The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread III

[JeetKuneDo]

Yet Movie B made more money....

Exactly the reason why I suspect the tragedy HELPED the box office. TDKR had all those things going against it and still made more money. (Although...it did probably sell less tickets)

 

[weezerspider]

Exactly the reason why I suspect the tragedy HELPED the box office. TDKR had all those things going against it and still made more money. (Although...it did probably sell less tickets)

Eh...sorry buddy but that simply isn't the case. My college Roommate is a GM at the local theater and he said they refunded thirty-five tickets from pre-sales on friday morning due to people not feeling safe. Thats around $350 from that theater alone. The tragedy hurt it. Again, I had realistic expectations, it wasn't going to break the overall record without 3D, but it would have crushed the 2D record and gotten around HP numbers without the tragedy.

TDK helped TDKR. Some GA who aren't typically interested in these things may have gone and seen TDK due to some of the reasons you listed and loved it and saw TDKR. I mean, I hate James Bond, but I went and saw Casino Royale and loved it and I went to see Quantum of Solace because it was the sequel even though I still wouldn't consider myself a Bond fan.

 

[Liam_H]

This is all true. However you are talking about weekends where the public was not in fear for their lives about going to the movies.

If you want to make the case that the public is in fear for their lives and stayed away from the theaters....you would need to show proof in that less people actually left their homes. What movie is playing is not the important factor once you introduce this alleged fear. No one is going to take their family to see a movie just because it's popular if they think they are risking their families' lives.

Instead we got a 35% increase in attendance and a movie had the 3rd biggest opening of all time. Not exactly compelling proof that the public was terrified to sit in a theater.

I feel like you're not understanding the point of my argument. That 35% increase maybe factual but highly misleading. Such an increase is mainly attributed to the fact that a the third Batman movie had a much greater audience than CA:TFA. More people would've showed up this weekend to watch that movie regardless of what happened on Friday.

I'm not saying the shooting had a devastating effect but it did have an effect. Saying the weekend is 35% higher than the year previous doesn't negate that at all.

Free publicity. They don't say "There is no such thing as bad publicity" for a good reason.

Human nature works both ways. You can't just cite the fact that there will be people who panic and stay home and ignore the fact that there are people who will go see a movie because it is constantly in the news and is attached to a tragedy. Morbid curiosity is real. Only acknowledging one of these factors is spin.

I can't see how a tragedy where people we're gunned down watching a movie will cause more people to go watch the same movie the next day. If there is any effect it will be more negative than not.

Again using only logic:

Two Batman movies:

Movie A:
1-Features the Joker. The most popular Batman villain by far. It's not even close. Movies featuring the Joker do better at the box office.
2-Features an amazing performance by the actor playing the Joker. Audiences and critics raved and he was magnetic onscreen. This was known about before the movie was released.
3-Said actor dies tragically before the movie opens which fuels hype, free publicity, and generates morbid curiosity. "His last performance".
4-An RT score in the 90s. Rave reviews in general.

Movie B
1-Features Bane. "Little-known" is putting it mildly. "Who?" is the typical reaction from the public. Catwoman helps...but Batman Returns also featured Catwoman and that didn't help the box office.
2-Little to no advance raves about the actor playing Bane.
3-No tragic death to fuel hype, generate free publicity or morbid curiosity.
4-An RT score in the mid-80s. Less impressive reviews.

Which one would you guess would gross more at the box office? Why would anyone think Movie B would gross more? That would be a fool's bet and illogical. "Expectations" really got out of control for this one and generated crazy predictions which were destined to fail.

I agree with this only in the sense of overall take, but not that significant on OW. This movie will certainly have a lower multiplier than TDK.

 

[04nbod]

Im still saying $207

I think it will have made more that $207 t:

 

[Reek]

I'm still saying $355 million.

So whats the hold up on the official #'s? I thought its normally out early monday morning?

 

[lililatigresse]

Exactly the reason why I suspect the tragedy HELPED the box office. TDKR had all those things going against it and still made more money. (Although...it did probably sell less tickets)

I can't believe you seriously think that the news of people being massacred in a cinema totally incited people to go to cinema, seriously I don't know what's wrong with you

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Eh...sorry buddy but that simply isn't the case. My college Roommate is a GM at the local theater and he said they refunded thirty-five tickets from pre-sales on friday morning due to people not feeling safe. Thats around $350 from that theater alone. The tragedy hurt it. Again, I had realistic expectations, it wasn't going to break the overall record without 3D, but it would have crushed the 2D record and gotten around HP numbers without the tragedy.

