The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

My official prediction on opening weekend is 159.5 million.

I think it's gonna take the record.

 

[J.Howlett]

169.2 is the record. Not so sure...

 

[Chewy]

I think it's gonna take the record.

170's a tall order... it can do it but I'm not convinced yet.

 

[kurac]

avengers is going to brake harry potter record with around 175 mill,and then dark knight rises will brake that.there is not a single doubt in my mind about this

 

[Chewy]

avengers is going to brake harry potter record with around 175 mill,and then dark knight rises will brake that.there is not a single doubt in my mind about this

Very possible. Avengers will at least come close to the record and TDKR will break it for sure.

 

[Fifthchild]

You guys are still high-balling the hell out of these numbers. Deadline just posted official industry insider numbers in that article linked above.....Disney & Marvel themselves are estimating $100+ mil OW, and Deadline tacks on some healthy optimism and grants it a $125 mil opening. That's from Hollywood themselves, guys. You're arguing with the guys who actually made the movie....they're not expecting anything close to Hunger Games numbers.

Studios always give low estimates. That way when your movie comes out and underperforms you can say "Actually its doing right around what we expected it to do. Everything is fine!". This happens over and over. If a movie does bad enough that a studio has to admit "That didnt do as well as we would have liked" while its still in cinemas you know it tanked.

 

[Tony Stark]

Very possible. Avengers will at least come close to the record and TDKR will break it for sure.

I'm not so sure on TDKR. I just don't think it's as epic as TDK was. Bane IMO is a weak Batman villian, although I'm going just to see Anne Hatheway in skin tight leather!

I know the TDKR marketing really hasn't started, and will probably start up with Avengers, but to me it just doesn't seem like a very intriguing story compared to TDK.

Avengers will open big for sure, but depending on how well people like it will draw people back or not. Avengers just seems on more of an epic scale as TDK was than TDKR.

 

[Tony Stark]

170's a tall order... it can do it but I'm not convinced yet.

Not when you consider there's not another movie in May that's going to come close to those kind of numbers. I suspect MIB III will do 80-90 mil opening weekend, and that's as close as it's going to get.

This summer sucks as far as week-in, week-out big draw movies. 2008 while Iron Man did extremely well for it's first outing, it had to face Chronicles of Narnia and Indiana Jones. While Speed Racer flopped, it wasn't because Warner Brother's lack of marketing the hell out of the movie.

2008 was probably one of the most jam packed summers for big huge movies, that we really haven't seen since.

 

[Raiden]

I don't think TA would make 170 mil OW, as much as I want it to. However, 150-160 mil is extremely doable, and depending on the critics' reviews and WOM, it just might break the records when we least expect it to.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Going by these opening weekends:
DH Pt 2 $169m
TDK $158m
THG $152m
Spidey 3 $151m
Iron Man 2 $128m

I'm going to say between $160m and $165m

 

[solidsnake86]

Very possible. Avengers will at least come close to the record and TDKR will break it for sure.

I'm nt so sure about TDKR, I think it will come down to how its received, and with the hype surrounding the film I'm not so sure it will live up to expectations which could hurt its chances.

Its great to hear the avengers is tracking well though, hopefully it can do more than the Iron Man 2 opening weekend, with the early positivie word of mouth it should be no problem.

 

[cherokeesam]

It's pretty much a guaranteed that this film is going to make more than IM2's opening (128 mill), that shouldn't even be up for debate especially with Disney helping out with marketing.

I agree with you there, and I believe the insiders are low-balling the estimates as much as some of the clear-eyed fanboys are high-balling them. No way in hell it does *less* than IM2's opening, but if it does, those numbers are going to hit Disney where it hurts, coming right off the John Carter fiasco.

I just don't see this generating nearly as much universal appeal as THG, though, to garner at least $155 mil for an opener. The article said that it's a three-quadrant film, shading towards four quadrants --- specifically, it's got males, parents and kids wrapped up, but women are listed only as "solid numbers." That's going to be key here, and I've said it from day one....if this is perceived as too much of a testosterone-filled sausage-fest, the female audiences just will not be there. Yeah, I know: cue the fangirls here and all the Tumblr comments, but you guys -- girls -- still represent only a small part of that population. Remains to be seen how the final demographics of the audience pan out.

 

[The Morningstar]

Did Hunger Games have 3D?

 

[Chewy]

The four quadrants studios use are Men 25 and under, Men over 25, Women 25 and under, and Women over 25. Not Male/female/parents/kids

 

[Nokio]

Well I think it's important not to get ahead of ourselves with these predictions. I'm hoping the movie is good first and box office is a second for me. If it's good then a good box office is a given it most cases with these genre of films. Transformers 2 and to an extent 3 was an exception. Talk about critic proof movies

 

[Nokio]

My prediction is 200 million opening weekend. I can feel it, LOL. Realistically speaking imma go with 145-160.

 

[T"Challa]

I"m predicting something between 145-155mill opening weekend

 

[(SUPERMAN)]

OK, here it goes my predictions for The Avengers box office.

Opening Weekend US Box Office = $160 Million
Overall US Box Office = $350 - $400 Million
Overall International Box Office = $400 - $450 Million
Overall World Wide Box Office = $750 – 850 Million

 

[J.Howlett]

I'm nt so sure about TDKR, I think it will come down to how its received, and with the hype surrounding the film I'm not so sure it will live up to expectations which could hurt its chances.

