The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Pond]

TDKR will do well at the BO, but to do GREAT, i mean, TDK great... It must be liked by the audience. I mean REALLY liked. Thats made by the same people and continues the story of TDK makes it reasoinable to entertain the notion that it should do similar, but in the end the reason Avengers is an unexpected jugernaut is beacuse people LOVE it. As nobody has seen Batman yet, that WOW factor that propulses from good or great to jugernaut in the box office is, as for now, a big question mark.

 

[Raiden]

But TDKR has a benefit of being the last big blockbuster of the summer. I mean what comes after it? Expendables 2 won't do much to it. It really has the rest of the summer without any threatening competition. Avengers had the beginning and TDKR has the end. And depending on how good TDKR, is it's possible it can do alot. As much as TDK remains to be seen but I dont' think it will make as much as Avengers.

I think TDKR will become a blockbuster, but I don't think it will beat either The Avengers nor TDK. Yes, it's the last Nolan Batman movie and that should generate alot of interest, but I think the lack of Joker as well as a more somber and darker movie will not have the widespread appeal that plays well across the demographics, which is something that separates a mere blockbuster from a true phenomenon. Joker was the character that had this kind of mass appeal which was the key for TDK's amazing success, and I don't see either Bane or Catwoman replicating that in the sequel.

Btw, here's the Tuesday figures:

1. MIB 3 - $5.6M ($75M) 2. THE AVENGERS - $3.2M ($527M)

I think it is extremely impressive for The Avengers to only gross 2 million less than MIB3, don't you think?

 

[Jordanstine]

I think TDKR will become a blockbuster, but I don't think it will beat either The Avengers nor TDK. Yes, it's the last Nolan Batman movie and that should generate alot of interest, but I think the lack of Joker as well as a more somber and darker movie will not have the widespread appeal that plays well across the demographics, which is something that separates a mere blockbuster from a true phenomenon. Joker was the character that had this kind of mass appeal which was the key for TDK's amazing success, and I don't see either Bane or Catwoman replicating that in the sequel.

Btw, here's the Tuesday figures:

1. MIB 3 - $5.6M ($75M) 2. THE AVENGERS - $3.2M ($527M)

I think it is extremely impressive for The Avengers to only gross 2 million less than MIB3, don't you think?

It should be close to $532 million by Thursday (just $1.3 million short of TDK).

But it's looking at a $21 million weekend and should surpass the $550 million mark in another record speed by Sunday!

 

[Superhero 101]

Yay can't wait for this weekend for Avengers to surpass HP8

 

[Iceman]

It should be close to $532 million by Thursday (just $1.3 million short of TDK).

But it's looking at a $21 million weekend and should surpass the $550 million mark in another record speed by Sunday!

Been on hols so missed the recent numbers. Yeah, $550m record is going down this weekend!! Might have to wait a bit for $600m but it's not far away any more.

 

[warhorse78]

Sure it'll do alot. You can do alot and still come in under TDK. And Expendables 2 is greater competition than anything TA faced in it's first 3 weeks(it's probably about the same level as MIB3). But I think The Bourne Legacy is the one that'll knock it out of #1 first, giving TDKR 2 weeks at #1.

Same here. I've been anticipating this one for some time. Loved the Bourne movies, and love Jeremy Renner. I think this movie is going to rock!

 

[Spider-Fan]

The problem that TDKR will have if the novelization spoilers are true, is that it is a downer of a story line and several things that happen to key characters that may upset viewers. This was part of the problem that X3 had, although, X3 had way worse problems than just that.

Needless to say, I expect it will open big, but have a lower multiplier than TDK did. It still should make a billion WW, so long as it gets into China.

Some of us don't want to know things like this so let's keep those spoilers in the Batman area

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Yeah, I was going to say the same thing but I didn't know if those were necessarily spoilers.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Expendables 2 is,,,probably about the same level as MIB3

I agree with everything you said except this. Expendables will probably make more than MIB3 and open bigger too...but if the story is bad, i may be wrong. This just seems like everything the first movie was supposed to be but was not because they couldnt get Van Damme in the 1st one.

TDKR - i think there is a slight chance it could one up TDK - IF ITS STORY IS COMPELLING enough. If the pacing is right and it has high replay or rewatch value, it can generate WOM. I would be hesitant to judge the movie before screenings and critics reviews come pouring in. If the tomatometer is at 99% and steady, then that would be a sign that something is special. We shall see. What i am trying to say is TDKR will not open to more than 200 million, but it may have long legs if the story is as engrossing if not more so than TDK.

The Bane is not so popular argument is played to death, but if Bane is portrayed by Hardy the way Ledger embodied Joker, this role can achieve cult-status and become iconic because of this film. Nolan is certainly capable of pulling it off.

On topic - TA made $3,266,753 yesterday Tuesday. for a grand total of $527,173,955 it maintains its place at #4 on the all time DOM BO nipping at the heels of Bruce Wayne.

 

[The Ironstar]

Y,we don't really know how well TDKR will do,but to quote Chris Berman ("That's why we play the game.")

Also I just realized the Summer Olympics will start from July 27 to August 12.

 

[LauraT]

On topic - TA made $3,266,753 yesterday Tuesday. for a grand total of $527,173,955 it maintains its place at #4 on the all time DOM BO nipping at the heels of Bruce Wayne.

