Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[samsnee]

shrug

Isaacs lines in the teaser gave me shivers. But, given the outcries for some modulation to his voice, I understand I may not be the majority.

But, as much as I enjoy Apocalypse, he isn't exactly a deep villain.

No he's not. He's pretty generic and boring. Hopefully they give him a little more complexity than the comics.

 

[psylockolussus]

If this movie reaches a billion dollars, I can see Storm movie coming sooner.

And if it doesn't, what would be your reaction?

I think you already made your point multiple times that you think it would earn a billion dollars.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Now that the final trailer has dropped, I'm feeling a bit more optimistic. Up until now I thought the marketing was pretty meh; it is similar to how I disliked much of the BvS promotional stuff but was impressed by the final trailer.

I wonder how much XMA cost. DoFP was very successful but its budget held back the profits a bit (which Deadline guestimated at ~$77M when all cost/revenue streams are factored in). As long as the budget isn't much past $200M I think it will be acceptably profitable to Fox (although in comparison to Deadpool they might be a little less satisfied).

 

[Gerontophobe]

My prediction for XMA is for it to slightly improve upon DoFP numbers. Domestically, I think XMA will open to $100M three-day (versus $90.8M for DoFP) with similar legs for $260M DOM. Basically I think the goodwill from DoFP will be good for a bump, but that the marketing (and thus the plot they’ve been selling) isn’t as strong. Also, the absence of most of the original cast doesn’t help.

Internationally, I think things are a little less rosy. DoFP was very well received so normally I would expect some international growth. However, a strong US dollar means relative deflation for international currencies; if XMA sells the same number of tickets as DoFP it should do around $435M overseas (compared to $514M for DoFP). I think it will beat this (because of China), finishing around $500M foreign. Added all together, my prediction is for Apocalypse to gross $760M WW, about in line with Days of Future Past.

 

[psylockolussus]

The budget? Maybe $180M to $220M?

 

[Gerontophobe]

The budget? Maybe $180M to $220M?

I'm hoping they kept costs under control and ended up about the same as DoFP ($200M). The cast is probably cheaper but there seem to be more large set pieces which adds a lot of pricey CGI.

 

[psylockolussus]

And they had time management issues for the visual effects so that would mean more budget increase.

 

[CaptainCanada]

The cast is probably cheaper but there seem to be more large set pieces which adds a lot of pricey CGI.

Significantly cheaper, I should think. Hugh in a cameo rather than lead role alone probably shaved eight figures off the budget.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Empire Magazine says Apocalypse was made at $250 million dollars.

BTW, whoever said to me on this forum that Apocalypse won't make a billion unless it has Wolverine may want to now consider having this possible to now make a billion worldwide.

 

[MadVillainy]

Empire Magazine says Apocalypse was made at $250 million dollars.

BTW, whoever said to me on this forum that Apocalypse won't make a billion unless it has Wolverine may want to now consider having this possible to now make a billion worldwide.

Jesus that's stupid...

 

[Bruce Malone]

Jesus that's stupid...

250 million seems to be the new 200 million now with regards to the big blockbusters.

I remember when some people thought 185 million was too much in term of what The Dark Knight cost to make.

 

[Sithborg]

Still not going to hit a billion. June is going to be such a freakin meat grinder this year.

 

[MadVillainy]

250 million seems to be the new 200 million now with regards to the big blockbusters.

I remember when some people thought 185 million was too much in term of what The Dark Knight cost to make.

Well it's not even the price itself to me...

Wasn't there a rumor/report that DOFP didn't make as much as they wanted? And that had Wolverine/Jackman in the lead with the novelty of the old cast.

So DOFP, allegedly, didn't go how they wanted so instead they put even more money into the next go round?

That logic just doesn't make sense to me. But hey it's Hollywood.

Still not going to hit a billion. June is going to be such a freakin meat grinder this year.

This won't make a billion.

