The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Detective Conan]

I think 65B (+ debt) for Fox is already overpaying. 50B + debt sounds about right. If Comcast takes it up to 85B + debt, then Iger and Disney better walk away. Can't even blame them if they chose to walk away now.

if Roberts wants to plunge his company into insurmountable debt in order overpay for Fox then fine but me suspects the Mouse may be more strategically smarter and make the arguement that a Comcast merger would take longer to get approval since it’s likely the DOJ would sue to block the merger and a DOJ anti-trust expert said the Disney deal is “doable.”

Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying that automatically means Disney will out-bid Comcast but Disney already has an advantage over Kabletown. It’s gonna get ugly but I still have faith Disney will defeat Comcast(It won’t be easy though).

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I'm trying not to be either, Willie! This thing has gone so far- gotten so much traction- that I'm just not sure if I can see Comcast's version of "the snap". Keep hope alive!

At this moment, nothing has happened we couldn’t see a month ago. The next few days will be interesting, but there’s no reason to panic... yet.

 

[WeaponXCII]

That's what Tony Stark would do. If Comcast were to buy Fox, Stark would've bought Comcast. Just because.

Can Disney buy Comcast?

 

[Spiderine]

So Comcast came with the "straight cash homie" approach. I really hate that this may just prolong this deal or prevent it altogether. I know there are bigger things at play here but I wish Disney could just walk away with those rights since thats all I want. Universal can make Die Hardest: John McClane in the Jungles of Africa for all I care.

 

[Dark Raven]

Can't Marvel have some kind of first option to buy the Marvel rights from Fox?

 

[ADollarADay]

Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX, FOXA) has acknowledged receivingComcast's (NASDAQ:CMCSA) $65B offer for its media assets, and said it hasn't made a determination yet whether to postpone or adjourn a July 10 special meeting to vote on its similar $52.4B agreement with Disney (NYSEIS).

In accordance with its fiduciary duties, Fox's board says it will carefully review the new offer.

In more details from Comcast's offer: It's a little circumspect about Hulu, the streaming service it co-owns with Fox, Disney and Time Warner (NYSE:TWX). But sources say Comcast will divest Fox's stake in the service if that's what it takes to get the deal done, meaning it wouldn't take over majority control of Hulu.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3363802-fox-acknowledges-comcast-offer-deal-details

 

[Kuwolski]

Hey, you gotta respect it at least from a stone cold business move. It may not be the result we want, but Comcast is dropping the hammer like a boss.

 

[Zarex]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3363802-fox-acknowledges-comcast-offer-deal-details

Shows how little we know about what Iger and Roberts REALLY want. I would have had Hulu near the top of Kabletown's wish list and the RSNs high on the Mouse's.

 

[Chance Jackson]

if Roberts wants to plunge his company his company in insurmountable debt in order overpay for Fox than fine but me suspects the Mouse may be more strategically smarter and make the arguement that a Comcast merger would take longer to get approval since it’s likely the DOJ would sue to block the merger and a DOJ anti-trust expert said the Disney deal is “doable.”

Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying that automatically means Disney will out-bid Comcast but Disney already has an advantage over Kabletown. It’s gonna get ugly but I still have faith Disney will defeat Comcast(It won’t be easy though).

I understood that reference

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Comcast the kind of company to put the Benjamin on the top of the stack

 

[Dark Raven]

What do Comcast primarily want? Is it Sky? Or is it Fox studios?

Or maybe they mainly want the Marvel rights?

 

[Detective Conan]

Can't Marvel have some kind of first option to buy the Marvel rights from Fox?

Nope. These deals were made without the the lack of foresight in the 90’s since at the time they were made Marvel wasn’t making their own movies and were desperate for any money they could get.

 

[Spiderine]

Disney could certainly sweeten the pot if need be but their initial offer is still a strong one. They are still covering the Fox debt plus the shares which basically puts it over 13 bil along with the 52 bil. Disney is also a company on the upswing and brighter future. So much more to gain. Maybe Disney throw a little more sugar on top but they are ok.

 

[Detective Conan]

What do Comcast primarily want? Is it Sky? Or is it Fox studios?

Or maybe they mainly want the Marvel rights?

They want both. But I think Roberts would be more than satisfied with just getting Sky if Iger let’s it go.

 

[Docker2.0]

Can't Marvel have some kind of first option to buy the Marvel rights from Fox?

That's what I'm saying. Why not just buy them for like $2B. It's not like they won't get the money back. Same thing with Hulk and Namor, but for maybe like $100M. It's not like they don't have the money.

 

[Dark Raven]

That's what I'm saying. Why not just buy them for like $2B. It's not like they won't get the money back. Same thing with Hulk and Namor, but for maybe like $100M. It's not like they don't have the money.

$2B is all the worldwide profits of Infinity War.

They want both. But I think Roberts would be more than satisfied with just getting Sky if Iger let’s it go.

