of Sky and the Dreamworks movie distrib rights, and then Comcast refuse to sell their share of Hulu and the Marvel rights and keep it all.

 

[Detective Conan]

Well brace for impact, folks.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Well brace for impact, folks.

Well if it's the one I saw yesterday, it shouldn't be very earth-shaking. People who are excited for a new X-Men film will be excited for the glimpse. People who are losing interest or were never interested to start with won't see anything unique or exciting.

My big question is: "Will there be a lot of special effects shots in the final film that aren't ready to include in the trailer now?"

Because if this is it - if this trailer is showing the most exciting moments, there's nothing to see.

"Hey look! Magneto is putting on his helmet! Hey look! Scott is looking pensive! Hey look! Every one of these scenes could have come from a previous X-Men film... is this a fan made trailer?"

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Well brace for impact, folks.

Well if it's the one I saw yesterday, it shouldn't be very earth-shaking. People who are excited for a new X-Men film will be excited for the glimpse. People who are losing interest or were never interested to start with won't see anything unique or exciting.

My big question is: "Will there be a lot of special effects shots in the final film that aren't ready to include in the trailer now?"

Because if this is it - if this trailer is showing the most exciting moments, there's nothing to see.

"Hey look! Magneto is putting on his helmet! Hey look! Scott is looking pensive! Hey look! Every one of these scenes could have come from a previous X-Men film, and if I didn't know better I might think this was a fan-made trailer."

 

[Iceman]

From Bloomberg:

Disney Losing Sky Brings Buyback and M&A Options to Table: Cowen

"Sometimes when you lose, you really win," Cowen writes in a note to Disney shareholders. Analyst Doug Creutz (outperform, PT $102) says not having Sky reduces dilution of its primary value creation engine, which is a good outcome for Disney shareholders.

 

[Iceman]

Also Bloomberg:

Fox Intends to Sell Sky Stake to Comcast at GBP17.28 Per Share


Fox intends to either accept the revised Comcast offer in respect of the existing 21CF stake or sell the existing 21CF stake to Comcast at the Comcast offer price of GBP17.28/share.

 

[ADollarADay]

From Bloomberg:

Also Bloomberg:

Interesting. Thanks for that. Let's see what's developing.

 

[ADollarADay]

This forum is acting really weird...

Fox is selling their 39%. No word if a deal was reached for 30% of Hulu or Marvel rights. I'm guessing Fox is just tendering and no deal. It's surprising if that's the case.

Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX, FOXA) will sell its 39% ownership in Sky(OTCQX:SKYAY) to Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) at the £17.28/share price that Comcast bid for the rest of the company.

It's that or accepting the Comcast offer on the lapse of its own offer for Sky shares, which will have the same effect of unloading the stake.

Comcast's bid values Fox's Sky holding at £11.63B, or about $15.32B.

Fox backer Disney (NYSE:DIS), which was set to acquire Fox's interest in Sky, is supporting the decision.

 

[Boom]

Shame if Disney can't walk away from this with Hulk and Namor.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Shame if Disney can't walk away from this with Hulk and Namor.

I'm almost sure they will. Comcast is getting nothing out of the characters now, so their only value is what they're worth to Disney, so if any dealing is going on, Comcast, perhaps more than Disney, will want to try to throw those rights in and get some value for them.

And since Disney wants them (thought they may play it cool and pretend they don't give a s***), I can't imagine any deals happening without both sides getting what they want in regards to those characters.

 

[ADollarADay]

I'm almost sure they will. Comcast is getting nothing out of the characters now, so their only value is what they're worth to Disney, so if any dealing is going on, Comcast, perhaps more than Disney, will want to try to throw those rights in and get some value for them.

And since Disney wants them (thought they may play it cool and pretend they don't give a s***), I can't imagine any deals happening without both sides getting what they want in regards to those characters.

If Fox is just gonna tender, then Comcast will have no reason to deal with Disney afterwards. This is/was the opportunity to untangle that.

From the man himself:

“Along with the net proceeds from the divestiture of the RSNs, the sale of Fox’s Sky holdings will substantially reduce the cost of our overall acquisition and allow us to aggressively invest in building and creating high-quality content for our direct-to-consumer platforms to meet the growing demands of viewers,” said Robert A. Iger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, The Walt Disney Company.

The Walt Disney Company Consents to 21st Century Fox’s Decision to Tender Its 39% Stake in Sky | Seeking Alpha

 

[Zarex]

If Fox is just gonna tender, then Comcast will have no reason to deal with Disney afterwards. This is/was the opportunity to untangle that.

