Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 4

[FunkMiller]

I'm reposting from the SM:H BO thread:

Fair play

I'm in dumb prediction mode though, so I'm going to say that when both movies have ended their theatrical runs, their WW takes will be within 25/50 million of each other.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Last night #WonderWoman rose past PassionOfTheChrist to reach #33 all-time domestic w/ $371.3M. May hit $380M by SUN. $400M within reach.

That's a 34% increase form Monday. Very impressive. Keeps on doing very well even with Spidey going great guns at the BO.

 

[gerrym51]

Since it doesn't open in Japan until august 28th it has a sho at 800 million.

Now Japan is not kind to DC superheroes but 7 million might be doable in Japan

 

[Osiris-Rex]

OTOH some movies with female protagonist are popular in Japan.
Lara Croft made $21M
Charlie's Angels:FT made $24M
Kill Bill v1 made $20M
Maleficent made $63M

So it depends on if WW is seen as a female led movie or just another superhero movie.
With the right advertising by WB in Japan, play up she is a female hero, and not just a DC superhero, WW could do well in Japan.

 

[Micromind]

Box Office: 'Wonder Woman' Soars Past $750 Million Worldwide

But back in the world of overseas grosses, with $748.4 million worldwide not counting whatever it made overseas on Monday and Tuesday, the film has surely earned (or will earn as of today) over $750m worldwide. It has already passed the $747.9 million global total of X-Men: Days of Future Past and is currently the 78th-biggest global grosser of all time. And in terms of the year, it's in fourth place, behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($858m), Fate of the Furious ($1.23b) and Beauty and the Beast ($1.26b).
.............
It'll get past Marc Webb's first Spider-Man movie and probably/possibly Guardians, Deadpool and Spider-Man 2, but beyond that is a longshot unless it goes crazy in Japan next month.
..........................

It's possible for Wonder Woman to reach $800 million worldwide and $400m domestic

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...oars-past-750-million-worldwide/#4ed205362ceb

 

[Micromind]

WW's next target - Marc Webb's The Amazing Spider-Man ($ 757 M).

And, after that, Guardians of the Galaxy ($ 773 M), Deadpool ($ 783 M) and Sam Raimi's Spider-Man 2 ($ 784 M).

 

[UncleSam1776]

Now Japan is not kind to DC superheroes but 7 million might be doable in Japan

Just DC superheroes? The only big MCU film in Japan was the first Avengers movie.

MoS - 8M
BvS - 16M
SS - 15M

GotG Vol 2 - 10M
CW - 24M
Winter Soldier - 6M
Doctor Strange - 16M
GotG Vol 1 - 9M
Ant-Man - 9M

 

[Micromind]

I'm expecting anything between 15M (minimum) to 25 M (maximum) from Japan.

 

[Flemm]

15M strikes me as a pretty high minimum number, tbh.

Man of Steel did slightly less than 9M there, with the more recent DCEU films being around 15M.

So if WW can hit somewhere in the 10M-15M range, that would be good, and it would probably be enough to get to 400M international.

Anything over 15M would mean the film is over-performing. I don't think we can expect that, though of course it's not impossible.

 

[gerrym51]

OTOH some movies with female protagonist are popular in Japan.
Lara Croft made $21M
Charlie's Angels:FT made $24M
Kill Bill v1 made $20M
Maleficent made $63M

So it depends on if WW is seen as a female led movie or just another superhero movie.
With the right advertising by WB in Japan, play up she is a female hero, and not just a DC superhero, WW could do well in Japan.

i went to box office mojo and looked up totals for MOS and BvS. they were pretty low. Based on these i feel 7 million is all reasonable expectations

 

[Osiris-Rex]

Then again most of those comic book movies had a male as the lead character. If Wonder Woman plays as a movie with a female protagonist, maybe WW will do better.

 

[iEquinox]

The official Tuesday number was $1,640,127, up 38.5% from yesterday.
$371,297,661 total after 40 days. GotG2 was at $368,269,120 after day 40.

It's still a little bit behind Spider-Man(2002) which was at $372,704,115 after day 40.

 

[gerrym51]

Then again most of those comic book movies had a male as the lead character. If Wonder Woman plays as a movie with a female protagonist, maybe WW will do better.

Most except maleficent pretty old -times change. also not super hero movies.

the only valid comparisons-i said VALID-are MOS,BVS, and maybe SS.

7 million still seems reasonable to me. Of course I hope it's more but have to be realistic

 

[gerrym51]

The official Tuesday number was $1,640,127, up 38.5% from yesterday.
$371,297,661 total after 40 days. GotG2 was at $368,269,120 after day 40.

