Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[ban1o]

Even Superman Returns made more than Fast and Furious 6 once you adjust SR gross for inflation and 3D.

and I think MOS will destroy SR in ticket sales.

Fast and furious 6 wasn't in 3d. LOL just saying. I think FF6 is heading for around 240 million which I think is what SR adjusts too.

Well anyway, you're right with the fact that MOS will destroy that. I'm expecting 330 million.

 

[db85usa]

You’re getting confused here. Iron Man 3 only has one previous film that has a predecessor (Iron Man 2) and that didn’t see a big increase on the 1st film, and actually a decrease domestically. I’m not sure whether you’re focusing on domestic or international but it’s wrong either way:

Iron Man: $318 domestic $585m worldwide
Iron Man 2: $312m domestic $624m worldwide
Iron Man 3 (so far): $390m domestic $1.18B worldwide

The 1st 2 films have similar numbers while IM3 blows them away completely. RDJ’s great performances have been a constant throughout all the films while the Avengers link has paid off big style between IM2 & 3.

When I talk about the potential of event films I’m saying it’s easier to create a big event with an ensemble cast of heroes…I don’t mean only comic superheroes. By that I include the likes of the Star Wars & LOTR main group of ally characters as opposed to a film title naming one individual like Batman, Superman or James Bond. So I agree on the point of it being about the chemistry of the team of actors but I believe an ally team has a higher top end than a film mainly about any one lead character.

I disagree on the last point re DKR & Avengers. That event I’m sure had a significant impact on US figures but it didn’t do much to the overseas number & noone’s even claimed an overseas effect as far as I’ve seen. Are you saying DKR could have done an extra $430m domestically if it hadn't happened?

Tracking for TDKR was in upwards of $185-$200 million prior to the event. Without 3d mind you, that's pretty incredible. Box Office projected I believe $215 Million one day prior to the opening day. A lot of people were issued refunds on tickets or canceled preorders. Fandango had TDKR tracking higher than any movie. Higher than The Avengers. Hell, the movie was rumored at one point to be re-released in December.

But seriously, we could start a massive argument all over again. It is what it is. As far as the movie itself goes, not having a villain such as Joker I believe is what hurt Rises more than anything. Rises was riding on the success of The Dark Knight.

 

[Superhero 101]

I have a strong feeling this will make 900 million ww because I have a theory that since the trailer for mos has about 34 million youtube hits. and Im3 trailers has about 50 million hits and since that movie went on to make more than a billion. The mos trailer isn't that far off from im3's so I think that this movie has the potential of really hitting a billion or coming really close to it.

 

[db85usa]

I have a strong feeling this will make 900 million ww because I have a theory that since the trailer for mos has about 34 million youtube hits. and Im3 trailers has about 50 million hits and since that movie went on to make more than a billion. The mos trailer isn't that far off from im3's so I think that this movie has the potential of really hitting a billion or coming really close to it.

FWIW BoxOffice.com trailer views currently has MoS @ 122 Million. I believe IM3 was at 158 Million before it's release. I think the lack of marketing was a big mistake for WB because the last 2-3 weeks the movie has finally picked up some serious steam. We'll see if that translates into a good BO run.

 

[Poeman]

FWIW BoxOffice.com trailer views currently has MoS @ 122 Million. I believe IM3 was at 158 Million before it's release. I think the lack of marketing was a big mistake for WB because the last 2-3 weeks the movie has finally picked up some serious steam. We'll see if that translates into a good BO run.

Its not a big deal...Word of mouth will ring this baby further then Iron man 3, which slacked off tremendously because it was not all that good.

 

[The Caped Knight]

I hope MOS has a Super opening debut this weekend.

 

[db85usa]

Its not a big deal...Word of mouth will ring this baby further then Iron man 3, which slacked off tremendously because it was not all that good.

I know it just goes to show how quickly Man of Steel has risen up in popularity in such short time.

 

[db85usa]

BoxOffice.com has upped their Opening Weekend Prediction to $115 Million and a Domestic Cumulation of $357 Million.

