The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

The biggest thing against Rises topping TDK's opening is not the lack of Joker or anything else, it's going to be the films length. If it's close to 3 hours that means fewer sessions.

Is TDKR rumoured to be close to 3 hours?! (haven't kept up with it)

 

[Bim]

TDK doesn't have the record, Harry Potter does. And i think The Hobbit will make some big noise. A new LOTR film after a decade wait? Anticipation will be monstrous.

I think The Hobbit might be the winner in terms of box office this year, but we'll see. I suck at bo predictions, so i wont even try it this time around lol.

 

[Marvin]

TDK doesn't have the record, Harry Potter does. And i think The Hobbit will make some big noise. A new LOTR film after a decade wait? Anticipation will be monstrous.

I didn't mean to say TDK has the record, I meant it's numbers are going to be safe this year. As far as opening, world wide, and for sure domestic.

Hobbit represents a return to beloved material...not sure when that has ever worked out as of late. A decade long wait can be a good thing but it can also be a horrible thing. No one can argue that it would have been better served coming fresh of the hype of the oscar winning trilogy.

There are kids today that know nothing of the cultural film experience that was 10 years ago. Not saying it's going to not do well, but I think these issues will be brought up to no end post release. I haven't read the books but have they really replaced the fellowship with a group of dwarfs?

 

[ElMariachi]

I think it's stupid to have the Hobbit in two movies. It's a short book and the movie has to be watered down a bit.

 

[Flemm]

I think it's stupid to have the Hobbit in two movies. It's a short book and the movie has to be watered down a bit.

I'm not sure. There are so many opportunities to expand on what's there in the original narrative, which is relatively schematic compared to the LotR. And to tie it into the later story, which is something Tolkien was unable to do for obvious reasons.

I'm not a huge fan of the trilogy, but that Hobbit trailer was the best trailer I've seen since Trek '09, I think.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Both the Hobbit and tdkr are going to be unquestionably big at the BO.

The only real question with tdkr is whether it will gross more than tdk. Pros in favor are nolan's bigger name since tdk and the current tendency of sequels to make more. Cons are the fact that tdk overperformed because of the hype surrounding HL's death and 'last great performance', history of non-joker batman not doing as well as joker batman, and the fact that HL's performance as the joker was the biggest factor in that movie perception as a great movie.

Just have to wait and see.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Edit: double post.

 

[Spade]

I don't think it'll matter if Rises is actually three hours long. The Dark Knight practically goes into a fourth act after the Joker's caught. Normally, that turns off the general audience. It still made a ton of cash. Batman's super popular and people will probably be very interested in seeing how the current movie storyline ends.

 

[warhorse78]

I'm not sure. There are so many opportunities to expand on what's there in the original narrative, which is relatively schematic compared to the LotR. And to tie it into the later story, which is something Tolkien was unable to do for obvious reasons.

I'm not a huge fan of the trilogy, but that Hobbit trailer was the best trailer I've seen since Trek '09, I think.

Same here, it's my favorite trailer of the year. As much as I liked the Avenger's trailers (the Japanese one is my favorite thus far) I still like Bourne Legacy more.

 

[ElMariachi]

I'm not sure. There are so many opportunities to expand on what's there in the original narrative, which is relatively schematic compared to the LotR. And to tie it into the later story, which is something Tolkien was unable to do for obvious reasons.

I'm not a huge fan of the trilogy, but that Hobbit trailer was the best trailer I've seen since Trek '09, I think.

Hopefully that's the case. I completely agree about The Hobbit trailer. The dwarves song made the trailer in my opinion. Also agree on ST09. People were hating on that movie until the trailer hit.

 

[ElMariachi]

Not to get too off-topic but how about this?

Chris Nolan as MODOK for Captain America 2.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I'm definitely not that big of a LotR fan so I probably won't be seeing it anytime soon. I just couldn't think of sitting through 3+ hour movies.

 

[warhorse78]

I'm definitely not that big of a LotR fan so I probably won't be seeing it anytime soon. I just couldn't think of sitting through 3+ hour movies.

