The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[jmc]

They're releasing it early here because it coincides with our school holidays which is more of a business move.

 

[Chewy]

I'm not really knowledgeable about foreign grosses. Avengers has what? 10 days of release overseas before its U.S. release right? So how much do you guys think the film will gross before may 4th? Would it be unrealistic to expect at least 100 million in grosses before May 4th?

No. It should definitely make at least 100M before May 4th.

Outside of the US, John Carter flopped everywhere but Russia and still made 70M in 3 days.

 

[hatebox]

Marvel films have never been massive overseas, but they were smart to make the last trailer look more like a disaster movie with superheroes than a Marvel team up film. It'll help in Asia, as will the 3D.

I'd still be surprised if it scored more than $500m internationally though.

 

[TheGambler]

This should have some sort of relevance:

‘Marvel’s The Avengers’ Marathon Event Sells Out AMC Theatres One Month Ahead

AMC Theatres made the announcement today and is adding more shows at participating locations. The May 3rd event will feature 6 Marvel movies including the May 4th midnight release of Marvel’s The Avengers in RealD 3D. Price is $40 for the marathon of movies, an event lanyard, and maybe a pair of limited-edition Avenger character RealD 3D glasses if supplies last.

The advance tickets for what’s billed as ’The Ultimate Marvel Marathon’ sold out at 10 AMC locations across the country a month ahead of the event: AMC Empire 25, New York AMC Downtown Disney 24, Orlando AMC Sunset Place 24, Miami AMC Downtown Disney 12, Los Angeles AMC Burbank 16, Los Angeles AMC Ontario Mills 30, Los Angeles AMC Loews Boston Common 19, Boston AMC Garden State 16, New Jersey AMC Loews Metreon 16, San Francisco AMC Courtney Park 16, Toronto. The 6 Marvel movies which begin playing at 11:30 AM are (in order): Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, Iron Man 2, Thor (presented in RealD 3D), Captain America: The First Avenger (presented in RealD 3D), and Marvel’s The Avengers. AMC operates 347 theatres with 5,048 screens across the United States and Canada.

 

[T"Challa]

I'm a bit surprised really..i didnt think people would be lining up to sit in a theatre for close to 10 straight hrs of movies prior to a midnight showing of another one..ah well, this can only mean good things

 

[Iceman]

Does that $40 all count to Avengers' box office or will it be split up?

 

[mclay18]

Does that $40 all count to Avengers' box office or will it be split up?

Most likely split. It's a very good deal for six movies (including three 3D films). This film and a few select others will definitely overperform come next month.

 

[marcvader]

Has anyone adjusted their expectations at this point?

 

[mclay18]

Has anyone adjusted their expectations at this point?

It's too early to tell for me. If people love this movie and flock back again and tell their friends, it could surpass expectations. A $350M domestic tally and $750M international gross isn't out of the question.

 

[Iceman]

If the reviews are amazing then I think it will open massively (more than Hunger Games) and even then retain relatively well. $300m is the minimum. $400m I expect. $500m is not out of the question but it would have to be a 10/10 Avengers film. Overseas I think will help it to $1bn.

 

[T"Challa]

I'm still in the 800 mill range. However if the reviews are stellar, i could see this bad boy hitting a billion

 

[Quasimod0]

Everytime I see the hulk I think, the audience is going to LOVE this

 

[Raiden]

Everytime I see the hulk I think, the audience is going to LOVE this

Yeah, this could be the first Hulk where the moviegoers will totally buy the existence of this huge, green goliath.

 

[marcvader]

Yeah, he just oozes charisma in every shot. I could see why people have been saying he's been a fan favorite in the early viewings.

 

[jmc]

Yeah, this could be the first Hulk where the moviegoers will totally buy the existence of this huge, green goliath.

Something tells me the Hulk is more suited to an ensemble film anyway.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Something tells me the Hulk is more suited to an ensemble film anyway.

Yup, you can explore how uncontrollable yet noble he can be when you play him off other heroes. Which makes him more fun and inspirational than the "leave me alone or I fight your military" angle.

 

[Iceman]

Something tells me the Hulk is more suited to an ensemble film anyway.

Exactly. I've always said this. It's good for a Banner character analysis but can end up relatively depressing compared to what he can do in a team film.

