Fantastic Four reborn! - - - - - - - Part 16

[wobbly]

If we go by the formula of roughly double the budget to break even, then if they only spent the rumoured $100mil, anything over $200mil ww will see them into the black.

$200mil ww isn't good at all for a CBM, never mind the FF, but if they have not spent big they don't need huge numbers to see a profit.

I'd guess atm they will likely see a profit. Whether its enough to warrant a sequel remains to be seen.

 

[Dr Tactics]

If we go by the formula of roughly double the budget to break even, then if they only spent the rumoured $100mil, anything over $200mil ww will see them into the black.

$200mil ww isn't good at all for a CBM, never mind the FF, but if they have not spent big they don't need huge numbers to see a profit.

I'd guess atm they will likely see a profit. Whether its enough to warrant a sequel remains to be seen.

It's even more complicated then that. Read and be enlightened.

http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable

 

[wobbly]

It's even more complicated then that. Read and be enlightened.

http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable

I've read that, and others, before (they go into the shenanigans the studios pull to reduce or nullify a profitable films net earnings so they don't have to pay any % deals to anyone on the crew who signed up for that).

The math is indeed a lot more complicated, and given the lack of availability of the true numbers and factors involved (tax breaks, product placement deals etc), nigh on impossible for any of us to state accurately, but in general saying 'double the budget' is the break even target seems to be considered a near enough 'ballpark' guestimate (it does say in that article is is the 'general rule of thumb').

 

[Tony Stark]

If we go by the formula of roughly double the budget to break even, then if they only spent the rumoured $100mil, anything over $200mil ww will see them into the black.

$200mil ww isn't good at all for a CBM, never mind the FF, but if they have not spent big they don't need huge numbers to see a profit.

I'd guess atm they will likely see a profit. Whether its enough to warrant a sequel remains to be seen.

You're being very kind here. Depending on it's international release, it might see 200M WW if their distribution is in tact. ROTSS, made about 157M WW, and we know that foreign box office is a bigger player now than it was then.

However I wasn't kidding when I said this movie will make around 50M domestic or less. I'm predicting a 20-25M opening weekend, with maybe a 2.0-2.2 multiplier.

Look at Chronicle. 127M WW. Slashing the budget also often means slashing the international distribution channels because often times it costs more money to distribute a film in certain countries than they will see back in return.

Not to mention the fact it's going to have the same competition problem in foreign countries that it does here. Monsters University made 475M overseas. Inside Out could very well have that kind of traction, plus Jurassic World and all the other competition it will have to face.

 

[wobbly]

You're being very kind here. Depending on it's international release, it might see 200M WW if their distribution is in tact. ROTSS, made about 157M WW, and we know that foreign box office is a bigger player now than it was then.

However I wasn't kidding when I said this movie will make around 50M domestic or less. I'm predicting a 20-25M opening weekend, with maybe a 2.0-2.2 multiplier.

Look at Chronicle. 127M WW. Slashing the budget also often means slashing the international distribution channels because often times it costs more money to distribute a film in certain countries than they will see back in return.

Not to mention the fact it's going to have the same competition problem in foreign countries that it does here. Monsters University made 475M overseas. Inside Out could very well have that kind of traction, plus Jurassic World and all the other competition it will have to face.

Small correction: ROTSS make $289mil ww on its $130 mil budget. That's a little more than double, but evidently not enough for Fox to have continued the series (marketing costs, not disclosed as if often the case, likely killed any meagre profits there).

And I don't want to be generous, lol Trust me, nothing I know so far about this film makes me want it to do well at all. I'm just hedging my bets on the assumption they may well have low-balled this somewhat. Spend less, needs less of a return for the bean counters to count a profit.

If they have spent a lot on it though I'd agree this is one where it seems likely the bean counters are not gonna enjoy sorting the books out at all.

 

[Dark Raven]

Since Miles Teller makes his duck face so often, I believe he was cast as the wrong character in this movie. Instead, he should've been:

Spoiler

That would allow him to make full use of that expression, and even have a metallic beak for it.

 

[DarthDaveBanner]

They missed a trick in not hiring him to motion capture Howard the Duck in GOTG

 

[Tony Stark]

Small correction: ROTSS make $289mil ww on its $130 mil budget. That's a little more than double, but evidently not enough for Fox to have continued the series (marketing costs, not disclosed as if often the case, likely killed any meagre profits there).

And I don't want to be generous, lol Trust me, nothing I know so far about this film makes me want it to do well at all. I'm just hedging my bets on the assumption they may well have low-balled this somewhat. Spend less, needs less of a return for the bean counters to count a profit.

If they have spent a lot on it though I'd agree this is one where it seems likely the bean counters are not gonna enjoy sorting the books out at all.

