The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[hatebox]

TDKR will make at least 170m OW - however popular Bane is or isn't the goodwill from TDK will be easily enough to get it there, and 2012 is proving to be massive in general. I don't think many actually expect it to beat TDK's domestic total of course...

 

[Tony Stark]

Rises will have the opening weekend record...but, it won't surpass Knight's total box office...unless Nolan really went beyond Knight.

But, Rises feels nothing like Iron Man 2 in terms of buzz...nothing.

It could get the record, but I'm skeptical. There just isn't the draw there was for TDK. Bane is really not in the top 5 Batman villians. Even though it will be nice to see him done correctly, Bane is not the draw that the Joker was, and Tom Hardy is not the draw that Heath Ledger was. People will go to see the conclusion but this does not have the buzz that TDK has and certainly not what DH pt 2 had.

Not to make light of the tragedy surrounding Heath, but his untimely death added alot to the anticipation of the movie, plus his incredible performance. Nothing against Tom Hardy, but he's not going to match that.

Again adding to the fact that most 3rd installments of Superhero movies are less than successful.

 

[hatebox]

I think you're overestimating how much people care about the villain for this one. Enough people who saw TDK will come back to see how the story develops/ends to give it a massive OW. After that it's up to how good the film is to generate word of mouth.

 

[Tony Stark]

TDKR will make at least 170m OW - however popular Bane is or isn't the goodwill from TDK will be easily enough to get it there, and 2012 is proving to be massive in general. I don't think many actually expect it to beat TDK's domestic total of course...

It could make that, I'm only saying that I think Avengers has a better chance of making that than TDKR. There's also a good chance that neither one does.

I understand why people are giving TDKR the benefit of the doubt, but I pretty much knew when they announced Bane as the main villian they were taking a step backward with the franchise. It's not what the fans wanted and no matter how much faith you have in Nolan, that's going to have an effect.

 

[Tony Stark]

You're overestimating how much people care about the villain for this one. Enough people who saw TDK will come back to see how the story develeps/ends to give it a massive OW. After that it's up to how good the film is to generate word of mouth.

You're underestimating that. Of course it's going to have a large opening, where did I say otherwise. X3 had a big opening even though it sucked monkey balls.

I'm saying that this film to me does not have the feel that TDK has or that Harry Potter 7 had, and those are the record holders.

If you don't think Joker being in TDK was an effect from going from a modest showing in Batman Begins to the huge opening TDK had, well I don't know what you're thinking.

These are all just opinions, the problem is some of you are stating that TDKR will bar none be the record holder.

 

[The Morningstar]

Joker and Ledger's unfortunate passing built the hype for TDK. But TDKR is the follow up to TDK, it'll be big.

 

[hatebox]

If you don't think Joker being in TDK was an effect from going from a modest showing in Batman Begins to the huge opening TDK had, well I don't know what you're thinking.

No need to put words in my mouth - only a fool would deny the appeal of the Joker.

But, whether you mean to or not, you sound you're projecting your own ambivelance of Bane onto the general anticipation for this film. Warner Brothers know it's the story and the director (who made 800m with Inception) that are now going to be the main draws for this film, hence the 'from Christopher Nolan' and 'the epic conclusion' title cards all over the teaser and trailer. And the hardcore marketing hasn't even begun since the film's 3 months away.

Whoever the villain, there's currently no reason to think the OW of TDKR won't increase from TDK given how good WOM was from that film, which practically ended on a cliffhanger. The story is now the draw.

 

[Flemm]

I have a hard time seeing TDKR not opening huge. I mean, weren't the Avengers and TDKR breaking each other's records in terms of trailer downloads and such? It wouldn't surprise me if the same thing basically happens at the box office.

Audiences absolutely loved TDK, I don't see them staying away from the follow-up.

It's great news that Avengers looks primed to really blow up in a big way, though. This whole thing could have gone so wrong, but it looks like it's going to pay off.

 

[DarthAlani]

TDKR is going to open huge no way around it. Nolan's name is huge right now, TDK was a much loved film. Batman films have broken the opening weekend record 4 times, TDKR will continue that trend.

 

[Tony Stark]

No one's saying it won't open huge we're talking about wheather it will break the record or not. So far there has only been one film in Potter 7 that surpassed that, Hunger Games came close, which is amazing for March.

I think it's dumb to say that any movie has it in the bag to beat that record where in the last 4 years only one film has done it.

Of course they loved TDK it was a great movie, and it had that epic feel of a summer movie.

I do think the choice of Bane over Riddler or Penguin will have a negative effect on the film, because that's who the fans wanted to see. Bane was really only popular in the 90's for breaking Batman's back, he's not a top 5 villian in Batman's rogue gallery.

