Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JKKS085]

Pratt responsible for the biggest box office surprise of this year and last year. Are we sure he didn't get a cameo in the Chinese version of F7? t:

True that. I think that no matter what their plan was so far, Pratt's Star Lord is going to be in IW1 (and 2 obviously). Unless they think they can afford a so so performance from IW1 and that they'd better keep all they've got for IW2.

 

[Spiderdevil]

rdj?

If 'The Judge' proved anything, it showed that RDJ isn't the box-office draw most thought he is, his box-office successes in the past few years are mostly due to the the 5 Marvel movies he did

While Pratt has been in three different franchises (Jurassic World, GoTG and The Lego movie) in the past three years and all three have arguably done double their expectations

 

[Spiderdevil]

I think there is a good portion of people, both on the thread and outside, that find that AOU's numbers qualifie as a disappointment. This is not exactly an unpopular opinion.

Even though it may be useful to keep in mind that most studios' head would probably consider a deal with the devil for these numbers. And that the MS folks are probably crying on their way to the bank for loosing the ow recording and not winning the summer.

The problem isn't over with AoU, if we learned one thing from the 5 Spider-man movies, its that it takes great effort to keep the domestic box-office on the rise once you have achieved a bench mark, AoU already did 33% less than its predecessor, and the budget was 280M compared to TA's 220M

So the budget isn't going to fall with CW and IW 1 and 2, with actors salary rises, the quest for bigger CGI set pieces, more cast etc, that coupled with falling box-office returns can be toxic (even though IWs shooting back to back would save some money)

I think 'Civil War' would be the acid test for the franchise, if it does 1.3B plus, then Marvel can sit back with IWs, if lesser...Marvel would then need to focus on smaller properties

 

[Dark Raven]

If 'The Judge' proved anything, it showed that RDJ isn't the box-office draw most thought he is, his box-office successes in the past few years are mostly due to the the 5 Marvel movies he did

While Pratt has been in three different franchises (Jurassic World, GoTG and The Lego movie) in the past three years and all three have arguably done double their expectations

The Judge isn't really the same kind of movie as JW, GOTG and Lego though, which are all franchise movies. It doesn't have that same mainstream appeal.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If 'The Judge' proved anything, it showed that RDJ isn't the box-office draw most thought he is, his box-office successes in the past few years are mostly due to the the 5 Marvel movies he did

While Pratt has been in three different franchises (Jurassic World, GoTG and The Lego movie) in the past three years and all three have arguably done double their expectations

Pratt either has a magic touch or the man is really. really lucky.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The Judge isn't really the same kind of movie as JW, GOTG and Lego though, which are all franchise movies. It doesn't have that same mainstream appeal.

But the Pratt films doubled their expected gross which is an amazing feat.

The question is would it have happened with any other decent actor?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The problem isn't over with AoU, if we learned one thing from the 5 Spider-man movies, its that it takes great effort to keep the domestic box-office on the rise once you have achieved a bench mark, AoU already did 33% less than its predecessor, and the budget was 280M compared to TA's 220M

So the budget isn't going to fall with CW and IW 1 and 2, with actors salary rises, the quest for bigger CGI set pieces, more cast etc, that coupled with falling box-office returns can be toxic (even though IWs shooting back to back would save some money)

I think 'Civil War' would be the acid test for the franchise, if it does 1.3B plus, then Marvel can sit back with IWs, if lesser...Marvel would then need to focus on smaller properties

Civil War and BvS is going to be the litmus test for superhero movies in general.

People have already suggested that the first Avengers was the peak of the genre.because AOU dissppointed some at the box office.

 

[InCali]

The Judge isn't really the same kind of movie as JW, GOTG and Lego though, which are all franchise movies. It doesn't have that same mainstream appeal.

100% absolutely, positively, etc.....true. Pratt was terrific in Moneyball. I think it made about 75M? I guess Brad Pitt isn't much of a draw either. Fury did a little better, but still fell well short of 100M. Different movies are just going to draw differently. If Pratt were to make a movie along the same lines as The Judge, it wouldn't come anywhere close to JW or GotG numbers. The 2 Sherlock Holmes movies did just fine with RDJ (about $400M Domestic) and that's exactly the kind of movies that draw big #s (if they are well done).

