The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[WeaponXCII]

Ok, so... I haven't been following thing too closely (really only focused on the end result of the Marvel properties returning), but I am aware that the ruling emboldens Comcast to bid on Fox. But what happens from tomorrow until July 10th (when the Fox-Disney merger is voted on)? Just Disney and Comcast trying to outbid each other? Probably goes without saying, but I guess I'm just curious as to how it'll play out in the coming months.

What can Disney do to increase the odds of things going in their favor? If things do go badly (for us), is there anything Disney can do to restore hope? A hostile takeover or something?

As the saying goes, once it's on the internet, it's there forever. Disney has already publicly said that they are getting the X-Men and Fantastic Four... how enormous of a PR nightmare (dare I even say scandal?) will it be if Iger or someone has to make a public announcement saying "Oops! Guess we didn't have the abilities and power to make it happen...." Won't Disney's esteem in the public eye plummet?

Has there ever been a situation where a company has... well, failed on such a large and public scale, and did they recover?

 

[2kt09]

Has there ever been a situation where a company has... well, failed on such a large and public scale, and did they recover?

Yeah, all the existing companies that have been bought up by or merged into the few remaining major studios as subsidiaries or joint ventures.

This a whale being swallowed up by either of 2 other whales.

 

[Detective Conan]

Has there ever been a situation where a company has... well, failed on such a large and public scale, and did they recover?

Comcast has failed two times with their hostile bids for(ironically) Disney & Time Warner.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If Disney were to fail getting Fantastic Four and X-Men, I strongly suspect that the majority of the fanboy rage would go towards Comcast and not Disney.

 

[Detective Conan]

If Disney were to fail getting Fantastic Four and X-Men, I strongly suspect that the majority of the fanboy rage would go towards Comcast and not Disney.

Dude, can you imagine back in December 14th 2017 the feeling of excitement reading this press release

“The agreement also provides Disney with the opportunity to reunite the X-Men, Fantastic Four and Deadpool with the Marvel family under one roof and create richer, more complex worlds of inter-related characters and stories that audiences have shown they love."

Only to be brutally crushed when you find out months later that deal isn’t happening and your excitement was all for naught? That’s going to suck if it does come to that.

 

[ADollarADay]

Hope the DOJ makes it clear to Comcast that they're going to challenge their deal with Fox

Because that would faze Comcast since it worked so well in the T/TWX case.

 

[Detective Conan]

Because that would faze Comcast since it worked so well in the T/TWX case.

It doesn’t have to faze Comcast but it could faze some Fox shareholders enough to make them reticent on the prospect of a merger with Comcast. Yes, the Time Warner merger with AT&T was approved but look how much of a headache it was just to get that thing through. There was so much trouble getting that to the state of approval that I still have trouble seeing a Fox Shareholder being that much swayed by a Comcast merger even if its been now shown that it can be approved. Disney likely won’t face huge pushback from the government(I don’t see the DOJ sueing to block the Disney deal anytime soon) therefore it might still prove to be the better deal in the long run.

 

[The Guard]

Stupid question...let’s say Comcast gets Fox. Might they sell the rights to the X-Men, Fantastic Four, etc to Disney for a nominal fee...or would that be aiding the competition too much?

 

[Marvel united]

Stupid question...let’s say Comcast gets Fox. Might they sell the rights to the X-Men, Fantastic Four, etc to Disney for a nominal fee...or would that be aiding the competition too much?

Nope.. No chance in hell

 

[Xeno]

And then Disney buys the bits they wanted at bargain basement prices. t:

That's the hope. The way Roberts is going all Ahab in his pursuit of Fox/Sky, there's a chance that he loads Comcast down with enough debt that he ends up with his back against the wall eventually.

 

[Detective Conan]

Stupid question...let’s say Comcast gets Fox. Might they sell the rights to the X-Men, Fantastic Four, etc to Disney for a nominal fee...or would that be aiding the competition too much?

Zero chance of that ever happening. While the Marvel rights are not the chief motivater for Comcast’s pursuit of Fox it would be delusional to think that Comcast still wouldn’t see those as valuable assets to add to their library(and their streaming service). Make no mistake: Comcast has interest in the Marvel rights even though they are not a priority for Roberts who’s more invested in other aspects of Fox’s voluminous library. No major corporation worth their salt is going to sell their IP’s with potential like the X-Men to their rival competitor and give them a bigger advanatage over them than they already have no matter how much money Disney is willing to pay. If Comcast gets Fox then they get the X-Men, Fantastic Four, and Deadpool plain and simple.

