Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[Chewy]

A 9M Friday would never indicate a 23M weekend.

A 30% increase on Sat and a 30% decrease on Sun gives it 30M for the weekend.

Saturday is the biggest moviegoing day of the week, the only time Friday is ever bigger than Saturday is opening weekend. Which is why second weekend Friday drops are always bigger than second weekend total drops.

 

[BigThor]

If Thor does anything above 26 million, it'll be fantastic.

My worries came from the 9.1 million Friday seeming to indicate a 23 million dollar weekend. If Friday was just inexplicably low, then it's fine.

Woah dude, why are you just so unexplicably negative?

I haven't seen ANY projections below 31M, much less 26 million, so wtf?

 

[kedrell]

Deadline's suggesting Thor's weekend may be 34m. I'm skeptical that the number could suddenly go that high, so I'll wait for actuals tomorrow. Very nice if so, of course.

Well this is anecdotal, so take it with a grain of salt. But I work graveyard at a gas station very near a popular theater in town at one of our local malls. In summer, I do tend to see a correlation in our sales when big movies are released. Friday was unusualy dead. But Saturday it picked up tremendously. I had the best cash drop total that I've had in over a month for one shift(granted, when films like FF & Thor had their opening weekends I was on vacation so I doubt this Saturday was a big as those opening days were). So I'm starting to think Nikke isn't so far off. 15M Sat may be a strech but even if she's 1M too high, 14M is better that I was hoping for Thor. I thought 13M at best after friday's number. 32M for an even 50% is still in play. Maybe even a lower % drop. Fingers crossed. 200M might not be totally dead after all(still a strech though).

 

[BigThor]

A 9M Friday would never indicate a 23M weekend.

A 30% increase on Sat and a 30% decrease on Sun gives it 30M for the weekend.

Saturday is the biggest moviegoing day of the week, the only time Friday is ever bigger than Saturday is opening weekend. Which is why second weekend Friday drops are always bigger than second weekend total drops.

True, but that does seem a bit wierd, why are Friday's bigger than Saturday's in the opening week?

 

[Chewy]

True, but that does seem a bit wierd, why are Friday's bigger than Saturday's in the opening week?

Because people want to rush out and see the movie the first chance they can, on opening day.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Woah dude, why are you just so unexplicably negative?

I haven't seen ANY projections below 31M, much less 26 million, so wtf?

Mojo has it at 29M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3160&p=.htm

 

[Chewy]

Lightning never strikes the same spot twice, but thunder just did. THOR was #1 again at the box office with $34.5 mil. Total now stands at $119 mil.

http://www.facebook.com/ercboxoffice

 

[Sabaoth]

Deadline's suggesting Thor's weekend may be 34m. I'm skeptical that the number could suddenly go that high, so I'll wait for actuals tomorrow. Very nice if so, of course.

If that number sticks, it would be wonderful news not just for Thor but for the future of the comic book genre in film.
It would also clearly demonstrate that Thor is not going to be another Incredible Hulk.
I guess we just have to sit tight until the actuals.

 

[Chewy]

47.5% drop, softer than Iron Man's second weekend drop.

Actuals may change it a little but still fantastic. Anything over 30 would have been good.

 

[MadVillainy]

http://www.facebook.com/ercboxoffice

nice

 

[kedrell]

Mojo has it at 29M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3160&p=.htm

That's BOM's prediction going in to the weekend.

 

[kedrell]

If the # holds the Thor'll be at $145M or so by next weekends end. I'm gonna have to revise my projections now.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

http://www.facebook.com/ercboxoffice

That's excellent, man. Hope that number holds up.

 

[hatebox]

Although actuals could still drop by a million or so, it's a good hold either way. It had little competition and took advantage of that. 200m could still be out of reach but it doesn't really matter now: it's a hit and Marvel will be happy.

 

[marcvader]

Wow, excellent

 

[kedrell]

OW - 65.7M
After dailies: 84.7M
2nd weekend: 119M
after dailies: 130M
3rd weekend: 148M
after dailies: 154M
4th weekend: 168M(Memorial Day)
after dailies: 172M
5th weekend: 179M
after dailies: 182M
6th weekend: 187M
after dailies: 189M
7th weekend: 192M

Total: 198M-202M

 

[rashad]

Did you factor that Thor will be losing it's IMAX and 3D theaters?

