The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[mclay18]

Anticipation polls are misleading to some extent. The Avengers will not make 4 times more money then Spider-Man OW (or overall) because of a poll. Spider-Man will do big business. Brand recognition.

You guys are seriously overestimating TAS' gross. It has brand recognition, but Sony has been doing a crap job of marketing it as a reboot (and brand-new Spider-Man). First trailer gave off a TDK vibe, then the next one felt like a Tobey- and Kirsten-less SM-4. That mistake is also extended to the two new posters -- one took inspiration from the TDK posters while the other looks like a modified SM-3 poster. Mark my words, don't be shocked if the film can't make it to $300M domestic, let alone $200M.

The Avengers looks to overperform due to good marketing, stellar reviews, and a weak slate of films afterward. $380M is the highest I expect for it to reach, and $300M even at the minimum.

 

[Chewy]

Yeah you can say TASM doesn't open for a while and is a reboot but Bourne Legacy managed 14% of the male vote on the very same poll.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I think it could because of the international markets, as you said. 3D has exploded overseas. Look at the jump in overseas revenue from Transformers 2 to Transformers 3. Astonishing increase. Most people expected a big increase, but not that big of an increase. SM3 already had a big increase over SM2 and that was without a 3D boost. I wouldn't be surprised if TASM makes $700m overseas.

Will be interesting. I think SM3 did something like $550m overseas didn't it? Which is more then TDK did.

You guys are seriously overestimating TAS' gross. It has brand recognition, but Sony has been doing a crap job of marketing it as a reboot (and brand-new Spider-Man). First trailer gave off a TDK vibe, then the next one felt like a Tobey- and Kirsten-less SM-4. That mistake is also extended to the two new posters -- one took inspiration from the TDK posters while the other looks like a modified SM-3 poster. Mark my words, don't be shocked if the film can't make it to $300M domestic, let alone $200M.

We'll see. I never thought it would make it to $300 m domestic. Overseas is where I always thought it would do more damage.

But your opinion seems to be the editorial opinion of the website in your sig. Harmony.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Yeah you can say TASM doesn't open for a while and is a reboot but Bourne Legacy managed 14% of the male vote on the very same poll.

Well I guess we'll just have to wait and see how that poll translates into real numbers when the dust settles.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I would say you can attest people to just hearing the name 'Bourne' and automatically liking it and being interested. After all, did it go out on a bad note? I think not. HOWEVER the same can not be said about Spider-Man 3. General audiences for the most part hated that movie thus we're without a doubt going to see what happened to 'Batman Begins' happen to 'The Amazing Spider-Man.' I say this because marketing has nothing to do with Bourne, I mean - what? It has one trailer that I have yet to see except for one time in theaters (and I go two to three times a week, sometimes more). That's marketing? I don't think so. That's brand recognition. Something Spidey at this point has going against him.

That said, like all films, it's going to be a blitzkrieg once we get down to it. They're going to be pulling all the stops. Yes, you can say those posters are like the other films. But, dude, seriously - you do know at this point only fanboys have seen those right? Not general audience members. So it really doesn't fly into the face of anything other than all that's going on right now is brand recognition. We'll have a true knowing point once we reach June. But definitely not before. And to put Spider-Man promotions largely out when Avengers is out? With a general audience that only knows of it as "the movie where all the heroes come together" - it'd without a doubt get lost in the mix. Most likely, they'd get confused cause' as we know some already are.

And for those who think brand recognition has nothing to do with what's gonna inevitably happen... dudes, seriously? BATMAN is brand recognition and all people kept thinking when BEGINS came out was "uh-oh, Bats movie after B&R gotta be cautious!" Spidey won't be immune to that. I'm looking at same kinda numbers due to that. It's going to do good. But, even SONY is expecting a blow back from SM3 in getting audience trust back. Then if trust is earned, like with BB, expect TAS2 to be the major success again.

 

[jmc]

Will be interesting. I think SM3 did something like $550m overseas didn't it? Which is more then TDK did.

I did not realize SM3 made over 500m overseas. Strange.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I did not realize SM3 made over 500m overseas. Strange.

I believe somewhere around 64 percent of it's profit came overseas. It was a monster in Japan.

 

[Vulklin]

Spider-Man 3 >>>>> The Dark Knight

There I said it

 

[warhorse78]

Indeed, things don't look very promising for spidey...


[/I]

It's awesome news, and, yeah, Hems' profile is going through the roof.

Not only Chris Hemsworth, but his fellow Avenger's co-star, Jeremy Renner, who's going to be in Bourne Legacy, third on the men's most anticipated movie.

Either way, Avengers has a really sweet cast.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I did not realize SM3 made over 500m overseas. Strange.

Yeah, it was gigantic overseas. Huge increase from the first two. Add in 5 years of inflation plus the 3D effect and TASM can definitely hit $700m, possibly even $800m.

 

[mclay18]

We'll see. I never thought it would make it to $300 m domestic. Overseas is where I always thought it would do more damage.

