The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Joeyjojo72]

I think ASM has to be significantly better than SM1&2. Since those movies came out, the bar has been raised significantly higher. If the movie is merely decent, it will be successful, but not a megahit.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

You can make that argument for pretty much every blockbuster. Quality = staying power/legs.

 

[marcvader]

July 3rd. They still have a ton of time to crank up the marketing. Right now is Avengers' time to shine. Sony would be foolish to throw away a ton of marketing cash on TASM right now.

They've got plenty of time to get the kiddies fired up for it.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Im saying it was a mistake for Sony to wait this long to "rev up the hype machine". Im rooting for this movie so I hope Im wrong. As for TDKR, it will be a megahit regardless of the marketing.

As someone in the industry who knows how these guys think, trust me when I say going into full drive now would kill ASM. It's just not business-wise a smart move to make. You go into over-drive now? You're pressing the red button before there's even a movie in sight. If you press the red-button a couple weeks to a month before? You're going to have a storm swept into it's opening. That's how these work. You want a gathering storm to give you those first weekend results. If you press it too fast, it's just going to get lost in the maze. And as you said TDKR already has a built-in following, that also explains why it's on that poll and Spidey's not in sight despite coming out in the same month. The other movies on said poll are coming out relatively soon in comparison thus obviously there's going to be more awareness for films coming out sooner. That's all it boils down to.

 

[Raiden]

Agreed. I'm very confident of this. It will most likely surpass it.

I'm not sure if ASM can match or surpass IM, but I do hope it will succeed; I don't want Spidey's movie to perform below expectation, especially given the disappointment that was SM3.

 

[flickchick85]

I think ASM is in a tricky situation because due to the "too soon for a reboot" sentiment, I feel like it is destined to be a slow starter - that is, (if it's as good a movie as I think it will be) the WOM is what should make it a winner. However, two weeks after its opening, right when its legs from that WOM should kick in, is when the Goliath that is TDKR hits. And when ASM doesn't do much in its 3rd and 4th weekends thanks to everyone and their mom seeing TDKR, ASM's theater count will begin to dwindle, which would stop it from becoming the breakout hit it could have been if it had a different release date.

That said, it's Spider-man. The fans and kids are gonna make it a hit. Just, maybe, not as big a hit as people expect from Spidey, which would of course lead some to cry "disappointment."

 

[Tony Stark]

I know exactly what I'm talking about, but I'm not surprised you would resort to insults in a disagreement with someone. If its legs were incredible, none of us at BoxOffice.com would have been able to predict the total like we did. It would have far exceeded expectations after opening weekend, and it's not doing that. It is going to end up with an amazing total and it had an amazing opening, but the legs are not incredible. Avatar had incredible legs.

No you don't and if you did a simple search on March releases you would see how well this film is doing. Other than Alice in Wonderland there really isn't a film to compare, and that had 3D boost and was otherwise ordinary.

 

[Raiden]

I think ASM is in a tricky situation because due to the "too soon for a reboot" sentiment, I feel like it is destined to be a slow starter - that is, (if it's as good a movie as I think it will be) the WOM is what should make it a winner. However, two weeks after its opening, right when its legs from that WOM should kick in, is when the Goliath that is TDKR hits. And when ASM doesn't do much in its 3rd and 4th weekends thanks to everyone and their mom seeing TDKR, ASM's theater count will begin to dwindle, which would stop it from becoming the breakout hit it could have been if it had a different release date.

That said, it's Spider-man. The fans and kids are gonna make it a hit. Just, maybe, not as big a hit as people expect from Spidey, which would of course lead some to cry "disappointment."

I agree. While Spider-Man is one of the most popular superheroes not just in comics but also in the popular culture, like Superman and Batman do, the memories of Raimi's Spider-Man trilogy is still fresh on people's mind, and while some kids may go see anything related to Spider-Man, some older moviegoers may stay away due to their skepticism toward this fresh reboot, or even displeasure due to a myriad of reasons. It is still too early to gauge what the audience will think, though.

 

[Raiden]

Although I don't have a dog in this fight, even since TDK broke all kinds of records I've been hoping that Marvel would have a movie that can match TDK in terms of quality and box office. I haven't seen TA yet, but judging from all the positive reactions from both internet critics and people who saw the movie in advance screenings, it gives me hope that Marvel will indeed have a TDK on their hands.

 

[Tony Stark]

I agree. While Spider-Man is one of the most popular superheroes not just in comics but also in the popular culture, like Superman and Batman do, the memories of Raimi's Spider-Man trilogy is still fresh on people's mind, and while some kids may go see anything related to Spider-Man, some older moviegoers may stay away due to their skepticism toward this fresh reboot, or even displeasure due to a myriad of reasons. It is still too early to gauge what the audience will think, though.

