The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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It's not that. I think it's a little premature to say it'll challenge HP8 and TDK's opening weekend record, even with years of experience, tracking and so forth behind them. The market is difficult to predict, and it could go higher or lower than that. I think they'll have more accurate numbers once Disney releases early ticket selling numbers prior to opening.

Yeah true. The thing is, the guy didn't even give what number it was tracking as, or what kind of information he was looking at. He was just speculating about what was possible. I'm kind of surprised people are looking at his comments as though he is making some sort of hard prediction. He also speculated about The Dark Knight Rises going over 200 million. I really doubt there are any tracking numbers that reflect that total at this point, this early on.
 
It's not that. I think it's a little premature to say it'll challenge HP8 and TDK's opening weekend record, even with years of experience, tracking and so forth behind them. The market is difficult to predict, and it could go higher or lower than that. I think they'll have more accurate numbers once Disney releases early ticket selling numbers prior to opening.


Well yeah, it is that, because the 'average joe on internet website 444444357562378425683457' doesn't have much of anything to back them up.

The market is difficult to predict but those guys whose job it is to do so are far better predictors than we are.

Thus when www.boxoffice.com says $150 million opening and possibly even higher, I just go with it.
 
To me when you see what Hunger Games did in March, that sets the bar. Plus all the crappy movies surrounding the release of this one. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, because I was sure IM2 would open 150 mill, but I think there's way more buzz for this film than even IM2 had. If any film has the chance to break the Spider-man record for Marvel it will be this movie.
 
I think some people REALLY underestimate the power Avengers will have at the box office.
 
Marvel have certainly gone all out marketing this, so I guess the question is how much of that translates into real-world anticipation. The film's lucky in a way - the rest of May is looking really weak - but, like TDK and the first Spider-Man, it's going to have to appeal to people who would never bother seeing a Marvel film normally to get over 400m. That's why the trailer was smart: it played like a disaster movie, not a superhero movie.
 
It's gonna make what Captain America, Hulk, Thor, and Iron Man made added together!
 
By the way, Hunger Games will probably finish with about 380m domestically. If TA beats that it's done very well.
 
I probably wont see Hunger Games ,
Just not my thing.
But, what it has done is indeed impressive .
 
Marvel have certainly gone all out marketing this, so I guess the question is how much of that translates into real-world anticipation. The film's lucky in a way - the rest of May is looking really weak - but, like TDK and the first Spider-Man, it's going to have to appeal to people who would never bother seeing a Marvel film normally to get over 400m. That's why the trailer was smart: it played like a disaster movie, not a superhero movie.
Yeah I think there is a ceiling for any film seen as a superhero movie no matter how good it is. Crossing genre gets new money rather than trying to maximise a limited base.
 
Marvel have certainly gone all out marketing this, so I guess the question is how much of that translates into real-world anticipation. The film's lucky in a way - the rest of May is looking really weak - but, like TDK and the first Spider-Man, it's going to have to appeal to people who would never bother seeing a Marvel film normally to get over 400m. That's why the trailer was smart: it played like a disaster movie, not a superhero movie.

You're thinking is flawed there. People went and saw the first Spider-man precisely because it was Spider-man (and the second one for that matter). If it weren't for Attack of the Clones being released two weeks later, Spider-man would have probably made over 500M domestically.

TDK was a bit of a different animal, because obviously the appeal of Ledger and it being his swan song drew in a ton of money just on it's own. Add to the fact it really had zero competition until Tropic Thunder was released in August. 4 weeks at no. 1 no matter how big the opening will bode well.

Hunger games drew big crowds at the beginning due to anticipation and that if anything is what this film has going for it.
 
It's gonna make what Captain America, Hulk, Thor, and Iron Man made added together!

The boxoffice doesn't work like that. lol The Avengers will be it's own entity. Earn it's own money off it's own merits not necessarily piggybacking off previous efforts.
 
This movie will do really well, even if it's just mediocre. I'm more interested in how much The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight Rises will do with their release dates so close together.
 
ASM will be weak.

I see this movie doing 900 million worldwide. It will have a good shot at a billion and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets it.
 