Overseas, they'll lap up a big tentpole movie in 3D... especially the expanded markets in China. See Pirates of the Caribbean 4 and Titanic 3D.

But your opinion seems to be the editorial opinion of the website in your sig. Harmony.

I contribute to the website... hence the site signature.

 

[warhorse78]

I would say you can attest people to just hearing the name 'Bourne' and automatically liking it and being interested. After all, did it go out on a bad note? I think not. HOWEVER the same can not be said about Spider-Man 3. General audiences for the most part hated that movie thus we're without a doubt going to see what happened to 'Batman Begins' happen to 'The Amazing Spider-Man.' I say this because marketing has nothing to do with Bourne, I mean - what? It has one trailer that I have yet to see except for one time in theaters (and I go two to three times a week, sometimes more). That's marketing? I don't think so. That's brand recognition. Something Spidey at this point has going against him.

That said, like all films, it's going to be a blitzkrieg once we get down to it. They're going to be pulling all the stops. Yes, you can say those posters are like the other films. But, dude, seriously - you do know at this point only fanboys have seen those right? Not general audience members. So it really doesn't fly into the face of anything other than all that's going on right now is brand recognition. We'll have a true knowing point once we reach June. But definitely not before. And to put Spider-Man promotions largely out when Avengers is out? With a general audience that only knows of it as "the movie where all the heroes come together" - it'd without a doubt get lost in the mix. Most likely, they'd get confused cause' as we know some already are.

And for those who think brand recognition has nothing to do with what's gonna inevitably happen... dudes, seriously? BATMAN is brand recognition and all people kept thinking when BEGINS came out was "uh-oh, Bats movie after B&R gotta be cautious!" Spidey won't be immune to that. I'm looking at same kinda numbers due to that. It's going to do good. But, even SONY is expecting a blow back from SM3 in getting audience trust back. Then if trust is earned, like with BB, expect TAS2 to be the major success again.

I don't know about this. Bourne may have ended on a high note, but when the first trailer for Bourne Legacy came out, there were tons, and tons of people who were upset that Matt Damon wasn't going to be in it, and upset that it wasn't going to feature Jason Bourne. The same skepticism that is befalling TAS is also befalling Bourne Legacy to a degree. But Bourne seems to be overcoming it, which I am glad.

From my own POV, I'm really don't care about TAS, and it's due to me feeling that it's too soon for a reboot. Why should I pay to see something I pretty much already seen before?

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Overseas, they'll lap up a big tentpole movie in 3D... especially the expanded markets in China. See Pirates of the Caribbean 4 and Titanic 3D.

Agreed, which is why I think my prediction of IM + numbers WW is not unreasonable. Overseas is where lightning could strike and push it even higher. For domestic I expect in the 210 - 250 m range. More then acceptable for a reboot imo, disagree?

I contribute to the website... hence the site signature.

I understand.

 

[jmc]

Yeah, it was gigantic overseas. Huge increase from the first two. Add in 5 years of inflation plus the 3D effect and TASM can definitely hit $700m, possibly even $800m.

I was under the impression no superhero film had ever made over 500m overseas, I don't know how I missed that, Spider-man might have a far bigger presence internationally than I thought. Problem is it's going to get swept away when Rises hits two weeks later. I wonder why they didn't go for a late May or early June release. It's funny, 2012 is shaping up like 2008 again.

 

[Chewy]

I was under the impression no superhero film had ever made over 500m overseas, I don't know how I missed that, Spider-man might have a far bigger presence internationally than I thought. Problem is it's going to get swept away when Rises hits two weeks later. I wonder why they didn't go for a late May or early June release. It's funny, 2012 is shaping up like 2008 again.

They're releasing Men in Black in late May

 

[jmc]

Ah, this is why I hate 'blockbuster season'. Too many films getting jammed next to each other. I'm hoping Hunger Games will kick start a movement to spread things out throughout the year, it's just too crowded.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Ah, this is why I hate 'blockbuster season'. Too many films getting jammed next to each other. I'm hoping Hunger Games will kick start a movement to spread things out throughout the year, it's just too crowded.

I think it will. THG is proof that you don't need to release a movie in the summer or December to have it make a ton of cash.

 

[Neo_3]

I think it will. THG is proof that you don't need to release a movie in the summer or December to have it make a ton of cash.

This has been going for awhile now.

 

[samsnee]

Granted, I haven't been paying as much attention to ASM marketing as I have Avengers, but do any of its trailers have a really great money shot? Something like the collapsing football field in TDKR or the leviathan chasing Iron Man? To me, it seems a pretty paint-by-the-numbers reboot. I know they're trying to push the whole "Untold story with Peter's parents" angle, but daddy issues doesn't really seem like a smart marketing strategy.