I just feel that since we're in the $100 million range as far as OW tracking goes, it will gross higher than expected. IMO the GA is definitely ready for Superman to soar.

 

[Poeman]

BoxOffice.com has upped their Opening Weekend Prediction to $115 Million and a Domestic Cumulation of $357 Million.

I GOT THIS!

 

[db85usa]

I GOT THIS!

I never get tired of this pic! So bad ass.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

BoxOffice.com has upped their Opening Weekend Prediction to $115 Million and a Domestic Cumulation of $357 Million.

I just feel that since we're in the $100 million range as far as OW tracking goes, it will gross higher than expected. IMO the GA is definitely ready for Superman to soar.

At this point, MOS is damn near a lock for a $100+ million opening weekend. The GA are ready for another Superman film.

 

[db85usa]

At this point, MOS is damn near a lock for a $100+ million opening weekend. The GA are ready for another Superman film.

I agree. $100 Million is a lock. But I think with 3D and IMAX, this thing pushes to $130+ Million. Not just another Superman film but the one they need right now.

 

[craigdbfan]

We believe in you Superman!

 

[TheNextNolan22]

We believe in you Superman!

We will believe a man can fly....again.
God that sounded so lame.

 

[J.Howlett]

I've changed my mind. With IMAX, IMAX 3D, and Digital 3D and the heat that the marketing materials have been generating for the last month, this thing is going to hit 150 million on it's opening weekend.

I'm just sensing something massive here for Superman this opening weekend. I'm not even thinking about what the international grosses might be this weekend as well.

Still, my gut is feeling that 150 million opening weekend.

 

[db85usa]

I've changed my mind. With IMAX, IMAX 3D, and Digital 3D and the heat that the marketing materials have been generating for the last month, this thing is going to hit 150 million on it's opening weekend.

I'm just sensing something massive here for Superman this opening weekend. I'm not even thinking about what the international grosses might be this weekend as well.

Still, my gut is feeling that 150 million opening weekend.

It is certainly possible that MoS can gross that much during it's OW. I mean, practically the entire team behind "The Dark Knight" trilogy is marketed all over the place to attract those people who saw those films. And this is Superman and with all the rumors of a Batman/Superman film or Justice League... this thing might just explode like an atom bomb.

 

[db85usa]

Universal is practically guaranteeing MoS will gross north of $100 million for its OW. Obviously rival studios will say that because if it grosses less, they can state that it was a failure. The bright side to that is if it were to open at such an amount ($85 Million) is that the film could possibly have a 4x multiplier with good WOM. Either way, WB and rival studios expect this movie to land anywhere between $300-$350 million domestically at the end of its run. The foreign figures -- I don't think anyone has a clue how that will turn out. We could maybe see TDKR type foreign numbers such as $500-$600 foreign. Who knows.

Most will say MoS won't pull in a high amount overseas due to the character being so American. I don't buy it. Once again, people need to forget about Superman Returns. How many films do we have as a basis to such an argument as popularity overseas? SR was a disappointing film, yes but this needs to be forgotten and will be soon. MoS is being pushed aggressively as a totally different movie and a Superman we have never seen. The GA is going to eat this up.

With the state of the world (shootings, earthquakes, murders, natural disasters, corruption) people will likely turn to Man of Steel as a get away from everything. That's what people do when they see movies anyway. So -- this could result in a record breaking turn out.

 

[J.Howlett]

Universal is practically guaranteeing MoS will gross north of $100 million for its OW. Obviously rival studios will say that because if it grosses less, they can state that it was a failure. The bright side to that is if it were to open at such an amount ($85 Million) is that the film could possibly have a 4x multiplier with good WOM. Either way, WB and rival studios expect this movie to land anywhere between $300-$350 million domestically at the end of its run. The foreign figures -- I don't think anyone has a clue how that will turn out. We could maybe see TDKR type foreign numbers such as $500-$600 foreign. Who knows.