I really don't see how people think it can.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Well it's not even the price itself to me...

Wasn't there a rumor/report that DOFP didn't make as much as they wanted? And that had Wolverine/Jackman in the lead with the novelty of the old cast.

So DOFP, allegedly, didn't go how they wanted so instead they put even more money into the next go round?

That logic just doesn't make sense to me. But hey it's Hollywood.



This won't make a billion.

I really don't see how people think it can.

The logic for a lot of studio execs seem to be if something didn't go as planned last time just throw more money at it the next time.

I heard Fox was actually pleased with DOFP though? It was (prior to Deadpool) by far the highest grossing X-Men film at least WW.

They seemed to fast-track Apocalypse to capitalize on that.

 

[Mad Ones]

Well it's not even the price itself to me...

Wasn't there a rumor/report that DOFP didn't make as much as they wanted? And that had Wolverine/Jackman in the lead with the novelty of the old cast.

So DOFP, allegedly, didn't go how they wanted so instead they put even more money into the next go round?

That logic just doesn't make sense to me. But hey it's Hollywood.

Obviously DOFP did as much as Fox wanted if they're investing that much into this one.

 

[MadVillainy]

The logic for a lot of studio execs seem to be if something didn't go as planned last time just throw more money at it the next time.

I heard Fox was actually pleased with DOFP though? It was (prior to Deadpool) by far the highest grossing X-Men film at least WW.

They seemed to fast-track Apocalypse to capitalize on that.

Idk Im just going off something I read in a report. I think in THR

But either way, I still think spending $250 mill is a stupid number to spend on this

 

[Gerontophobe]

Idk Im just going off something I read in a report. I think in THR

But either way, I still think spending $250 mill is a stupid number to spend on this

If that number is accurate, Fox really screwed up. I mean, a $250M production budget with a (presumably) large marking push would put the breakeven point at $700-800M.

 

[2kt09]

But either way, I still think spending $250 mill is a stupid number to spend on this

How so?

And at what point did this marketing push get (presumably) large?
They've been doing the modest amount of actual trailers and clips with some sponsored ads (that sky fibre one would probably cost the most).

 

[Superhero 101]

I don't see this making a billion but I think it will definitely be somewhere between the 700-800 range

 

[MadVillainy]

How so?

Geron pretty much said it:

If that number is accurate, Fox really screwed up. I mean, a $250M production budget with a (presumably) large marking push would put the breakeven point at $700-800M.

And I just don't see this making it to 800 M and the only reason or even far past 700 M

 

[Logan0327]

people always complain xmen films are too small in scale or lack action and when they do it now we are bashing them lol

 

[2kt09]

I mean it's the pricepoint of an Avengers/TDKR/Spider-man 3 AND is capping off a trilogy in which its sequel made a ton, why shouldn't this be 250m?

 

[MadVillainy]

people always complain xmen films are too small in scale or lack action and when they do it now we are bashing them lol

I don't think anyone is bashing the scale.

I like the destruction level scale. I'm just saying it might have not been a smart move financially.

The movie will still be good, but I don't think it was smart to spend all of that money

I mean it's the pricepoint of an Avengers/TDKR/Spider-man 3, why shouldn't this be 250m?

You really can't compare this to Avengers (especially) or TDKR in that sense

 

[Donner]

I don't see this making a billion but I think it will definitely be somewhere between the 700-800 range

Me too.

But is that enough for Fox to consider it a success?

 

[Bruce Malone]

If that number is accurate, Fox really screwed up. I mean, a $250M production budget with a (presumably) large marking push would put the breakeven point at $700-800M.

Depends on what they spent on marketing.

BvS cost 250 million as well but due to how much WB spent on marketing the thing the break even point was reported as about 850 million or so.

Either way I do think Fox was happy with DOFP. They wouldn't have jumped right into Apocalypse so fast if they weren't. At the least they probably saw it as heading into the right direction for the franchise.