I thought Iger said he would be willing to let Sky go if it would get the deal done. Don't know if he's walked back from that position since.

 

[Detective Conan]

Comcast Hasn't Out-Foxed Disney Yet

Here’s the best point in the article.

All that said, are you willing to bet that Comcast, the biggest internet provider in the U.S., will skirt by regulators, and under a capricious administration and president who once said he’d seek to break up Comcast/NBCUniversal? I don’t want to make this a debate about whether President Trump’s personal ax-grinding is making its way into regulatory affairs because that trivializes an important conversation about how much power America’s handful of media, telecommunications and technology giants should have. My point is that it seems awfully risky to assume a Comcast-Fox or Comcast-Disney merger is a slam dunk. One would think the DOJ would be better prepared in the next go-round.

 

[Detective Conan]

$2B is all the worldwide profits of Infinity War.



I thought Iger said he would be willing to let Sky go if it would get the deal done. Don't know if he's walked back from that position since.

I don’t ever remember him saying that. Maybe I missed that.

 

[MasterCat]

Shows how little we know about what Iger and Roberts REALLY want. I would have had Hulu near the top of Kabletown's wish list and the RSNs high on the Mouse's.

Oh, Comcast would LOVE to own 60% of Hulu. Then they'd just wait with baited breath for the Republican Congress to abolish net neutrality so you have to pay extra to watch Netflix or Amazon Prime. The DOJ knows that and will do everything it can to stop it. The DOJ is executive branch and Trump is on the record as wanting to trust-bust Comcast.
Disney/21st Century Fox would probably sail past the DOJ because it's not a cable company.
There's an outside chance that Disney will come out of this with 60% control of Hulu but no Fox content for streaming/the MCU.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

WRT the rights, we're not even close to that point yet, but if the bidding gets to a certain point, I can imagine Disney saying to Comcast: "Look, what we really want is X,Y and Z. If you'll agree to sell us those components, we'll pay you $X and also give you A,B and C and we'll bow out."

Universal doesn't have any particular interest in making X-Men and FF films, and they're currently on the hook for the 1.5 billion break up fee. That's free money for Disney and anything that can reduce Comcast's cash outlay will be interesting to them. (with the real leverage being that Disney won't continue to drive the price up by increasing their bid).

The FF and X-Men rights don't have a huge monetary value compared to some of the other assets, but they have enough symbolic value that if Disney can at least get them, it won't feel like so much of a 'loss' to fans and shareholders.

 

[Dark Raven]

I don’t ever remember him saying that. Maybe I missed that.

I can't find the original article or possible tweet, but here is something along the same lines:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-could-give-up-sky-get-fox-assets-1110153

But I know Iger has also said he wouldn't let go of Sky, so who knows exactly what his intentions are.

 

[The Infernal]

We can only hope that Iger views the X-men and FF with some amount of priority. I mean given the mcu's success and most recently Infinity War's, I could imagine he could see the potential of these properties back with Marvel.

 

[MasterCat]

Universal doesn't have any particular interest in making X-Men and FF films, and they're currently on the hook for the 1.5 billion break up fee. That's free money for Disney and anything that can reduce Comcast's cash outlay will be interesting to them. (with the real leverage being that Disney won't continue to drive the price up by increasing their bid).

The FF and X-Men rights don't have a huge monetary value compared to some of the other assets, but they have enough symbolic value that if Disney can at least get them, it won't feel like so much of a 'loss' to fans and shareholders.

The X-Men & FF aren't worthy $1.5 billion dollars. Iger has a fiduciary duty to the shareholders to take cash instead.
Fantastic Four especially is worth a pittance at this point. Fox let the Daredevil franchise revert to Marvel after two disappointing movies, and the FF are on their third.

 

[Dark Raven]

The X-Men & FF aren't worthy $1.5 billion dollars. Iger has a fiduciary duty to the shareholders to take cash instead.
Fantastic Four especially is worth a pittance at this point. Fox let the Daredevil franchise revert to Marvel after two disappointing movies, and the FF are on their third.

But FF could be gold in Marvel's hands. It's only a pittance and trash in Fox's or anyone else's hands but far more valuable if Marvel were to get their hands on it. It's value is not in what it is but about who owns it.

 

[MasterCat]

But FF could be gold in Marvel's hands. It's only a pittance and trash in Fox's or anyone else's hands but far more valuable if Marvel were to get their hands on it. It's value is not in what it is but about who owns it.

"This is worth $1.5 billion to you and only you. In anyone else's hands it's unlikely to ever turn a profit, but to YOU it's $1.5+ billion profit, so please accept it instead of $1.5 billion cash." is exactly what I'd say if I was the CEO of Comcast, yes.
And if Iger bought that line, shareholders would beat him like Jack's mother for selling a healthy cow for three beans. Heck, he'd be stupider than Jack because the beans really were magic, while the FF film rights have a cash value of roughly $0 because of the Daredevil and Ghost Rider precedents.