From the man himself:



The Walt Disney Company Consents to 21st Century Fox’s Decision to Tender Its 39% Stake in Sky | Seeking Alpha

Comcast may decide to bid on an RSN or two when Disney spins off the stations. And both Kabletown and the Mouse will likely meet regarding Hulu ownership as well. But Disney doesn't appear to have any real leverage to pick up outstanding Marvel rights without a major overpay. It's a bummer, but I can understand why Iger decided to pick the door with the money after winning the bidding war for Fox.

 

[HBarnill]

I sincerely think Disney couldn’t give a rat’s ass about Marvel’s rights from Universal. Hulk is doing fine without getting a solo and Namor is way too obscure of a character and will just get called out as an Aquaman rip-off now that the latter’s film is coming soon. They could use him as a supporting character in a F4 picture but that’s about it.

 

[Tymminator]

This forum is acting really weird...

Tell me about it. My posts have disappeared, and I’ve seen a few of your disappear and (sometimes)come back.

 

[Smurphftw]

For me the DPh trailer announcement has the same feel as a State of the Union Address from a lame duck President. We all know it's not gonna matter.

 

[Smurphftw]

I'm also having issues. A posted something and came back to find it disappeared. Even more bizarre was the fact that about half of my post was saved as a draft ready to be sent in an unfinished state

Basically I was comparing a trailer announcement for Dark Phoenix with a State of the Union address from a lame duck President. No one cares because we all know it doesn't really matter anymore.

 

[ADollarADay]

Fox, Acting on Behalf of Disney, Sells Its Stake in Sky to Comcast

But British takeover laws forbid that any deal involving Hulu being contingent on a tit-for-tat maneuver involving Sky. So a transaction for Hulu would have to be made independently.

As @Zarex said, it couldn't happen simultaneously. Any trade would have to be done separately.

Also apparently Fox needed to make a decision to post its lower bid for Sky by tomorrow. Tendering now prevents Fox (and Disney) to having to tender at a lower price later. Comcast held the upper hand here if there were to be any negotiation.

I sincerely think Disney couldn’t give a rat’s ass about Marvel’s rights from Universal. Hulk is doing fine without getting a solo and Namor is way too obscure of a character and will just get called out as an Aquaman rip-off now that the latter’s film is coming soon. They could use him as a supporting character in a F4 picture but that’s about it.

Sure they care, but not enough to overpay and - in this case - they couldn't even negotiate and were on a time crunch to make the decision to tender or lose money. A lot of characters were way too obscure until Marvel made them known. Namor would blow up in this day and age where BP makes 700MM domestic and CRA makes 160MM.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I wonder if, particularly in light of the UK law, Disney said something like: "We'll authorize Fox to sell you their portion of Sky if you promise, in good faith, to discuss selling us Hulu and other assets once the dust has settled."

They might end up with a weaker bargaining position that way, but if they're willing to pay a fair price, Comcast would probably be interested in discussing it at some later date.

 

[HBarnill]

Fox, Acting on Behalf of Disney, Sells Its Stake in Sky to Comcast



As @Zarex said, it couldn't happen simultaneously. Any trade would have to be done separately.

Also apparently Fox needed to make a decision to post its lower bid for Sky by tomorrow. Tendering now prevents Fox (and Disney) to having to tender at a lower price later. Comcast held the upper hand here if there were to be any negotiation.



Sure they care, but not enough to overpay and - in this case - they couldn't even negotiate and were on a time crunch to make the decision to tender or lose money. A lot of characters were way too obscure until Marvel made them known. Namor would blow up in this day and age where BP makes 700MM domestic and CRA makes 160MM.

BP and CRA had the benefit of being cultural significant and bringing us something new. After Aquaman, what will Namor bring?

 

[Dark Raven]

BP and CRA had the benefit of being cultural significant and bringing us something new. After Aquaman, what will Namor bring?

A good underwater superhero movie?

There's plenty that Namor can bring. He's an anti-hero and often thought of as a villain by the heroes and the land dwellers. His repeated clashes with the FF would be great to see. He has such an arrogance and disdain for the surface world that it makes him different from Aquaman.

It would be great to see classic encounters between him and the Human Torch or between Namor and Thing or Namor and Hulk. And also an Invaders team up in WWII.

Namor goes back right to the beginnings of the Marvel Universe back in the Timely days before Marvel comics.