 

[kedrell]

Not sure how that's going to factor in.

 

[Spider-Fan]

47.5% drop, softer than Iron Man's second weekend drop.

Actuals may change it a little but still fantastic. Anything over 30 would have been good.

Very solid numbers for Thor

 

[kedrell]

Ok, took a guess with it losing the IMAX & such this next weekend factoring in:

OW - 65.7M
After dailies: 84.7M
2nd weekend: 119M
after dailies: 130M
3rd weekend: 146M
after dailies: 151M
4th weekend: 165M(Memorial Day)
after dailies: 169M
5th weekend: 176M
after dailies: 179M
6th weekend: 184M
after dailies: 186M
7th weekend: 189M

Total: 195M-199M

 

[TheVileOne]

Excellent hold over if the actuals are consistent with the estimates.

I thought opening weekend was a little worrisome and a bit low sort of like with Hulk and Incredible Hulk, HOWEVER what Thor had going for it was good reviews, good feedback, and good word of mouth unlike those films.

For an unestablished and unproven cinematic character like Thor this is freaking amazing. It is smooth sailing from here on out. And Thor will likely I think make half a billion worldwide or at least close to it. $200 million US might be out of reach but we will see. There will be a big expected dropoff next weekend with Pirates 4, however, Memorial Day weekend will give it another nice boost. I think it will top out around $175-185 million, but for Thor that's pretty impressive.

Now ball is in Captain America's court so I hope they don't screw it up. Thor picked up the ball and ran with it. Keeping all that momentum is crucial. Avengers will go off no matter what, but it won't be very good if Cap fumbles beforehand.

Meanwhile DC Ent. still can't figure out what the heck they are doing .

I was thinking like a 53-55% dropoff. Less than 50% is way above expectations and better than I could've hoped for. Generally for big releases like this if it goes less than 50% in its second weekend, that is always a good sign.

 

[KangConquers]

Worldwide total is up to 317 million, and foreign hasn't been counted yet. This was a make it or break it weekend, and Thor made it.

When Foreign comes in, it should be north of 340 million. Which means profit in a week or two.

I'm done *****ing...at least until Cap comes out.

 

[kedrell]

It's already in profit.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah this was definitely a make or break weekend because honestly I find the second weekend to be one of the most crucial in a movie's release. Case in point the second weekends for Fantastic Four 2, Hulk '03, etc.

This basically gives Marvel Studios another big success to hang their hat on since this movie started being developed before the Disney buyout as well as another franchise and also more momentum going into Cap and Avengers.

Now it's just super important for Captain America to deliver and keep the momentum going. Cap being a disappointment or underperforming like I said won't kill Avengers. Avengers is now happening no matter what. But it won't be good for Avengers' future if Cap doesn't deliver on a certain level. I mean Incredible Hulk's failures didn't really hurt anything except for Hulk's marketability as a solo-franchise character. Thor was really a crucial release and they nailed it here.

This isn't really a game-changer, but it definitely shows Marvel's aptness in turning relatively unknown and unproven characters that aren't popular as say Wolverine or Spider-Man can become popular and franchise characters. Iron Man wasn't nearly as popular before the movie even though he was a mainstay and milestone character. Once again it is Marvel setting the example while DC Ent. is struggling to reboot Superman AGAIN and can't figure out how to do Wonder Woman or Justice Leage.

 

[TheVileOne]

It's already in profit.

Probably. Keep in mind that Paramount gets a cut off the top. Theatres get a cut. Not sure how the international sales are set up.

Also while many tried to bash Marvel it was probably smart for them to manage and control the budgets of the movie so well. I remember a lot of people were *****ing about how they handled the deals with a lot of the actors, but honestly it was a smart move so the budgets for Thor and Cap wouldn't get out of control because honestly spending over like $150 million a first time Thor movie is a little ridiculous. And second, Incredible Hulk did not deliver for it's budget really.