That means it should pass TDK before the weekend. If it gets $20 mill + the way it should next weekenmd that sets it up for the next hurdle of $600 mill. t:

 

[04nbod]

Not sure if it will help much now but the UK has a 4 day weekend this weekend to celebrate the Queen's Diamond Jubilee. Movies for all the family on wide release basically consist of MIB and Avengers. Prometheus is the big new release.

 

[spider-neil]

Not sure if it will help much now but the UK has a 4 day weekend this weekend to celebrate the Queen's Diamond Jubilee. Movies for all the family on wide release basically consist of MIB and Avengers. Prometheus is the big new release.

I think prometheus will crush the competition this weekend.

 

[spider-neil]

Tickets for Amazing Spider-man are now on sale for the UK BFI IMAX (largest in the UK) and the demand is crashing the BFI servers. So much for there being no interest in the new Spidey movie.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So it begins.

lmao!

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

You know... The greatest tragedy of Firefly isnt just that it was cancelled; it is that after that it was cancelled, most people who have watched it, who are not sci fi or western fans, whedon fans, or even tv series fans, LOVED IT. You get the impression that handled inteligently, it could have been a smash hit. Even my grandmother likes Serenity, and she hates movies from beyond 1970. Same with other Whedon stuff. When a lot of his work gets the change to be seen, its actually quite, quite popular. Dr. Horible was the same, and his Astonishing X-Men run had people droling.

Some hate it, of course, but it is surprising to me how many people from what you could call the mainstream are on the same wavelenght with him, mostly, curiously, not genre fans.
And now this.

For all the "he is a cult creator" vibe that seems to emanate from him, the guy actually has far more mainstream acceptance posibilities for much of his work (not all, mind you) than he is given credit for.

Makes me think on the whys and perhapses of the true "niche" nature of those who are put on that wagon... Are they all really just understood or liked by few or are we talking of not giving oportunities?

Is he really the geek director for geeks when so many people who dont know even what a geek is tend to get in love with his work the minute they give it a chance?

Whedon is one case (not the only one) where our need to label a creator is not doing him or us any favours.

Sorry for the rant. Just popped into my mind.

I cant speak for Buffy, Angel or Dollhouse as I never really watched them, but as soon as I watched Firefly I was hooked, then through me watching it my whole family started too as well, I am talking, brothers, parents, aunties, the works. And then we all loved Serenity as well and all in my faimly who have seen TA have loved it as well. Whedon is just a talented guy, simple as, the sad fact is not much of his stuff makes it outside of cult fanbases but with the success of TA, you never know.

If we got another series of Firefly or even more unlikely another Serenity movie out of all this, I would be ecstatic.

 

[04nbod]

I think prometheus will crush the competition this weekend.

Its a 15 though. Both MIB and Avengers are 12A and parents have 4 days to kill while her Maj suffers a boat ride, a glass carriage ride, getting peered at by millions, and getting serenaded by artists chosen by Gary frackin' Barlow! I bet she would rather watch The Avengers this weekend

 

[Raiden]

I think prometheus will crush the competition this weekend.

Since it is rated R, I think it would be hard for it to be crushing all competition, particularly against other PG-13 blockbusters. However, I'm pretty amped for Prometheus and I hope it does really well.

 

[Jordanstine]

Since it is rated R, I think it would be hard for it to be crushing all competition, particularly against other PG-13 blockbusters. However, I'm pretty amped for Prometheus and I hope it does really well.

Exactly.

I had Prometheus originally pegged for $75 million OW and I'm thinking I may have over projected. I would be very surprised if Prometheus cracks higher than that. People now are projecting more on the $60 million after MIB3's weekend.

 

[Jordanstine]

Y,we don't really know how well TDKR will do,but to quote Chris Berman ("That's why we play the game.")

Also I just realized the Summer Olympics will start from July 27 to August 12.

TDKR can break the midnight record, and will most likely have the higher midnight numbers than TA.

 

[Mysteryman]

I think prometheus will crush the competition this weekend.

Impossible.
It comes out next weekend .

 

[Tony Stark]

TDKR can break the midnight record, and will most likely have the higher midnight numbers than TA.

Yeah, I think I said that at the time. I initially pegged TA to do 13-15 Midnight, because May midnight showings do not do well because the 18-25 crowd that populates those showings are still in school and have finals and such.

When it did 18M, I knew it would break the weekend record.

 

[Tony Stark]

Some of us don't want to know things like this so let's keep those spoilers in the Batman area

Sorry, was trying to be as vague as I could. I didn't and won't elaborate.

 

[Jordanstine]

$2.5 estimate today.

Bringning the total to $529.6M.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Sorry, was trying to be as vague as I could. I didn't and won't elaborate.

That's fine and it doesn't really spoil anything for me, but I think this goes for everyone: I don't go to the Avengers forum to talk about TDKR (and all too often, every forum on this site somehow becomes the Batman forum, and it...is...ANNOYING!!!), nor do I go to a Box Office thread to discuss the quality of the movie. While your comment was about the story effecting the box office, this is where we start to toe the line of spoiling the movie itself. So, I ask everyone as a courtesy to me and others: please let's not talk about TDKR in here, unless it directly relates to the topic of its Box Office. I, as well as others, am excited to see the movie, and don't want my experience tainted because someone in a non-related forum told me what happens.