 

[Quasimod0]

Spider-Man 3 >>>>> The Dark Knight

There I said it

As a film, no way. But i really really enjoyed spider-man 3. Had a ton of fun at the theatre

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Granted, I haven't been paying as much attention to ASM marketing as I have Avengers, but do any of its trailers have a really great money shot? Something like the collapsing football field in TDKR or the leviathan chasing Iron Man? To me, it seems a pretty paint-by-the-numbers reboot. I know they're trying to push the whole "Untold story with Peter's parents" angle, but daddy issues doesn't really seem like a smart marketing strategy.

What does a paint-by-numbers reboot entail? It doesn't have to have a collapsing football field or leviathan to be good, does it? It's not Transformers or a team-up like the Avengers. It's a more personal tale. Less boom, explosions and comic-bookey Bryan Hitch "money shots" and more character moments. Although there will be plenty of action I'm sure.

I guess it just goes to show that everything is subjective. I'm more then happy with how TASM stacks up to the Avengers from what I've seen. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Marvel]

I would say you can attest people to just hearing the name 'Bourne' and automatically liking it and being interested. After all, did it go out on a bad note? I think not. HOWEVER the same can not be said about Spider-Man 3. General audiences for the most part hated that movie thus we're without a doubt going to see what happened to 'Batman Begins' happen to 'The Amazing Spider-Man.'

And for those who think brand recognition has nothing to do with what's gonna inevitably happen... dudes, seriously? BATMAN is brand recognition and all people kept thinking when BEGINS came out was "uh-oh, Bats movie after B&R gotta be cautious!" Spidey won't be immune to that. I'm looking at same kinda numbers due to that. It's going to do good. But, even SONY is expecting a blow back from SM3 in getting audience trust back. Then if trust is earned, like with BB, expect TAS2 to be the major success again.

I'm sorry but this is just fanboy spin. General audiences for the most part liked Spider-Man 3 a LOT. It's some of the fanboys that have the problem with it. Most think VERY fondly of the Raimi trilogy. THAT will be the problem with TAS. General audiences just aren't ready for the reboot and don't want to accept another cast. I personally know over a dozen people who enjoyed the trilogy but make a face when I bring up this reboot. It's NOT some SM3 hangover, it's just the opposite of what Batman Begins faced. The end result may be the same because of quality and word of mouth but to spin it otherwise is just wrong.

As for Avengers, I love how they are marketing it...

Spoiler

 

[cherokeesam]

Yeah you can say TASM doesn't open for a while and is a reboot but Bourne Legacy managed 14% of the male vote on the very same poll.

I'd like to see a poll where they inform the poll-takers that Bourne Legacy does not star Matt Damon, just to see if those numbers hold up.

There's been very little promotion or hype for Bourne yet, and I think the interest factor will wane pretty damn quickly when the casual fan finds out that Bourne isn't in this.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I'm sorry but this is just fanboy spin. General audiences for the most part liked Spider-Man 3 a LOT. It's some of the fanboys that have the problem with it.

Um, I'm a fan that liked SM3 despite it not being as good as the first two and had to keep hearing from A LOT of general audience members whether in college classes or around how much they hated it while I spent my time defending it. So, unsure where exactly general audience liking it is being seen....

Not to mention on IMDB it is the lowest rated Spidey movie and on Rottentomatoes only 50%.

It grossed significantly less than Spider-Man 2. AND 44.9% of it's box office was during it's opening weekend. Also I kept on looking - that's the HIGHEST percent for any superhero movie for it's first weekend ever - even TDK. AND the only films with such a high percent that I've found looking at several blockbusters the past couple of years - it should have made at the very least as much as SM2 if people did like it with that percentage rate. The interest was there then it fell. It declined and to a number less than SM2 despite a better start. How is that showing general audience liking it? If anything stats show the audience being eager due to SM2 pre-release then dropping after seeing it.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Um, I'm a fan that liked SM3 despite it not being as good as the first two and had to keep hearing from A LOT of general audience members whether in college classes or around how much they hated it while I spent my time defending it. So, unsure where exactly general audience liking it is being seen....

Not to mention on IMDB it is the lowest rated Spidey movie and on Rottentomatoes only 50%.

It grossed significantly less than Spider-Man 2. AND 44.9% of it's box office was during it's opening weekend. Also I kept on looking - that's the HIGHEST percent for any superhero movie for it's first weekend ever - even TDK. AND the only films with such a high percent that I've found looking at several blockbusters the past couple of years - it should have made at the very least as much as SM2 if people did like it with that percentage rate. The interest was there then it fell. It declined and to a number less than SM2 despite a better start. How is that showing general audience liking it? If anything stats show the audience being eager due to SM2 pre-release then dropping after seeing it.

Exactly. It took a 62% nose dive in it's second weekend of release, compared to only 38% for SM1 and 48% for SM2. If the GA liked SM3 as much as the previous two installements it would have probably crossed a billion.

It left a bad taste in peoples mouths. Not like Batman & Robin or X3, but bitter for sure. The franschise needed a reboot and a new voice.