I absolutely love Chris Pratt and wish him nothing but the best, but NO ONE draws huge numbers with The Judge type of movies. There are, of course, exceptions. Sometimes a movie, any type of movie, just clicks with people and it takes off. That's the exception rather than the rule and isn't actor dependent. We should be careful with our "This happened and therefore.....".

 

[InCali]

Pratt either has a magic touch or the man is really. really lucky.

He's hot right now and deservedly so. And, yes, there's some luck involved. JW could have done very well with an actor other than Chris, but I saw it and thought, as the kid said, "Your boyfriend is a badass".

 

[InCali]

The problem isn't over with AoU, if we learned one thing from the 5 Spider-man movies, its that it takes great effort to keep the domestic box-office on the rise once you have achieved a bench mark, AoU already did 33% less than its predecessor, and the budget was 280M compared to TA's 220M

So the budget isn't going to fall with CW and IW 1 and 2, with actors salary rises, the quest for bigger CGI set pieces, more cast etc, that coupled with falling box-office returns can be toxic (even though IWs shooting back to back would save some money)

I think 'Civil War' would be the acid test for the franchise, if it does 1.3B plus, then Marvel can sit back with IWs, if lesser...Marvel would then need to focus on smaller properties

My strategy, and I think this is what Marvel is doing, would be to focus on "smaller" properties leading up to IW. Movies like GotG, Dr. Strange, Captain Marvel, Inhumans, Black Panther, Ant-Man.....who am I forgetting??? I think at least a couple of those movies are going to hit it big. While I'm a huge fan of CM and would love to see it kick, I personally think Dr. Strange has the best chance. Then you assemble that group a la the first Avengers movie. Build from the bottom up.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

He's hot right now and deservedly so. And, yes, there's some luck involved. JW could have done very well with an actor other than Chris, but I saw it and thought, as the kid said, "Your boyfriend is a badass".

Pratt's charisma is good part of the reason GOTG was a break out hit and I'm sure quite of few GOTG fans went to see Jurassic World because of Pratt.

 

[Leenie]

Wow, kudos to Jurassic World for having the biggest opening of all time! I heard it on the radio yesterday while driving, and I said "Holy s***!" out loud.

I haven't seen Jurassic World yet (though I've heard from all of my friends that it's a lot of fun), but it's nice to see that dinosaurs are still popular among the kids. It's also awesome that Chris Pratt is associated with such box office successes. Those rumors about him possibly being the next Indiana Jones? I'm pretty sure those rumors will become truth very, very soon.

 

[InCali]

Pratt's charisma is good part of the reason GOTG was a break out hit and I'm sure quite of few GOTG fans went to see Jurassic World because of Pratt.

Agreed. Although the entire cast of GotG was just awesome. Zoe, Bradley, Vin AND DAVE. Great, great on screen chemistry, great script, terrific cinematograpy, and great music throughout. One of the truly fun movies ever. If GotG2 can even come close, we're all in for a real treat.

I have to say I'm floored that JW had a $208+M weekend. I didn't see that train coming. I saw the 10AM Friday matinee show at the TCL Chinese Theater in Hollywood and it was pretty dang crowded. That's very unusual for the Friday AM showing. JW, IMO, was helped by the fact that school was out. There were a ton of school aged people which just doesn't happen for an early May release. I'm not trying to downplay the significance or success of JW's numbers, but I feel pretty sure a May release (a la Avengers) would have cut into the box office.

Hat's off to everyone associated with JW....Chris Pratt really is a bad ass boyfriend.....and his GIRLFRIEND is pretty bad ass too. I was very pleasantly surprised by Bryce's performance.

 

[Vincanws]

If 'The Judge' proved anything, it showed that RDJ isn't the box-office draw most thought he is, his box-office successes in the past few years are mostly due to the the 5 Marvel movies he did

While Pratt has been in three different franchises (Jurassic World, GoTG and The Lego movie) in the past three years and all three have arguably done double their expectations

The Lego movie is a bit of a stretch. Nobody knew Chris Pratt, he was just another voice in an animated movie.

Downey also saw success with the Sherlock movies but granted, and he hasn't done a whole lot else 'other' than Sherlock and Iron Man since about 2006.