Did your roommate tell you how many people showed up to see TDKR who would not have if not for the tragedy?

See how it works? We get one side of the story and leap to conclusions.

We have no idea what "would have happened". It may have grossed more...it may have grossed less....it may have grossed the same. Everything anyone says is speculation and guessing.

What we do know is the factors I listed which all indicated that TDKR was going to gross less than TDK. So nothing happened which did not fit those indicators.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I can't believe you seriously think that the news of people being massacred in a cinema totally incited people to go to cinema, seriously I don't know what's wrong with you

Apparently you've never driven on a highway when there is a wreck on the opposite side. Typically there will be a traffic jam on your side. Because human beings are idiots and can't help themselves when something bad happens. They have to see what all the fuss is about.

Of course there are going to be people who will go see TDKR who would not have gone before. That's just human nature. We have a very real morbid curiosity that defies logic.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I feel like you're not understanding the point of my argument. That 35% increase maybe factual but highly misleading. Such an increase is mainly attributed to the fact that a the third Batman movie had a much greater audience than CA:TFA. More people would've showed up this weekend to watch that movie regardless of what happened on Friday.

I'm not saying the shooting had a devastating effect but it did have an effect. Saying the weekend is 35% higher than the year previous doesn't negate that at all.

You are thinking in terms of how popular a movie is and not thinking about what people would do if they felt there was a danger.

The theaters aren't going to see an INCREASE in attendance if the public is afraid for their lives. A popular movie isn't going to overcome that kind of fear if it was really there.

 

[lililatigresse]

Apparently you've never driven on a highway when there is a wreck on the opposite side. Typically there will be a traffic jam on your side. Because human beings are idiots and can't help themselves when something bad happens. They have to see what all the fuss is about.

Of course there are going to be people who will go see TDKR who would not have gone before. That's just human nature. We have a very real morbid curiosity that defies logic.

Not "we" only YOU.

 

[Liam_H]

You are thinking in terms of how popular a movie is and not thinking about what people would do if they felt there was a danger.

The theaters aren't going to see an INCREASE in attendance if the public is afraid for their lives. A popular movie isn't going to overcome that kind of fear if it was really there.

You're applying an absolute to this argument where I am saying it is having some effect. Nothing quantifiable but there is some.

Also you're INCREASE is being based on something that was suppose to increase all along. TDKR was already projected to outgross the combination of Potter plus Captain America. By a very good margin too.

 

[atomicbattery]

Again using only logic:

Two Batman movies:

Movie A:
1-Features the Joker. The most popular Batman villain by far. It's not even close. Movies featuring the Joker do better at the box office.
2-Features an amazing performance by the actor playing the Joker. Audiences and critics raved and he was magnetic onscreen. This was known about before the movie was released.
3-Said actor dies tragically before the movie opens which fuels hype, free publicity, and generates morbid curiosity. "His last performance".
4-An RT score in the 90s. Rave reviews in general.

Movie B
1-Features Bane. "Little-known" is putting it mildly. "Who?" is the typical reaction from the public. Catwoman helps...but Batman Returns also featured Catwoman and that didn't help the box office.
2-Little to no advance raves about the actor playing Bane.
3-No tragic death to fuel hype, generate free publicity or morbid curiosity.
4-An RT score in the mid-80s. Less impressive reviews.

Which one would you guess would gross more at the box office? Why would anyone think Movie B would gross more? That would be a fool's bet and illogical. "Expectations" really got out of control for this one and generated crazy predictions which were destined to fail.

Again, hate to interrupt the logic with facts:

'The Dark Knight' midnight opening gross- $18.5 million
'The Dark Knight Rises' (with it's 'little known' villain, 'no tragic death to fuel hype', and 'less impressive reviews') midnight opening gross- $30.6 million

 

[JeetKuneDo]

You're applying an absolute to this argument where I am saying it is having some effect. Nothing quantifiable but there is some.

