The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - Part 13

[Big Bang]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...-century-fox-is-bound-to-happen/#6f8158ef1976

Where there is smoke....t:

 

[Big Bang]

Another blockbuster deal. Amazon took the bait on doing a Lord of the Rings show.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/amazon-...tv-series-multi-season-commitment-1202207065/

This is exactly the kind of thing that is leading Disney to buy Fox's entertainment divisions and create its own stream service.

 

[ADollarADay]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...-century-fox-is-bound-to-happen/#6f8158ef1976

If what this dude is saying is true, i.e. rumblings about Disney acquiring Fox began last year and several months ago both companies were doing analysis and pros/cons of the deal, and a few weeks ago they started negotiations.....well, you can put 2 and 2 together. The rumors of them working together and Disney starting to loosen up on X-Men/FF started last year too, IIRC.

Another blockbuster deal. Amazon took the bait on doing a Lord of the Rings show.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/amazon-...tv-series-multi-season-commitment-1202207065/

This is exactly the kind of thing that is leading Disney to buy Fox's entertainment divisions and create its own stream service.

Pretty much. Amazon paid 200-250MM for the rights. That's before any costs associated with actually creating the product are taken into consideration. With competition like this, you need to get bigger. Fox can't compete and wants out. Disney needs to get bigger. Funnily enough, the reason I think other companies, especially the AAA, and especially Amazon, is are not being aggressive in purchasing Fox is because of the tied up rights they have with Disney. Can't do XMen tv shows without the mouse, can't do FF TV shows without the mouse, have to pay the mouse for every single theatrical movie, if they don't release the movie theatrically they lose the rights, they are losing 5/6 Star Wars distribution rights in 2 1/2 years, can't do deadpool tv shows, can't have Avatar in any theme park worldwide. Fox's best movie/tv shows franchises are tied up with Disney with a few notable exceptions.

 

[Big Bang]

If what this dude is saying is true, i.e. rumblings about Disney acquiring Fox began last year and several months ago both companies were doing analysis and pros/cons of the deal, and a few weeks ago they started negotiations.....well, you can put 2 and 2 together. The rumors of them working together and Disney starting to loosen up on X-Men/FF started last year too, IIRC.

There was a bit of a shift right around then. We could be closer to a deal then first assumed. Even if we are, I don't expect to hear anything until well into 2018.

Pretty much. Amazon paid 200-250MM for the rights. That's before any costs associated with actually creating the product are taken into consideration. With competition like this, you need to get bigger. Fox can't compete and wants out. Disney needs to get bigger. Funnily enough, the reason I think other companies, especially the AAA, and especially Amazon, is are not being aggressive in purchasing Fox is because of the tied up rights they have with Disney. Can't do XMen tv shows without the mouse, can't do FF TV shows without the mouse, have to pay the mouse for every single theatrical movie, if they don't release the movie theatrically they lose the rights, they are losing 5/6 Star Wars distribution rights in 2 1/2 years, can't do deadpool tv shows, can't have Avatar in any theme park worldwide. Fox's best movie/tv shows franchises are tied up with Disney with a few notable exceptions.

They are so intertwined with Disney on multiple fronts, that it wouldn't be worth the investment for anyone else. Only way anyone else gets involved is to maybe buy certain properties.

IMO, it's a done deal.

 

[ADollarADay]

There was a bit of a shift right around then. We could be closer to a deal then first assumed. Even if we are, I don't expect to hear anything until well into 2018.

Not hearing anything until well into 2018 means it doesn't get cleared until well into 2019 and you don't really see the benefits until the 2020s. IMHO, Iger would want this to clear prior to his retirement (if he doesn't extend again) in mid 2019.

 

[First Avenger]

They are gonna announce it in the post credit scene of Infinity War.

 

[Web-Head]

 

[Tymminator]

Not hearing anything until well into 2018 means it doesn't get cleared until well into 2019 and you don't really see the benefits until the 2020s. IMHO, Iger would want this to clear prior to his retirement (if he doesn't extend again) in mid 2019.

It is because of stuff like that among other things is the reason why I believe we will hear something, one way or the other, at the very latest late December.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If there are other interested parties, that could create a sense of urgency.

Disney would likely try get this done before others have a chance to put together their own offers.

 

[Big Bang]

Not hearing anything until well into 2018 means it doesn't get cleared until well into 2019 and you don't really see the benefits until the 2020s. IMHO, Iger would want this to clear prior to his retirement (if he doesn't extend again) in mid 2019.

Maybe you're right. I keep discounting the "Iger Effect". This is the bookend of his legacy after all.

Saving the Disney-Pixar relationship, installing people who reinvigorated Disney's in house animation studio, to landing Marvel and LucasFilm. Now he essentially gets make Marvel and LucasFilm essentially whole again, and under the Disney banner. Topped with brining in some of Fox's properties.

It's easy to forget the impact Iger has had on the company. Looking back to the Eisner days and how bad things got for their product back then.

He may very well put things into motion soon. I have my doubts, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if he does.

 

[DyfeddRex]

I am to the point of thinking the step back is both sides looking for regulatory and anti-trust hurdles, to nix those before they arise, and maybe, for a how to announce it. Fox tied up a chunk of change in this X-men ramp up we are seeing, and I'm betting they are begging for some small bit of that rev stream, to offset some of the legal costs on their side.

This said, who knows. Is there any major cons in the near future? Talking one with say, a hundred thousand headcount? That is where I would expect it. Think about it. SW and the Marvel props, the place to break it would be a comic con.

Also, maybe at the red carpet event for SW. Or one of the promos for it. Hell, could even be something they just tell Mark Ruffalo not to talk about. That might guarantee it being leaked, but controlled this time around.