 

[Iceman]

I give Pratt a massive part of the credit for GotG's gross, a considerably smaller part of the credit for JW's gross (the dinos get 90%) and an insignificant part of the credit for the Lego movie's gross.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

People don't go see animated movies for the voice actors, I never give actors credit for the success of animated movies. GOTG and JW do firmly place Pratt on the A-list though.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Kevin Feige has tweeted this amazing picture, congratulating the cast and crew of Jurassic World on their record breaking opening weekend.

https://www.facebook.com/MarvelCine....1434477548./1146658608684043/?type=3&theater

 

[InCali]

I give Pratt a massive part of the credit for GotG's gross, a considerably smaller part of the credit for JW's gross (the dinos get 90%) and an insignificant part of the credit for the Lego movie's gross.

For me "massive" might be overstating it somewhat, but he certainly deserves a LOT of credit. Normally, I'd completely agree with you, but the other GotG characters were SO good and they worked so well together, that I find it hard to create a ton of separation between them (though Pratt was certainly the centerpiece). I think of The Avengers similarly. I think RDJ has a certain on screen charisma that can take over a scene and think he's probably the most accomplished actor (so far) in MCU, but the other characters fit so well into their roles that I tend to look at them as a group rather than seeing a single standout.

I would certainly go see Pratt in a Indy remake. It seems almost too stereotypical as a casting choice, but George Lucas or Spielberg or someone else closely involved in the movie (can't remember for sure who) initially said the same thing about Harrison Ford. That sorta worked out okay.......

 

[Iceman]

Aweseome pic/tweet above from Feige (as I said in the other thread).

Jurassic World has just gone and done a $25m Monday. JW might be on course for beating Avengers' overall gross although we'll know the chances after seeing how it holds this weekend. Crazy times!

 

[Iceman]

For me "massive" might be overstating it somewhat, but he certainly deserves a LOT of credit. Normally, I'd completely agree with you, but the other GotG characters were SO good and they worked so well together, that I find it hard to create a ton of separation between them (though Pratt was certainly the centerpiece). I think of The Avengers similarly. I think RDJ has a certain on screen charisma that can take over a scene and think he's probably the most accomplished actor (so far) in MCU, but the other characters fit so well into their roles that I tend to look at them as a group rather than seeing a single standout.

I would certainly go see Pratt in a Indy remake. It seems almost too stereotypical as a casting choice, but George Lucas or Spielberg or someone else closely involved in the movie (can't remember for sure who) initially said the same thing about Harrison Ford. That sorta worked out okay.......

I've never been able to place an actor for Indy. Pratt (before JW) was the first guy who I've thought, yeah he could do it. Everyone involved deserves a tonne of credit for GotG, I'd say Pratt was the single most important contributor being the lead and human.

 

[Dark Raven]

So when is Jurassic World going to break the top 10 list? I see it hasn't even broken the top 50 yet.

Also, it looks like FF7 is going to overtake The Avengers quite soon.

 

[Iceman]

It's only been out 4 days lol. You want it to overtake the entire runs of the likes of Skyfall and the first Hobbit, first Pirates and first Harry Potter (domestically) already? t: Top 10 is $435m so that will take a while, although not all that long if next weekend is an Avengers-like hold.

 

[JB33]

Aweseome pic/tweet above from Feige (as I said in the other thread).

Jurassic World has just gone and done a $25m Monday. JW might be on course for beating Avengers' overall gross although we'll know the chances after seeing how it holds this weekend. Crazy times!

Insane, given Age of Ultron pulled in $13.23 million on its first Monday. Although, even at the time I thought that was weirdly low.

 

[seahammer]

Kevin Feige has tweeted this amazing picture, congratulating the cast and crew of Jurassic World on their record breaking opening weekend.


https://www.facebook.com/MarvelCine....1434477548./1146658608684043/?type=3&theater

Feige is a class act. Well played. Haven't gotten a chance to see JW yet, but I hear it deserves all the praise it's been getting.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Insane, given Age of Ultron pulled in $13.23 million on its first Monday. Although, even at the time I thought that was weirdly low.

You also have to remember that AoU was in May when kids were still in school versus now when everyone is out and on summer break. Plus, I'm sure a lot of it is due to people not getting into showings over the weekend and having to go on Monday instead.