Its great to hear the avengers is tracking well though, hopefully it can do more than the Iron Man 2 opening weekend, with the early positivie word of mouth it should be no problem.

Opening weekend for a sequel is about marketing and how people felt about the last picture.

Rises breaks the record when it opens....which in turn gets broken next November by Catching Fire, which will be the first 200 million dollar opening weekend film.

Bank on it.

 

[Xeno]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/ave...5m-opening-weekend-with-four-quadrant-appeal/



And this is before word spreads of how good it is

This is the part of the article that seems most relevant to me:

Right now Disney and theatre owners are adding screens every day for the release whose online pre-sales of tickets are already selling out. Midnight show business is expected to be phenomenal. Exactly how much the studio can gross for the first weekend depends on how many screenings each theater can pack into 72 hours by finding enough staff willing to work the extra hours and keep the pic running continuously.

The analysts are saying that the movie's take will be phenomenal, and even more if the theaters showing it can add more showtimes in order to accommodate demand for tickets. That in and of itself tells us how high the public's interest in The Avengers is, three weeks ahead of its North American opening. Disney's hype machine has only begun to flex its marketing might. This thing is massive.

 

[Tony Stark]

Opening weekend for a sequel is about marketing and how people felt about the last picture.

Rises breaks the record when it opens....which in turn gets broken next November by Catching Fire, which will be the first 200 million dollar opening weekend film.

Bank on it.

Not true. In fact alot of sequels end up doing worse than the previous film, ala Spider-man 2 vs. Spider-man 1.

This is nothing against TDKR, but Bane is not a bankable villian which is exactly why IM2 had such a hard time of it. Bane is a character only the die hard batman fans are familiar with, he's not Joker, he's not Penguin, he's not Riddler. Catwoman will be a draw, and with Hatheway there, it probably makes it compelling.

TDKR will do well, but I would not be surprised if it opens below TDK, it's certainly not going to make as much money as TDK made.

TDKR in fact feels more like IM2 did, and Avengers has more of an epic feel as TDK had.

I could be totally wrong, but people expecting TDKR to top TDK will probably be dissapointed. Not to mention most superhero genre's have struggled in the third act.

 

[Tony Stark]

This is the part of the article that seems most relevant to me:




The analysts are saying that the movie's take will be phenomenal, and even more if the theaters showing it can add more showtimes in order to accommodate demand for tickets. That in and of itself tells us how high the public's interest in The Avengers is, three weeks ahead of its North American opening. Disney's hype machine has only begun to flex its marketing might. This thing is massive.

Because of the craptacular releases coming in April and in May after Avengers, Avengers will have better screen hold than any previous Marvel May film release, probably it will hold as well as the first Spider-man.

Last year Thor had some tough competition with Fast and Furious doing so well, it probably cost Thor 20M in receipts. In any other year, I think Thor would have done Star Trek type numbers.

Also this is the first Marvel film since Iron Man not to suffer the Mother's day letdown. Both Thor and IM2 had big first week Sunday drops because of the holiday (Star Trek also suffered this drop).

But Avengers, like Iron Man 1 and even Spider-man 1, has the advantage of the first full weekend in May that doesn't fall on Mother's day.

Avengers will be no 1 at the box office for at least 3 weeks, and possibly even 4 if MIB III fails, and MIB is a sequel that no one was really asking for, and it's a bit long in the tooth.

 

[T"Challa]

It's going to be a huge year at the boxoffice..i see a number of films getting over 500 mill..hunger games,avengers,tdkr,skyfall,tasm,hobbit and hopefully prometheus

 

[J.Howlett]

Not true. In fact alot of sequels end up doing worse than the previous film, ala Spider-man 2 vs. Spider-man 1.

This is nothing against TDKR, but Bane is not a bankable villian which is exactly why IM2 had such a hard time of it. Bane is a character only the die hard batman fans are familiar with, he's not Joker, he's not Penguin, he's not Riddler. Catwoman will be a draw, and with Hatheway there, it probably makes it compelling.

TDKR will do well, but I would not be surprised if it opens below TDK, it's certainly not going to make as much money as TDK made.

TDKR in fact feels more like IM2 did, and Avengers has more of an epic feel as TDK had.

I could be totally wrong, but people expecting TDKR to top TDK will probably be dissapointed. Not to mention most superhero genre's have struggled in the third act.

Rises will have the opening weekend record...but, it won't surpass Knight's total box office...unless Nolan really went beyond Knight.

But, Rises feels nothing like Iron Man 2 in terms of buzz...nothing.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's going to be a huge year at the boxoffice..i see a number of films getting over 500 mill..hunger games,avengers,tdkr,skyfall,tasm,hobbit and hopefully prometheus

The problem is most of the other films that you didn't list are probably going to do poorly. The only thing saving the BO now was the unbelievable March that we had where you had Hunger Games, 21 Jump Street and The Lorax all doing very well. You've had some moderate successes in the Vow and Safe House, but most everything else this year has been a dud, including the hugely promoted Disney backed John Carter and Warner's unnecessary sequel Wrath of the Titans.