 

[The Guard]

Zero chance of that ever happening. While the Marvel rights are not the chief motivation for Comcast’s pursuit of Fox it would be delusional to think that Comcast still wouldn’t see those as valuable assets to add to the Comcast library. Make no mistake: Comcast has interest in the Marvel rights even though they are not a priority for Roberts who’s more invested in other aspects of Fox’s voluminous library. No major corporation worth their salt is going to sell their IP’s with potential like the X-Men to their rival competitor and give them a bigger advanatage over them than they already have no matter how much money Disney is willing to pay.

What about a SONYlike deal?

 

[Detective Conan]

What about a SONYlike deal?

There’s a better chance of me finding Atlantis than the Mouse and Kabletown putting their grudges aside to collaborate on bringing the Fox Marvel characters into the MCU. The relationship between Comcast & Disney is even worse than Disney’s relationship with Fox. Comcast/Universal are not in the desperate state that Sony was in and they already have the Fast &Furious franchise and Juraissic Park to keep them afloat even if they screw-up their comic properties the way Sony did. Sony didn’t have the safety net of other big IP outside Spider-Man and were desperate for some way to rehabilitate the properties. Universal will never get to that point of desperation. A Sony type deal between Disney and Comcast is a pipe-dream.

 

[Zarex]

Everything I have read is that Comcast is primarily interested in FOX's international assets rather than licensed movie franchises. A WSJ report tweeted that Amazon and Comast discussed putting in a joint bid with Amazon taking the domestic assets.

So the possibility is there for Disney to come out of this with character right given that Fox or the combined Fox-Comcast entity is going to have to pony up $1.5B to the Mouse on top of the $100B or so they already owed to close the deal. The idea that Comcast is going to hold onto Marvel rights solely out of spite was a narrative often used in regards to FOX (The Murdochs are NEVER going to sell the X-Men and FF rights to Disney!) and history has shown those folks to have been 100% incorrect.

 

[Detective Conan]

Everything I have read is that Comcast is primarily interested in FOX's international assets rather than licensed movie franchises. A WSJ report tweeted that Amazon and Comast discussed putting in a joint bid with Amazon taking the domestic assets.

So the possibility is there for Disney to come out of this with character right given that Fox or the combined Fox-Comcast entity is going to have to pony up $1.5B to the Mouse on top of the $100B or so they already owed to close the deal. The idea that Comcast is going to hold onto Marvel rights solely out of spite was a narrative often used in regards to FOX (The Murdochs are NEVER going to sell the X-Men and FF rights to Disney!) and history has shown those folks to have been 100% incorrect.

I think I remember you saying that Comcast cannot transfer the Fox Marvel rights to Universal and I’m curious as to why you think so.

 

[Marvel united]

Amazon and Comcast discussed a joint bid? Oh no... I wish Comcast and Disney would do the same

 

[Zarex]

I think I remember you saying that Comcast cannot transfer the Fox Marvel rights to Universal and I’m curious as to why you think so.

There's likely no problem with Comcast keeping the Marvel licensed franchises under the FOX banner. But I think it's unlikely that they can transfer them to another studio, in this case Universal, without the Mouse 's approval. Marvel signed off on some bad deals in the past, but I would think there would be some protection in the contracts being transferred in that manner.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Amazon and Comcast discussed a joint bid?

What? Where? When?

 

[Orba]

What? Where? When?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/green-...-up-comcasts-fox-bid-merger-frenzy-1528840347

Amazon explored the idea of splitting up the Fox assets with Comcast—whereby Amazon would get the domestic properties and Comcast would get international assets—but the idea didn’t advance so Comcast is proceeding on its own, people familiar with the matter said.

 

[DyfeddRex]

Maybe, once the ComQuack bid is made, those holding stocks in Fox can walk us through the offers, what they mean to them as stockholders (not as fanboys, 'cause I admit, you have to look out for number one (the family and self) before you look out for the fanboy/girl in you), and explain what the heck is being offered, and what it means to each of them, without revealing too much of their personal data on that.

