XBOX ONE COULD HIT ITS STRIDE IN 2015
Microsoft's position isn't nearly as bad as it seems.
BY: COLIN MORIARTY
OCTOBER 22, 2014
When it comes to the Xbox brand, Microsoft has a problem, and strangely, that problem revolves more around outside forces than its own console. Analyzing the limited data available makes it clear that Xbox One is selling healthily for Microsoft. Xbox One sales are steadily outpacing the Xbox 360's nearly a year into their respective races. It also has a fairly strong library of games that doesn't seem all that different from other consoles' oft-underwhelming year one slates. Hardware sales and games aren't holding Xbox One back.
No, Microsoft's big problem is Sony's PlayStation 4. For as well as Xbox One is selling, PlayStation 4 consistently does better. In fact, its sales have been historically high since its release in late 2013. For nine consecutive months, PS4 has outsold Xbox One in the United States, sometimes by a small percentage, and other times by a big margin. Even Titanfall, Xbox One's anticipated tour de force, couldn't stop the PS4 from outselling it the month the game launched. Optically, everything is pointing in PS4's direction. Xbox One's seeming difficulty in keeping up with PS4 on a technical level isn't helping to change the optical problems in a more literal sense, either.
The thing is -- as I've oft-remarked on Podcast Beyond -- if Microsoft could look at its numbers in a vacuum, if the company could analyze its hardware and software sales based solely on its own traction, and not through the lens of how it's doing against its competition, the company would likely be pleased. Things could be better, of course -- I'm sure Microsoft execs wish they were doing PS4 numbers -- but from Xbox to Xbox 360 to Xbox One, Microsoft's gaming brand has grown stronger in year one sales. There should be every reason for Microsoft to be optimistic and bullish about the future of Xbox One, even if the company isn't likely to surpass Sony's meteoric success with PlayStation 4 any time soon. Indeed, Sony itself taught Microsoft that launching a console isn't a sprint, and that no one should ever count out a seemingly wounded, and even down-and-out competitor.
IGN's own privately commissioned polling plays this out. A "gamer" in the poll conducted on our behalf is someone who plays video games three times a week for at least three hours. 17 percent of those people own a PS4; 13 percent own an Xbox One. For context, 43 percent of those same people own an Xbox 360, with 38 percent owning a PlayStation 3. In other words, there isn't a major difference in numbers. The biggest discrepancy when looking at PS4's numbers is with Wii U, a console only 11 percent of gamers own.
For the two console leaders -- Microsoft and Sony -- the going is good right now, even if it seems one is enjoying the lion's share of the success.
The free market is a funny thing. It's a landscape pocked with strange politics. Yet, for the two console leaders -- Microsoft and Sony -- the going is good right now, even if it seems one is enjoying the lion's share of the success. As of late this past summer, PS4 and Xbox One were combining to outsell PS3 and Xbox 360 during all four console's respective first years on the market by a stunning 80 percent in the US, the world's biggest console market. The tealeaves many prognosticators were reading when the Wii U launched to strong sales and then quickly cratered were wrong. Console gaming isn't dead, or limited to a small, niche market. Nearly one year into the new cycle, console gaming is alive and well, and PlayStation 4 and Xbox One alike have contributed to sustaining -- and even expanding -- the market. Even Wii U, with relatively soft sales that have seen it sink into GameCube (and even Dreamcast) territory over its first two years, has helped push the console market along on the back of its intriguing catalog of first party exclusives. All three consoles -- especially PS4 and Xbox One, with their strong first year showings -- have a place on the market.
Yes, Sony's wins are easier to recount. Most recently, its unusual marriage with Activision's and Bungie's Destiny has paid off in a major way, in a much, much more significant fashion than EA's association with Microsoft over Titanfall. Destiny's success on PlayStation platforms, and the fact that it helped triple PS4 sales during the game's month of release, has been in the news just as people stopped wondering aloud whether EA regretted getting into bed with Microsoft with Titanfall, when it almost certainly would have sold better as a PS4 game.