Sorry, I meant it made 157 over seas, yes 289 WW.

The budget was probably around 100M, maybe 80M. If the film finishes around 50M domestic, I don't see it making enough WW to make up for the difference. I'm guessing the WW number will be below 200M.

I get what you're saying, but my point was studios release films all the time knowing that they're going to bomb and will take a loss. Again the closest comparison to this film in Jonah Hex (which only had a 47M production budget and still lost money). I expect it will perform a better than Hex, but not by a whole lot.

 

[samsnee]

Was any of this film outdoors or only in a backlot and on green screen? How can it have a "realistic" feel if everything in the background looks CG?

 

[Orba]

Was any of this film outdoors or only in a backlot and on green screen? How can it have a "realistic" feel if everything in the background looks CG?

Maybe two or so scenes from what I can tell. I think there was a scene films outside the "Baxter Institute" and there might have been one filmed at a school football stadium or something.

 

[Majik1387]

Was any of this film outdoors or only in a backlot and on green screen? How can it have a "realistic" feel if everything in the background looks CG?

Well, a lot of the scenes of Sin City was pure green screen and they pulled it off just fine.

 

[Joe Rockhead]

Well, a lot of the scenes of Sin City was pure green screen and they pulled it off just fine.

Sin City was a completely different type of film where realism went out the window for the 'Sin City Comic' experience.

 

[Majik1387]

I'm talking about normal scenes, like the bar, and just outside the tar pit. All green screen, not super-stylized.

 

[Snikt]

I'm hoping this movie blows us out of the water . Who knows. Maybe we'll be surprised.

 

[starscream22]

I'm hoping this movie blows us out of the water . Who knows. Maybe we'll be surprised.

Yeah, I'm sure I'll have other plans.

 

[Snikt]

Yeah, I'm sure I'll have other plans.

Elaborate please

 

[starscream22]

Elaborate please

I'd prefer watching another movie or visiting a theme park or even watching cement dry in the rain over downloading a bootleg copy of this reboot.

 

[Gamma Goliath]

I want to see this movie. I wanted to like that they were going to reboot F4, but they've made some decisions that have me wary. But I'll go see this hoping that its at least good if its not going the F4 I hoped it would be and so I wouldn't have wasted my money and time. But I'm not expecting this movie to be good, I'm not expecting it to succeed. But I will give it the benefit of the doubt.

 

[psylockolussus]

I want to see this movie. I wanted to like that they were going to reboot F4, but they've made some decisions that have me wary. But I'll go see this hoping that its at least good if its not going the F4 I hoped it would be and so I wouldn't have wasted my money and time. But I'm not expecting this movie to be good, I'm not expecting it to succeed. But I will give it the benefit of the doubt.

I feel the same way.

 

[Silliminite]

When's the earliest we are likely to get anything official from this film?

 

[Gamma Goliath]

No one knows really. Youd figure before Christmas at least, but for all we know they could wait to start marketing this till well into next year.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

When's the earliest we are likely to get anything official from this film?

I think the earliest would be NY Comic Con (just over a month from now). When Kinberg was pressed on not having anything for San Diego Comic Con, he hinted we could see something in New York.

If they announce something soon for NY, I may plan to take a drive up there, but I'm not holding my breath.

And if they don't announce it until just before, I will likely have other plans by then.

Realistically, I'm not expecting anything until next year, and even then I'm not expecting much.

 

[Silliminite]

No one knows really. Youd figure before Christmas at least, but for all we know they could wait to start marketing this till well into next year.

I think the earliest would be NY Comic Con (just over a month from now). When Kinberg was pressed on not having anything for San Diego Comic Con, he hinted we could see something in New York.

If they announce something soon for NY, I may plan to take a drive up there, but I'm not holding my breath.

And if they don't announce it until just before, I will likely have other plans by then.

Realistically, I'm not expecting anything until next year, and even then I'm not expecting much.

Interesting stuff guys. Much appreciated.
I wasn't aware of Kinberg having hinted about showing something at NYCC. Let's see if that pans out. Extremely curious how this film is going to turn out.

 

[Dark Raven]

I think the earliest would be NY Comic Con (just over a month from now). When Kinberg was pressed on not having anything for San Diego Comic Con, he hinted we could see something in New York.

If they announce something soon for NY, I may plan to take a drive up there, but I'm not holding my breath.

And if they don't announce it until just before, I will likely have other plans by then.

Realistically, I'm not expecting anything until next year, and even then I'm not expecting much.

You'll drive all the way up there and they'll announce that....

Spoiler

The movie is called "The Fantastic Four."

 

[Donut]

You'll drive all the way up there and they'll announce that....

Spoiler

The movie is called "The Fantastic Four."

Would he be mad if all they did was announce the title ?