 

[Big Bang]

I am to the point of thinking the step back is both sides looking for regulatory and anti-trust hurdles, to nix those before they arise, and maybe, for a how to announce it. Fox tied up a chunk of change in this X-men ramp up we are seeing, and I'm betting they are begging for some small bit of that rev stream, to offset some of the legal costs on their side.

This said, who knows. Is there any major cons in the near future? Talking one with say, a hundred thousand headcount? That is where I would expect it. Think about it. SW and the Marvel props, the place to break it would be a comic con.

Also, maybe at the red carpet event for SW. Or one of the promos for it. Hell, could even be something they just tell Mark Ruffalo not to talk about. That might guarantee it being leaked, but controlled this time around.

Honestly, Disney will announce it when the time is right, and they'll announce at a place and time so nothing overshadows their news.

Step back in time for a minute. When they bought Marvel, Bob Iger first appeared on....CNBC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddsnYUjsbOc

 

[DyfeddRex]

Good point. So figure a little bit for Fox/NewsCorp to juggle some ownerships on their side, set up a new US holding for the Fox Network (if I remember, it has to be a US corp to hold US stations, that was one of the sticking points when he first bought the old UHF licenses and set up the network), and get a time set to announce the deal, after asking for a very quiet vetting by the Regulatory Agencies to make it a rubber stamp by the time it gets announced. And to set up the time line for transfers.

 

[wobbly]

For a deal of this magnitude I'm not sure they could keep it hush hush waiting for a opportune event to announce it officially?

 

[Boom]

They are gonna announce it in the post credit scene of Infinity War.

Maybe for Avengers 4 in 2019, and that's only if this deal goes through sooner rather than later.

 

[Web-Head]

If it happens sooner than later I'd be curious how they'd handle the Marvel films next year.

Just give me Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Alice Eve as Reed and Sue in the MCU's Fantastic 4 and I'll be happy t:

 

[DawnWarrior]

Still rooting for Hugh Dancy and Claire Danes, so we can get a Hannibal reunion out of it when the let Mad Mikkelsen play Doom.

 

[Stark Bauer]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...-century-fox-is-bound-to-happen/#6f8158ef1976

That was the strongest argument on why this deal needs to happen and may have already happened.

I just realized that Avatar is probably bigger than any potential deal Disney could get - including X Men-Fantastic Four-Simpsons-Alien-Planet of the Apes combined!!!

 

[Orba]

Pretty much. Amazon paid 200-250MM for the rights. That's before any costs associated with actually creating the product are taken into consideration. With competition like this, you need to get bigger. Fox can't compete and wants out. Disney needs to get bigger. Funnily enough, the reason I think other companies, especially the AAA, and especially Amazon, is are not being aggressive in purchasing Fox is because of the tied up rights they have with Disney. Can't do XMen tv shows without the mouse, can't do FF TV shows without the mouse, have to pay the mouse for every single theatrical movie, if they don't release the movie theatrically they lose the rights, they are losing 5/6 Star Wars distribution rights in 2 1/2 years, can't do deadpool tv shows, can't have Avatar in any theme park worldwide. Fox's best movie/tv shows franchises are tied up with Disney with a few notable exceptions.

The fact that theatrical releases is something I hadn't really thought about but it is something that would be of importance to some of the potential buyers. Netflix for example don't do theatrical releases so if they got Fox they would either have to sell the rights back or change their policy. Amazon I believe has a 90 days release window (or something like that) before they stream. But most of the potential buyers are looking at Fox as a long term source of streaming content but with the age of the X-Men/FF contracts the theatrical release requirement makes them of minimal use even before you get into the merchandising situation and having to share the profits.

 

[Iceman]

That was the strongest argument on why this deal needs to happen and may have already happened.

I just realized that Avatar is probably bigger than any potential deal Disney could get - including X Men-Fantastic Four-Simpsons-Alien-Planet of the Apes combined!!!

Yep, a lot of big properties they would get if they went ahead with this.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That was the strongest argument on why this deal needs to happen and may have already happened.

I just realized that Avatar is probably bigger than any potential deal Disney could get - including X Men-Fantastic Four-Simpsons-Alien-Planet of the Apes combined!!!

I think the big three are:

Star Wars
Marvel
Avatar

Disney has connections and investments related to those three properties. They might like to get Simpsons, Planet of the Apes, Alien etc., but I don't think Disney will walk away until they have, at a minimum, those big three.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

As much as I'd love to see the FF back home with Marvel, I'm not a fan of this enabling Fox to focus on their "news" enterprise. They've caused enough division with their propaganda. Heaven help us.

 

[Iceman]

As much as I'd love to see the FF back home with Marvel, I'm not a fan of this enabling Fox to focus on their "news" enterprise. They've caused enough division with their propaganda. Heaven help us.

That is the potential downside that they use the money to acquire other major news stations and expand their influence.

 

[DyfeddRex]

Considering the wave of positive towards it, from the market side, I think some form of this deal, giving us what we desire....

no, what we need, as far as the FF, to happen.

If this has been moving for as long as Hughes said in that Forbes piece, then figure it was going on before that. Like over a year ago.

Could the original horse-trading sessions for the Ego-NSTW thing have been round 1? Probably. Or, at the least, the ice-breaker.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

That is the potential downside that they use the money to acquire other major news stations and expand their influence.

And a crisis for democracy. That's a really scary thought. RIP Fairness Doctrine.

Sorry - as much as I'd love to see Johnny Storm pal around with Peter Parker and Hulk battle the Thing, I got a bad feeling about this. Nope. Not a fan.