Yup, you can explore how uncontrollable yet noble he can be when you play him off other heroes. Which makes him more fun and inspirational than the "leave me alone or I fight your military" angle.

Yeah, that premise in the solo films gets boring fast. In a team film like this you can have a much bigger threat where he can really let loose and be the superstar. And like you say we get a chance to see him being noble and showing he isn't just a beast. The IM save is a great example. The unrestrained beast would have no reason to do that.

 

[Raiden]

Yup, you can explore how uncontrollable yet noble he can be when you play him off other heroes. Which makes him more fun and inspirational than the "leave me alone or I fight your military" angle.

You have a point. In the previous two Hulk movies, we can see the directors were kind of ambivalent toward whether treating Hulk as a monster or a hero, but in TA, we can see Whedon making a conscious effort to make Hulk heroic. This makes me think that perhaps it would be great if Hulk returns in the sequel, rather than star in his third solo movie instead.

 

[Kirmit]

I don't think it's that Hulk needs to be in an essemble to shine, it's that he needs more people close to him in his own movies, ala Rick Jones!

 

[MarvelKnight]

Plus, setting Hulk up as a hero and giving him that heroic feel, would set him up for a tragic yet effective fall from grace that could be not only a great action flick but a pretty dramatic if done right..No matter how many times Banner may have the Hulk 'in-check' there is always the possibility that one wrong move and he will snap and take out a city. Could be very effective on film.

I don't think he needs a true ensemble ala avengers, but he needs real, fleshed-out supporting characters that actually have a stake in the hulk, such as rick like kirmit stated.

And, Avengers will crack a billion+

 

[The Morningstar]

I think the problem with Hulk's other movies, in terms of being popular with general movie goers is, Hulk didn't really do that much heroic stuff. He was fighting on behalf of himself, not for the greater good.

Here in Avengers we'll see that. Instead of Hulk fighting just to be left alone or to protect himself, he's fighting to protect others.

Anyway as for the box office? I think Marvel must be really confident releasing it over a week early internationally. I think if Avengers gets really positive reactions from around the world, it'll explode at the US box office.

 

[Raiden]

I think the problem with Hulk's other movies, in terms of being popular with general movie goers is, Hulk didn't really do that much heroic stuff. He was fighting on behalf of himself, not for the greater good.

Here in Avengers we'll see that. Instead of Hulk fighting just to be left alone or to protect himself, he's fighting to protect others.

Anyway as for the box office? I think Marvel must be really confident releasing it over a week early internationally. I think if Avengers gets really positive reactions from around the world, it'll explode at the US box office.

I think what makes Hulk works in The Avengers is also because he's in the same company as other superheroes and facing off against supervillains. It's always hard to fully gauge the strength & power of the Hulk, and while he had faced off against Abomination and the U.S. military in his movies, to me it just isn't as impressive due to the level of competition he faced. Now the Hulk will be dealing with gods, super agents, and aliens with hi-tech weaponry, and we can really appreciate just how devastating he can be.

 

[jmc]

I think the problem with Hulk's other movies, in terms of being popular with general movie goers is, Hulk didn't really do that much heroic stuff. He was fighting on behalf of himself, not for the greater good.

Here in Avengers we'll see that. Instead of Hulk fighting just to be left alone or to protect himself, he's fighting to protect others.

Anyway as for the box office? I think Marvel must be really confident releasing it over a week early internationally. I think if Avengers gets really positive reactions from around the world, it'll explode at the US box office.

It's a business decision more than anything else, school holidays will be on when it's released. They did the same with Thor.

 

[BigThor]

I think what makes Hulk works in The Avengers is also because he's in the same company as other superheroes and facing off against supervillains. It's always hard to fully gauge the strength & power of the Hulk, and while he had faced off against Abomination and the U.S. military in his movies, to me it just isn't as impressive due to the level of competition he faced. Now the Hulk will be dealing with gods, super agents, and aliens with hi-tech weaponry, and we can really appreciate just how devastating he can be.

Abomination is more powerful than anyone in The Avengers though, save Thor and possibly Loki in terms of overall power.

 

[jmc]

Forget what I said, turns out school holidays finish the week before it opens down here. I am baffled as to why they are releasing it earlier overseas then.