And that's why this is alot different than Batman Begins. However much people hate SM3, it generally was successful. Perhaps the studio wanted to see better legs, but it did set a record at the time.

Batman Begins, had the luxury that the 3rd and 4th Batman films were pure ****, and arguably the 2nd one wasn't very good either (although I know some people loved it).

While I don't think TASM has to be significantly better than SM1 and 2, it does need to be significantly better than SM3.

 

[redfirebird2008]

No you don't and if you did a simple search on March releases you would see how well this film is doing. Other than Alice in Wonderland there really isn't a film to compare, and that had 3D boost and was otherwise ordinary.

It had a phenomenal opening regardless of month, but for March it was off the charts. I think it's the most impressive opening weekend ever. But its run since then hasn't been incredible. Again, I wouldn't have been able to predict its total if it had incredible legs. Hangover had incredible legs. Avatar had incredible legs. Titanic had incredible legs. My Big Fat Greek Wedding had incredible legs. If Hunger Games managed to reach $500m when most people predicted around $400m after opening weekend, then I would say it had incredible legs. Otherwise, it had an incredible opening and incredible total, but pretty much expected legs after the opening. No one expected it to open so huge or have a total around $400m before it came out, so those are both incredible feats.

 

[Iceman]

What planet are you living on?

The multiple of weekend to final gross is used when measuring legs with 3 a pretty good number for anything opening big. With a $150m opening weekend HG would need to make $450m to reach that. It's been a massive success no doubt but its strength is in its huge opening weekend, not its legs.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I'm not sure if ASM can match or surpass IM, but I do hope it will succeed; I don't want Spidey's movie to perform below expectation, especially given the disappointment that was SM3.

IM numbers would be a success for a reboot. But I think 3D and expanded markets make it a real possibility to not only equal IM, but surpass it. Even with Batman's finale 3 weeks later.

I think ASM is in a tricky situation because due to the "too soon for a reboot" sentiment, I feel like it is destined to be a slow starter - that is, (if it's as good a movie as I think it will be) the WOM is what should make it take off. However, two weeks after its opening, right when its legs should kick in, is when the Goliath that is TDKR hits. And when ASM doesn't do much in its 3rd and 4th weekends thanks to everyone and their mom seeing TDKR, ASM's theater count will begin to dwindle.

That said, it's Spider-man. The fans and kids are gonna make it a hit. Just, maybe, not as big a hit as people expect from Spidey, which would of course lead some to cry "disappointment."

Good points. I agree WOM will be the biggest factor in eliminating the reboot fatigue, even more so then advertisement. And if TASM is a hit critically (which I expect), then I don't think it will be deemed a disappointment. Look at First Class for an example. Most people don't consider it a disappointment despite it's lackluster box office (another reboot/prequel). It was pretty well recieved across the board. Although expectations for Spider-Man are on a different level for sure.

 

[Iceman]

Although I don't have a dog in this fight, even since TDK broke all kinds of records I've been hoping that Marvel would have a movie that can match TDK in terms of quality and box office. I haven't seen TA yet, but judging from all the positive reactions from both internet critics and people who saw the movie in advance screenings, it gives me hope that Marvel will indeed have a TDK on their hands.

I think it will be an even bigger asset if they manage to turn it into an ongoing revenue generator. Limiting it to a trilogy would be a mistake and they need something like this to support the film universe. I consider myself a massive fan of Marvel but even then I don't want to see 5 movies for every individual character. The big guns & team movies with dynamic rosters are the core that can keep on giving.

TDK will only have one sequel which will probably have a finality to it. With Nolan & Bale out after that the future of Batman while very healthy, will be back in unknown territory. I wish DC were moving ahead with JL but it looks further away than ever.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

If TASM doesnt open strong, no amount of good WOM will make up the difference. If Sony is convinced they have a masterpiece/blockbuster on their hands, they better start acting like it. If its merely decent, the WOM wont be that great anyway. The Avengers Super Bowl trailer was 2.5 months ago, and really ramped up interest in that movie (i prefer the 2nd trailer of course). If Sony cant cobble together enough kick-ass footage to get potential audiences psyched up, thats a bad sign. Maybe the next trailer will change my mind. Cautiously optimistic for ASM regardless.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Batman Begins opened up at $49 million and went on to gross over $200 million, so yeah, WOM can be a factor despite not having a galactic opening. But you are free to believe what you want. I'm not really trying to convince anyone of anything, I'm just adding to the context of the discussion.

 

[jmc]

TDK will only have one sequel which will probably have a finality to it. With Nolan & Bale out after that the future of Batman while very healthy, will be back in unknown territory. I wish DC were moving ahead with JL but it looks further away than ever.