It's still a little bit behind Spider-Man(2002) which was at $372,704,115 after day 40.

I know we have different opinions about this iEquinox but since i have you here-spider man although up 24 percent tuesday is a smaller increase then most of the other movies yesterday. I still think it's slowing down. 24 percent is good compared to school in session times but this is a total school out of session time. Again just my OPINION-lol

 

[StormC]

Japan is a pretty nebulous market, to be honest. Hope it does well there to just push it over the hill for an 800M WW finish.

 

[Iceman]

The official Tuesday number was $1,640,127, up 38.5% from yesterday.
$371,297,661 total after 40 days. GotG2 was at $368,269,120 after day 40.

It's still a little bit behind Spider-Man(2002) which was at $372,704,115 after day 40.

Gonna beat GotG2 by a fair amount and gonna be interesting to see what other scalps it can get.

 

[iEquinox]

I know we have different opinions about this iEquinox but since i have you here-spider man although up 24 percent tuesday is a smaller increase then most of the other movies yesterday. I still think it's slowing down. 24 percent is good compared to school in session times but this is a total school out of session time. Again just my OPINION-lol

Not sure why you'd respond about Spider-Man in the Wonder Woman thread

Anyway, big movies always have smaller increases on their first Tuesdays than later on in their release. Anything above 20% is pretty good.

Look at other movies in the last 2 years and you'll see my point. First Tuesday increase is pretty much always the lowest if there's no unusual factors affecting it. Ant-Man was released in July as well and had a 22.6% increase on the first Tuesday and it had great legs. 24% is by no means anything to be alarmed by.

Whether it's mid summer with schools out or not, first Tuesday increases are usually lower. And that's a fact, not an opinion.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The official Tuesday number was $1,640,127, up 38.5% from yesterday.
$371,297,661 total after 40 days. GotG2 was at $368,269,120 after day 40.

It's still a little bit behind Spider-Man(2002) which was at $372,704,115 after day 40.

Zod damn, the actuals came in higher than early estimates. Watta run by Wonder Woman. I'm lovin' it.

 

[gerrym51]

Not sure why you'd respond about Spider-Man in the Wonder Woman thread

Anyway, big movies always have smaller increases on their first Tuesdays than later on in their release. Anything above 20% is pretty good.

Look at other movies in the last 2 years and you'll see my point. First Tuesday increase is pretty much always the lowest if there's no unusual factors affecting it. Ant-Man was released in July as well and had a 22.6% increase on the first Tuesday and it had great legs. 24% is by no means anything to be alarmed by.

Whether it's mid summer with schools out or not, first Tuesday increases are usually lower. And that's a fact, not an opinion.

I'm talking about in relation to the other movies at the same time over same tuesday. However i did not look at those other tuesdays with the same movies that played with them. I will check it out-thanks

 

[iEquinox]

I'm talking about in relation to the other movies at the same time over same tuesday. However i did not look at those other tuesdays with the same movies that played with them. I will check it out-thanks

I see how that would give you the wrong impression. Comparing a big movie's first Tuesday increase with other movies' later Tuesday increases would make it seem low. But like I said it's a standard thing for a new release. Look at when GotG2 and Wonder Woman had their first Tuesdays for example. They both had the smallest increase in the top 10 for that Tuesday (both between 22-23%). For GotG2 every movie in the top 10 even increased over 40% compared to GotG2's 22.7%.

 

[Greenlite]

Just DC superheroes? The only big MCU film in Japan was the first Avengers movie.

MoS - 8M
BvS - 16M
SS - 15M

GotG Vol 2 - 10M
CW - 24M
Winter Soldier - 6M
Doctor Strange - 16M
GotG Vol 1 - 9M
Ant-Man - 9M

GOTG - 9M
GOTG2 - 10M

They don't really like their a$$holes do they?

 

[whenforeverisnt]

GOTG - 9M
GOTG2 - 10M

They don't really like their a$$holes do they?

Eh... Doctor's Strange is a bigger *****e than Peter Quill and that did well.

 

[StormC]

Language barrier hurts GOTG movies overseas more than anything else.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah I can't imagine Guardians-type jokes translate well at all.

 

[Marvin]

So the question after the weekend is...

Could Wonder Woman end up making more money that Spider-man Homecoming?

Real question is will decu fans be obnoxious about a less lesser name brand outdoing a monster brand(domestically) as we all the talk last year. I would hope not. But fans these days...

WW will lose a lot of theaters the week of Dunkirk and Valerian.

It will still maintain most theaters this week

Like in 2013 pretty much around this time, WB started cutting into it's own MOS theaters and numbers with it's own release of Pacific rim. I don't imagine Dunkirk will take any 3D screens though given it's nolan.