There are several valid reasons why TDKR was not going to match TDK at the BO. Before the shootings even happened there was:
1-No Joker. Non-Joker Batman movies make less. The public probably loves the Joker character more than the Batman character.
2-Less impressive reviews. Rotten Tomatoes is a huge website for a reason. People go there to help them decide if they want to spend $100 to take their family to a movie. Hearing, "Good...but not as good as TDK" and seeing the lower score is going to have a negative effect.
3-No Heath Ledger. Ledger was incredible in TDK. The buzz around his performance helped to build tremendous hype for opening weekend.
4-No Heath Ledger death. The other half of the hype machine that E! network so gladly ran for WB. There are more than a few people who could not resist the morbid curiosity of seeing "his last performance".
These were all working against TDKR before any shooting. That's why it didn't get near the midnight record. This was not going to set any opening weekend record.
Given all that, I believe this has helped the box office by again attracting the morbidly curious to the theaters. The media will of course play up the fear....because that's what the media does. They won't show the people who are going to see TDKR to see "That Batman movie they are talking about so much on TV". Free publicity.
They are projecting this weekend to be 35% bigger than last year. That hardly supports the idea that people are afraid to go to the theater....
http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/dar...records-scalpers-brinks-trucks-than-avengers/
Seems illogical to claim people were staying home out of fear when a movie had the 3rd biggest opening of all time and attendance rose 35% from the previous year. More people went to the theaters....not less.