I don't have a portfolio, these days, still trying to recover from the crash and burn I took in the downturn. Right now, I am trying to see if I've saved enough to build my cheap Captain's bed yet.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Maybe, once the ComQuack bid is made, those holding stocks in Fox can walk us through the offers, what they mean to them as stockholders (not as fanboys, 'cause I admit, you have to look out for number one (the family and self) before you look out for the fanboy/girl in you), and explain what the heck is being offered, and what it means to each of them, without revealing too much of their personal data on that.

I don't have a portfolio, these days, still trying to recover from the crash and burn I took in the downturn. Right now, I am trying to see if I've saved enough to build my cheap Captain's bed yet.

It will be interesting to see Comcast's bid and Disney's counter. There has been a lot of talk of the tax implications on Murdock as a large shareholder, but those tax implications hit all shareholders.

That plus the break-up fee, progress already made etc. etc. give Disney an advantage and allow them to win with a lower bid.

But here's a key factor that also has to be considered - Comcast's shareholders will, at some point, have to approve the deal . Look at how Comcast's stock has reacted since the beginning of this process. Shareholders don't like the idea of Comcast going into a lot of debt for this.


Imagine Comcast 'wins' with a $100 Billion offer. As a Fox board-member or Fox shareholder, do you even believe that's going to happen? You have to be skeptical in that case that Comcast's own shareholders will revolt and not approve that offer.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Everybody ralks about Roberts, Roberts, Roberts. “This is personal for Roberts” “Roberts isn’t going to allow this to happen”, but Roberts isn’t all-powerful. He has to answer to his board and shareholders and creditors. No matter how badly he wants this personally, he is limited by other forces.

 

[Dark Raven]

Will Fox still entertain offers once Comcast makes a higher bid than Disney? And if Fox are constantly entertaining offers, who is to say they won't still pull out of things later on when someone better comes along?

Comcast is like a guy who tries to steal or persuade a girl to leave another guy. If the woman is so ready to leave whenever a more attractive offer comes along, who is to say they won't do the same to that guy later on?

Can Comcast be sure that, 6 months down the line (as is the case now with Disney), Fox won't still be prepared to dump them and entertain offers from someone else who makes an even bigger and more attractive bid?

And if Disney do go bigger and outbid Comcast and Fox then goes with them, what happens if Comcast make yet another counter offer? Will Fox change their minds again and keep flip flopping every time someone ups their bid?

I can see this could be a never ending cycle between Comcast and Disney with a conversation going like this:

Comcast: "Let's see you match this. If you want Fox, then up your bid."

Disney: "Oh we can do this all day if we wanted to."

Comcast: "Fine. Then up your bid."

Disney: "No. Up yours."

 

[NHawk19]

The Disney shareholders vote in July to authorize or not. The vote packets with specifics are being sent. I've seen 3 of them now.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Will Fox still entertain offers once Comcast makes a higher bid than Disney? And if Fox are constantly entertaining offers, who is to say they won't still pull out of things later on when someone better comes along?

Comcast is like a guy who tries to steal or persuade a girl to leave another guy. If the woman is so ready to leave whenever a more attractive offer comes along, who is to say they won't do the same to that guy later on?

Can Comcast be sure that, 6 months down the line (as is the case now with Disney), Fox won't still be prepared to dump them and entertain offers from someone else who makes an even bigger and more attractive bid?

And if Disney do go bigger and outbid Comcast and Fox then goes with them, what happens if Comcast make yet another counter offer? Will Fox change their minds again and keep flip flopping every time someone ups their bid?

I can see this could be a never ending cycle between Comcast and Disney with a conversation going like this:

Comcast: "Let's see you match this. If you want Fox, then up your bid."

Disney: "Oh we can do this all day if we wanted to."

Comcast: "Fine. Then up your bid."

Disney: "No. Up yours."

Those are good points, and anything is possible, but realistically, Comcast and Disney are the two companies that have both the resources and interest, and anybody who might have even thought of getting involved previously, would likely be scared away by the prices this will hit once the bidding war starts.

But you also touch on another point which is: While the Fox board and shareholders want to get as much as possible for the assets and have to be pleased with the current situation, they also want to be done with this at some point and not allow it to drag on forever. And that sentiment works in Disney's favor. Not only will the board be more confident that Disney will actually come through with what they promise, but the process is already well underway. And while this ruling makes it more likely that a Comcast buy would pass DOJ scrutiny, Comcast is still more of a risk and a longer-term prospect than Disney.

The certainty and shorter time-frame for Disney vs. the larger risk and longer time-frame for Comcast (along with myriad other factors) allows Disney to win with a lower bid.