But Microsoft has new tricks up its sleeve. Sunset Overdrive, a game that, if history was any indication, should have and would have been a PlayStation 4-exclusive (what with Insomniac's nearly two decade history of making PlayStation exclusives), is coming exclusively to Xbox One in a couple of short weeks. And then there's Halo: Master Chief Collection, a guaranteed multi-million seller that will finally connect Xbox's core audience with its favorite franchise. It's a game that will undoubtedly push hardware off the shelf. (Also, stand-alone retail versions of Destiny actually sold best on Xbox One, though these numbers don't include the cascade of PS4 Destiny bundles that were sold.)
It's true that one of the most remarkable things about PlayStation 4's stellar performance is the fact that it all happened without a dearth of incredible triple-A exclusives (though, in my humble opinion, the smaller games and indies have been more than worth the price of admission). Knack, Killzone: Shadow Fall, Infamous: Second Son, Driveclub, and a few others have launched, but nothing (save Resogun, of course!) has truly set the world on fire. It's also true that PlayStation 4 is about to receive a deluge of exclusives in 2015 that people have been clamoring for, like The Order: 1886, Bloodborne, and the biggest one of them all, Uncharted 4: A Thief's End. If PS4s are selling now, "when there are no games," then it's safe to project strong sales through 2015.
There's no reason why, on paper, that lineup can't stand toe-to-toe with what PlayStation 4 will have to offer, even if PS4 is likely to continue enjoying a sales advantage moving forward.
But Xbox One isn't without its own slate of tantalizing exclusives -- long-term or timed -- that could slowly build into a roster worthy of consideration from those still sitting on the fence. Ori and the Blind Forest, Crackdown, Inside, Halo 5, Below, and others will be buttressed by strong third-party support in 2015, creating a landscape more welcoming to prospective players. There's no reason why, on paper, that lineup can't stand toe-to-toe with what PlayStation 4 will have to offer, even if PS4 is likely to continue enjoying a sales advantage moving forward.
There's no doubt that Xbox One's introduction and rollout were terrible. Disastrous, even. The fact that Microsoft revealed Xbox One to the world in such a blundering fashion at the same time Sony was hitting all of the right notes with PlayStation 4 made Microsoft's series of bad decisions even worse. It was especially confusing considering this was Microsoft's race to lose. For as well as Sony handled the PS4 pre-launch, Microsoft has no one to blame about negative consumer perception but itself. Its errors were completely unforced.
But let us not forget history. PlayStation 3's rollout was also terrible, arguably just as bad as Xbox One's, with a horrendous price point backed-up by few notable games and a ton of classic Sony golden era bravado. But Sony turned the ship around. It took time, it took effort, it took patience, and it took money, but PS3 and Xbox 360 are at general sales parity today, a stunning feat considering Xbox 360 came out a full calendar year earlier and had already begun establishing itself on the market by the time PS3 launched in 2006. Don't let the revisionist historians fool you: there were plenty of people writing PS3's eulogy in 2007, and even 2008, just as there have been some people confusingly writing Xbox One's eulogy this year.
layStation 3's rollout was also terrible, arguably just as bad as Xbox One's...
Why couldn't Microsoft -- a company flush with money -- increase the rate of Xbox One's success, and then sustain it, even if it may never catch up with or surpass PlayStation 4 in global sales? Just think about what Microsoft managed to do with Xbox 360 against equally staunch (albeit bumbling) opposition? One console doing well doesn't necessarily preclude other consoles from also performing strongly, and with the competition between Sony and Microsoft at an all-time high, every gamer benefits from these two companies battling one another. After all, through competition comes better products, a story as old as capitalism itself.
Either way, it's time for the bickering to end. Xbox One may not be anywhere near PS4's level of success today, but that doesn't mean it isn't doing well in its own right, and that doesn't mean that it doesn't have a clear path towards even greater success in the future.
Colin Moriarty is IGN’s Senior Editor. You can follow him on Twitter.