The boxoffice doesn't work like that. lol The Avengers will be it's own entity. Earn it's own money off it's own merits not necessarily piggybacking off previous efforts.

Well f*** the box office and the stupid ass GA!!!



jk :oldrazz:
 
The analyst who made that prediction is with Exhibitor Relations. It's not as if he pulled those numbers out of the air. He has access to information about ticket presales, tracking data and the like upon which he based his prediction. It's less optimism on his part -- he's a professional who has no reason to talk up the movie -- than an informed estimation of the movie's prospects.
Who said that? Notfabio (a poster well-known on HSX, which is like Wall St except betting on movie box office) reported that presales at his usual multiplex, which has repeatedly proven to be a good representative for general audiences nationwide, for Avengers was "ok but not spectacular, definitely better than the non-Iron Man films."

Which isn't really that surprising, since there's less of a crazy fanbase (at least compared to Harry Potter and Twilight :funny: ) and more of a GA appeal. That points to more last-minute walk-ups than waiting months for the premiere.

Still, the audience to sustain a Harry Potter-like opening weekend is likely not there. In fact, World of KJ is even considering the possibility that Avengers won't even beat The Hunger Games' opening weekend. :o Not to knock Avengers of course, but Hunger Games was a BEAST.

There's still a few weeks and things might very well blow up between now and then.

The boxoffice doesn't work like that. lol The Avengers will be it's own entity. Earn it's own money off it's own merits not necessarily piggybacking off previous efforts.
Yeah, considering people who watched Cap and IM and Thor are likely the same kind of people. :oldrazz: Overlapping audiences - you can't just add them all together and assume they'll be paying to see TA 4 times to make up for the fact they also saw the previous movies. :funny:

I mean, some of you surely will, but most people who see movies aren't like us.
 
Word of mouth about the quality of the movie will really determine if it can beat records. I just don't think it will do enough in 3D sales to allow it to get into the $1 Billion range but something around $800-900 is what should be expected.
 
Devin said on Twitter the 3D is worthless which has become a recurring theme in Hollywood.
 
Devin said on Twitter the 3D is worthless which has become a recurring theme in Hollywood.
Kind of figured it would be. To me, 3D is just another gimmick to milk as much money out of a film as can be had. It seems like the only movies that have good 3D are ones that were filmed completely with 3D cameras (i.e. Avatar and TF: DOTM) so I'm probably not going to see The Avengers in 3D.
 
I've seen a handful of 3D films, the only two I rate as being genuinely engaging are Avatar and Hugo which funnily enough are the only two actually filmed in 3D. The 3 or 4 other films have been completely pointless. My midnight session is only in 3D sadly.
 
I've seen a handful of 3D films, the only two I rate as being genuinely engaging are Avatar and Hugo which funnily enough are the only two actually filmed in 3D. The 3 or 4 other films have been completely pointless. My midnight session is only in 3D sadly.
I've never been to any post-converted ones because of the poor quality that keeps getting reported about them. I'll only pay for 3D if they filmed it with actual 3D cameras, which has really limited me to only Avatar and TF: DOTM so far.
 
You gotta figure in all the kids who will wanna go see this, dragging their parents along, all those TV spots with Hulk rampaging about etc. People who just like big action films, the trailers give it that blockbuster scope that dwarf's the look of any superhero film before. Whedon's fanbase which might not be massive but is passionate.

If it has good buzz, and it seems like it does so far, I think it's comfortable for around 800-900 mill.
 
That doesn't make a lick of sense, seeing as how a lot of the same people saw all those movies.
Actually, I don't think he's saying that in a mathematical sense, he just thinks the movie will make as much as those did combined, not necessarily BECAUSE they're combined.
 
Iron Man and Thor's combined box office numbers alone are over a billion, so I don't think The Avengers is gonna make as much as IM,THOR,TIH, and CA:TFA combined.
 
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Actually, I don't think he's saying that in a mathematical sense, he just thinks the movie will make as much as those did combined, not necessarily BECAUSE they're combined.
Then...what are you combining that "makes as much", if it's not mathematically? :huh:
 
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