The problem is no one knows whether the effect was positive or negative. There is no way to know that.

Also you're INCREASE is being based on something that was suppose to increase all along. TDKR was already projected to outgross the combination of Potter plus Captain America. By a very good margin too.

"Supposed to" is where the problem lies. These projections were wrong...which happens very often (See The Avengers for more proof)...because the obvious factors that indicated TDKR should make less than TDK were ignored. It was always illogical to say TDKR should make more than TDK.

Two Batman movies:

Movie A:
1-Features the Joker. The most popular Batman villain by far. It's not even close. Movies featuring the Joker do better at the box office.
2-Features an amazing performance by the actor playing the Joker. Audiences and critics raved and he was magnetic onscreen. This was known about before the movie was released.
3-Said actor dies tragically before the movie opens which fuels hype, free publicity, and generates morbid curiosity. "His last performance".
4-An RT score in the 90s. Rave reviews in general.

Movie B
1-Features Bane. "Little-known" is putting it mildly. "Who?" is the typical reaction from the public. Catwoman helps...but Batman Returns also featured Catwoman and that didn't help the box office.
2-Little to no advance raves about the actor playing Bane.
3-No tragic death to fuel hype, generate free publicity or morbid curiosity.
4-An RT score in the mid-80s. Less impressive reviews.

No way Movie B should make more....but many believed it anyway.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Again, hate to interrupt the logic with facts:

'The Dark Knight' midnight opening gross- $18.5 million
'The Dark Knight Rises' (with it's 'little known' villain, 'no tragic death to fuel hype', and 'less impressive reviews') midnight opening gross- $30.6 million

Being front-loaded if of course normal for this situation. Noteworthy that this midnight number fell far short of the record and indicated all along that TDKR was not going to get near the weekend record. Yet some still persist in believing it was going to happen.

 

[Liam_H]

"Supposed to" is where the problem lies. These projections were wrong...which happens very often (See The Avengers for more proof)...because the obvious factors that indicated TDKR should make less than TDK were ignored. It was always illogical to say TDKR should make more than TDK.

Two Batman movies:

Movie A:
1-Features the Joker. The most popular Batman villain by far. It's not even close. Movies featuring the Joker do better at the box office.
2-Features an amazing performance by the actor playing the Joker. Audiences and critics raved and he was magnetic onscreen. This was known about before the movie was released.
3-Said actor dies tragically before the movie opens which fuels hype, free publicity, and generates morbid curiosity. "His last performance".
4-An RT score in the 90s. Rave reviews in general.

Movie B
1-Features Bane. "Little-known" is putting it mildly. "Who?" is the typical reaction from the public. Catwoman helps...but Batman Returns also featured Catwoman and that didn't help the box office.
2-Little to no advance raves about the actor playing Bane.
3-No tragic death to fuel hype, generate free publicity or morbid curiosity.
4-An RT score in the mid-80s. Less impressive reviews.

No way Movie B should make more....but many believed it anyway.

Again all these points I'll buy if you're talking about overall domestic take but you're not. I already said its gonna have a lower multiplier than TDK.

 

[Liam_H]

Being front-loaded if of course normal for this situation. Noteworthy that this midnight number fell far short of the record and indicated all along that TDKR was not going to get near the weekend record. Yet some still persist in believing it was going to happen.

Potter/Twilight movies are far more frontloaded that these Batman movies which have greater audience appeal.

Also you don't need to have the midnight record to beat the OW record.

 

[redhawk23]

Being front-loaded if of course normal for this situation. Noteworthy that this midnight number fell far short of the record and indicated all along that TDKR was not going to get near the weekend record. Yet some still persist in believing it was going to happen.

The midnight number is hardly indicative of the overall weekend number considering that even with 3d, The Avengers midnight showings grossed only a little over half of what the midnight showings for this film did.

 

[weezerspider]

OK if we have to break it down A's and B's, how about this one:

Scenario A: Hey honey, a gunmen went on a killing rampage at a theater last night. We weren't planning on going to the movies this week, but now we should definitely go!

Scenario B: Hey honey, I know we were planning on seeing that new Batman movie this weekend, but a gunmen went on a killing rampage at a theater last night, so we may want to stay away from theaters for awhile, Atleast until all of this dies down.