Depends, if the movie is within your interest and it is well done, it's easy to sit through a long movie, and not exactly realize it. Kind of like the internet. It's amazing, I sit down to chat, it's about 6PM, and long and behold, I get up to make some coffee, and realize I had been on the computer for 4 hours straight.

 

[Shadowlord X]

It's amazing to watch a slimy money-grubbing Hollywood technique take hold.

First WB splits HP&TDH into 2 movies.

Then, bam, Twilight and LOTR follow suit.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Not to get too off-topic but how about this?

Chris Nolan as MODOK for Captain America 2.

Only if CAP decapitates him for real.

 

[TheGambler]

Wow, still 3 weeks to go and it's already tracking $125M+ opening weekend. Just remember, these are just trackings and films mostly do much better than what trackings suggest. Hunger Games was on track for $70M opening 3 weeks before the release, and look how that one exploded to the roof.

 

[ElMariachi]

Only if CAP decapitates him for real.

Seeing Chris Nolan's floating, talking giant head shooting lasers would be worth at least $300 million at the box office.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Depends, if the movie is within your interest and it is well done, it's easy to sit through a long movie, and not exactly realize it. Kind of like the internet. It's amazing, I sit down to chat, it's about 6PM, and long and behold, I get up to make some coffee, and realize I had been on the computer for 4 hours straight.

That happens to me all the time, usually late at night when I intend to go to bed by midnight but find myself still up at 4 AM.

As for long movies, I think the only ones I've ever sat through and enjoyed were the Godfather movies. Basically, once things get over 3 hours, there has to be a good point you are trying to make to justify that length.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Seeing Chris Nolan's floating, talking giant head shooting lasers would be worth at least $300 million at the box office.

LMAO! Indeed.

 

[Raiden]

Wow, still 3 weeks to go and it's already tracking $125M+ opening weekend. Just remember, these are just trackings and films mostly do much better than what trackings suggest. Hunger Games was on track for $70M opening 3 weeks before the release, and look how that one exploded to the roof.

I think that $125 mil prediction is just a conservative estimation. I have no doubt that TA will open much, much bigger than that.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I think that $125 mil prediction is just a conservative estimation. I have no doubt that TA will open much, much bigger than that.

I think they'll continue with that so that when they do make over their estimation, they can tell investors they did better than expected.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

It's amazing to watch a slimy money-grubbing Hollywood technique take hold.

First WB splits HP&TDH into 2 movies.

Then, bam, Twilight and LOTR follow suit.

If movies like LOTR and HP&TDH weren't split, they would be insanely long. I don't think a lot of people would want to sit through those movies for hours on end, I know I wouldn't. It's not always "money-grubbing", sometimes it makes sense.

 

[jacobed]

The Hobbit was going to be two movies as soon as they announced it which had nothing to do with Harry Potter because at the time the second movie was going to be the bridge movie between The Hobbit and LOTR but they changed it into The Hobbit pt. 2.

Harry Potter needed to be split in 2, there really isn't any subplots that could be taken out of the book in order for it to work as one movie.

The Avengers is going to easily make a billion dollars.There is no movie in May to contend with it, it's a huge epic movie, and its in 3d.

 

[Iceman]

It's amazing to watch a slimy money-grubbing Hollywood technique take hold.

First WB splits HP&TDH into 2 movies.

Then, bam, Twilight and LOTR follow suit.

Let them make money if the films are good. If the first one's bad the 2nd one will underperform anyway.

 

[Anita18]

That happens to me all the time, usually late at night when I intend to go to bed by midnight but find myself still up at 4 AM.

As for long movies, I think the only ones I've ever sat through and enjoyed were the Godfather movies. Basically, once things get over 3 hours, there has to be a good point you are trying to make to justify that length.

LOL same on both counts. Especially the first one...

And yeah, I sat down to watch movies like Godfather and The Right Stuff, not know how LONG each of them were. But dang they were good, so they kept my attention the whole time.