Discussion in 'Marvel Films' started by Thread Manager, Aug 2, 2013.
This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]449907[/split]
This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]391015[/split]
The first FF movie sold more tickets than Thor and Captain America in the states, it just didn't make as much because ticket prices were lower in 2005 and it didn't have expensive 3D tickets to help it out. My point is that obviously there is a market for an F4 movie, add in the expanding international market and there is an even bigger market. They should keep the budget down though because reboots so close to the original have a limit on how much they can make if they aren't Spider-Man related. It's going to take at least 140-150mil to do it right though.
So the FF will presumably be discovering the Negative Zone and that's how they'll get their powers.
The difference between now and when the original Fantastic Four films came out, is that the market is starting to become saturated. Not just with superhero films, but big action tent poles.
The not great first two films could fly when they did. Now they have to compete with the most amazing looking films we have ever seen. The movie comes out 2015.
Star Wars Episode VII
Age of Ultron
Superman vs. Batman
Pirates of the Caribbean 5
Ant-Man (by Edgar Wright)
Even if it comes out first, I can't see it comparing and holding up.
It will be fine it has a March 6, 2015 date that doesn't even make it an official Summer movie tentpole.
I don't see this one doing big numbers at all yet.
Elizabeth Olsen as a young Sue is solid casting though Hope thats true.
I would release it the next week when many colleges and public schools are out for Spring Break and looking for something to do. Then again, opening the week before that hopefully means it will have a solid second week as well without much of a drop off.
I agree, but that 140-150 million cannot include anything post production or it is not enough IMO.
How many movies have made great money in March? The Hunger Games, and that was domestic only. Anything else?
Yeah, going to have to bring the Fantastic, and you can't do that on a small budget. The Silver Surfer budget was $130m back in 2007.
Fast and Furious 5 I think too, and just this year GI Retation, Oz the great and powerful and the Croods all crushed it in March. SO........ yeah big box office numbers happen in March too.
Major props to mercureyx for calling this casting months ago. Dude's definitely connencted.
Me too. Not thrilled over them going the Ultimate route and making the team college-aged, but I love Elizabeth Olsen. She'd make a fantastic young Sue Storm.
I don't remember exactly what I said, but I don't remember saying it was going to bomb. I just don't think with the FF characters alone, that they can establish a Franchise.
Fast 5 came out April 29th.
GI Retaliation came out March 28. Croods came out March 22. Oz came out Feb 14.
Now the Croods did do good money, though it is an animated family film, so it is going to do that as long as it gets some traction. GI did not do great numbers. It did solid for its budget, but it didn't even make it to $400m worldwide (ended on $371m). Even if I give you Oz, it started good and then completely died in March. On track early to make well over $500m, it didn't even make to $500m.
Josh Trank says the casting isn't true. https://twitter.com/josh_trank/status/363417723801309184
I don't think that is his official twitter. It doesn't have the "blue check" showing that it has been authenticated....
It's going to take about $200 million to do it right, and there's zero chance the film is going to generate sufficient ticket sales to justify that budget. The last film cost $130 million and it looked absolutely terrible, especially in how it depicted Reed's powers. The FF is a very expensive team to put onscreen, even more than The Avengers, due to the heavy CGI required to show all four characters. Add an all CGI Thing, the Negative Zone and Annihilus and a green though talented director, and the budget could explode.
In terms of the box office - in a best case scenario the reboot of a much maligned series could be competitive with the last two FOX X-Men films, both of which disappointed at the box office. With the high cost, the lack of tie-in merchandise sales (Disney isn't going to move Avengers product off he shelves to make room for stretchable Mr. Fantastics) and the tough release date, this thing is a money loser as soon as they start filming.
You are probably correct, it will most likely cost the standard 175+mil.
I'm half expecting them to cancell the movie actually. They are supposed to be filming it soon and things are this quiet. I expect a cancellation or delay.
Why do you have to ruin my hopes?
I pray that happens. I want Galactus and the Silver Surfer in cosmic play in the MCU.
Here's a list of other movies that did good to fantastic business in March.
300 - March 9, 2007
The Lorax - March 2, 2012
Alice in Wonderland - March 5, 2010
Oz: The Great & Powerful - March 8, 2013
G.I. Joe: Retaliation - March 28, 2013
How to Train Your Dragon - March 26, 2010
The Croods - March 22, 2013
So there is precedence for March blockbusters. Although some late March movies made most of their money in April...
The big blockbusters in March sometimes have a steep drop-off the second weekend, but they stabilize in the third and fourth weekends. (Sometimes, they're small but the usual drops are 50% or more.) Animated films don't have that problem, as the drops are a lot smaller.
Outside of Alice, none of those clear $600m WW. Only the Croods also cleared $500m worldwide.
So basically you have a bunch of family (mostly animated) films and 300. None of which meet the profile of a FF film. If we are talking GI Joe numbers, the budget for the FF would have to be under $150m for even a chance at profit at the back end.
I just hope we either get some solid information from Fox or a deal to get the rights to Marvel soon. These rumors are awful - each one worse than the one before.
Josh Trank is probably the only thing about this film that I even remotely like.
Josh Trank is probably the reason why these bad rumors even exist at this point