Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Surfer]

how's the box office in australia? do the locals go ALL OUT to support Hemsworth movies?

Australia's numbers as of 12/24/17.

$26,963,803

I hope that helps you.

Surfer

 

[ultradog]

how's the box office in australia? do the locals go ALL OUT to support Hemsworth movies?

Ragnarok has made $27M in Australia. That is more than Civil War, GotG2, and SM:Homecoming made there, so I'd say the answer to your question is YES!

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

So did it cross 850?

 

[ultradog]

So did it cross 850?

No not yet, but it will.

T:R moving down to just 540 theaters today, staying ahead of Doctor Strange at this point (466). T:R should continue to outperform DS by 10-20%, which means T:R makes at least $3.5M more domestically from today on, and ends up with around $314M, passing IM2 and ending up in 18th place on the domestic CBM list, behind IM.

That's also enough to reach $850M WW, even if it didn't make another dollar overseas.

 

[Krystal]

Thursday $296,105

$847 worldwide now.

If it could make $1 million Friday-Monday it would be at $311 and $848.

That would mean it had to make only 2 million for the rest of it's domestic run to reach $850.

When it reaches $311 domestic it will have passed MOS on the adjusted domestic list

T:R will end up at 26th on the all-time domestic adjusted list -- of super hero movies.

For context the top 5 on the adjusted list of super-hero movies are....

Avengers --------$686
Dark Knight ---- $664
Spider-Man -----$620
Batman '89 ---- $562
Spider-Man 2 ---$537

That's a rather sobering list. Will IW even make $686?

Besides Avengers -- all those CBMs came out 2008 and earlier

More very sobering numbers.....

Adjusted for inflation Batman Forever made $377m

That is higher than every MCU movie except 6 (Av, Av2, IM3, CA3, IM1 and GG2.)

So clearly there was a hunger for CBMs back in the day that now only exists for the "event" movies and the occasional mega-hit like WW.

The studios better keep those budgets in check because people aren't going nuts for every one of the many CBMs -- even if they are well made.

 

[Wildcard]

I think Marvel, if anybody, has done extremely well with keeping their budgets in check. T:R has done phenomenal business on both the domestic and international fronts so I don't really see an issue here.

 

[HammerDown]

Friday - estimated 308.000
For comparison last Friday turned in 292.159. So good news.

 

[Iceman]

So it's pretty close to Iron Man 2 for domestic now. $310m vs $312m.

 

[warriorking]

Worldwide:$847,321,810

 

[ultradog]

Not sure how or why T:R's numbers would go up on NYE Sunday while all others are down by a large margin, but I'll take it!

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/12/31

Perhaps it's a typo? How could they make this kind of estimate so early in the day?

$249K, not $349K, would be much more in line with what other films are estimated to do today. I have to wonder if that's a typo.

EDIT: Yep, a day later this number was changed on the-numbers website, it was indeed a typo.

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...December 24, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $309,104,758 / $844,531,186


BO update...December 31, 2017 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $311,370,239 / $848,013,810

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 311M
Foreign = 536M
Worldwide = 848M

 

[Warlock]

So now it looks certain to cross 850m, will it make 855, and be within 10m of GoTG2?!?
The foreign totals haven't been updated for a week, so that will help boost it to over 849 by Friday before next weekend.

 

[warriorking]

New years total: $274,976
Domestic: $311,500,126
WW:$848,143,697
Will probably take another 2 weeks to hit the magic 850 Million mark..

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...December 24, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $309,104,758 / $844,531,186


BO update...January 1, 2018 - monday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $311,500,126 / $848,143,697

 

[Iceman]

Haha, slow progress to the final goal.

 

[HammerDown]

I think it will land around the 851/852M mark WW.

After this same weekend Doctor Strange made a total of 2.5M to finish it's run. Thor Ragnarok is outpacing DS and i guess it has around 3M left in it's tank.

 

[warriorking]

I think it will land around the 851/852M mark WW.

After this same weekend Doctor Strange made a total of 2.5M to finish it's run. Thor Ragnarok is outpacing DS and i guess it has around 3M left in it's tank.

Let the Hammer Fall!!!!

Tuesday Totals: $182,206
Domestic: $311,682,332
WW: $848,982,332

 

[Krystal]

Wow -- $312 and $849 by Thursday the 5th!!

I guess everybody wasn't back in school on Tuesday.

 

[Iceman]

I think it will land around the 851/852M mark WW.

After this same weekend Doctor Strange made a total of 2.5M to finish it's run. Thor Ragnarok is outpacing DS and i guess it has around 3M left in it's tank.

That would be cool with me. Then we can start anticipating Thor 4 t:

 

[HammerDown]

That would be cool with me. Then we can start anticipating Thor 4 t:

I'll be here for it.

 

[BigThor]

Count me in as well

 

[warriorking]

Wednesday: $137,563
Domestic: $311,819,895
WW: $849,119,895

$880,105 More to go...t:

 

[warriorking]

Thursday: $124,891
Worldwide: $849,261,134
$738,866 More to go....

 

[Iceman]

This weekend should take a nice chunk out of the remaining target too lol.