No probably about it, this sucker is over come July, Batman's future is pretty much perfectly fine now as long as the goal is to make them good movies, it's going to be left in a better position than it was in 1997 that's for certain.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Batman Begins opened up at $49 million and went on to gross over $200 million, so yeah, WOM can be a factor despite not having a galactic opening. But you are free to believe what you want. I'm not really trying to convince anyone of anything, I'm just adding to the context of the discussion.

Batman Begins' legs weren't as impressive as they might look on paper. It opened on a Wednesday, so the weekend number was deflated. Having said that, it did have pretty solid legs even if you taken into account the 5-day opening. The thing that could end up hurting TASM in terms of legs if TDKR. I think TASM will need to make as much as possible in that first 17 days, because TDKR will be taking a lot of screens from it and they will be directly competing in the same genre. Universal made the mistake of putting Hellboy II just a week before TDK and that ended up killing HB2's chances to grow some legs. I felt bad for that movie because it was well-made, but the executives running Universal at the time were clueless.

 

[jmc]

^ To be fair though they probably didn't think TDK would be as massive a film as everyone thought it would be.

 

[redfirebird2008]

^ To be fair though they probably didn't think TDK would be as massive a film as everyone thought it would be.

Even then it was stupid to put it right in front of a movie that was obviously going to be bigger than HB2. You gotta at least give your movie a chance to reach audiences, and the execs failed miserably in this regard. It certainly would have done better if they put it the week after TDK or a couple weeks after.

 

[jmc]

What's sucks is that it's a good film too. Feel sorry for the people who made that movie.

 

[redfirebird2008]

What's sucks is that it's a good film too. Feel sorry for the people who made that movie.

Exactly. Feel bad for Del Toro and company. That's the type of thing where the stockholders of the company have a right to demand termination of the executives who decided on the release date. And sure enough they did get fired eventually because of other similarly stupid decisions.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Batman Begins' legs weren't as impressive as they might look on paper. It opened on a Wednesday, so the weekend number was deflated. Having said that, it did have pretty solid legs even if you taken into account the 5-day opening. The thing that could end up hurting TASM in terms of legs if TDKR. I think TASM will need to make as much as possible in that first 17 days, because TDKR will be taking a lot of screens from it and they will be directly competing in the same genre. Universal made the mistake of putting Hellboy II just a week before TDK and that ended up killing HB2's chances to grow some legs. I felt bad for that movie because it was well-made, but the executives running Universal at the time were clueless.

My main point about BB was that plenty of films have opened bigger but ended up with less total sum. WOM has a positive and negative effect.

TDKR will definitely take steam out of TASM's box office haul. A franchise with momentum vs. a reboot. I think it will hurt it more domestically then internationally though. 3D is huge overseas as is Spidey, particularily in Asia. I'm not expecting it to compete with Batman or the Avengers at the box office this time around.

 

[redfirebird2008]

My main point about BB was that plenty of films have opened bigger but ended up with less total sum. WOM has a positive and negative effect.

TDKR will definitely take steam out of TASM's box office haul. A franchise with momentum vs. a reboot. I think it will hurt it more domestically then internationally though. 3D is huge overseas as is Spidey, particularily in Asia. I'm not expecting it to compete with Batman or the Avengers at the box office this time around.

I think it could because of the international markets, as you said. 3D has exploded overseas. Look at the jump in overseas revenue from Transformers 2 to Transformers 3. Astonishing increase. Most people expected a big increase, but not that big of an increase. SM3 already had a big increase over SM2 and that was without a 3D boost. I wouldn't be surprised if TASM makes $700m overseas.

 

[Iceman]

No probably about it, this sucker is over come July, Batman's future is pretty much perfectly fine now as long as the goal is to make them good movies, it's going to be left in a better position than it was in 1997 that's for certain.

Everyone knows how big and how good Batman can be when done right now. No reason not to give us future Batman films that aren't at least in the league of BB.

Batman Begins' legs weren't as impressive as they might look on paper. It opened on a Wednesday, so the weekend number was deflated. Having said that, it did have pretty solid legs even if you taken into account the 5-day opening. The thing that could end up hurting TASM in terms of legs if TDKR. I think TASM will need to make as much as possible in that first 17 days, because TDKR will be taking a lot of screens from it and they will be directly competing in the same genre. Universal made the mistake of putting Hellboy II just a week before TDK and that ended up killing HB2's chances to grow some legs. I felt bad for that movie because it was well-made, but the executives running Universal at the time were clueless.

I just watched Hellboy II again yesterday and it really is great. Box office is as much about positioning yourself well as anything else so it's a real shame in this case. I say you should never be too proud to move when something bigger sets a date within a week (or sometimes 2) of your release.