Most will say MoS won't pull in a high amount overseas due to the character being so American. I don't buy it. Once again, people need to forget about Superman Returns. How many films do we have as a basis to such an argument as popularity overseas? SR was a disappointing film, yes but this needs to be forgotten and will be soon. MoS is being pushed aggressively as a totally different movie and a Superman we have never seen. The GA is going to eat this up.

With the state of the world (shootings, earthquakes, murders, natural disasters, corruption) people will likely turn to Man of Steel as a get away from everything. That's what people do when they see movies anyway. So -- this could result in a record breaking turn out.

All of this.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Universal is practically guaranteeing MoS will gross north of $100 million for its OW. Obviously rival studios will say that because if it grosses less, they can state that it was a failure. The bright side to that is if it were to open at such an amount ($85 Million) is that the film could possibly have a 4x multiplier with good WOM. Either way, WB and rival studios expect this movie to land anywhere between $300-$350 million domestically at the end of its run. The foreign figures -- I don't think anyone has a clue how that will turn out. We could maybe see TDKR type foreign numbers such as $500-$600 foreign. Who knows.

Most will say MoS won't pull in a high amount overseas due to the character being so American. I don't buy it. Once again, people need to forget about Superman Returns. How many films do we have as a basis to such an argument as popularity overseas? SR was a disappointing film, yes but this needs to be forgotten and will be soon. MoS is being pushed aggressively as a totally different movie and a Superman we have never seen. The GA is going to eat this up.

With the state of the world (shootings, earthquakes, murders, natural disasters, corruption) people will likely turn to Man of Steel as a get away from everything. That's what people do when they see movies anyway. So -- this could result in a record breaking turn out.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

With the state of the world (shootings, earthquakes, murders, natural disasters, corruption) people will likely turn to Man of Steel as a get away from everything. That's what people do when they see movies anyway. So -- this could result in a record breaking turn out.

When aren't those things happening?

 

[db85usa]

When aren't those things happening?

Exactly but since MoS is being marketed as a story of Hope, people tend to cling to that. There have been far too many dark and bleak movies these days it gets kind of old. People want to see something new/different. I think MoS brings all of that to the table. We'll just have to wait and see how the GA responds. Either way, right or wrong, this movie will easily surpass the failure that was Superman Returns. The pressure on this movie to overperform is insane. The entire future of DC/Characters/World's Finest/Justice League, pretty much all falls on Man of Steel and I think the GA is somewhat aware of this.

 

[Micromind]

When aren't those things happening?

It is clear now that in US, OW will be around 100 mil. I am not quite sure how MOS will do overseas.

Your avvy is great, I still like some parts of SR.

 

[db85usa]

Forbes is also stating that based on advanced ticket sales and attendance polling figures, MoS will likely reach a tracking amount of $120 million by the middle of this week. They think MoS can garner $600 million foreign along with $300 million domestic. I believe most tracking companies and experts will have $120-$125 million projections for the OW. I strongly believe BoxOffice.com will have a $125 Million projection before MoS opens.

I have said that I do this stuff for a living and it is sort of for a "middle of the pack" studio in the east coast. I periodically follow pollings on how likely people are to see certain films, ticket sales, merchandising, online activity. I'm tasked with Man of Steel and to follow how well it is being received publicly. So far, the film has received positive feedback. It is on people's must see list. The partners this movie has aligned with is incredible. The marketing blitz of Man of Steel has been very, very good and aggressive. The GA has picked up on this and is quickly picking up interest every day. My full opinion is that this film, without a doubt; it is going to be a smash hit.

You guys can flame me, criticize me, laugh, whatever. I'm just doing what I'm tasked to do. I've been wrong before, I'm not perfect. Nobody is. But I'll be damned if this movie opens with just $75 million (equal to Superman Returns adjusted for inflation.)

 

[Astrodust]

100 million opening weekend would be great and MoS has a real shot of hitting it. Milestones like that get people to take notice and bring in more audience. MoS isn't sold out yet at my local theaters but it probably will once you factor in walk-in traffic. I'm predicting 117 million for the 5 day weekend including midnights.

 

[GreenKToo]

120 ow
335/50 dom
375/400 overseas