 

[hatebox]

I do think the choice of Bane over Riddler or Penguin will have a negative effect on the film, because that's who the fans wanted to see. Bane was really only popular in the 90's for breaking Batman's back, he's not a top 5 villian in Batman's rogue gallery.

Wouldn't the fans by definition turn up either way, though? And for all the talk of Bane, they still have Catwoman who's arguably second only to the Joker in notoriety...

 

[T"Challa]

The problem is most of the other films that you didn't list are probably going to do poorly. The only thing saving the BO now was the unbelievable March that we had where you had Hunger Games, 21 Jump Street and The Lorax all doing very well. You've had some moderate successes in the Vow and Safe House, but most everything else this year has been a dud, including the hugely promoted Disney backed John Carter and Warner's unnecessary sequel Wrath of the Titans.

i think there will be plenty of movies that will do decent to good business

Dark Shadows (Depp factor)
Battleship (Heavy CGI spectacle and Rihanna)
Sno w White and the huntsman
GI Joe
Expendables
Bourne Legacy
Total Recall,
Resident Evil
Django Unchained
Taken 2

its going to be a good year imo

 

[DarthAlani]

Bane is far more formidable than Riddler or Penguin. With Riddler the film would have been about mind games, which is what we got in TDK.

Bane can challenge Batman physically and intellectually.

 

[Tony Stark]

Wouldn't the fans by definition turn up either way, though? And for all the talk of Bane, they still have Catwoman who's arguably second only to the Joker in notoriety...

Fans of the comics yes, but the people who showed up for joker and Ledger? That remains to be seen.

Look at the audience boost from the first film. If it could retain 90% of that, it would be a huge accomplishment.

Put it this way, if TDKR opened to 155, would that be a failure in your mind?

 

[BigThor]

Bane is far more formidable than Riddler or Penguin. With Riddler the film would have been about mind games, which is what we got in TDK.

Bane can challenge Batman physically and intellectually.

Very true, I like Bane because of those same reasons and few Batman villains are able to do both.

 

[hatebox]

Put it this way, if TDKR opened to 155, would that be a failure in your mind?

Failiure? No. Disappointment? Yes - for WB at least, who I'm sure expect this to open significantly higher than TDK and will spend money marketing it accordingly.

As for me personally, it's all academic. I just want a good movie, etc, etc. Box office only matters in terms of influencing what direction studios take with sequels, and I can wait a good few years for any Batman reinvention after Nolan's departed.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Failiure? No. Disappointment? Yes - for WB at least, who I'm sure expect this to open significantly higher than TDK and will spend money marketing it accordingly.

As for me personally, it's all academic. I just want a good movie, etc, etc. Box office only matters in terms of influencing what direction studios take with sequels, and I can wait a good few years for any Batman reinvention after Nolan's departed.

I don't see how that's a disappointment. It puts it in the top OW's of all time, I'm sure the movie will be huge, but I don't quite understand where the draw will come from other than it being the last Nolan Batman movie.

 

[Tony Stark]

No way would they be disappointed with that. No way on earth. Only 3 movies ever hit in that ball park. You don't open "significantly higher" when you've set the mark. The stock holders are already happy.

This is why I think people need to cool their heels. It's one thing to set a high mark, it's another to set unrealistic expectation. And that's true for either Avengers or TDKR.

 

[ElMariachi]

Riddler would have been a mistake. Way too similar to Joker in TDK. Bane was a good choice because he isn't a mob type character like all the other villains in the Nolaneverse. The thing that could hurt TDKR's legs is if they went too political. There is a large segment of the population that isn't going to want to be preached to by Catwoman or Bane telling them to pay more taxes and money is evil. That could hurt repeat viewings from some people, if that's the case.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

BTW hatebox... your avatar creeps me the **** out.

 

[jmc]

There's some bizarre logic downplaying Rises.

 

[Marvin]

The joker buzz of raging around this time in 2008.
That being said Inception didn't need heath to do the insane numbers it did. Just Nolan making a word of mouth picture.

I think TDK's record is safe from just about anything this year.

 

[The Morningstar]

TDK doesn't have the record, Harry Potter does. And i think The Hobbit will make some big noise. A new LOTR film after a decade wait? Anticipation will be monstrous.

 

[jmc]

The biggest thing against Rises topping TDK's opening is not the lack of Joker or anything else, it's going to be the films length. If it's close to 3 hours that means fewer sessions.

 

[Anita18]

The biggest thing against Rises topping TDK's opening is not the lack of Joker or anything else, it's going to be the films length. If it's close to 3 hours that means fewer sessions.

I think it's been proven that that doesn't stop it. Theaters could always devote more screens to it, if the demand was that high.