B is going to happen 9.9/10 over A. Your example of people slowing down to look at a car crash is different. People are not putting themselves at risk by catching a glimpse of the car accident. Saying "hmm, people died at a theater last night, lets go to the movies and see..." see what? see if there is a lunatic on a killing spree at their local theater? No. Also, it has nothing to do with the film itself. Holmes didn't watch TDKR. He began killing 15 minutes into the film. Going and seeing the film is not going to give anyone a closer look at what happened that night, unlike looking at a car crash. I'm sorry, but the argument is so illogical, its laughable.

 

[warpaint]

Your example of people slowing down to look at a car crash is different. People are not putting themselves at risk by catching a glimpse of the car accident. Saying "hmm, people died at a theater last night, lets go to the movies and see..." see what? see if there is a lunatic on a killing spree at their local theater?
No. Also, it has nothing to do with the film itself. Holmes didn't watch TDKR. He began killing 15 minutes into the film. Going and seeing the film is not going to give anyone a closer look at what happened that night, unlike looking at a car crash. I'm sorry, but the argument is so illogical, its laughable.

BINGO. Sure, millions of people are basically s****y little vampires, loving to feeding off the pain of others; but ONLY if they can do it from a safe distance.
The same people who slow down to stare at that car wreck are refreshing every news site, combing over every single detail about those shootings right now, probably over and over again.

But they also are much more lilkely to avoid the cinema than be drawn to it right now... they need that nice thick pane of glass in between the carnage they love and their own flesh.

TV screen, car window- doesn't matter- they need to feel protected and detached, not at possible risk theselves.

 

[atomicbattery]

Being front-loaded if of course normal for this situation.

But you yourself said that 'The Dark Knight' had far more 'hype' and 'curiosity' than 'The Dark Knight Rises'. I'm having difficulty understanding the logic....Shouldn't the fevered anticipation for 'The Dark Knight' have made its opening night gross at least as impressive as the far less anticipated 'The Dark Knight Rises'?

These are real numbers, from before the tragedy (or, rather, before wide awareness of it):
'The Dark Knight' midnight opening- $18.5 million
'The Dark Knight Rises' midnight opening- $30.6 million

How does that square with the 'logic'?

 

[Dragon_316ca]

Not TDKR-related, but look at this weekend's drop:

https://***********/ERCboxoffice

ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT dropped off a whopping -56% w/ $20.4M--total is now $88.8M.

Spidey's webbing snapped in week #3, as AMAZING SPIDER-MAN plunged -69%, grossing just $10.8M. Total is $228M.

Seems every studio felt the impact of the tragedy in CO, as grosses are truncated across the board this weekend.

 

[weezerspider]

Not TDKR-related, but look at this weekend's drop:

https://***********/ERCboxoffice

Further proof the tragedy hurt TDKR. I was surprised to not see people thrilled it still managed to beat the 2D record and out due TDK. I'm happy for that. From a business perspective, WB can't be disappointed. However, that really doesn't matter all things considered.

 

[BaleISBatman4ev]

Tune in to MSNBC! They're doing a segment on TDKR and not letting the tragedy and the maniac take the film away from us!

 

[007]

From a personal perspective, I was quite suprised at the number of empty seats when I watched it, I live in England so the shootings as tragic as they were, really had no effect whatsoever over here in terms of keeping people away.

I watched it first on friday night, prime time 8.45, completely packed theatre, due a ticket pre booking mix up, me and my friend were able to get 2 last tickets, I was fairly shocked though that it was not sold out however at that time on opening day.

I then watched it the next day, to go over parts i'd missed at about midday on a saturday, the theartre was about 60% full. Its a cinema right next to a shopping centre and with restaurants all the way next to it. The centre pulls in about 200 thousand people on a sat.

I was personally suprised at how empty it was.

This film will be a huge financial success, but IMHO it wont out do the dark knight, let alone the avengers.

I think ledgers death, more so than his performance had a bigger hand in the box office than most people thought.

I reckon it will probably hit around the 800 mark.

The amazing sm has done around 550 so far I think, so on the whole not a bad take for WB.

 

[db85usa]

Do we have an official tally? Last I heard before NY Times received the information from WB it was $162+ million with ticket sales still left to count.